i like Guida for +265

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  • snufflyjoe
    SBR Sharp
    • 07-26-11
    • 476

    #1
    i like Guida for +265
    I think this fight is a lot closer than the odds suggest. This is a five round fight and Gray is going against a hard to stop cardio machine in Guida.

    I think that gray may take the first 2 rounds but will fade with Guida taking the last three.

    This is the first 5 round fight Guida has had since training at Jacksons and I think that Guida/jackson will be able to exploit Guidas cardio advantage and get a decision.

    I think guida might do try to something similair to the gomi fight lots of confusing movement.

    Gray is coming off a devastating title shot ko loss and has changed camps.

    Guida by cardio
  • Imsmarterthanu
    SBR MVP
    • 05-02-12
    • 1878

    #2
    you may be right sir
    Comment
    • sirchadwick1
      SBR MVP
      • 06-02-10
      • 1375

      #3
      If Gray tries to go all out early, he could likely fade in the 3rd... leaving an opening for Guida. I doubt Guida can finish, but he could always lock in a RNC...and we know he's always game and has a solid chin. I think you can wait a little on the price though - He's +290 at 5d right now and I wouldn't be surprised to see him at +325 by fight night/reduced. Too many out there think Gray has this in the bag. I'll take Guida's cardio, pace, and heart anyday w/ these odds.
      Comment
      • Vaughany
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 03-07-10
        • 45563

        #4
        yeah +265 terrible odds
        Comment
        • BIGDAY
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 02-17-10
          • 48245

          #5
          I really dont see where Guida has an advantage.

          Odds are correct imo
          Comment
          • DeFactoCrippler
            SBR MVP
            • 03-30-12
            • 2603

            #6
            Originally posted by BIGDAY
            I really dont see where Guida has an advantage.

            Odds are correct imo
            I would have to agree. But these guys are saying guida has the edge in cardio. Maynard has only lost one time which was somewhat of a comeback. Maynard has grappled for 3 straight rounds many fights, thats a test of cardio if any.
            Comment
            • bjpenn85
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 02-17-11
              • 5059

              #7
              the odds are not correct bigday. Gray is waaaaaaaaaaaay overvalued. Guida has vastly improved lately! Breaking dos anjos jaw looks sweeter now than ever + he gave bendo real problems at times.
              Comment
              • DeFactoCrippler
                SBR MVP
                • 03-30-12
                • 2603

                #8
                Originally posted by bjpenn85
                the odds are not correct bigday. Gray is waaaaaaaaaaaay overvalued. Guida has vastly improved lately! Breaking dos anjos jaw looks sweeter now than ever + he gave bendo real problems at times.
                What area do you feel he is stronger than Maynard?
                Comment
                • v1y
                  SBR MVP
                  • 05-02-11
                  • 1138

                  #9
                  if guida wins it's because gray gasses hard.

                  with that said... i just see gray dominating.
                  Comment
                  • bjpenn85
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 02-17-11
                    • 5059

                    #10
                    Standing up, this fight is going to be quite close, the difference standing up, will probably be guidas footwork. Even dos anjos, that we already now is very quick and has excellent kickboxing struggled with finding the range. Guida is constantly moving around and understandably, that frustrates a lot of fighters. Gomi looked like bambi on ice with guida. Its the way hes fighting, and his energy level that creates problems, not necessarily that he is better than maynard in one specific area. Guida has also a solid bjj game that he isnt afraid to use. I dont think guida can submit maynard in early rounds, but his bjj may come into play if hes able to tire out maynard in later round and catch him. Guida is in the top 10 in the ufc lightweight division...he shouldnt be +300 against anyone, even a rematch between henderson.
                    Comment
                    • Oblivian
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 01-27-12
                      • 163

                      #11
                      I will end up playing Guida small. Guida looked much better against Bendo than I expected. He's really impressed me in his recent fights. If he keeps his movement up, I can see Gray looking very stiff in the standup.
                      Comment
                      • Kaladarus
                        SBR MVP
                        • 11-11-09
                        • 1876

                        #12
                        Lay the price on Gray and count your money after the fight.
                        Comment
                        • Crassus
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-08-12
                          • 1538

                          #13
                          Maynard is awesome parlay potential.
                          Comment
                          • gabe
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 09-12-11
                            • 7405

                            #14
                            Originally posted by bjpenn85
                            Standing up, this fight is going to be quite close, the difference standing up, will probably be guidas footwork. Even dos anjos, that we already now is very quick and has excellent kickboxing struggled with finding the range. Guida is constantly moving around and understandably, that frustrates a lot of fighters. Gomi looked like bambi on ice with guida. Its the way hes fighting, and his energy level that creates problems, not necessarily that he is better than maynard in one specific area. Guida has also a solid bjj game that he isnt afraid to use. I dont think guida can submit maynard in early rounds, but his bjj may come into play if hes able to tire out maynard in later round and catch him. Guida is in the top 10 in the ufc lightweight division...he shouldnt be +300 against anyone, even a rematch between henderson.
                            Comment
                            • Rubber Guard
                              SBR MVP
                              • 06-22-11
                              • 1550

                              #15
                              Guida may be the play by him having a non-stop motor and maybe stealing a decision.

                              But he really doesn't do anything good other than work hard and have cardio.

                              I mean Frankie is twice the striker....5x the striker Guida is. And Maynard found his chin. Frankie is quicker, has better boxing, and better footwork than Guida. Guida isn't going to take Maynard down either.

                              I'm not saying Maynard is a world class striker. But his boxing is decent. And if he wants...he can probably take Guida down. When has Guida ever worked someone striking? He seems to win vs. guys he should beat and maybe pull out a crappy win over a guy who can't defend his TD (Pettis).

