PAUL WILLIAMS over SERGIO MARTINEZ?

[kball15]

New here, but long time reader and been betting on BOXING for many years.

The first fight between Williams and Martinez was obviously very close and competitive. The 2nd one should be similar.

BUT, people seem to be forgetting that Williams was SUPPOSED to be fighting Kelly Pavlik before Pavlik withdrew due to injury. Martinez replaced him with about 2 or 3 weeks to go.

Thats not enough time to go from training to fight a basic orthodox fighter to training to fight one of the slickest and quickest southpaws around.

And sure, Martinez was also brought in on short notice, but Paul williams isn't a complicated guy to fight. He is a southpaw that fights like an orthodox fighter. That is to say, he comes forwards and brawls. Isnt slick at all and doesn't use his height advantage.

With a full training camp this time, I think Paul Williams stands to fair a bit better this time around. Not to mention, I think Judges will favor him because he tends to throw more punches and comes forward.

I like Williams by decision.

Thoughts?

[kball15]

Although the fact that Martinez just became middleweight champ, and theres the adage that once you bcome champ your become 20% better or w.e due to confidence.

But he has been champ before in other divisions so i doubt thats true.

[Varker]

i'm going with martinez

[Handjuice]

i'm not betting on either guy to win. Judges do love guys who throw lots of punches though, so Williams doesn't sound like a bad bet.

I can see this fight going either way. I was thinking of making a play on the fight starting the 12th round perhaps, the one thing holding me back is the possibility of Williams getting stopped on cuts. I'll proably just a make a small play on it.

[kball15]

i'm not betting on either guy to win. Judges do love guys who throw lots of punches though, so Williams doesn't sound like a bad bet.

I can see this fight going either way. I was thinking of making a play on the fight starting the 12th round perhaps, the one thing holding me back is the possibility of Williams getting stopped on cuts. I'll proably just a make a small play on it.

I can't really see a stoppage IMO. This is more then likely a distance fight

[Landscaper]

cant wait to watch this fight should be great again

[Handjuice]

I can't really see a stoppage IMO. This is more then likely a distance fight

paul williams cuts very easily, and after seeing the way Martinez sliced Pavliks face open i am a little suspicious that he will do the same to Williams. It will probably go the distance though.

[rocky mattioli]

this is supposedly a middleweight title fight(apparently martinez` belt) being fought at a catchweight of 158.......williams demanded it be at 158....i find that a bit odd.....

right now i`m slightly leaning martinez...but i`m not committing yet...

i have to read a little more and re-watch the first fight...

g.l.

[kball15]

this is supposedly a middleweight title fight(apparently martinez` belt) being fought at a catchweight of 158.......williams demanded it be at 158....i find that a bit odd.....

right now i`m slightly leaning martinez...but i`m not committing yet...

i have to read a little more and re-watch the first fight...

g.l.

Frankly, the catchweight pisses me off. Williams couldn't give away 2 pounds so that this fight could be a LEGIT middleweight title fight? This is for the LINEAL middlweight championship.

And i also think think the -2 pounds favors Martinez.

Martinez said it wasnt a problem AT ALL though, so I'm not worried about that

paul williams cuts very easily, and after seeing the way Martinez sliced Pavliks face open i am a little suspicious that he will do the same to Williams. It will probably go the distance though.

yea but stoppages on cuts have so many different factors. ref, ringside doctor, depth/placement of cut... etc

Fights are RARELY stopped from cuts that are caused by punches. almost never.

[rocky mattioli]

at least they`re both lefties...if it were lefty/righty(given styles) you could almost guarantee a cut....

williams doesn`t use his height...and i wasn`t crazy about his effort vs cintron...

[illmatick]

Dwyer talks a little about the weight cut here, gonna keep a real close eye on how he looks at the weigh-ins, might buy back on Paul if Sergio looks gaunt.

