mma sat: strikeforce

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  • ddream1
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 02-18-10
    • 695

    #1
    mma sat: strikeforce
    mma ytd: 43W-30L +$465.01

    Cung li -270 $75
    **scott smith is just one of those guys who we see every year on some playoff run team where he comes off the bench and makes magic. he is less than average of a fighter who packs an incredible punch and somehow despite being in horrible situations pulls out the homerun. Last time out against cung li we saw smith limited with cung's fast and powerful legs kicks. as the fight went on cung started to fade down and before we could blink he was rocked. this time out cung will be better prepared with a full camp(no hollywood) and his cardio will be up to par. his offensive plan really needs no changes. he can at will circle and strike until he chops smith down to nothing. i expect a faster and stronger approach this time around and see no reason to bet against him. this play if anything is more of a feel play on what i saw last tie and how i perceive there skill set.

    F.werdum +450 $25
    **if anything i have seen form fedor his last 4 fights is that his opponents are capable of closing the gap and getting inside. form this point fedor is not as dangerous and really the only safe place for werdum to be when trying to take this down. his options of the takedown or pulling guard are good and if he is struggling i like his size and clinch work to slow the pace and maybe even work the fence a little. if he gets it down there is no reason to believe he cannot do what he does best and should he be fighting off his back he has the size, skills, knowledge and active guard to try up fedor and maybe, just maybe catch him. lets face it, in almost all of his fights fedor has given up his range and been placed in highly defensive positions. werdum has been around has enough striking to hang around to gain the position he needs. i like the value here, simply put fedor finds ways to win, this time around if he opens himself up he may be on his back with a guy who is alot bigger. takening the chance.

    goodluck.
  • clarkd32
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 09-15-06
    • 863

    #2
    i'll be on werdum as well at those odds. good luck. thanks for the writeups.
    Comment
    • playa420
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 03-09-08
      • 881

      #3
      theres no way in hell fedor is gonna lose to werdum. Werdums not gonna be able to submit or ko fedor, and i really doubt hes gonna be able to get a decicion.Really bad matchup for werdum.If you look at the common opponents Werdum lost to Minotauro and Arlovski, while Fedor dominated Minotauro several times and KO'd Arlovski.
      Comment
      • Vrakas
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 02-27-10
        • 627

        #4
        someone is doomed in the matchup and its not going to be fedor.
        Comment
        • SweatySombrero
          SBR High Roller
          • 03-20-10
          • 140

          #5
          [COLOR=#000000 ! important]someone is doomed in the matchup and its not going to be fedor.[/COLOR]







          O yeah. all the time.




          They are fighting in his empire, there can only be one emperor and he is the last of all the time
          Comment
          • JuicedUp
            SBR MVP
            • 01-20-10
            • 3396

            #6
            GL bro. Takes balls to go against Fedor in this one.
            Comment
            • southmadejd
              SBR MVP
              • 08-27-09
              • 1059

              #7
              I agree, it does take balls. But it also is only for $25 so I think it is worth the risk for him. I still don't think he will win though.
              Comment
              • bogbat
                SBR MVP
                • 03-21-10
                • 1843

                #8
                is there a prop out yet for Werdum via decision? Probably more value in that.
                Comment
                • JuicedUp
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-20-10
                  • 3396

                  #9
                  Originally posted by bogbat
                  is there a prop out yet for Werdum via decision? Probably more value in that.
                  Werdum by 3 round decision. +867
                  Comment
                  • westerner
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 05-02-10
                    • 164

                    #10
                    Originally posted by JuicedUp
                    GL bro. Takes balls to go against Fedor in this one.
                    Only if you haven't been watching fights... like everyone who is writing off Werdum. He is probably the most talented fighter Fedor has ever fought and also he is one of, if not the most mentally strong too. Thats a huge deal.

