Jones vs. Machida @ ufc 140

gabe · 11-22-11, 05:43 PM

Frank Mir is going to win, no question.

Spaceman Spiff · 11-22-11, 06:24 PM

I like Nog as much as the next guy, but I don't see him beating Mir.

He had a hard enough time hitting Schaub without getting tagged, I see Mir dropping him again.

v1y · 11-22-11, 06:44 PM

jones seems unbettable.

can't help but feel like you're throwing money away betting against him, but there's so much juice betting on him.

i'll have a tiny play on machida though, just because i'm a degenerate and need action.

ReBEL`LiON · 11-22-11, 07:36 PM

I have no problem with people backing frank mir. Just like wandy being counted out at +165. I waited for the last minute cuz i knew the money was gonna drop on cung come fight time.

TheCalculator · 11-22-11, 07:40 PM

Originally posted by v1y

jones seems unbettable.

can't help but feel like you're throwing money away betting against him, but there's some much juice betting on him.

i'll have a tiny play on machida though, just because i'm a degenerate and need action.

I would bet Jones BIG against anyone else except Machida. Machida is patient enough -- skilled enough -- and hungry enough to capitalize on any mistake that Jones will make.

There is ONE HOLE in Jones's game -- he likes doing high-risk maneuvers. And so far -- he's been landing with most of it. However... with high risk moves comes high risk possibilities.

I do think Jones will win and I will wait for props to open up. Might be value there. However -- hard to say if this one goes the distance or not. I could easily see it going the distance as both guy will be very, very careful not to make the first mistake.

It's going to be a slow fight -- however for guys that LOVE SKILL VS. SKILL... this is the fight of the year.

KushMoney · 11-22-11, 09:54 PM

Originally posted by TheCalculator

I would bet Jones BIG against anyone else except Machida. Machida is patient enough -- skilled enough -- and hungry enough to capitalize on any mistake that Jones will make.

There is ONE HOLE in Jones's game -- he likes doing high-risk maneuvers. And so far -- he's been landing with most of it. However... with high risk moves comes high risk possibilities.

I do think Jones will win and I will wait for props to open up. Might be value there. However -- hard to say if this one goes the distance or not. I could easily see it going the distance as both guy will be very, very careful not to make the first mistake.

It's going to be a slow fight -- however for guys that LOVE SKILL VS. SKILL... this is the fight of the year.

How many rounds it goes will depend on which Jon Jones shows up and how he decides to approach a very defensive Lyoto Machida. Machida wants his belt back, Jones might not be 100%. Machida on his best night can defeat <100% Jon Jones.

That being said Jon Jones has a good chin and a very big advantage in grappling and if he decides to can use his range power inside the clinch to take Lyoto down and land big strikes from guard, round after round.

Lyoto really wants his belt back though. He's training like a mad man.

FindTheLock · 11-23-11, 05:23 AM

Originally posted by KushMoney

How many rounds it goes will depend on which Jon Jones shows up and how he decides to approach a very defensive Lyoto Machida. Machida wants his belt back, Jones might not be 100%. Machida on his best night can defeat <100% Jon Jones.

That being said Jon Jones has a good chin and a very big advantage in grappling and if he decides to can use his range power inside the clinch to take Lyoto down and land big strikes from guard, round after round.

Lyoto really wants his belt back though. He's training like a mad man.

I don't know where to look for evidence of Jones having a good chin. He has never been hit with anything to test his chin that I can remember off the top of my head. I am curious if you know something I don't about this alleged good chin. Jones has been a monster on offense and has yet to even be hit by anything but lame counter punches that rarely make contact let alone solid impact that would test his chin. I think Jones has a huge size and reach advantage and will most likely win this fight, but Machida is the most interesting match up so far for him, mainly because we might actually see Jones' chin get tested for once.

gabe · 11-23-11, 06:10 AM

Originally posted by ReBEL`LiON

I have no problem with people backing frank mir. Just like wandy being counted out at +165. I waited for the last minute cuz i knew the money was gonna drop on cung come fight time.

