Anybody going big on Dos Santos?

[Chairib]

I don't think Carwin is going to take it down. See my above post.

War Carwin.

Carwin's wrestling has always been used to keep the fight standing so he punch. Very good observation.

[Kaladarus]

Too many negatives for Carwin right now. He's lighter and just coming off surgery. His striking is significantly worse than Dos Santos. It's likely that he will be much weaker and there is a good chance he is steroid free now. There was no proof that he was ever using steroids, but just before he started losing the weight he was under investigation for steroid use. If you guys re watch the Gonzaga fight you'll notice that Gonzaga hurt Carwin right away and got him down. Dos Santos had no problems fighting Gonzaga after that. CC is a kick boxer with good stand up so I wouldn't take much from Dos Santos getting hit a couple of times that fight. In the Nelson fight Santos was doing much better until the last round where he started to fade a bit. Carwin is still slightly bigger and quite a bit more muscular than Santos which means that he will likely fade before Santos.

Carwin's last opponent before Lesnar was Frank Mir. That's another great fight to grab information from. Against Mir Carwin got inside and started using the clinch to take him out. Mir is for the most part a forward moving aggressive striker. Especially around that time where Mir had got up to 270lbs of muscle. Unfortunately, the forward movement allows Carwin to clinch up or go for takedowns. Mir had lost a considerable amount of speed and was unable to use angles. He basically came into the fight as an ideal opponent for Carwin's game plan. Santos has a big speed advantage and is able to counter strike a lot. His team is know for running away and always using movement to limit what their opponents can do. Carwin is coming in lighter so his speed should be better, but he has never been known as a guy that goes in with explosive takedowns or a guy that explodes into the clinch.

[GoldRush7]

I would not sleep on Carwin just because of the lighter weight... dude is a wrecking machine. I can't wait for this fight

[Pin2Win]

Carwin is gonna beat Dos Santos .. he looks healthy and I think no one in the UFC has the RAW physical power that that Carwin has when it comes to his punches .. not only that .. but Carwin also has Wrestling which could help him a lot .

If Carwin gets a hold of Dos Santos and puts him against the cage and throw a variety of punches at him .. It's good night Dos Santos and he could win it in round 1 .

If Dos Santos survives his punches in Round 1 .. he will be very very beaten and worn down in Round 2 .. so my prediction is .. Carwin will finish Dos Santos in Round 1 or 2 by KO/TKO ..

If this was against Brock Lesnar .. I would be telling you to go ALL IN on Dos Santos .. but Carwin is STRONG .. Healthier then ever before .. and has a very good diet and has lost 30 pounds so far which will give him a boost in speed .. Stamina and his Gas tank should be greatly improved .. keep in mind he is coming in being HEALTHY and ready to go at 100 % .


this is just my opinion though .. but just saying don't go betting a lot on Dos Santos .. Shane Carwin is no joke .. especially a healthy Shane Carwin .

Hmmmm... Carwin and Brock both have huge power coming through their hands, look to end fights early, and they are both BIG wrestlers that have the same style fighting style... why Carwin and not Brock when styles are vertually the same?

[FindTheLock]

Hmmmm... Carwin and Brock both have huge power coming through their hands, look to end fights early, and they are both BIG wrestlers that have the same style fighting style... why Carwin and not Brock when styles are vertually the same?

Brock doesn't have any stand up game, offense or defense. Brock relies purely on size and athleticism. In my opinion Carwin is the better MM Artist. Brock is a totally different beast entirely. Carwin likes to stand and bang while brock always wants to take it to the mat and either pound on someones head or squeeze their neck off.

[kmdubya]

Hmmmm... Carwin and Brock both have huge power coming through their hands, look to end fights early, and they are both BIG wrestlers that have the same style fighting style... why Carwin and not Brock when styles are vertually the same?

Brock has big hands, but not striking power. Yeah he mushed up Herring's face, but accurate power striking from Carwin is a whole bunch of levels better than Brock's.

And one guy has been known to be able to take a punch to the face, the other forbids it at training camp.

