Great month for MMA newbies?

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  • DarkfallOnline
    SBR Rookie
    • 11-26-11
    • 20

    #1
    Great month for MMA newbies?
    Greetings! Ive been following the forums for around 3 weeks now , lurking about picking up whatever information I can make use of. First off a big thanks to everyone that contributes to this forum with their picks, opinions and views. Not everything posted I agree with but I do take it into consideration when forming my picks.

    Ive followed MMA casually for around 4-5 years but in the last 2 years I really took interest. This month was the first time I had chosen to bet on MMA. My first bets were very very small and littered across the card , my pick % was OK but I burnt too much on "wishful" bets so things hovered at even. Realising that I wasn't going anywhere and really had no idea how to run an epic bet system like some I've seen posted here, I decided to put down a considerable bet on Renan Barao ( after considerable research online but I would like to see more footage of fighters in the future ), newbie luck it paid?

    Now I had my first win and damn it felt good.

    I kept going with (UFC) cards each weekend Ben Henderson, Dos Santos. Then 139 rolled around, high from my weeks of success I played 3 fights. Story, Shogun, Bonnor. I didn't put too much on Story and Shogun but enough to run a loss for the weekend and taught me a good lesson not to be over enthusiastic betting across too many fights. Without Bonnor I really would have blown it good, and he was initially the only bet I put down but in my lust for more wins I ended up playing more.

    Bellator come up, I already had a good bet sitting on Patricky on the fight after the Renan success. I watched his price slide from "underdog" ( made me laugh TBH ) to favourite. Yes the fight was stopped a tad premature, but I do believe it was inevitable. I placed a last minute ( decent ) bet on Dantas which also paid.

    After looking back at all these fights it come to my realisation that I was rather "lucky" with decent paying odds. Looking at December I feel like November was a really great month for picks. There are a couple of fights that I have some interest, but I don't feel very confident at all. I do like Jason Miller at his price tho.

    Does anyone else agree that November was a good month for picks ( and the fights all round were great! )? Or did I just have some great newbie luck and I should take the money and run?
  • NunyaBidness
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-26-09
    • 9345

    #2
    When your sample size is small, individual events are going to cause big swings in your ROI. When you're betting more on certain bets than your standard bet it's going to matter most of all (Barao). If your Barao bet hadn't paid off, you probably would've slowed your roll, even though it was likely a GREAT BET.

    I also had Patricky, Henderson, Benderson, and Dantas. However, november was the least profitable month for me all year.

    Good luck in December, I like Miller too.
    Comment
    • proposition joe
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 10-06-11
      • 532

      #3
      Keep at it, just make sure not to get too loose with your money just because you're in the green. There have been some gift lines lately, for sure, but that doesn't mean the gifts won't keep coming.
      Comment
      • gabe
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 09-12-11
        • 7405

        #4
        Very profitable month for me, but December looks to be even more profitable...
        Comment
        • v1y
          SBR MVP
          • 05-02-11
          • 1138

          #5
          i still don't think patricky was a rightful favorite, and i would take pellegrino again at even odds.

          i have no doubt he trained hard for that fight, and he could win in a rematch.
          Comment
          • proposition joe
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 10-06-11
            • 532

            #6
            Originally posted by v1y
            i still don't think patricky was a rightful favorite, and i would take pellegrino again at even odds.

            i have no doubt he trained hard for that fight, and he could win in a rematch.
            He got lamped and then retired afterwards. I don't know if there is a more emphatic way for Patricky to have won that one. Plus 135 was a gift.
            Comment
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