You're actually comparing Mir to Cung Le? LOL Wandy vs Le was a coin-flip. Mir's chances are MUCH MUCH greater than a coin-flip lol I would say if they fight 10 times, Mir wins AT LEAST 8 out of 10.

Originally posted by TheCalculator

I would bet Jones BIG against anyone else except Machida. Machida is patient enough -- skilled enough -- and hungry enough to capitalize on any mistake that Jones will make.

There is ONE HOLE in Jones's game -- he likes doing high-risk maneuvers. And so far -- he's been landing with most of it. However... with high risk moves comes high risk possibilities.

I do think Jones will win and I will wait for props to open up. Might be value there. However -- hard to say if this one goes the distance or not. I could easily see it going the distance as both guy will be very, very careful not to make the first mistake.

It's going to be a slow fight -- however for guys that LOVE SKILL VS. SKILL... this is the fight of the year.

Machida isn't gonna be able to touch him. If Shogun couldn't do anything, neither can Machida. Result will be the same, Jon Jones goes on to set record for most light heavyweight title defenses. Getting Jones at -450 against Machida is a STEAL. Jon Jones isn't an aged Randy Couture. Machida won't be able to get close enough to hit him with anything that can knock him out. Only way Jon Jones loses is if he screws up, and he's a guy you can count on to not screw up. He's always very prepared and focused.

sirchadwick1 · 11-23-11, 09:15 AM

I'm a Machida fan, but I think Jones runs through him just like he did Shogun. His size, reach, strength, and athleticism will be enough to get him the win. I can't say for sure that he will finish inside the distance but I don't see Machida outpointing him for a win. Jones is smart enough to know if he's losing a round and I think he can get Machida down after wearing him down a bit. Yes, the juice sucks... but I don't see any LHW taking Jones out at this point in his career. He is ever-improving and already a beast.

Going in big on a Bones + Cerrone parlay - 10u to win 6.43u

caveira · 11-23-11, 10:24 AM

I agree with sirchad. Jones will keep the distance and use his monster reach advantage to apply low kicks (just like Shogun did in the first fight against Lyoto). This will hurt his legs, destroying his gameplan, after that, he will be TD, once it happens, the fight is over.

bjpenn85 · 11-23-11, 11:06 AM

In 2012, the fight for the title may be a match between cerrone and benson, it just shows how insanely unpredictable sport is.

sirchadwick1 · 11-23-11, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

In 2012, the fight for the title may be a match between cerrone and benson, it just shows how insanely unpredictable sport is.

I think you're right on this. It's crazy how many were dismissing the WEC fighters vs UFC vets only to watch them rise to the top of their divisions. Benson outworking Miller, Cerrone rocking and choking out Siver, Pettis getting the dec over a very game Stephens. More exciting fights to come... talk about being stacked!

ReBEL`LiON · 11-23-11, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by gabe

You're actually comparing Mir to Cung Le? LOL Wandy vs Le was a coin-flip. Mir's chances are MUCH MUCH greater than a coin-flip lol I would say if they fight 10 times, Mir wins AT LEAST 8 out of 10.

Machida isn't gonna be able to touch him. If Shogun couldn't do anything, neither can Machida. Result will be the same, Jon Jones goes on to set record for most light heavyweight title defenses. Getting Jones at -450 against Machida is a STEAL. Jon Jones isn't an aged Randy Couture. Machida won't be able to get close enough to hit him with anything that can knock him out. Only way Jon Jones loses is if he screws up, and he's a guy you can count on to not screw up. He's always very prepared and focused.

bro who said anything about comparing le to frank mir? try not to assume things. My point was you guys are counting out Nog to get ran through again. he's going to offer a better fight this time.

but I'm okay with it. Nog is much tougher fighter than frank mir and im counting on that for the victory.

Btw your reasoning seems pretty retarded for breaking down fights. so shogun = machida? get outta here. this is the first fighter in his prime that jones will be fighting. -450 is NOT a steal.

