Bellator 44

[JuicedUp]

Saturday May 14th

[JuicedUp]

Decent little card here for Bellator. Not the worst I've seen anyway. Anyone have an edge on this Chandler vs Freire fight? Tough one to call here. I'm leaning towards the stud wrestler at this point.

[Kaladarus]

Decent little card here for Bellator. Not the worst I've seen anyway. Anyone have an edge on this Chandler vs Freire fight? Tough one to call here. I'm leaning towards the stud wrestler at this point.

I agree with the Chandler pick. I was hoping to get him at a +number though.

[JuicedUp]

I have a feeling chandler will be the dog here soon.

[terpkeg]

Sam Orepeza looked good when I saw him in NJ in February. Long, lanky frame for 170. Seemed to be very comfortable standing attacking with all eight points.

Anyone know much about Karavackas?

Chandler just wseems to one dimensional for me to back. But, its hard for me to go against the young wrestling prosepcts in Bellator. Seems I have been on the losing end of to many decisions the last two years going against wrestlers here.

Dont know how Friere's td defense will hold up, but he does seem very dangerous. And, Chandler seems to take too much punushment trying to implement his limited game. Curious as to where this line goes.

[urge2kill]

I have a feeling chandler will be the dog here soon.

Why's that?

[bogbat]

Oh nice! Forgot that there was a Hector Lombard fight coming up.

[JuicedUp]

Why's that?

Just felt like patricky coming off some impressive finishes would get more love. He has some hype right now.

[Vaughany]

Just felt like patricky coming off some impressive finishes would get more love. He has some hype right now.

Chandler was +120 dog when the line came out.

[JuicedUp]

Chandler was +120 dog when the line came out.

Makes sense. I think it will hit +120 again, you?

[Vaughany]

Makes sense. I think it will hit +120 again, you?

Possibly by saturday night, tho I wouldnt be surprised to see some late line movement either way on Saturday.
I like Chandler in this one but I only see a decision win so Im loathe to play him straight up, wish we could get props for Bellator.

[PunisherIND]

Possibly by saturday night, tho I wouldnt be surprised to see some late line movement either way on Saturday.
I like Chandler in this one but I only see a decision win so Im loathe to play him straight up, wish we could get props for Bellator.

agreed, wish they had props for bellator b/c freire-chandler will likely go to decision. do you know if they will have an "over 2.5 rounds" line?

[Vaughany]

agreed, wish they had props for bellator b/c freire-chandler will likely go to decision. do you know if they will have an "over 2.5 rounds" line?

Don't think they even do that, I've never noticed it before, worth checking tho tomorrow or sat.

[PunisherIND]

Don't think they even do that, I've never noticed it before, worth checking tho tomorrow or sat.

damnit. i'm going to be at this event live and was hoping to make a large play to keep things interesting. freire-chandler to go the distance was the only play i would be confident enough to make a large wager. not enough value on hektor at -500, and i dont know enough about the other fighters to wager a big amount.

going to wait and see if 5dimes releases an "over 2.5" line. fingers crossed.

[omalley21]

They don't do props for Bellator. I think you will get Chandler at +120 by fight time though.

[PunisherIND]

They don't do props for Bellator. I think you will get Chandler at +120 by fight time though.

i know they dont offer props, but i dont think the "over 2.5 rounds" line is considered a prop. they usually have it right next to the moneyline. but im not sure if they even offer the 2.5 line for bellator. going to wait and see.

[sirchadwick1]

The Pitbull/Chandler fight is one that I'm having a real hard time calling, so I will most likely stay away unless either guy reaches +140 which is unlikely here. I think Chandler could get the nod by controlling Freire for a couple rounds, but he is a little sloppy setting up takedowns and Patricky seems good at reading them. Another flying knee KO is a possibility here for him. I don't have enough knowledge on Patricky to know how well he will handle Chandler on his back. If this fight stays on the feet, it's an easy win for Patricky imo. I could see this one going to a split decision though and I don't want to be on the 'bent over' end of the deal. Now if the over 2.5 shows up at a decent price... I'll make a play.

[NunyaBidness]

Money pouring in on Brett Cooper, anyone know why? Injury?

[koscheckbaby]

I can't possibly back Chandler after backing him in the Woodard fight. I felt lucky to win. All Chandler did was takedowns and pointless hold downs with zero ground and pound. The only moment of the fight was Woodard getting a sweep and a near finish before the end of the 2nd round. Chandler seems extremely green to me at this point and I feel like he should and deserves to lose to guy like Freire. But one dimensional wrestling has owned Bellator with guys like Joe Warren and Ben Askren winning all the time. It'd seem dumb to go against Chandler. But I'm not going on him.

Conclusion, no bet.

[Kaladarus]

Money pouring in on Brett Cooper, anyone know why? Injury?

No idea what's going on here, but I didn't see this coming.

[sundin4prez]

i have been making more money then i ever have on mma by simply betting on stud wrestlers... so chandler it is

[rocky mattioli]

The Pitbull/Chandler fight is one that I'm having a real hard time calling, so I will most likely stay away unless either guy reaches +140 which is unlikely here. I think Chandler could get the nod by controlling Freire for a couple rounds, but he is a little sloppy setting up takedowns and Patricky seems good at reading them. Another flying knee KO is a possibility here for him. I don't have enough knowledge on Patricky to know how well he will handle Chandler on his back. If this fight stays on the feet, it's an easy win for Patricky imo. I could see this one going to a split decision though and I don't want to be on the 'bent over' end of the deal. Now if the over 2.5 shows up at a decent price... I'll make a play.

good observation...love dominating wrestlers but very impressed with freiere`s stand-up vs mccullough.....and those flying knees?....

tough pick...very (pa)tricky....

