Convince Me Either Way On Roy Nelson vs Frank Mir

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  • koscheckbaby
    SBR MVP
    • 04-05-10
    • 1314

    #1
    Convince Me Either Way On Roy Nelson vs Frank Mir
    The odds for this fight are virtually identical. At first thought, images of Mir wilting once the fight didn't go his way popped into my head, getting pounded by Freeman, Pe-De-Pano, Vera, Lesnar, and Carwin. Then, images of his impressive dispatching of Cheick Kongo and Nog pop into my head. I think of how Roy Nelson has went to close decisions with way lesser fighters than Mir such as Ben Rothwell, Jeff Monson, and Justin Wren on TUF. But also, I think of how Roy Nelson showed worlds of heart against JDS, taking a pounding for 3 rounds, the same heart that Mir could never show. Mir usually does his damage quick and early, finishing a majority of his fights in the first round. Nelson is not the type to be finished easily. He is a high level BJJ black belt and he just showed an insane chin vs JDS. Standup wise though, I feel like Mir is much faster and more fluid than Nelson. His standup has really come a long way.

    I dunno, I'm vexed here. I can't really feel this fight out. I feel like Mir is the better fighter skill wise, but Nelson has intangibles that could put him over the top, especially at HW, heart, chin, and KO power.
  • shady610
    SBR MVP
    • 01-12-06
    • 1570

    #2
    Mir is more talented with submissions and is the most aggressive submission fighter in the ufc. combine that with his motivation to stay relevant in the division, he will pull out a 2nd round sub.
    Comment
    • Vaughany
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 03-07-10
      • 45563

      #3
      Originally posted by shady610
      Mir is more talented with submissions and is the most aggressive submission fighter in the ufc. combine that with his motivation to stay relevant in the division, he will pull out a 2nd round sub.
      The only way he pulls off a sub is if he drops Nelson and then follows up with a sub but as we've seen Nelson has a solid chin. ANd u say motivation to stay relevant in the division, but Mir has already said that he doesn't think this fight helps either of them get further to a title shot and didn't really want to take the fight because of that reason and because he and Nelson are buddies. Never know what to expect from Mir and his mental game has always been a concern.
      Comment
      • illmatick
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 01-05-09
        • 5456

        #4
        Nelson by decision at +479 is descent value imo.

        The difference in price for the TKo props is interesting.

        Mir by Tko +444
        Nelson by tko only at +250

        Granite vs. Glass , hehe.
        Comment
        • v1y
          SBR MVP
          • 05-02-11
          • 1138

          #5
          i highly doubt this is going to the ground. mir's size is going to be too much for nelson to bring him there, and mir's takedowns are technically horrible making it very unlikely he gets roy down.

          standup, nelson may have got the worse of things against JDS, but he looked very composed the whole time. mir on the other hand looked horrible against crocop (albeit not much happened in the standup realm). anyways, maybe i'm seriously underrating mir's standup, but i think nelson will crack him for the ko.
          Comment
          • Vaughany
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 03-07-10
            • 45563

            #6
            Originally posted by illmatick
            Nelson by decision at +479 is descent value imo.

            The difference in price for the TKo props is interesting.

            Mir by Tko +444
            Nelson by tko only at +250

            Granite vs. Glass , hehe.
            Agree with Ill, Nelson by dec at +400 or better is good value. Still have doubts about Mir's cardio, nothing happened in the Cro-Cop fight for first 2 rounds so could comfortably go the three rounds, but when he's pressured against the cage he can tire quickly.
            Comment
            • snake11eyes
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 07-28-10
              • 618

              #7
              Originally posted by illmatick
              Nelson by decision at +479 is descent value imo.

              The difference in price for the TKo props is interesting.