                              I wouldn't lay the juice on Maynard. But it is hard to back Guida vs. a top 5 guy.
                              Comment
                              • Beelzebubzy
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 06-06-11
                                • 6995

                                #16
                                I thikn Guida is a decent play at +300 or close.

                                Wasnt he plus 300 versus Sanchez? I scored that fight a draw. The only concern I have is that Guida has not defeated a stict wrestler in the UFC but as others have mentioned Gray is not Coutures anymore, he is just jumping around at camps.

                                I also think the size difference in this fight is huge. Gray is a big 155er whereas Clay could easily make 145
                                Comment
                                • Rubber Guard
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 06-22-11
                                  • 1550

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Beelzebubzy
                                  I thikn Guida is a decent play at +300 or close.

                                  Wasnt he plus 300 versus Sanchez? I scored that fight a draw. The only concern I have is that Guida has not defeated a stict wrestler in the UFC but as others have mentioned Gray is not Coutures anymore, he is just jumping around at camps.

                                  I also think the size difference in this fight is huge. Gray is a big 155er whereas Clay could easily make 145
                                  I think the camp switch is good for him. How many great fighters are coming out of Xtreme Couture? Maynard is training at AKA and has trained with Aldo's team. Great move by him. He should have more tools then he ever has.
                                  Comment
                                  • Crassus
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-08-12
                                    • 1538

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Rubber Guard
                                    I think the camp switch is good for him. How many great fighters are coming out of Xtreme Couture? Maynard is training at AKA and has trained with Aldo's team. Great move by him. He should have more tools then he ever has.
                                    Michael Chandler's an amazing prospect and arguably top ten after that Alvarez fight.
                                    Comment
                                    • Rubber Guard
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 06-22-11
                                      • 1550

                                      #19
                                      Yea...but he's a wrestler. Maynard wasn't expanding his game at Couture's Gym.

                                      Doesn't compare to the guys AKA has. Or all the quick skilled smaller guys at Aldo's camp.
                                      Comment
                                      • Crassus
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-08-12
                                        • 1538

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Rubber Guard
                                        Yea...but he's a wrestler. Maynard wasn't expanding his game at Couture's Gym.

                                        Doesn't compare to the guys AKA has. Or all the quick skilled smaller guys at Aldo's camp.
                                        Fair nuff I spose.
                                        Comment
                                        • BIGDAY
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 02-17-10
                                          • 48245

                                          #21
                                          Well... I hope you all start SLAMMING the FUKK outa Guida so I can make Maynard a MAX 5Unit MMA Winner at -150

                                          Comment
                                          • MMAbetMASTA
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 05-24-11
                                            • 1931

                                            #22
                                            I don't, but then again I wouldn't pay that juice for gray... no play for me.
                                            Comment
                                            • darko3131
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 03-16-08
                                              • 469

                                              #23
                                              I'm thinkng the same thing as OP. Should be an all out war. I trust Clay's gas tank more in a 5 round fight and the odds are right for a close dec.

                                              If I don't pull the trigger on a prefight bet, I do think this is the perfect fight for LIVE IN fight betting!
                                              Comment
                                              • snufflyjoe
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 07-26-11
                                                • 476

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Vaughany
                                                yeah +265 terrible odds
                                                yep a lot better lines with other bookies mine is pretty shit
                                                Comment
                                                • snufflyjoe
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 07-26-11
                                                  • 476

                                                  #25
                                                  dont know about slamming the **** out of it, but laying the juice on any heavily favoured fighter after a title shot loss is never a good idea imo.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • snufflyjoe
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 07-26-11
                                                    • 476

                                                    #26
                                                    guida by decision is +464 and not maynard in the distance is -213
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Crassus
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 01-08-12
                                                      • 1538

                                                      #27
                                                      you're suggesting to bet against this man. Shame on you all.

                                                      Comment
                                                      • Vitooch
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 09-26-11
                                                        • 3470

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by snufflyjoe
                                                        dont know about slamming the **** out of it, but laying the juice on any heavily favoured fighter after a title shot loss is never a good idea imo.
                                                        Never a good idea? Cain and Chael immediately come to mind
                                                        Comment
                                                        • snufflyjoe
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 07-26-11
                                                          • 476

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Vitooch
                                                          Never a good idea? Cain and Chael immediately come to mind
                                                          it goes both ways (hominick, rampage, machida) but i am catious of fighters coming off a title loss i think losing your title shot really messes a lot of fighters up and they dont have the same focus .


                                                          Gray could be fine and really motivated to get another shot and win but i wouldnt bet on that at -345.

                                                          Title shot loss aside i still like Guida in this fight i think although gray has a lot of advantages these will be negated by guidas style.

                                                          i think this fight will be close if it goes to decision and maybe guida may also be able catch a sub.

                                                          Guida at anything over +250 is a good bet imo
                                                          Comment
                                                          • snufflyjoe
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 07-26-11
                                                            • 476

                                                            #30
                                                            Get on this fellas
                                                            Comment
                                                            • GunShard
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 03-05-10
                                                              • 10031

                                                              #31
                                                              I noticed that both Maynard and Guida has strong striking defense and strong takedown defense statistically.
                                                              I believe this fight will end in a decision.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Joe_Shabadoo
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 09-17-09
                                                                • 607

                                                                #32
                                                                I like it.

                                                                I'll take a stab at Guida ITD [+553] at 5D, too.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • snufflyjoe
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 07-26-11
                                                                  • 476

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Joe_Shabadoo
                                                                  I like it.

                                                                  I'll take a stab at Guida ITD [+553] at 5D, too.
                                                                  You might as well put a flyer on guida sotn as well, good luck man
                                                                  Comment
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