Your biggest lock for UFC 131?

[bogbat]

Disclaimer: No such thing as a lock

Regardless of odds, what is your biggest lock for UFC 131?

Mine is probably Dustin Poirier over Jason Young.

It is Jason Young's with the promotion which often prompts a sympathetic system overload. On top of this it is his first time making the cut to 145 and we all know that the first cut to a lower weigh division can often create problems for them. Jason Young's take down defense looks ok for a brit but its hard to tell because most of the fights I've been able to find were against other brits.
I wasn't able to find Young's fight vs Jorge Britto but I read that he was taken down a lot and in a recent interview with Jason Young he said that he was able to convince him to stand up with him after being on the floor together for a while. Jason Young does have fairly crisp stand up but I think Poirier will be able to get the take down when he needs to

Dustin Poirier had a breakout performance vs Josh Grispi but a little luster was rubbed off when Roop beat just as convincingly and got a the finish. However, I see no reason to think Dustin Poirier won't win this bout without too much trouble. It's too much juice for a straight up bet but perfect for parlay fodder.

[RaiderNation MMA]

i read an article on young, says he is pretty decent. but anyways, im pretty sure jon olav is gonna win

[kmdubya]

Soszynski. Massenzio is normally fighting at 185. Soszynski is strong like bull and tough. I don't think Massenzio has much of a chance in this one.

I like Poirier as well, just haven't seen enough of him to make a lock judgement. I also can't see how Cerrone loses his fight at all.

[Vaughany]

My lock is "Not Munoz by submission" or "Not Maia by KO"!

[bogbat]

My lock is "Not Munoz by submission" or "Not Maia by KO"!

lol I'd be surprised but not mind blown if Mia KO'd Munoz

[GunShard]

I don't see any good locks for UFC 131. But I do see good locks on the next events.

UFC Live: Cheick Kongo defeats Pat Barry.
UFC 132: Melvin Guillard defeats Shane Roller.
UFC 133: Vitor Belfort defeats Yoshihiro Akiyama.
UFC 134: Anderson Silva defeats Yushin Okami.

[Dave--M]

Joey beltran

[urge2kill]

Cerrone. I think this is a showcase fight for him.

[snake11eyes]

My lock is "Not Munoz by submission" or "Not Maia by KO"!

Im going to go ahead and call them locks. However the odds probably reflect that.

[snake11eyes]

Cerrone. I think this is a showcase fight for him.

Yea I have to agree here. Still a high price, but this is almost as easy as Stephens vs Danny Boy last week.

[rocky mattioli]

from what i`m reading,jason young isn`t ufc ready...but,i didn`t know who poirer was before the grispi fight...

[JuicedUp]

[NunyaBidness]

Joey beltran

I'm on Beltran huge. But he isn't a lock against anyone.

[stefan084]

why does everyone like Kongo so much? i was never impressed with him. what is it in this particular match up that makes him a good pick?

[phillybadboy]

mark munoz

[Vrakas]

kongo is a lock.

[Kaladarus]

kongo is a lock.

That's got to be the best lock ever. There's no way Kongo loses at UFC 131.

[Educ8d Degener8]

why does everyone like Kongo so much? i was never impressed with him. what is it in this particular match up that makes him a good pick?

It's probably not so much people liking Kongo as it is people fading Barry...

I would fade the sh*t out of Barry if he were facing a well rounded opponent, as he's displayed that if the fight is not standing, he's worthless.

But Kongo doesn't exactly exhibit high fighter IQ, so he'll probably end up standing and banging with Barry and wind up needing serious dental work... though he should try to clinch up and get it to the ground with some gnp...

Or he'll just repeatedly kick Pat in the nuts.

[RealBets]

i like beltran over rosa. looks like easy money to me.

[Hannibal]

It's probably not so much people liking Kongo as it is people fading Barry...

I would fade the sh*t out of Barry if he were facing a well rounded opponent, as he's displayed that if the fight is not standing, he's worthless.

But Kongo doesn't exactly exhibit high fighter IQ, so he'll probably end up standing and banging with Barry and wind up needing serious dental work... though he should try to clinch up and get it to the ground with some gnp...

Or he'll just repeatedly kick Pat in the nuts.

For a guy that touted as a "devasting striker", Kongo quite the pussy. Stand and bang??..only when he fights someone that is little threat to him standing. You're more likely to see him conservatively throwing strikes from the outside, and looking for opportunities to clinch or takedown. ... and of course knee barry in the balls. **** they should have props on that. Kongo will knee him in the sack: -220 vs he wont: + 190 hahhaha

[MMAbetMASTA]

mark munoz

I don't have any 'locks' per se, but like this guy my largest play is on MUNOZ! WAR MUNOZ, BABY!!!

[MMAbetMASTA]

i like beltran over rosa. looks like easy money to me.

I think beltran can win, but I wouldn't call this fight easy money by any means. Rosa has a great ground game and is competent on the feet (still give beltran a good edge tho on the feet), beltran best have some good tdd...

[Jordan23]

I think beltran can win, but I wouldn't call this fight easy money by any means. Rosa has a great ground game and is competent on the feet (still give beltran a good edge tho on the feet), beltran best have some good tdd...

Beltran's wrestling is underrated. I do give Beltran the advantage on the feet. I have a feeling he wins this fight on toughness.

