Post your UFC 140 Lock

sirchadwick1 · 12-08-11, 10:14 AM

Bones

Vaughany · 12-08-11, 10:25 AM

No locks but Hominick and Bones are closest thing

Wanna Bet On It? · 12-08-11, 12:33 PM

Lil Nog

Jesus Christ · 12-08-11, 12:41 PM

Mark Bocek

BIGDAY · 12-08-11, 12:44 PM

Got Nothing large.

TheCalculator · 12-08-11, 01:05 PM

Hominick.

proposition joe · 12-08-11, 01:48 PM

Originally posted by Jesus Christ

Mark Bocek

Nik Lentz

proposition joe · 12-08-11, 01:49 PM

But seriously, the best lock is Mir

gabe · 12-08-11, 02:27 PM

Bones and Hamman

v1y · 12-08-11, 02:57 PM

lil nog for me.

vaughny i think hominick's going to win, but i can't be confident in a guy that got choked out by josh grispi.

gabe · 12-08-11, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by proposition joe

Nik Lentz

Originally posted by v1y

vaughny i think hominick's going to win, but i can't be confident in a guy that got choked out by josh grispi.

ReBEL`LiON · 12-08-11, 04:20 PM

Lil Nog -225. Count on him to work his boxing with great TDD.

Hominick is not a great bet @ -500

Jones juice is too steep @ -500. But you'll never get a good price on him.

Mir @ -260 is not worth the value IMO. Will have a harder time with Nog this time around. He's never shown a great gas tank and pace. I know alot of people will be against me on this one.

Beelzebubzy · 12-08-11, 04:20 PM

Grispi's game is much different from KZ. We are all betting that HOminicks TDD and footwork is > KZs takedowns

My pick is
Murrrrr

aggieshawn · 12-08-11, 07:48 PM

Jones. #1 Fighter

MMAbetMASTA · 12-08-11, 08:23 PM

Only play i have right now is on lil nog.... feel like a dumb ass for not getting him at better odds, I paid the juice at -210.

Therefore, I feel rogerio is my 'lock' although anything can happen.

I really can't see hominick losing either.

Spaceman Spiff · 12-08-11, 08:32 PM

Not a lock, but the guy I feel most comfortable betting on is Hominick. Jones and Mir seem solid picks as well.

KushMoney · 12-08-11, 11:43 PM

I would not count out Big Nog or Tito Ortiz

Jon Jones (Promotional Push, Jones must win. Machida is getting paid "Anderson Silva" Money taking this fight)

gabe · 12-09-11, 04:06 AM

Jones went from -450 to -575 within minutes for me. Have to win $250 on him, shoulda put more before the line jumped. Given I do well during the rest of the card, I'll throw in another to win $50 as long as it doesn't go past -600... but I wouldn't be surprised if it goes to -750.

I shoulda maxed it out at the initial -445. It went from -445 to -450 to -475 then back to -450 (and now at -575.) I hit it at all three odds for a combination of to win $250.

CollegeOverUnder · 12-09-11, 05:26 AM

Chan sung Jung

FindTheLock · 12-09-11, 08:06 AM

hopefully machida shocks the world. I would love to see Jones lose, but Mir sticks out to me on this heavily juiced card. Lotta faves that look good with ridiculous juice attached to them. I think Mir will win easily.

v1y · 12-09-11, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Grispi's game is much different from KZ. We are all betting that HOminicks TDD and footwork is > KZs takedowns My pick is Murrrrr

Have you watched hominick/yahya? How can anyone justify a play on hominick above -300 after seeing that.

DDT · 12-09-11, 10:05 AM

Maybe a parlay is in order.........

Jones/Hominick/Mir

JAKEPEAVY21 · 12-09-11, 10:08 AM

Originally posted by DDT

Maybe a parlay is in order.........

