Ufc 132

**omalley21** · 06-27-11, 03:57 PM

Agreed. Im considering going big on this. Someone talk me out of it.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 06-27-11, 04:54 PM

don't overthink it Cruz is the play...I'm going big but remember bankroll management

**bjpenn85** · 06-27-11, 05:13 PM

its important to not go big in title matches. Its often quite even among the top level fighters and its simply not that easy to win big money on those fights. I will say in this particular event, profit is quite easy as you get cruz decision to 2.75, and faber 2.2 at 5 dimes. It should cover the risk. Cruz might might win by tko although unlikely, but you get great odds at 5 dimes 8.12. cruz sub is not relevant in what i think will be a standup fight.

**Kaladarus** · 06-27-11, 05:37 PM

I think you should hit the Cruz by decision. It's very unlikely he finishes Faber here. Maybe put some on decision and some on Cruz straight up if you want. I definitely think Cruz is the right play here though.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 06-27-11, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

its important to not go big in title matches. Its often quite even among the top level fighters and its simply not that easy to win big money on those fights. I will say in this particular event, profit is quite easy as you get cruz decision to 2.75, and faber 2.2 at 5 dimes. It should cover the risk. Cruz might might win by tko although unlikely, but you get great odds at 5 dimes 8.12. cruz sub is not relevant in what i think will be a standup fight.

I'm betting more than my normal wager, but nothing that will sting too badly if Cruz loses somehow..I could be dead wrong but it seems to me since the last time they fought, Cruz has gotten MUCH better and Faber has declined or stayed stagnant, plus Faber has missed a lot of time due to injury which hasn't helped his progression...Cruz will handle Faber

**bjpenn85** · 06-27-11, 05:52 PM

yeah. cruz is great. hes moving in and out. hitting people from all angles. faber stands still as a rock. i think faber will try to take him down and all that. i just do not think that tactic will work over the course of 5 rounds. i said the same with pettis and guida and i was wrong. But 5 rounds? Chael sonnen yeah, but he takes down everybody, even okami. I dont think faber is that good of a wrestler.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 06-27-11, 06:01 PM

The only thing that worries me is that I am too confident in Cruz here

**Kaladarus** · 06-27-11, 06:13 PM

A quote I live by

"Got a hunch, bet a bunch"

**cheeese** · 06-27-11, 08:08 PM

Remember the fight is favored to go to the judges who knows what could happen.

**koscheckbaby** · 06-27-11, 08:22 PM

I hope I'm wrong, but I really don't see many opportunities this Saturday. When Ryan Bader at -465 is one of the better bets of the card, betting 132 just doesn't seem appealing.

**Wrecked** · 06-27-11, 10:36 PM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

What's up? I'm new to the site and thought I would post my plays on UFC 132. I have lurked around here for the past week or 2 and there are some good cappers and insight in most sports. Let's win some cash!!

Cruz-130 ...I really love Cruz in this fight. I think he is the elite in this weightclass and he will prove it again Saturday. Cruz has elite cardio and movement add in the revenge factor for his only loss and I see Cruz outpointing Faber and winning a unanimous decision. Faber's only chance in my mind is winning round by takedowns and I don't think that will happen.

Might add some plays later in the week but love this play

I'd be scared to take this bet because Faber is a poster boy for the UFC now, so the judges may be biased in his favor.
It'll have to be a unanimous victory on Cruz's part imo for him to win a decision.

**The Bet Master** · 06-27-11, 10:43 PM

I see Faber winning, but it's an absolute tossup in my opinion. Not much that excites me in 132, for betting or for watching.

**bogbat** · 06-28-11, 01:39 AM

Originally posted by The Bet Master

I see Faber winning, but it's an absolute tossup in my opinion. Not much that excites me in 132, for betting or for watching.

Yet you have a Faber vs Cruz pic in your avatar...

**bjpenn85** · 06-28-11, 02:28 AM

are you from the states?

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 06-28-11, 03:03 AM

I'm not worried about the judges robbing me on a decision...If the fight goes the way I think it will, it will be a clear victory for Cruz

**bjpenn85** · 06-28-11, 03:33 AM

benavidez got a split decision, so i wouldnt be that confident mr. The most clearest unanimous decision ends up being split unfortunately these days.

**Straight Cash** · 06-28-11, 04:54 AM

I think Cruz has simply just evolved more since their last fight.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 06-28-11, 08:46 AM

Originally posted by Straight Cash

I think Cruz has simply just evolved more since their last fight.

you hit the nail on the head my friend

**bogbat** · 06-28-11, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by koscheckbaby

I hope I'm wrong, but I really don't see many opportunities this Saturday. When Ryan Bader at -465 is one of the better bets of the card, betting 132 just doesn't seem appealing.

Ryan Bader over Tito is easily worth that Juice, he is essentially a better version of Matt Hamill who recently outclassed Tito.

Also, there is some serious value with Wiman over Siver and we're yet to see how the undercard odds.

**koscheckbaby** · 06-28-11, 12:31 PM

I don't like Bader at all. I've explained it. He NEVER has looked good in any of his fights. I think Matt Hamill might be better than him. Hamill certainly wouldn't have struggled with Eric Schafer like Bader did.

**v1y** · 06-28-11, 12:35 PM

Originally posted by koscheckbaby

I don't like Bader at all. I've explained it. He NEVER has looked good in any of his fights. I think Matt Hamill might be better than him. Hamill certainly wouldn't have struggled with Eric Schafer like Bader did.

