In Honor of Gabe, I Present My UFC On FX 4 Plays

[Vitooch]

...with a little Euro cup, and NBA Finals action

2 Team Parlay
				Win	6/5/12 8:30pm NBA Basketball 720 Miami Heat 1st Half -250* vs Boston Celtics
				Pending	6/22/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Sam Stout -310* vs Spencer Fishe

[Vitooch]

Stout has dropped a few decisions of late, and also edged some in mainly technical kickboxing matches. Stout and Fisher have had two close wars, but age will probably be the biggest factor in who wins the rubber match. While Stout hasn't blown me away of late (besides that spectacular Edwards knockout), he has remained consistently average. On the contrary, Fisher has tanked of late against a similar level of competition. I will take Stout's average, yet consistent output over Fisher's regressive output. The UFC have remained loyal to Fisher, who consistently brings it, but I'm afraid this may be a generous courtesy fight for Fisher.

[Vitooch]

Let me admit that I have a very surface knowledge of international soccer, but I want some more money to bet on MMA so **** it....

2 Team Parlay
				Pending	6/14/12 9:00pm NBA Basketball 504 Oklahoma City Thunder -230* vs Miami Heat
				Win	6/13/12 12:00pm International Soccer 301 Portugal (UEFA Euro) pk -285*vs Denmark (UEFA Euro)

2 Team Parlay
				Pending	6/14/12 12:00pm International Soccer 352 Italy (UEFA Euro) +½ -290* vs Croatia (UEFA Euro)
				Pending	6/14/12 2:45pm International Soccer 362 Spain (UEFA Euro) -1 -250* vs Ireland (UEFA Euro)

More plays to come...I have my eye on another dog play. Feeling good about this play, I mean Sean Pierson good

[Vitooch]

Alright boys, here's a few plays to get your "feet wet", as they say...

Pending	6/22/12 10:30pm Props Fighting 1041 Maynard wins by TKO/KO +220* vs Any other result

Pending

6/22/12 10:00pm Props Fighting 1133 Stout wins by TKO/KO +360* vs Any other result

I think Maynard possesses the power to rock Guida and finish him. I may throw Maynard straight up in a parlay, but for now I will take this prop. I also think Stout can land a sharp combo and finish the aging Fisher. Fisher just doesn't have the youthful exuberance and durability he once had, and he may fold if Stout's kickboxing is too overwhelming. Already have Stout straight up in a parlay, so I will profit 1 unit if he wins by decision and profit big if he finishes Fisher.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Wait....

did Gabe die??

The mob actually cut off his little yellow / brown / white Armenian pecker or what???

Hope you're still hanging slightly to the left, Gabe!!!

[Imsmarterthanu]

Chuck Norris is beating Gabe to a bloody pulp right now



he's even got his goons beating up gabes grandma

[Vitooch]

3 Team Parlay
				Pending	6/21/12 9:00pm NBA Basketball 509 Oklahoma City Thunder +9½ -290* vs Miami Heat
				Pending	6/21/12 2:45pm International Soccer 101 Portugal (UEFA Euro) pk -395* vs Czech Republic (UEFA Euro)
				Pending	6/22/12 6:30pm UFC Fighting 1802 Nick Catone -245* vs Chris Camozzi

[fosho14]

I think Maynard possesses the power to rock Guida and finish him.

Guida has never been KO'd and Maynard is predominantly a decision fighter. The last time he got a knock out was 5 years ago against a can in Joe Veres. It is very unlikely that he'll put away guida.

[Vitooch]

Frankie Edgar has never been KO'd before, but he came extremely close to getting finished by Gray in their second fight. Gray has grown more and more confident in his striking, as seen in both of his fights against Edgar and his fight against Diaz. I think Gray will want to keep this fight standing and try to take out Guida, and use his wrestling only if it is necessary.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Vidouche what price did you get on Maynard? I'm with you on that play for the right price.

[PunisherIND]

Vidouche what price did you get on Maynard? I'm with you on that play for the right price.

lol @ vidouche.. thats a keeper.

[fosho14]

Frankie Edgar has never been KO'd before, but he came extremely close to getting finished by Gray in their second fight. Gray has grown more and more confident in his striking, as seen in both of his fights against Edgar and his fight against Diaz. I think Gray will want to keep this fight standing and try to take out Guida, and use his wrestling only if it is necessary.