Jones/Hominick/Mir

love this parlay..on it as well

Beelzebubzy · 12-09-11, 10:42 AM

Yahya desperately shoots over and over but Hominick has none of it. Yahya finally hops on his back and drags him down. He sinks his arm under Hominick's chin and forces a tapout with a rear naked choke. Yahya was unsuccessful on several early takedowns in the opening seconds but otherwise a very impressive WEC debut for the Brazilian. The official time is 1:19.

Sherdog breakdown

v1y · 12-09-11, 12:40 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Yahya desperately shoots over and over but Hominick has none of it. Yahya finally hops on his back and drags him down. He sinks his arm under Hominick's chin and forces a tapout with a rear naked choke. Yahya was unsuccessful on several early takedowns in the opening seconds but otherwise a very impressive WEC debut for the Brazilian. The official time is 1:19.

Sherdog breakdown

watch it, it's embarrassing for hominick. yahya has the sloppiest takedown attempts ever, gets practically knocked out, and still manages to take hominick's back and chokes him out.

jacktheknife · 12-09-11, 04:13 PM

I think the first fight between Mir and Nog was a best case scenario for Mir, and that the line is based on the same kind of passive, staph infected type of Nog being a nominal expectation for this fight. The Shaub fight showed that he's recognized that he needs to change it up and be more aggressive, plus he knows what to expect now. Mir is still the more likely W, but he's not the dead lock that I worry people are investing huge into.

I'll be going round robin on a few of these medium favorites. Definitely Little Nog, Soszynski, and Attonitto. Guess those would be my "locks".

TheCalculator · 12-09-11, 04:23 PM

Originally posted by v1y

watch it, it's embarrassing for hominick. yahya has the sloppiest takedown attempts ever, gets practically knocked out, and still manages to take hominick's back and chokes him out.

You're watching 4 and a half year old footage to make wagering decisions? I think it's all about who the fighters are RIGHT NOW. Hominick has come along way since then and continues to improve. The man beat ALDO the last 2 rounds of their battle!

The only question mark is the passing of his coach and having a baby this year. Hard to say where he is emotionally.

PunisherIND · 12-09-11, 06:31 PM

This guy has hardly been mentioned this week, but I'll go on the record with John Cholish as my lock. Parlay with Bones, K.Soz, Attonito = +200.

TheCalculator · 12-09-11, 06:37 PM

Lil' Nog is a lock. Tito is off the roids for sure. His bodyfat is up significantly and his muscle mass is down. Jaw muscles have shrunk big time. This means a HUUUUUGE drop in strength and power. Takedowns will be harder. Punches won't hit as hard.

Believe me -- NOBODY has a dramatic body recomposition like this without coming off the gear.

http://www.combatlifestyle.com/pics/view_image.php?id=121601

SIDE NOTE: MANY fighters (NOT all) in the UFC are on the sauce. VERY easy to beat test.

BIGDAY · 12-09-11, 07:34 PM

included him in a few parlays. Tito doesn't look good. He's been semi quiet also.

GL

Originally posted by TheCalculator

Lil' Nog is a lock. Tito is off the roids for sure. His bodyfat is up significantly and his muscle mass is down. Jaw muscles have shrunk big time. This means a HUUUUUGE drop in strength and power. Takedowns will be harder. Punches won't hit as hard.

Believe me -- NOBODY has a dramatic body recomposition like this without coming off the gear.

http://www.combatlifestyle.com/pics/view_image.php?id=121601

SIDE NOTE: MANY fighters (NOT all) in the UFC are on the sauce. VERY easy to beat test.

gabe · 12-09-11, 10:21 PM

on lil nog thanks to calc!

FindTheLock · 12-09-11, 10:45 PM

steroids don't make your jaw get bigger. Growth hormone does though.

MMAbetMASTA · 12-09-11, 11:25 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

This guy has hardly been mentioned this week, but I'll go on the record with John Cholish as my lock. Parlay with Bones, K.Soz, Attonito = +200.

I really like cholish too, just not confident enough in my breakdown to pay over -300 juice, otherwise I'd slam him. GL!

v1y · 12-09-11, 11:43 PM

yea one of my biggest plays ever on lil nog here. 10 units.