                    Fedor used to win in a second with his transcendental speed and explosion which he clearly has less of now that he's gotten older. Werdum is better technically in every area except punching.
                    Comment
                    • westerner
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 05-02-10
                      • 164

                      #11
                      Originally posted by JuicedUp
                      Werdum by 3 round decision. +867
                      damn that is delicious
                      Comment
                      • ddream1
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 02-18-10
                        • 695

                        #12
                        thx for all the great responses. i agree with everyone here. fedor should win, on paper he can keep his ground and do his thing, but i really haven't liked everyone closing the distance, all those fighters had no advantage anywhere so it had to stay on the feet BUT werdum has the ability to even this fight out on the ground and either neutralize or take the advantage(if he gets it down). i really believe he can close the gap and just clinch. he is bigger and has great core strength. ne reason way he cannot even allow fedor to judo toss him down. off the ground he is so dangerous and if i recall didn't rogers even reserve off his back. it just seems there is always a point in a fedor match now that becomes open. werdum is good, fedor is better i'm really pumped.

                        off note, this is fedor' most important match to date. all the hype now with ufc and overeem. its his last contract fight and he has the champ openly challenging him he has dana calling him out and he has doubters wondering why he haven't seen the big fights. i think he has to win this fight to set up the big stage fight we all have been waiting for.
                        Comment
                        • Kaladarus
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-11-09
                          • 1876

                          #13
                          Originally posted by SweatySombrero
                          [COLOR=#000000 ! important]someone is doomed in the matchup and its not going to be fedor.[/COLOR]







                          O yeah. all the time.




                          They are fighting in his empire, there can only be one emperor and he is the last of all the time
                          Not much more that can be said other than that. Fabricio isn't big enough to just throw Fedor around and while he does have a good ground game, you can pretty much forget about a submission happening to Fedor. The only one that can possibly get submitted in this fight is Fabricio after he takes a beating. Fighters that have never been submitted and have many submission wins are unlikely to be submitted. This one will probably not end in one. Like the people above said the only way Fabricio wins this is by decision, but it's unlikely this will happen considering Fedor's advantages.
                          Comment
                          • southmadejd
                            SBR MVP
                            • 08-27-09
                            • 1059

                            #14
                            Originally posted by westerner
                            Only if you haven't been watching fights... like everyone who is writing off Werdum. He is probably the most talented fighter Fedor has ever fought and also he is one of, if not the most mentally strong too. Thats a huge deal.

                            Fedor used to win in a second with his transcendental speed and explosion which he clearly has less of now that he's gotten older. Werdum is better technically in every area except punching.
                            Are you basing this statement off of his devastating knockout win over Rogers or Arlovski? Because both of those punches looked really fuking fast. I love great insight like this. Fedor is "clearly" slower now. Fedor never won in a second, he had some quick wins but I have seen Fedor in trouble in a bunch of his fight and I think that is why so many people love him. He always capitalizes on an opportunity to win. And he finishes most of his fights.
                            Comment
                            • ufcmma36
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-22-10
                              • 1065

                              #15
                              Fedor also has phenemonal ground defense! He passed and did what he wanted on the ground with Nog numerous times... Yea it may have been some years back, but I dont see Werdum being able to sub him or even come close ... If there was some chance in hell I'd say rear naked choke thats it!
                              Comment
                              • Shane
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 02-28-10
                                • 466

                                #16
                                I agree. Rear naked choke is the only positive outcome for Werdum I can think of.
                                Comment
                                • JuicedUp
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-20-10
                                  • 3396

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by westerner
                                  Only if you haven't been watching fights... like everyone who is writing off Werdum. He is probably the most talented fighter Fedor has ever fought and also he is one of, if not the most mentally strong too. Thats a huge deal.

                                  Fedor used to win in a second with his transcendental speed and explosion which he clearly has less of now that he's gotten older. Werdum is better technically in every area except punching.
                                  how much did you put on werdum?
                                  Comment
                                  • ddream1
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 02-18-10
                                    • 695

                                    #18
                                    again guys all great points but the way i see this is werdum is the only guy that brings a new dimension to fedor in 4 years. he isn't stupid and has faced strikers before and won(overeem, vera, gonzaga, fedor bro, silva) and i believe out of his 4 defeats i think it was dos antos that dropped him, his other loses were all decisions including nog and arlosvki, so i think he can hang. i realize fedor is the elite fighter but werdum has trained chute for years and his stand-up knowledge and positioning has grown. i think he can angle his position to bring fedor in. again this fight will be won by the clinch. werdum will close the gap and i believe he weights on fedor or allows fedor to put him on his back. from there i agree fedor tough to sub but thats the start werdum needs and the long he is there the better chance he has to win then standing with fedor. its about werdum getting this fight to a position thats more 2-1 then 4-1.
                                    Comment
                                    • JohnGalt2341
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 12-31-09
                                      • 9138