Fair points. I think progression and development of fighters like we've recently seen in Zombie and Nate Diaz are important cautionary examples to remind us not to sleep on fighter evolution. That said, I kind of share Luca Fury's belief that it's hard to make educated decisions based on speculation, and if there's no evidence to support a claim, then it's probably not worth risking money for. Might need to stay away from this fight completely due to the bad price on maynard SU, and the variables with Guida's cardio advantage in a 5 round fight. GL though bud.

[Vitooch]

Vidouche what price did you get on Maynard? I'm with you on that play for the right price.

+220 but it has since moved up to +240

[Vitooch]

Fair points. I think progression and development of fighters like we've recently seen in Zombie and Nate Diaz are important cautionary examples to remind us not to sleep on fighter evolution. That said, I kind of share Luca Fury's belief that it's hard to make educated decisions based on speculation, and if there's no evidence to support a claim, then it's probably not worth risking money for. Might need to stay away from this fight completely due to the bad price on maynard SU, and the variables with Guida's cardio advantage in a 5 round fight. GL though bud.

I believe there is evidence to support this claim. I'm taking into account Maynard's confidence in his striking and his heavy-handedness as shown against a much better striker in Edgar. We haven't seen Maynard or Guida fight pure wrestlers, usually when they are in trouble striking the resort to their wrestling. I expect their wrestling with cancel out, especially early on, like Maynard/Edgar, and that Maynard will catch Guida. Wouldn't say Guida's chin is granite, he's gotten caught and rocked badly. His striking is just not very good. That type of crazy head bobbing may work against Takanori Gomi, who's striking against anyone that utilizes a decent jab, footwork or head movement is null, but against a headhunter like Gray, he will be in trouble.

[Vitooch]

Maynard wins in Round 1 at +475 and Round 2 at +675

[fosho14]

I believe there is evidence to support this claim. I'm taking into account Maynard's confidence in his striking and his heavy-handedness as shown against a much better striker in Edgar. We haven't seen Maynard or Guida fight pure wrestlers. I expect their wrestling with cancel out, especially early on, like Maynard/Edgar, and Maynard catching Guida. Wouldn't say Guida's chin is granite, he's gotten caught and rocked badly. His striking is just not very good. That type of crazy head bobbing may work against Takanori Gomi, who's striking against anyone that utilizes a decent jab, footwork or head movement is null, but against a headhunter like Gray, he will be in trouble.

Nice evaluation, you've talked me out of any kind of maynard by decision play I may of placed. Now I'm just gonna stay away completely.

[PunisherIND]

fedor/rizzo event streaming right now

[Vitooch]

I hate fighter A wins by decision props. I would stay away from those unless you are hedging. I don't oppose to a Maynard straight up play in a parlay, but I would pick my spots a bit more carefully than that.

[Vitooch]

Ok boys first big play for me this weekend.

6/22/12 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1401 Ricardo Lamas +180* vs Hatsu Hioki

[Vitooch]

Not yet buying into Hioki being the deserving number one contender just yet. Lamas brings a skillset that will give the grappling based Hioki a fit. Lamas will clearly be the stronger, more athletic fighter with a striking advantage. Hioki looked much better against Bart after a disappointing performance against a mediocre fighter in Roop, but Lamas will be a much tougher stylistic matchup for Hioki. Hioki's main method of taking his opponents down is clinching them against the cage and working for trips. This ugly strategy of dragging your opponents down may work for less experienced grapplers, but a strong wrestler who is very strong in the clinch like Lamas will reverse Hioki's body lock attempts and find himself implementing his own greco-roman against the cage. While Lamas will probably try to stay far from the ground as possible against Hioki, he may stall Mike Pierce style against the cage and secure the occassional late takedown to seal rounds. Also, the heavy handed Lamas possesses a striking advantage on the feet. He may even be able to catch Hioki and finish him

[Vitooch]

[Vitooch]

Ok so feeling very good about Lamas. Got him at good value at +180, the line hasn't gotten back to +180 on 5Dimes yet. I have a bunch of dog leans, but here is one of my other strong plays. I've had my eye on this play for a while...

6/22/12 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 TJ Waldburger +215* vs Brian Ebersole

This fight is a another great example of how more careful thought and some research is necessary before making a play on an initial lean. Ebersole seems like an easy pick here. Beat Chris Lytle, looked great against Hallaman, beat a great grappler in Claude Patrick. However, if we take into account the fact that Chris Lytle fought Ebersole a few weeks after major knee surgery, perhaps Ebersole's stock dropped a little. As for the Hallman fight, as awesome as Ebersole's GnP finish was, let us not forget the fact that Hallman was bale to get Ebersole's back very quickly and easily before the finish. Hallman showed aggression in trying to get the back after a failed shoot takedown , and succeeded fairly easily in getting the back. This type of aggression in the grappling department seems to be the staple of Waldburger's game. He took a risk in a scramble against Jake Hecht and succeeded with a beautiful armbar. He was also very aggressive off his back against Mike Stumpt, constantly throwing up armbar subs and eventually locked in a triangle after a beautiful chain sub. This type of aggressiveness in the grappling department could overwhelm the albeit savvy vet, who may be too confident and not cautious enough, and lead himself into some tough positions on the ground against a submission specialist.