Vaughany · 11-23-11, 05:15 PM

Nog can win it no doubt, but I do feel his only chance is by TKO. I plan to possibly have Mir in a number of parlays and will definitely have Mir KO of the Night at +400 or better hedged with Nogueira KO of the Night. For me it's highly unlikely that Nog subs Mir, and I find it hard to imagine it going to decision. IMO Mir is on another level than Schaub - obviously the better grappler but I also think he's a more dangerous striker all round utilizing more of a Muay thai style (with more kicks, knees and elbows) and also uppercuts which I think is a key weapon against Nog, rather than Schaub's rather limited and predictable jab-jab overhand right approach! Plus and perhaps more pertinently' he has the experience that Schaub didn't have and also wont be fighting Nog in Brazil, which I believe (although speculative) gave Nog a big boost and although Schaub had plenty of confidence going in to the fight I think the nerves affected him adversely once he actually made his way to the octagon.

ReBEL`LiON · 11-23-11, 05:47 PM

^ that's actually how i see the fight too. your dead on as far as the skill sets go. rightfully so mir deserves to be the fav. but the key difference for me betting on this fight is, whenever mir gets hit the dude just fades away. and his pacing is like a snail.

if nog can set the pace high, make it out the first round, i think he can steal this fight away from mir. I can see it going the distance. nog has alot of heart and if frank mir doesnt put him away i can see him winning a decision.

gabe · 11-23-11, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by ReBEL`LiON

bro who said anything about comparing le to frank mir? try not to assume things. My point was you guys are counting out Nog to get ran through again. he's going to offer a better fight this time.

but I'm okay with it. Nog is much tougher fighter than frank mir and im counting on that for the victory.

Btw your reasoning seems pretty retarded for breaking down fights. so shogun = machida? get outta here. this is the first fighter in his prime that jones will be fighting. -450 is NOT a steal.

You said people were counting out Wandy against Le the same way they're counting out Nog against Mir. The only difference there is that Wandy had a good chance at beating Le, and Nog has a very tiny chance of beating Mir. Wandy beating Le surprised nobody, it is expected, but Nog beating Mir would raise some eyebrows, IMO.

Follow the Ortiz sytem: He beat Bader, lost to Evans. Nog beat Schaub and he's gonna lose to Mir. RESPEK.

I would take Shogun over Machida, so it is a no brainer that I'll take Jones over Machida. It doesn't matter if he's in his prime. He's no match for Jon Jones. Unless Machida could easily make work of Rampage and Shogun, he stands no chance against Jonny Bones Jones. I won't be surprised if Jones is -700 by fight time. Machida is just another notch on his belt. Don't look into the over-hyping and just look at the facts. For Machida to get a victory over Rampage or Shogun, he has to fight his heart out and hope he's the better man that night. And those are two guys Jon Jones made work out of. Only way Machida beats Jones is if Jones randomly faints or gets a DQ.

ReBEL`LiON · 11-23-11, 06:00 PM

Originally posted by gabe

You said people were counting out Wandy against Le the same way they're counting out Nog against Mir. The only difference there is that Wandy had a good chance at beating Le, and Nog has a very tiny chance of beating Mir. Wandy beating Le surprised nobody, it is expected, but Nog beating Mir would raise some eyebrows, IMO.

Follow the Ortiz sytem: He beat Bader, lost to Evans. Nog beat Schaub and he's gonna lose to Mir. RESPEK.

I would take Shogun over Machida, so it is a no brainer that I'll take Jones over Machida. It doesn't matter if he's in his prime. He's no match for Jon Jones. Unless Machida could easily make work of Rampage and Shogun, he stands no chance against Jonny Bones Jones. I won't be surprised if Jones is -700 by fight time. Machida is just another notch on his belt. Don't look into the over-hyping and just look at the facts. For Machida to get a victory over Rampage or Shogun, he has to fight his heart out and hope he's the better man that night. And those are two guys Jon Jones made work out of. Only way Machida beats Jones is if Jones randomly faints or gets a DQ.

i'm not on these forums too often, but if im not mistaken this is what you predicted for that fight:

"Also taking Cung Le at -150. That's a great price to get him at in his hometown. Wanderlei is done, until he proves otherwise. I think he's mostly fighting for the big check his name warrants. Cung Le for the KO."