Schafer's weird though. He dominated Bonnar in the first round of their fight.

**koscheckbaby** · 06-28-11, 02:08 PM

Schafer has good takedowns for a BJJ guy, but he's nothing standing up. If you're a wrestler with heavy hands, you should destroy the guy. I remember betting on Bader over Schafer on so many parlays. I was pissed at how difficult the fight actually was.

**rocky mattioli** · 06-28-11, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by koscheckbaby

I don't like Bader at all. I've explained it. He NEVER has looked good in any of his fights. I think Matt Hamill might be better than him. Hamill certainly wouldn't have struggled with Eric Schafer like Bader did.

my god...the guy beat lil nog...that`s a quality win any way you slice it....

and it`s not as much about bader...it`s about a totally shot ortiz....

**Ladle** · 06-28-11, 03:13 PM

Bader is better than Hamill. Superior athlete, harder puncher, better wrestler, and just generally less slow and lumbering. Also, even though Bader's cardio starts disappearing after five minutes, he can still fight well when fatiguing.

**koscheckbaby** · 06-28-11, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by Ladle

Bader is better than Hamill. Superior athlete, harder puncher, better wrestler, and just generally less slow and lumbering. Also, even though Bader's cardio starts disappearing after five minutes, he can still fight well when fatiguing.

I mean, Bader should be better than Hamill and probably is. But I feel like Hamill at least brings the pain more. Bader is supposedly so heavy handed. Yet, he couldn't even finish Eric Schafer, Carmello Marrero, or Nog. And he really fought like a total pussy against Nog. A lot of people make the case Nog won for simply Bader doing nothing and I kind of agree.

Look at their respective fights with Jardine. Hamill really just brought the fight, getting inside and really bullying Jardine and ******* him up. Jardine lost his mouth piece basically to avoid getting slaughtered and finished in that 2nd. Bader was getting worked from the 2nd round on prior to getting the comeback KO and he didn't bully Jardine like Hamill did.

**Ladle** · 06-28-11, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by koscheckbaby

I mean, Bader should be better than Hamill and probably is. But I feel like Hamill at least brings the pain more. Bader is supposedly so heavy handed. Yet, he couldn't even finish Eric Schafer, Carmello Marrero, or Nog. And he really fought like a total pussy against Nog. A lot of people make the case Nog won for simply Bader doing nothing and I kind of agree.

Look at their respective fights with Jardine. Hamill really just brought the fight, getting inside and really bullying Jardine and ******* him up. Jardine lost his mouth piece basically to avoid getting slaughtered and finished in that 2nd. Bader was getting worked from the 2nd round on prior to getting the comeback KO and he didn't bully Jardine like Hamill did.

I don't really understand the argument for Rogerio beating him. Bader clearly won the first, and barely anything happened in the second round outside of Bader's takedowns, so you pretty much have to give the round to him based on that alone.

That said, outside of that fight, Bader definitely has a history of looking absolutely awful in the second round. It's really becoming a running theme.

**jcubs55** · 06-28-11, 03:36 PM

Smart opinion on the Cruz fight... I think he wins that one easy, biggest play I've posted so far in my thread which has been crushing it with the help of my friend who is an MMA genius.

**sag3000** · 06-28-11, 03:51 PM

From what I've heard, Bader is one of those guys working his ass of in the gym, just having a hard time putting it all together come fight time. I heard the same about Mike Pyle, and was lucky being convinced before the Hathaway fight. I lost some respect for him in the Bones fight where he looked very scared, but I still believe he will have his time very soon.

I actually hope for a poor performence from master Bader (høhø) against Tito, so he can become a value dog in his next fight.

**koscheckbaby** · 06-28-11, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by Ladle

I don't really understand the argument for Rogerio beating him. Bader clearly won the first, and barely anything happened in the second round outside of Bader's takedowns, so you pretty much have to give the round to him based on that alone.

That said, outside of that fight, Bader definitely has a history of looking absolutely awful in the second round. It's really becoming a running theme.

Yeah. That's why I said I sorta agree with people that argue Nog won. I mean, technically, Bader won on the 10-9 must. But I feel like he should have been punished for the way he fought and maybe Nog should have been rewarded for the fact his opponent didn't trust himself to be anywhere in the fight. He didn't want to be in Nog's guard, but he didn't want to really stand. It was such a tentative, bullshit way to fight. Nog should have just went for broke though. Nog's lost two fights in a row because his opponents were so reluctant to engage that Nog in turn was even more reluctant.

I mean, I don't see how Tito wins, but I cringe seeing The Master Bader at high juice.

**omalley21** · 06-29-11, 02:22 PM

I think Cruz should be a bigger favorite but Urijah has the name recognition. Similar to Cain vs Brock which was my largest bet ever. brock money poured in late. Im hoping the same happens here for Faber. Anyone think the Cruz will end up at + money?

**urge2kill** · 06-29-11, 02:38 PM

I dont see cruz hitting +. lines been moving the other way.

**omalley21** · 06-29-11, 04:11 PM

Ya im being optimistic, but I do expect the casual fans to bet Faber. Right? Nobody knows who Cruz is.

**blumpkin** · 06-29-11, 04:31 PM

I expect the cruz line to keep going up by saturday night. get on cruz now if you already havent.

**MMAbetMASTA** · 06-29-11, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by Kaladarus

A quote I live by

"Got a hunch, bet a bunch"

I like this, Kaladarus!!!