But Waldburger isn't all submissions and BJJ, he also possesses some underrated wrestling. Ebersole's wrestling is solid, but the younger, stronger and more athletic Waldburger should be able to handle Ebersole's solid but not necessarily elite wrestling. Waldburger's wrestling has been solid in all his fights, except against an elite wrestler in Hendricks.

While we haven't seen too much of Waldburger's striking, I would take a knockout loss to Hendricks with a grain of salt. Waldburger is capable on his fight and should stay competitive against Ebersole if the fight stays standing.

[Imsmarterthanu]

Total people following Vidouche's plays : 0

[Crassus]

Not yet buying into Hioki being the deserving number one contender just yet. Lamas brings a skillset that will give the grappling based Hioki a fit. Lamas will clearly be the stronger, more athletic fighter with a striking advantage. Hioki looked much better against Bart after a disappointing performance against a mediocre fighter in Roop, but Lamas will be a much tougher stylistic matchup for Hioki. Hioki's main method of taking his opponents down is clinching them against the cage and working for trips. This ugly strategy of dragging your opponents down may work for less experienced grapplers, but a strong wrestler who is very strong in the clinch like Lamas will reverse Hioki's body lock attempts and find himself implementing his own greco-roman against the cage. While Lamas will probably try to stay far from the ground as possible against Hioki, he may stall Mike Pierce style against the cage and secure the occassional late takedown to seal rounds. Also, the heavy handed Lamas possesses a striking advantage on the feet. He may even be able to catch Hioki and finish him

Someone needs to watch Hioki's sengoku run.

[gabe]

I'm a big TJ Waldburger fan and normally would come in my pants at the thought of getting him as such a big dog, but I really think Ebersole is too smart and too skilled to lose this match.

[Vitooch]

6/22/12 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Steven Siler +110*vs Joey Gambino

6/22/12 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1301 Cub Swanson +175* vs Ross Pearson

6/22/12 5:00pm UFC Fighting 1951 Ken Stone +135* vs Dustin Pague

2 Team Parlay
6/22/12 2:45pm International Soccer 202 Germany (UEFA Euro) -308* vs Greece
6/22/12 6:30pm UFC Fighting 1802 Nick Catone -225* vs Chris Camozzi

[Vitooch]

Someone needs to watch Hioki's sengoku run.

What is your point? I'm not denying Hioki is a good fighter, but I think Lamas has the skillset to beat him. You cannot deny that Hioki looked disappointing against a mediocre Roop.

[Crassus]

What is your point? I'm not denying Hioki is a good fighter, but I think Lamas has the skillset to beat him. You cannot deny that Hioki looked disappointing against a mediocre Roop.

One disappointing fight, cmon. The guys' a beast. I'd cap him at -300 so I'm super happy that's he's only like -220

EDIT: -175 on 5D, definitely gonna jump on that in a bit!

[gabe]

What is your point? I'm not denying Hioki is a good fighter, but I think Lamas has the skillset to beat him. You cannot deny that Hioki looked disappointing against a mediocre Roop.

That was my reasoning for betting Bart P, but Hioki was a completely dif fighter in that fight. If the Hioki from UFC 144 shows up, Lamas might be in big trouble. I like Lamas. I'm avoiding this fight.

[Vitooch]

Stone

[Imsmarterthanu]

damn what a shitty ref

[Imsmarterthanu]

Matt Brown is a beast

[Vitooch]

6/22/12 7:30pm Props Fighting 1609 Siler wins inside distance +383* vs Not Siler inside distance

Really liking Siler here. Gambino found success in the more local fighting circuits but his hyper-aggressive style will prove his downfall. Siler isn't the most athletic or strongest fighter but he has proven he is game against tough opponents. He will handle the early onslaught of Gambino and should either win by decision or hopefully a submission in the 2nd or 3rd round. Don't think Gambino should be a slight fave at all.

[Vitooch]

That one was too easy

[Vitooch]

I hate Anik. He gives me the douche chills.