              Mir by Tko +444
              Nelson by tko only at +250

              Granite vs. Glass , hehe.
              Im not sure which way I want to go on this fight either, but Nelson by decision isn't looking bad at those odds.
              Comment
              • Dave--M
                SBR Hustler
                • 05-14-11
                • 73

                #8
                id just stay away from it

                way way too unpredictable
                Comment
                • Kaladarus
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-11-09
                  • 1876

                  #9
                  I like Mir here because his belly isn't the home of the whopper. I believe Mir is strong enough and has enough skills to keep this fight where he wants it. I also give him the edge on the feet.
                  Comment
                  • koscheckbaby
                    SBR MVP
                    • 04-05-10
                    • 1314

                    #10
                    I feel like if Nelson wins the fight it'll be by TKO. I feel like if Mir wins the fight, it very much could be a decision, which is weird to say. I have a hard time thinking Nelson by decision, since if he's winning the fight, Mir tends to fold and be finished.
                    Comment
                    • ShogunRua
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-23-09
                      • 4668

                      #11
                      I think this is a perfect fight for Mir to really display his improved standup ability. I don't see Nelson wanting to try to take down Mir, and I don't think Mir can get Roy down, so this will be a standup fight IMO. I expect a lot of leg kicks/jabs from Mir here. Mir by decision.
                      Comment
                      • danso
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-26-10
                        • 2224

                        #12
                        big country by knockout
                        Comment
                        • Hannibal
                          SBR MVP
                          • 05-15-11
                          • 1055

                          #13
                          I think Mir's standup is overrated. His technique and athleticism are lacking. His punches and movement don't feel fluid to me, and while his speed is not that bad, he doesnt have that snap which results in power.
                          Like someone else mentioned, nelson seemed very composed in the fight with dos santos even though he was getting owned.

                          My Play:
                          10 units on Nelson @+110 to win 11 Units
                          7.41 units for fight to go over 2.5 rounds @+135 to win !0 units

                          Its tough to see mir putting nelson away, so i feel like im covered.
                          Comment
                          • freelee
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 02-02-10
                            • 751

                            #14
                            Nelson beat Mir in a jiu jitsu match so he probably has the edge on the mat
                            Comment
                            • omalley21
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 11-08-10
                              • 908

                              #15
                              Im lookin at Nelson by decision +479. Nelson inside the distance is +173.
                              Comment
                              • Vaughany
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 03-07-10
                                • 45563

                                #16
                                Originally posted by freelee
                                Nelson beat Mir in a jiu jitsu match so he probably has the edge on the mat
                                Tht was a long time ago
                                Comment
                                • omalley21
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 11-08-10
                                  • 908

                                  #17
                                  Mir was coming off the motorcycle accident when they grappled i believe.

                                  Also Nelson had a knee injury in his fight JDS. The more I think about it, Roy by TKO is the play.
                                  Comment
                                  • jin2daj
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 11-01-09
                                    • 816

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by freelee
                                    Nelson beat Mir in a jiu jitsu match so he probably has the edge on the mat
                                    i saw a video of that and nelson was no where near as fat as he is now. he was in good shape back then.
                                    Comment
                                    • rocky mattioli
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 08-26-10
                                      • 1263

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by jin2daj
                                      i saw a video of that and nelson was no where near as fat as he is now. he was in good shape back then.
                                      their grappling match was in 2003.....mir`s motorcycle accident was 2004.....


                                      the match was 8 years ago...mir looked in great shape...he dwarfed nelson.....

                                      but he still lost....



                                      interesting...
                                      Comment
                                      • Vaughany
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 03-07-10
                                        • 45563

                                        #20
                                        Mir also lost to Babalu in a grappling exhibition..
                                        Comment
                                        • rocky mattioli
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 08-26-10
                                          • 1263

                                          #21
                                          given all these grappling losses to much smaller guys,now i understand why mir has been working so hard on that stand-up....

                                          seriously...it`s a very interesting fight...i initially figured mir would win this and probably comfortably...but after perusing his record,i`m not as sure as i was.....

                                          aside from him subbing a very green lesnar...and beating up a very old big nog(full credit for those wins,though),mir`s resume isn`t really all that....
                                          i expect the odds to go in mir`s direction,though...not sure what i want to do with this...

                                          tough call
                                          Comment
                                          • Vaughany
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 03-07-10
                                            • 45563

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by rocky mattioli
                                            given all these grappling losses to much smaller guys,now i understand why mir has been working so hard on that stand-up....

                                            seriously...it`s a very interesting fight...i initially figured mir would win this and probably comfortably...but after perusing his record,i`m not as sure as i was.....

                                            aside from him subbing a very green lesnar...and beating up a very old big nog(full credit for those wins,though),mir`s resume isn`t really all that....
                                            i expect the odds to go in mir`s direction,though...not sure what i want to do with this...