[Camdemonium]

It's probably not so much people liking Kongo as it is people fading Barry...

I would fade the sh*t out of Barry if he were facing a well rounded opponent, as he's displayed that if the fight is not standing, he's worthless.

But Kongo doesn't exactly exhibit high fighter IQ, so he'll probably end up standing and banging with Barry and wind up needing serious dental work... though he should try to clinch up and get it to the ground with some gnp...

Or he'll just repeatedly kick Pat in the nuts.

One thing we hear a lot is that it is much easier to learn counter-wrestling than wrestling and submission-defense vs submission offense. I haven't heard that Barry was training specifically wrestling defense but if I was him I would be. I guess all I'm saying is keep an open mind. Think GSot-Siver. That fight cost me a lot of money because there was NO WAY Siver could keep the fight standing...

That being said Kongo's stand up is light years ahead of Sotiropolous's.

[borderline]

munoz has to be one of the best plays on the card. his stand up has gotten drastically better since he started training with a silva and black house. with the better wrestling i dont see how maia will even think about submitting him

[shari91]

Thanks for the info in here guys

One of the Aussie books I play with is offering a 100% winning bonus up to $150 for a bet placed on 131. I'm trying to come up with the best way to try to recover a bit of my losses last weekend so your posts in here are helping me out. GL to you all

[goblinburner]

dameon mia and junior dos santos are locks

[borderline]

really like dos santos a lot as well, dude is a little lighter than carwin but his stand up is a lot crisper and accurate. there are rumors around that carwin has trimmed up and wouldnt be able to use his weight to push up against the cage like he did against mir and gonzaga.

loving dos santos

[Vaughany]

really like dos santos a lot as well, dude is a little lighter than carwin but his stand up is a lot crisper and accurate. there are rumors around that carwin has trimmed up and wouldnt be able to use his weight to push up against the cage like he did against mir and gonzaga.

loving dos santos

Not really rumours, pretty clear tht he's lost 20 to 25lbs as he's said it and you can see him in countless interviews and countdowns!

[Vaughany]

It's probably not so much people liking Kongo as it is people fading Barry...

I would fade the sh*t out of Barry if he were facing a well rounded opponent, as he's displayed that if the fight is not standing, he's worthless.

But Kongo doesn't exactly exhibit high fighter IQ, so he'll probably end up standing and banging with Barry and wind up needing serious dental work... though he should try to clinch up and get it to the ground with some gnp...

Or he'll just repeatedly kick Pat in the nuts.

You're right that it is more about fading Barry than anything else. Barry is a cool and likeable dude but his MMA is limited. Many think he is an amazing striker because of his leg kicks, but he certainly isnt K1 level. He doesnt throw many combos - mostly just looks for the leg kick on its own, think the Hardonk fight is the only one where I've seen him throw punches in bunches followed by kicks. In comparison to somebody like GOkhan Saki, Barry's striking is limited. He also lacks footwork and head movement which makes him easy to hit. We all know tht his wrestling and BJJ is also raw - add the fact that he doesnt take his diet seriously, has admitted he doesn't like getting hit, and that Kongo is pretty much in a must-win situation if he wants to stay relevant in the division and things don't bode too well against a big strong dude in Kongo who has been 3 rounds many times before against better competition.

With regards to Kongo not having high fighter IQ, I'd say it's quite the opposite. Many people dislike KOngo and call him a "pussy" because he doesnt stand and bang and took down likes of Evensen, Hardonk, Buentello, Al-Turk etc... Surely this would mean that he does fight smart as he takes the fight to where he has the greatest advantage??

Not many people realise that Kongo started doing greco-roman wrestling at a young age and that although his defensive wrestling isnt great, his ability to get somebody like Barry to the ground is without question.

[sirchadwick1]

Fading Barry is correct and now is the best time to do it. I seriously question Barry's mental toughness in the Octagon. It seems if he gets taken out of his element (off his feet) that he checks out. You could see it on his face how frustrated he was against CC. It was almost as though he just gave the fight away and had no answer.

Listen, I absolutely love Barry's personality and think he would be cool as hell to hang out with, etc. But as far as a mid-tier UFC HW, he's about to hit a wall. I hope he decides to get serious about his diet and training and goes down to LHW after this one.

If Kongo doesn't get Barry down in this fight and pound him out or at the very least get a UD I'll be very surprised.

[NickBaragona]

Donald Cerrone and Dave Herman.

[Straight Cash]

My lock is "Not Munoz by submission" or "Not Maia by KO"!

haha both of these would be pretty wild, but you never know with MMA!

[rocky mattioli]

v and sir chadwick....well said...i`m no kongo fan.....but barry is so limited...i don`t like his cardio...he`s smallish(short)...and way to economical with his offense.....

the only fight of his that i`ve seen that i was impressed with was hardonk and my god,hardonk was a lower mid-level ufc fighter...he was 8-6....and never beat a legit fighter..he looked the part...but that was it...

been looking to fade barry...he`s a mental case...the fact that he couldn`t handle crocop at this point in his career was an absolute embarrassment..this is the same crocop that was manhandled by kongo 3 years earlier...

the only thing that worries me here is barry`s guardian angel(who i`m sure was actively involved in the beltran eye gouge)......

[DDT]

I'm really liking Florian winning