[Boddhissatva]

I'm not touching this fight because I know it's going to be a war and a candidate for fight of the year. I had the first fight a Draw (maybe giving slight edge to Williams).

[Czu81]

New here, but long time reader and been betting on BOXING for many years.

The first fight between Williams and Martinez was obviously very close and competitive. The 2nd one should be similar.

BUT, people seem to be forgetting that Williams was SUPPOSED to be fighting Kelly Pavlik before Pavlik withdrew due to injury. Martinez replaced him with about 2 or 3 weeks to go.

Thats not enough time to go from training to fight a basic orthodox fighter to training to fight one of the slickest and quickest southpaws around.

And sure, Martinez was also brought in on short notice, but Paul williams isn't a complicated guy to fight. He is a southpaw that fights like an orthodox fighter. That is to say, he comes forwards and brawls. Isnt slick at all and doesn't use his height advantage.

With a full training camp this time, I think Paul Williams stands to fair a bit better this time around. Not to mention, I think Judges will favor him because he tends to throw more punches and comes forward.

I like Williams by decision.

Thoughts?

That was my thoughts too...

Go Punisher!!!

[HauntingTheHoly]

Dwyer talks a little about the weight cut here, gonna keep a real close eye on how he looks at the weigh-ins, might buy back on Paul if Sergio looks gaunt.

Dwyer never talks about units won/lost, I think for good reason. It'd be tremendous amount of work since he has so many videos up, but someone could probably go back and "bet" one unit on each bet he advises and see where he stands today. My prediction is that he's even at BEST. Maybe some of us could divide the work up and do it? I'd be in.

I always watch Dwyer's videos and consider them worth a small amount, but overall I don't feel he's as good as I am. He straddles every goddam fight and I know he's been bitten in the ass plenty of times for doing so. His straddles are often -EV. He also plays personal favorites a bit, despite honest attempts to not be biased. For example he picked Roy Jones to beat Calzaghe. Need I say more? I almost never bet a -300 or worse, but when I saw Joe at ONLY -330, I made the biggest bet I'd made in a while.

[bruce_outside]

i lean towards martinez because i think he is the better all around fighter. he will adjust better than paul, who only fights one way (not really a knock--I love the way he fights). but not commiting yet either. espn had a story about a week ago saying martinez was way heavy.

[kball15]

yea martinez was at like 176 a few weeks ago. idk... we'll see

[rocky mattioli]

reading some stuff about the martinez` weight cut.....he is 35.....and the promotion seems to favor williams..that crazy-wide card for williams in the first fight is a red flag for me...

probably not touching this...i`ll do as i usually do and look for something interesting on the undercard.....

thankfully,we aren`t obligated to wager on toss-up fights...

[Handjuice]

Dwyer never talks about units won/lost, I think for good reason. It'd be tremendous amount of work since he has so many videos up, but someone could probably go back and "bet" one unit on each bet he advises and see where he stands today. My prediction is that he's even at BEST. Maybe some of us could divide the work up and do it? I'd be in.

I always watch Dwyer's videos and consider them worth a small amount, but overall I don't feel he's as good as I am. He straddles every goddam fight and I know he's been bitten in the ass plenty of times for doing so. His straddles are often -EV. He also plays personal favorites a bit, despite honest attempts to not be biased. For example he picked Roy Jones to beat Calzaghe. Need I say more? I almost never bet a -300 or worse, but when I saw Joe at ONLY -330, I made the biggest bet I'd made in a while.

Dwyer is a knowlegable guy and i enjoy his insight, he was one of the few guys to Pick Pirog over Jacobs so he does know his stuff.

I agree though he does have some bias, he loves to pick underdogs to win fights when it's obvious that the underdog doesn't have much of a chance like Rafael Marquez,Margarito,Foreman over Cotto etc. I just see him as more of an analyst than a gambler imo.

[Ian]

Dwyer is a knowlegable guy and i enjoy his insight, he was one of the few guys to Pick Pirog over Jacobs so he does know his stuff.

