Which Dog Has the Best Chance of Upsetting At UFC 141

**sideloaded** · 12-28-11, 12:19 AM

Njokuani

**v1y** · 12-28-11, 12:20 AM

i've got plays on all 3.

2u hettes, 2u njokuani, 1u gamburyan.

hell, i've got 2u diaz, 2u brock, and 1u efrain.

i'm on so many dogs this event.

**Vitooch** · 12-28-11, 12:26 AM

I thought I was the only one leaning Escudero. Not touching Brock/Overeem.

Rogan kept stressing how Diaz's performance against Gomi was the best of his career, but it was against one of his weakest opponents at LW in quite a while. I think people are giving him a better chance than he actually has.

What about Sean Pierson against Stun Gun?

**FindTheLock** · 12-28-11, 01:35 AM

I have no idea why diaz is such a big dog in this one. I don't think he will win, but I wouldn't lay that much juice to bet against him either. It's a diaz or no play in that fight.

**sirchadwick1** · 12-28-11, 07:14 AM

Originally posted by FindTheLock

I have no idea why diaz is such a big dog in this one. I don't think he will win, but I wouldn't lay that much juice to bet against him either. It's a diaz or no play in that fight.

Because the only way he is winning this fight is via sub and he's only been subbed once in his career by Bendo. It's not impossible... but highly unlikely. And Cerrone will tear Diaz up on his feet and will most likely dictate where the fight takes place. I feel he'll easily win on the scorecards and capped him around -350 before the line was released. I've got about $600 (12u) tied up in Cerrone in this fight including straight plays and parlay enders, but I have hedged with Diaz ITD at +600 (2u at $100) to cover myself. I will probably shit myself if Diaz wins via decision as it will kill my night. But I'm confident that won't happen.

I've also got plays on 4 dogs - Manny, Hettes, and Njokuani, and Pierson. If I had to choose one of these with the best shot to win it's got to be Njokuani. His takedown defense has improved and I believe he has better striking than Castillo at this point in his career. Don't count out Pierson either... he could also keep it standing and rock Stun Gun on his feet. At +300, I'll take a shot.

**RaiderNation MMA** · 12-28-11, 07:56 AM

does no one else feel good about hendricks? i dont see fitch dry humping a 2 time national champion for 15 minutes

**sirchadwick1** · 12-28-11, 08:44 AM

Originally posted by RaiderNation MMA

does no one else feel good about hendricks? i dont see fitch dry humping a 2 time national champion for 15 minutes

I forgot that I had a small play on Hendricks as well (1u at +200)... he's got a real good shot. I almost feel as though the Joe and Dana set this up for Fitch to fail... the guy seriously has to be one of the most boring fighters in the upper echelon. If he loses a couple, I'm sure he will be on his way to another org. With that said, he's a decision machine and somehow always finds a way to grind it out so I'd be conservative w/ a play.

Out of the dogs - Hendricks/Manny/Hettes/Njokuani/Pierson - I think at least 2.. if not 3 of these plays hit.

**BIGDAY** · 12-28-11, 09:37 AM

[quote=Vitooch;12959749]
Rogan kept stressing how Diaz's performance against Gomi was the best of his career, but it was against one of his weakest opponents at LW in quite a while. I think people are giving him a better chance than he actually has.

quote]

That was a case of a perfect matchup for Diaz. This upcoming fight the matchup advatages are reversed for Diaz imo.

**BIGDAY** · 12-28-11, 09:39 AM

I like Hendricks at the current price also. He's been a quiet fighter and his footwork is good for a wrestler and I do NOT see Fitch laying on him at all.

**Beelzebubzy** · 12-28-11, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

I like Hendricks at the current price also. He's been a quiet fighter and his footwork is good for a wrestler and I do NOT see Fitch laying on him at all.

for the UFC's sake of new contenders, I hope so.
Money is on Fitch because Hendricks has been taken down alot in MMA and is a small 170er. However, long layoff, surgery, and a weakness shown in his Penn fight, is a recipe for an upset

**Educ8d Degener8** · 12-28-11, 11:21 AM

I like quite a few doggies to bark this event...

Diaz probably my fav of the bunch, and I'm a huge Cerrone fan.

Of the three OP posted -- Manny.

**TheCalculator** · 12-28-11, 12:17 PM

Njokuani -- I like Manny too.

**RaiderNation MMA** · 12-28-11, 06:22 PM

yea the ufc definitively isnt doing fitch any favors here. he has a good chance at losing this fight. and if he losses to a guy like hendricks with no name he free falls to the prelims.

i really really like njokuani man, i think vegas ****** up the odds on that one. but in our favor

loll people have cerrone on the other thread for biggest lock, and diaz on this thread for most likely to win underdog. no one fukn knows at this point

**dww123** · 12-28-11, 07:11 PM

Originally posted by RaiderNation MMA

does no one else feel good about hendricks? i dont see fitch dry humping a 2 time national champion for 15 minutes

MMA evolves so rapidly I think it may have already passed Fitch by. It's like the stock market. You can only employ a type of buy/sell strategy for so long until the market corrects itself and it no longer works. Same with Fitch, he has done the same thing for so long that the market is overdue for a correction. Look at his last fight. He went to a draw with a bloated lightweight who has only beaten one welterweight in his entire career. Fitch is too one dimentional and is lacking in the talent department.