[danso]

this fight seems like it's going to be epic.. It's literally a coinflip IMO, so at +value on carwin, that would be the best bet

[sirchadwick1]

Prop lines for JDS/Carwin are up at 5dimes. Was planning on hedging my JDS play w/ Carwin by TKO but at +185 I don't think I'm going to... was hoping for +225 there.

[NunyaBidness]

Prop lines for JDS/Carwin are up at 5dimes. Was planning on hedging my JDS play w/ Carwin by TKO but at +185 I don't think I'm going to... was hoping for +225 there.

Carwin in rd 1 +375 looks good to me.

[sirchadwick1]

Considering the +375 (edit now +350). I'm just hoping Carwin's cardio isn't as reinvented as people are making it out to be.

[sirchadwick1]

Vid of 245 lb Carwin jumproping. He looks like a LHW.

http://www.shane-carwin.com/video/me-jump-roping

[kmdubya]

Considering the +375 (edit now +350). I'm just hoping Carwin's cardio isn't as reinvented as people are making it out to be.

I think it's a non issue now. He used to cut weight in order to make heavyweight. Now with his new diet, he's been training at his fight weight.

Cardio is always an issue with HWs, but I don't think we'll see a repeat of Carwin becoming a statue at the start of the 2nd round.

[Kaladarus]

Vid of 245 lb Carwin jumproping. He looks like a LHW.

Is he 245 now? He was 255 the last time I heard about his weight. Do you know he is 245 or just a guess?

[sirchadwick1]

Is he 245 now? He was 255 the last time I heard about his weight. Do you know he is 245 or just a guess?

I actually meant 249. http://www.shane-carwin.com/profiles...0-days-out-the

[snake11eyes]

I actually thought he was going to look smaller. I dont think he looks bad.

[Kaladarus]

Nice, thanks for the response. Looks like he's going to come in a little smaller than I initially thought.

[jin2daj]

i really think carwin needs to get back on the horse meat.

carwin used to have a shot at ufc gold, by simply being bigger than everyone else. but now hes just like cain but slower, older, and less athletic.

though i suppose he still has big fists.

[bogbat]

i really think carwin needs to get back on the horse meat. carwin used to have a shot at ufc gold, by simply being bigger than everyone else. but now hes just like cain but slower, older, and less athletic. though i suppose he still has big fists.

Yep he's ruined his niche. I re-watched all his fights today, it didn't take long, his foot work is terrible, his boxing is average. All he really had going for him is incredible one punch knock out power, lets hope he still has that. If he doesn't he better have vastly improved some other aspect of his game.

Despite of all that I still put money on him. What can I say, I'm a sucker for underdogs.

[sirchadwick1]

JDS is at -155 now. Wish I had waited on the line... but I didn't think he'd get any lower than -165.

I did have a dream last night that Carwin wins the fight with 1 single punch at the very beginning of rd 1.
But his opponents face did not look like JDS at all... so I'm just going to ignore it lol.

[Dave--M]

haha i had a dream aswel !

i was trying to watch the maia munoz fight but couldnt see and then all of a sudden it had finished but no one knew what happened and then dana white come up to me and was shouting at me EVERYTIME! EVERYTIME! THE STRONG WRESTLER WITH BIG POWER WINS !

so i took it munoz won but when i was awake and thought about it more it could be a sign for carwin lol

just a dream though, probably still going to bet on jds

[Pin2Win]

Should be a great fight, I'm thinking I like Carwin in this fight he has fought a couple bigger name fights... it should be fun also knowing they have the same record

[sirchadwick1]

Should be a great fight, I'm thinking I like Carwin in this fight he has fought a couple bigger name fights... it should be fun also knowing they have the same record

Yeah what's great about this one is that Carwin has never fought a striker like JDS and JDS has never fought a wrestler like Carwin. Can't wait to see their gameplans! I just feel Junior's speed, footwork, technicality, and head movement will wear Carwin down within a couple rounds and he will counter with some big shots. I expect Carwin to take a more calculated approach in this one considering how he gassed last fight. Hell yes to Fireworks in the making! If this one ends up as a snoozefest I'll

[trevlyn1983]

why doesnt everyone think Carwin has cardio issues ? Because he threw who knows how many power punches against lesner and gassed himself out trying to finish ? Anyone who threw punches like that would gas out .. I really think he has good cardio and has a really good chance of winning this fight.