I don't even wanna rebuttal your reasoning for machida vs jones. sorry bro but i dont think you have any idea what youre talking about.

Vaughany · 11-23-11, 06:12 PM

gabe · 11-23-11, 06:57 PM

Originally posted by ReBEL`LiON

i'm not on these forums too often, but if im not mistaken this is what you predicted for that fight:

"Also taking Cung Le at -150. That's a great price to get him at in his hometown. Wanderlei is done, until he proves otherwise. I think he's mostly fighting for the big check his name warrants. Cung Le for the KO."

I don't even wanna rebuttal your reasoning for machida vs jones. sorry bro but i dont think you have any idea what youre talking about.

I thought the fight was a coin flip and Cung Le was the best bet. Does that imply I think Wandy has no chance? If I thought Cung Le was going to win, I would have made him one of my picks. It was a coin flip fight and I thought Cung Le had the advantage. He won both rounds on the judges scorecards. If he had made it through that beating without the early stoppage, he would have likely taken a decision. - and it wasn't a "prediction," it was what I was hoping would happen. If I was making a prediction, I would have had him included as a pick, but I had no idea how that fight would go, I didn't predict anything, just hoped for a Cung Le KO.

The Ortiz strategy was a joke, but I believe that's how it's gonna play out. My reasoning for Machida vs Jones is very simple. Machida has tough fights against guys (Rampage, Shogun) Jones beat very easily. If that doesn't make sense to you, then I'm sorry. I'll try to make it even more simple: Machida lost to Shogun and Rampage. Jon Jones made Shogun and Rampage look like amateurs. Those are the simple facts. Everything else is for hype to make it not seem like a one sided fight. Machida's not the guy who is gonna catch Jon Jones. Someone might be able to, but it's not gonna be Lyoto.

GunShard · 11-23-11, 07:24 PM

I view Jones as an aggressive fighter and Machida as an defensive fighter. Jones is the better fighter from what I seen.

FlashinLeather · 11-23-11, 07:54 PM

free money via jones (as much as I can't stand the guy)

Vaughany · 11-24-11, 03:50 AM

Originally posted by gabe

I thought the fight was a coin flip and Cung Le was the best bet. Does that imply I think Wandy has no chance? If I thought Cung Le was going to win, I would have made him one of my picks. It was a coin flip fight and I thought Cung Le had the advantage. He won both rounds on the judges scorecards. If he had made it through that beating without the early stoppage, he would have likely taken a decision. - and it wasn't a "prediction," it was what I was hoping would happen. If I was making a prediction, I would have had him included as a pick, but I had no idea how that fight would go, I didn't predict anything, just hoped for a Cung Le KO.

The Ortiz strategy was a joke, but I believe that's how it's gonna play out. My reasoning for Machida vs Jones is very simple. Machida has tough fights against guys (Rampage, Shogun) Jones beat very easily. If that doesn't make sense to you, then I'm sorry. I'll try to make it even more simple: Machida lost to Shogun and Rampage. Jon Jones made Shogun and Rampage look like amateurs. Those are the simple facts. Everything else is for hype to make it not seem like a one sided fight. Machida's not the guy who is gonna catch Jon Jones. Someone might be able to, but it's not gonna be Lyoto.

Surely if you think a fight is a coin-flip then if you bet at all it should be on the underdog - especially when the underdog is Wand at +150? Furthermore you said nobody was surprised that Wand won?

gabe · 11-24-11, 05:30 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Surely if you think a fight is a coin-flip then if you bet at all it should be on the underdog - especially when the underdog is Wand at +150? Furthermore you said nobody was surprised that Wand won?