**Kaladarus** · 12-28-11, 07:40 PM

Diaz

**ukgaz** · 12-28-11, 08:03 PM

Really like Hendricks as a fighter. His striking showed great improvements against Pierce but when this match up was announced I thought that Fitch would be to big. Sure Penn took him down but that was a game plan that took him by surprise. For Hendricks I think it is vital he wins the first round because in the second half of the fight that size difference could be key in wearing down JH. I would love to see him drop to 155

The Diaz fight for me depends on Cerrone's game-plan. The smart plan is to make this a kick-boxing contest but I can see him being over aggressive, especially once the talking starts, making this more of a winnable fight for Diaz

**flickavic** · 12-28-11, 08:10 PM

I'm on a lot of dogs too, gamburyan,Pierson,nojuani,assuncao,hette s,Hendricks,Dias,lesnar, I have never played so many dogs on 1 card, just need a couple to hit, still nervousness with so many dogs, all the while doing it doggystyle.

**Pew Pew** · 12-28-11, 10:34 PM

Haven't heard Matyushenko's name. Does he have a good chance to put the upset?

**NunyaBidness** · 12-28-11, 11:25 PM

Originally posted by Pew Pew

Haven't heard Matyushenko's name. Does he have a good chance to put the upset?

I expect big things from this kid.

**Vitooch** · 12-29-11, 12:00 AM

Matty impressed the hell out of me against Brillz. The thing with Gust though is his grappling is very solid, perhaps even underrated (his striking has looked so great we seem to forget about that part of his game). Matty's best chance would be grinding a decision but I'm afraid he will get knocked out, maybe even submitted before he even gets a chance to.

**capone1899** · 12-29-11, 01:40 AM

Hendricks imo. Diaz and Matyushenko are going to get smashed

**Vitooch** · 12-29-11, 02:05 AM

Diaz is a ******* punk with zero intelligence. I hate his guts personally but he's a great fighter to watch. However, I hope he gets SMASHED on Friday by the Cowboy.

**bogbat** · 12-29-11, 02:49 AM

Parlaying every dog on the card 1u to win 18,884,618u

**Educ8d Degener8** · 12-29-11, 11:32 AM

Originally posted by bogbat

Parlaying every dog on the card 1u to win 18,884,618u

That has a 73.6% chance of hitting.

**NunyaBidness** · 12-29-11, 12:39 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

That has a 73.6% chance of hitting.

LOL

**jacktheknife** · 12-29-11, 02:00 PM

Hettes and Lesnar. Manny's a douche, but he's probably a ok bet.

**FindTheLock** · 12-29-11, 02:10 PM

After looking at the open work out videos of cerrone and diaz I retract my comment about diaz being able to win. I agree with some of the others and would also consider it an absolute miracle for diaz to have any sort of a chance to win this fight. I don't think diaz will be able to get the take down before getting his lights turned down low, and a take down is the only shot diaz has because Cerrone is on another level in the stand up.

**TheCalculator** · 12-29-11, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by FindTheLock

After looking at the open work out videos of cerrone and diaz I retract my comment about diaz being able to win. I agree with some of the others and would also consider it an absolute miracle for diaz to have any sort of a chance to win this fight. I don't think diaz will be able to get the take down before getting his lights turned down low, and a take down is the only shot diaz has because Cerrone is on another level in the stand up.

I rank Diaz 8-10 in the division. Cerrone top 4.

**BIGDAY** · 12-29-11, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by FindTheLock

After looking at the open work out videos of cerrone and diaz I retract my comment about diaz being able to win. I agree with some of the others and would also consider it an absolute miracle for diaz to have any sort of a chance to win this fight. I don't think diaz will be able to get the take down before getting his lights turned down low, and a take down is the only shot diaz has because Cerrone is on another level in the stand up.

And Don't underestimate Cerrone's wrestling ability. Imo, he hasn't had to use what I would say is underrated.

GL

**NunyaBidness** · 12-29-11, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by TheCalculator

I rank Diaz 8-10 in the division. Cerrone top 4.

I think you're overestimating both of them.

**PunisherIND** · 12-29-11, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

I think you're overestimating both of them.

depends on whether he meant overall mma or just ufc.

**bogbat** · 12-29-11, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

That has a 73.6% chance of hitting.

**Vrakas** · 12-29-11, 08:32 PM

cerrone will attempt taledowns once he is schooled on the feet.diaz has more muscle and weight now than ever before so i would be surpised if cerrone even gets a takedown.Diaz can win this fight at any point. cerrone on the other hand may get a lucky decision.

**BIGDAY** · 12-29-11, 09:18 PM

Originally posted by Vrakas

cerrone will attempt taledowns once he is schooled on the feet.diaz has more muscle and weight now than ever before so i would be surpised if cerrone even gets a takedown.Diaz can win this fight at any point. cerrone on the other hand may get a lucky decision.

This makes me laugh for some reason.

GL. One of us will hit.