                                            tough call
                                            I agree, I think Nelson's odds will only get better closer to fight time, probly won't be drastic though +120 to +130 maybe
                                            Comment
                                            • Poppa Catfish
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 09-22-10
                                              • 3352

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Vaughany
                                              Tht was a long time ago
                                              and without strikes. To me at least when I do jiu jitsu it is a completely different game from friday practice with strikes, and what we saw was Mir able to get half guard the back and side mount a bunch of times without being able to finish early on. I'm not sure why this is such a huge positive for Nelson supporters.

                                              In fact he is only reversed when he goes for the arm bar, something he absolutely does not need to do in mma.

                                              You might want to rethink your approach to your fight, if your sole edge is that Mir was bested in a grappling match by Nelson.
                                              Comment
                                              • rocky mattioli
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 08-26-10
                                                • 1263

                                                #24


                                                heres the actual match.....beginning to end....both lost position going for submissions.....
                                                appeared that nelson just wore mir down and dominated the second half of the match...at least position-wise....some nice transitions....entertaining match....

                                                long time ago...but still surprising to me..
                                                Comment
                                                • Varker
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 04-03-10
                                                  • 283

                                                  #25
                                                  I'm not really expecting this fight to hit the ground.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • GunShard
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 03-05-10
                                                    • 10031

                                                    #26
                                                    I think Mir would take Nelson to the ground and submit him, since Nelson is a striker, Mir is not stupid to keep this fight standing.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Vaughany
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 03-07-10
                                                      • 45563

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by GunShard
                                                      I think Mir would take Nelson to the ground and submit him, since Nelson is a striker, Mir is not stupid to keep this fight standing.
                                                      U think Mir has the wrestling to take Nelson down?!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • The HOFF
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 07-02-08
                                                        • 4847

                                                        #28
                                                        I took Fight Goes to DEC +180 when it came out. I really don't see a finish by either fighter. I really don't think Mir has a glass chin. In the fights he lost to Lesnar and Carwin by TKO, he was just overwhelmed by power shots in a bad position. Eventually he had to give up getting hammered in the face 30 times by those guys.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Vaughany
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 03-07-10
                                                          • 45563

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by The HOFF
                                                          I took Fight Goes to DEC +180 when it came out. I really don't see a finish by either fighter. I really don't think Mir has a glass chin. In the fights he lost to Lesnar and Carwin by TKO, he was just overwhelmed by power shots in a bad position. Eventually he had to give up getting hammered in the face 30 times by those guys.
                                                          Tend to agree that we won't see a flash KO and only a small chance of a TKO. Fight goes distance for me as well is the value play
                                                          Comment
                                                          • nived
                                                            SBR Rookie
                                                            • 05-18-11
                                                            • 1

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by GunShard
                                                            I think Mir would take Nelson to the ground and submit him, since Nelson is a striker, Mir is not stupid to keep this fight standing.
                                                            Is this a serious post?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • GunShard
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 03-05-10
                                                              • 10031

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by nived
                                                              Is this a serious post?
                                                              Just a possiblity. The fight ending in a decision is most likely for this fight.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • sirchadwick1
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 06-02-10
                                                                • 1375

                                                                #32
                                                                I'm taking Nelson via Decision here at +479. Mir definitely doesn't have a glass jaw and we know Big Country has to get hit by a freight train to get rocked. I think Mir's gas tank runs out first and Roy steals the 3rd for sure. This fight is very evenly matched... and it's really hard to convince anyone as to who to take. I am just going with my gut here, as I think Roy is still slightly underrated. And I like +479 over Mir by DEC at +320.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Straight Cash
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 11-20-09
                                                                  • 2202

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Dave--M
                                                                  id just stay away from it

                                                                  way way too unpredictable
                                                                  Agreed, this is a tossup.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • RaiderNation MMA
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 11-05-10
                                                                    • 598

                                                                    #34
                                                                    nelson stand up looked alright against jds, i really think he will beat mir. plus roy putt him in a grappling match if i not mistaken
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • NickBaragona
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 01-29-09
                                                                      • 555

                                                                      #35
                                                                      I am definitely leaning towards Nelson more after reading this thread.
                                                                      Comment
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