I sure as hell wasn't. People don't really see Cung Le as a full-out MMA fighter. Wandy is an MMA legend. I thought it was a coin-flip but was on Cung Le mostly because I wanted to see him win. I thought Le had a 52% chance of winning, whereas I think Mir has an 87% chance.

Vaughany · 11-24-11, 05:35 AM

Ahhh I see, so you meant to say close to a coin flip rather than "is a coinflip" and when you said "surprised nobody, it is expected" you weren't including yourself in the "nobody".

gabe · 11-24-11, 06:25 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Ahhh I see, so you meant to say close to a coin flip rather than "is a coinflip" and when you said "surprised nobody, it is expected" you weren't including yourself in the "nobody".

My previous response stated that I "sure as hell" (to quote myself) was not surprised, so yes, I was indeed including myself in the "nobody."

when it comes to MMA fights, anything between 50/50 and 55/45 is a "coin-flip-fight" in my book.

cheeese · 11-24-11, 09:14 AM

Do you always lay -150 on coinflips?

FindTheLock · 11-24-11, 01:09 PM

guys betting on heads -150 is great odds. Everyone knows heads is the favorite side of the quarter!

Vaughany · 11-24-11, 01:43 PM

gabe · 11-24-11, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by cheeese

Do you always lay -150 on coinflips?

No, only when I am rooting for the fighter who is -150. If I don't care who wins, I'll take the dog.

gabe · 11-24-11, 02:44 PM

Obviously, you guys are saying that you never bet on anyone -150 when you think the fight could go either way.

Furthermore, it sounds like I'm the only one here who thought it would be an even fight and bet on Cung Le. I'm pretty sure there are plenty of people who bet on Cung Le that weren't confident he would win. If only people who knew he would win were to bet on him, there would hardly be any bets placed. It's called gambling, kids.

Vaughany · 11-24-11, 03:00 PM

So just to clarify, you didn't say this then?....

"Also taking Cung Le at -150. That's a great price to get him at in his hometown. Wanderlei is done, until he proves otherwise. I think he's mostly fighting for the big check his name warrants. Cung Le for the KO."

You gotta admit that saying things like "-150...that's a great price" & "Wanderlei is done" is not something that one would usually say when they think a fight is a coin flip!

FindTheLock · 11-24-11, 03:08 PM

sometimes it is easier to just admit you were wrong and move on with your life. No one is perfect. You thought Wandy had no chance and he pulled it out! That is all there is to it.

gabe · 11-24-11, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

So just to clarify, you didn't say this then?....

"Also taking Cung Le at -150. That's a great price to get him at in his hometown. Wanderlei is done, until he proves otherwise. I think he's mostly fighting for the big check his name warrants. Cung Le for the KO."

You gotta admit that saying things like "-150...that's a great price" & "Wanderlei is done" is not something that one would usually say when they think a fight is a coin flip!

I didn't say he is done, I said he is done until he proves otherwise, which he did. I didn't rule out the possibility of him winning.

I thought Cung Le was the best bet and I stand by that. He was winning on the judges scorecards, for sure. Thinking he was the best bet doesn't mean I thought he was going to win. If I thought he was going to win, I would have included him as a pick. I sometimes include coin-flip fights as picks, but only when the value is good. (such as Tom Lawlor against Weidman) but the value for Le wasn't good, so I didn't include him as a pick, and only made a personal bet on him 'cos I was rooting for him. Don't see why this is hard to understand.

gabe · 11-24-11, 04:43 PM

Originally posted by FindTheLock

sometimes it is easier to just admit you were wrong and move on with your life. No one is perfect. You thought Wandy had no chance and he pulled it out! That is all there is to it.

If I thought he didn't have a chance, not only would I have made Cung Le a pick, but I would have attached a

to him.

Slightly talking up a fighter I am betting on to boost self-confidence in my bet doesn't mean I think it's a safe bet. Fighting in his home-town obviously means nothing lol most fighters lose in their home-towns. (guillard, florian, etc.)

It was an even fight and I was rooting for/talking up the guy I was betting on. In no way did I think he was going to win or was telling anyone else to bet on him.