[urge2kill]

When has Carwin shown good cardio?

[omalley21]

why doesnt everyone think Carwin has cardio issues ? Because he threw who knows how many power punches against lesner and gassed himself out trying to finish ? Anyone who threw punches like that would gas out .. I really think he has good cardio and has a really good chance of winning this fight.

Thats a good point. I still like JDS though. If carwin wins, it will be because of his wrestling not his striking though.

[sirchadwick1]

Carwin has never shown good cardio b/c he hasn't made it past the 1st round except for the fight against Brock.
Even Carwin himself knew he had issues and worked on them. The thing is... you don't improve drastically in a year, especially after a major surgery.

[Vaughany]

Carwin deserves to be KO'd by a JDS uppercut after witnessing his cringe acting in the countdown show!... "This isn't going to be a fight, (snigger) THIS IS GOING TO BE A WAR"!!!! Good GOD, get Heyman the **** out of here!

[Vaughany]

Carwin has never shown good cardio b/c he hasn't made it past the 1st round except for the fight against Brock.
Even Carwin himself knew he had issues and worked on them. The thing is... you don't improve drastically in a year, especially after a major surgery.

His final words on the countdown show should of been.... "KNOCK OUT, GAS OUT...EITHER WAY WORKS FOR ME"!

[kmdubya]

Yep he's ruined his niche. I re-watched all his fights today, it didn't take long, his foot work is terrible, his boxing is average. All he really had going for him is incredible one punch knock out power, lets hope he still has that. If he doesn't he better have vastly improved some other aspect of his game.

Despite of all that I still put money on him. What can I say, I'm a sucker for underdogs.

I was rewatching both of their old fights and I think I've flip-flopped. Carwin's cardio doesn't bother me, but his speed does. JDS is so much faster and if he works a boxing stick and move for the first, he'll find opportunties to tag Carwin.

I'm rethinking my heavy Carwin bets now. Should be a great tilt regardless.

[LayingThe$Down]

If Carwin tries to take this fight down, can dos Santos stop the takedowns? dos Santos has never fought a wrestler, so his wrestling skills are a huge unknown (Roy blew out his knee in the first round in their fight, so that fight gives us little info).

We all know it's far more difficult to strike effectively against a guy trying to take you down, too. Until now, dos Santos could tee off against most opponents with few worries about takedowns. But this may be different. And that may make a large difference in his striking performance.

Has Carwin worked on his conditioning? He says he has modifies his diet and training in an effort to do so. But who knows for sure?

Carwin has been fighting with those nagging injuries for the last 2 or 3 years. Now he says he is 100%. Will he look better as a result? Or will the surgery and layoff impact him negatively?

Tough fight to call with Carwin coming off surgery, dos Santos lack of experience against wrestlers of Carwin's caliber, and both guys having pure KO power.

I would go with Carwin at + money. If he fights smart, and has decent cardio, he can keep dos Santos guessing. He can keep dos Santos off-balance, may even lay on top of him and GnP, or keep him locked up in the clinch like he did to Mir.

Carwin could shut down dos Santos with a good gameplan much better and easier than dos Santos can shut down the offense of Carwin.

Lots of unknowns, though. But Carwin at + money is not a bad bet imo.

But we'll see.

[jin2daj]

i think carwin can win by just pressing jds against the cage. and going in for some short punches like he did against mir.

[Pin2Win]

Carwin ussually uses his wrestling skills to defend takedowns and keep the fight standing but I like him in this fight cause he has the striking ability and if it doesn't go his way (and I don't see Carwin out striking JDS) he can bring the fight to the ground... Does anyone know how JDS' TD defense is?

[omalley21]

Jds got taken down by gonzaga for a moment and popped right back up. (as did carwin when he fought gonzaga) Jds has great hips. His td defense is helped by the fact that he's not a kicker like pettis so he won't be as easy to take down while striking. Also he has great footwork. I'd be surprised if Carwin can get him down, even more so if he can keep him down.

[DDT]

I think Dos Santos will take this one

[v1y]

-155 is much better than I thought I'd get. Went pretty big on it.