I agree though he does have some bias, he loves to pick underdogs to win fights when it's obvious that the underdog doesn't have much of a chance like Rafael Marquez,Margarito,Foreman over Cotto etc. I just see him as more of an analyst than a gambler imo.

Dwyer is a clown. He makes at least one completely moronic statement on every video I've seen of his. I made the mistake of clicking on his video for this fight, and he said that he didn't bet the first fight when Martinez was a huge dog because he thought Martinez's chance of winning was only 50/50. I think people give him credit because he presents himself as if he knows what he's talking about. People who take him seriously should remember that when advises making his moronic "straddle bets" he speaks with the same heir of authority that he does when gives his opinion on fighters.

[ddream1]

williams looked a little bothered in his last fight, he appeared to be getting hit a little to easily. williams does punch alot especially late rounds but martinez hits cleaner and harder and moves better, i think with mart being a lefty and knowing what he has to do this time around + how i saw williams bothered in the ciltron fight i think mart wins. plus he's the champ has to count for something here. the weight isuue is valid, but he knows its going the distance his game plan will be to hit faster then harder were in the 1st fight it was harder first. should be awesome!!1 passsing but -290 ov9.5 looks interesting to me

[kball15]

Final Prediction: Williams by Decision at +200. I probably WONT bet it though. To close of a call

[illmatick]

Dwyer never talks about units won/lost, I think for good reason. It'd be tremendous amount of work since he has so many videos up, but someone could probably go back and "bet" one unit on each bet he advises and see where he stands today. My prediction is that he's even at BEST. Maybe some of us could divide the work up and do it? I'd be in.

I always watch Dwyer's videos and consider them worth a small amount, but overall I don't feel he's as good as I am. He straddles every goddam fight and I know he's been bitten in the ass plenty of times for doing so. His straddles are often -EV. He also plays personal favorites a bit, despite honest attempts to not be biased. For example he picked Roy Jones to beat Calzaghe. Need I say more? I almost never bet a -300 or worse, but when I saw Joe at ONLY -330, I made the biggest bet I'd made in a while.

I can almost guarantee you that Dwyer's plays have done well in 2010..agree about a lot of his straddles being -ev but he has an incredible track record with upset picks( from what I've seen)

you have to remember he bets mostly underdogs so he's bound to get a lot of predictions wrong. I don't always agree with him though... most recently his under 10.5 round bet in the Froch/Abraham fight.

Ian...I don't watch Dwyer's videos for his opinion on math in relation to gambling, pretty sure I can take care of that myself. of course he says some moronic things at times but I still value his opinion......Like Handjuice said, it's best to view him as an analyst rather than a gambler.

[kball15]

I can almost guarantee you that Dwyer's plays have done well in 2010..agree about a lot of his straddles being -ev but he has an incredible track record with upset picks( from what I've seen)

you have to remember he bets mostly underdogs so he's bound to get a lot of predictions wrong. I don't always agree with him though... most recently his under 10.5 round bet in the Froch/Abraham fight.

Ian...I don't watch Dwyer's videos for his opinion on math in relation to gambling, pretty sure I can take care of that myself. of course he says some moronic things at times but I still value his opinion......Like Handjuice said, it's best to view him as an analyst rather than a gambler.

its because he picks ridiculous upsets a lot of the time. Like he picked Margarito over pacquiao...

[Ian]

you have to remember he bets mostly underdogs

I don't waste my time watching many of his videos, but of the ones I've seen one of the most consistently stupid aspects of his videos is that he'll state that he thinks a massive favorite is likely to win. IIRC the bout between Saul Alvarez and Jose Miguel Cotto was once of these instances. It doesn't take much of an analyst to say a -1100 favorite is likely to win. Of course, he doesn't say whether he thinks betting the favorite vs. a -1100 line is a smart idea, instead he takes 10 minutes to say something that anybody could have figured out in 2 seconds if they just looked at the line.