                                      #19
                                      Fedor by Sub is +869 at 5Dimes. I can't pass that up. At +869 anything can happen.
                                      Comment
                                      • GoldRush7
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 04-27-09
                                        • 2014

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by JohnGalt2341
                                        Fedor by Sub is +869 at 5Dimes. I can't pass that up. At +869 anything can happen.

                                        Definitely can't pass that one up. good find
                                        Comment
                                        • ddream1
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 02-18-10
                                          • 695

                                          #21
                                          2-0 +187.50
                                          ytd: 45-30 +$652.51
                                          Comment
                                          • JuicedUp
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-20-10
                                            • 3396

                                            #22
                                            Good calls dream.
                                            Comment
                                            • Eccocide
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 01-12-09
                                              • 2126

                                              #23
                                              Nice job dream. I actually dreamt Werdum won last night and thought to myself "I guess thats why they call them dreams" but he did it lol.
                                              Comment
                                              • ddream1
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 02-18-10
                                                • 695

                                                #24
                                                lol.
                                                thx guys. nice night of fights
                                                Comment
                                                • westerner
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 05-02-10
                                                  • 164

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by southmadejd
                                                  Are you basing this statement off of his devastating knockout win over Rogers or Arlovski? Because both of those punches looked really fuking fast. I love great insight like this. Fedor is "clearly" slower now. Fedor never won in a second, he had some quick wins but I have seen Fedor in trouble in a bunch of his fight and I think that is why so many people love him. He always capitalizes on an opportunity to win. And he finishes most of his fights.
                                                  Uhh he's been heavily rocked by Fujita, hurt bad by CC who rocked him and damaged him badly over the course of the fight as well, he got swept by Nog, taken down by Coleman, slammed by Randleman, Babalu and Arona both did very well at times..

                                                  He doesn't always capitalize and he makes mistakes sometimes like all fighters. Also, he clearly doesn't move with the same speed and explosion vs say Rogers as he did vs Nog any of those times. Watch the tape and you wouldn't have been surprised.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • jin2daj
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 11-01-09
                                                    • 816

                                                    #26
                                                    great call on werdum!!!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Educ8d Degener8
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 01-12-10
                                                      • 3177

                                                      #27
                                                      lost on my Healy / Werdum parlay that payed handsomely, but hit on my Werdum solo play... woot.

                                                      just wish i would've played Werdum by sub which was +1050... sheeeeit.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • ddream1
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 02-18-10
                                                        • 695

                                                        #28
                                                        man did healy have it wrapped up, thats a tough parlay to lose. i touched that prop very slightly and kicking myself for not puting a bit more on it.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Vaughany
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 03-07-10
                                                          • 45563

                                                          #29
                                                          ha a lot of people who commented how there was no way Fedor could lose have suddenly gone quiet!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Educ8d Degener8
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-12-10
                                                            • 3177

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by ddream1
                                                            man did healy have it wrapped up, thats a tough parlay to lose. i touched that prop very slightly and kicking myself for not puting a bit more on it.
                                                            My SF plays were small and last minute (reason I didn't even bother posting 'em in my standard thread)...

                                                            I bet Werdum straight up... and actually i just checked my graded wagers and my parlay WAS Werdum by sub / Healy! F*ck. I layed a few bucks on it and it would've payed $160. Gawtdamn if Healy would've only pulled that off. Oh well. I'll take the Werdum profit and run.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • playa420
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 03-09-08
                                                              • 881

                                                              #31
                                                              good call dude
                                                              Comment
                                                              • westerner
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 05-02-10
                                                                • 164

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by jin2daj
                                                                great call on werdum!!!
                                                                it wasn't a hard call to make if you pick based on researching things in reality and not marketing. sadly, a lot of guys limit their earnings losing unnecessarily because they bet based on MMA mythology, Fedor is great but Werdum has been criminally underrated.
                                                                Comment
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