[Vaughany]

good observation...love dominating wrestlers but very impressed with freiere`s stand-up vs mccullough.....and those flying knees?....

tough pick...very (pa)tricky....

[Ladle]

Unless Chandler has an otherworldly chin which we don't know about, I think Freire will stop him at some point. Dude brings the violence.

tough pick...very (pa)tricky....

[rocky mattioli]

Unless Chandler has an otherworldly chin which we don't know about, I think Freire will stop him at some point. Dude brings the violence.

i hate betting against top notch wrestlers...but i`m coming around on this one.....i think you might be on to something mr L.....i`m seeing +120 at 5 dimes and i`m strongly considering joining you........

edit....just watched willamy freire beat patricky by putting him on his back for long stretches.....

not good..http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inwk3...eature=related

[koscheckbaby]

Patricky is starting to tempt me now that there's + in front of his odds. As I see it, he has 15 minutes to find a finish. Chandler needs 15 minutes to basically hold on. Had Woodard got that sweep any earlier in that round, Chandler is out of this tournament with a loss.

[JuicedUp]

Chandler -160 at 5dimes now. I thought this line would go in the opposite direction. Perhaps just wishful thinking on my part.

[koscheckbaby]

Think it's just a case of bettors going with the "When in doubt, take the wrestler" mentality. Freire is unquestionably the better fighter. It's just a question of whether he has the style to win versus a relentless wrestler. We know Chandler isn't going to mess around. He'll be going for the takedowns all fight long.

[Vaughany]

Think it's just a case of bettors going with the "When in doubt, take the wrestler" mentality. Freire is unquestionably the better fighter. It's just a question of whether he has the style to win versus a relentless wrestler. We know Chandler isn't going to mess around. He'll be going for the takedowns all fight long.

Yeah and coming from a Couture camp removes any doubt that he may make the mistake of standing with Freire for too long (will be programmed in to him to look for the takedown) and of course means he'll have had a solid training camp in general. I guess the precedence that other rather one-dimensional wrestlers have set also influences people's motive behind taking somebody like Chandler over a guy like Freire who has better stand-up and BJJ.

[sirchadwick1]

Patrick at +140 was a no brainer for me. This is a very close fight and I think he can get the finish.

[snake11eyes]

Add another one to Patricky at +140. I wonder if it will get higher. Probably not. Get it now.

[koscheckbaby]

What's the take on Schlemenko-Cooper? I've heard lots of stuff in support of Cooper as the dog. I'm starting to think the line has gotten low enough to get on Schlemenko. If for nothing else, Cooper has a recent TKO loss to Waachim Spiritwolf. That guy sucks and is just wild. If Spiritwolf can finish him, why the hell couldn't Schlemenko, who has better wins to his credit, unquestionable finishing ability, and his recent loss is a 5 round decision to beastly Hector Lombard?

[Vaughany]

What's the take on Schlemenko-Cooper? I've heard lots of stuff in support of Cooper as the dog. I'm starting to think the line has gotten low enough to get on Schlemenko. If for nothing else, Cooper has a recent TKO loss to Waachim Spiritwolf. That guy sucks and is just wild. If Spiritwolf can finish him, why the hell couldn't Schlemenko, who has better wins to his credit, unquestionable finishing ability, and his recent loss is a 5 round decision to beastly Hector Lombard?

Schlemenko should be able to take Cooper out with his diverse striking but I wouldn't play it at anything worse than -150. In the Jared Hess fight he was taken down numerous times and was down by two rounds before Hess tore his knee in the last round. But then he went and finished Bryan Baker in the first round and showed great resiliency against Lombard and managed to take the last round. The Hess and Lombard fights all showed that Schlemenko has an aggressive ground game and is good at setting-up submissions but just not great at executing them yet. However, perhaps this fight will be perfect for him to showcase a more clinical submission game if Cooper does take him down.

[Alt75]

I put Patricky in a multi this morning at $1.84, now he's at $2.25 and this is all due to money coming in on Chandler?

He didn't have any trouble making weight and I can't find any mention of injury or illness.

[illmatick]

Schlemenko should be able to take Cooper out with his diverse striking but I wouldn't play it at anything worse than -150. In the Jared Hess fight he was taken down numerous times and was down by two rounds before Hess tore his knee in the last round. But then he went and finished Bryan Baker in the first round and showed great resiliency against Lombard and managed to take the last round. The Hess and Lombard fights all showed that Schlemenko has an aggressive ground game and is good at setting-up submissions but just not great at executing them yet. However, perhaps this fight will be perfect for him to showcase a more clinical submission game if Cooper does take him down.

Agree . Schlemnko is surprisingly active off of his back. Hard to say how much of that is already factored into the line. I think his striking pedigree makes it a bit easier for the linemakers to overlook the progress he has shown on the ground.

-160 seems around fair value. Hard to say where the late money will fall in this one. Sharps have already attacked both sides.