Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

Gracie Breakdown...Miller/Diaz and Palhares/Belcher... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiC94...layer_embedded

[Beelzebubzy]

Deblass vs Natal. I know who I like in this matchup given decent odds.

[Vaughany]

Deblass vs Natal. I know who I like in this matchup given decent odds.

yeah be interesting to see those odds...seems DeBlass isn't going to get the time he might of liked to heal his injuries

[DirtyX]

Underdogs

Anyone like Jeremy Stephens to upset Cerrone (+210) or Sung Jung to upset Dustin Poirier (+250)?

I also like Hunt (-110) over Struve, Antonio Silva (+330) over Valasquez, and maybe Mir (+425) over JDS..

Also like - Tito (+225) over Forrest, Faber (+175) over Cruz, and Cung Le (+250) over Franklin

I obviously think Cain and JDS are going to win, but I am looking for Value. There are a lot of live dogs coming up in the next couple events and I believe there is value on these underdogs...



Thoughts?

[Vaughany]

Anyone like Jeremy Stephens to upset Cerrone (+210) or Sung Jung to upset Dustin Poirier (-250)?

I also like Hunt (-110) over Struve, Antonio Silva (+330) over Valasquez, and maybe Mir (+425) over JDS..

I obviously think Cain and JDS are going to win, but I am looking for Value and I believe there is value on these underdogs...



Thoughts?

I dunno, to me Stephens looks like a decent style match-up for Cerrone, Cerrone is better on the ground and I wouldnt be surprised if he caught Stephens in something. But then I also thought Pettis might catch Stephens in something but Stephens was confident enough to look and get the odds takedown earlier on in the fight and was never in trouble (I do think Cerrone is more dangerous off his back than Pettis tho). Stephens has been working with some killer dudes as well, really improved his training camp, sparring with likes of Pearson, Cruz, Gustafsson, Easton at Alliance and guys in Vegas like Belfort. Both guys have granite chins, I really don't no what to make of the stand-up, I'd have to give Cerrone a slight advantage there due to his reach and tendency to throw more kicks. I think it will probably go distance with Cerrone taking it.

I can't knock anybody for playing KZ at +280 or better (he's at +280 to +300 on most books). Although Poirier is solid and clearly a great prospect, the fact is tht he hasnt really beat anybody who's particularly good! The best opponent he's faced was Castillo who he lost to albeit at Lightweight. Grispi is clearly not tht good now despite the impressive sub wins on his record, Micklewright is an average striker who hasn't fought again since losing to Poirier, Jason Young is a decent striker but lacks power and grappling to compete with above mid-level guys, Pablo Garza despite being very tall is clearly lacking in wrestling and strength, and Max Holloway has a very limited ground-game and experience and was probably a step down from some of Poirier's previous opponents. But still, Poirier just looks like he knows how to find a way to win, I cant see KZ hurting him standing, Poirier throws a lot of straight punches and straight kicks which I think KZ may struggle with. And I dont see KZ being able to take POirier down and out-grapple him.

[TheCalculator]

YES- I also like Hunt (-110) over Struve,
YES - Antonio Silva (+330) over Valasquez, and maybe
YES - Mir (+425) over JDS..
YES - Cung Le (+250) over Franklin

[Vaughany]

I'll probably be big on JDS by TKO/KO and play Mir SOTN as back up

[bjpenn85]

I think a small bet on stephens decision/SU . chang sung SU as i dont think poirier should be that big fav. Who has poirier beat that is legit? He has some ok wins in garza, young, even tho he struggled a bit standig up with young and secured the dec with takedown in the last round, but not a convincing win at all. He did also struggle standing with max holloway in the beginning. Poirer has hype because he is young, not necessarily because he is so much more gifted than other quality fighters in the division. decent bet imo.

If playing faber, you should also play cruz dec.

i havent really broken down the other fights yet.

[Beelzebubzy]

YES- I also like Hunt (-110) over Struve,
YES - Antonio Silva (+330) over Valasquez, and maybe
YES - Mir (+425) over JDS..
YES - Cung Le (+250) over Franklin

Cung Le round 1 or by KO is the only way I will play him.
Franklin Inside (Sub is likely)
Fight to Not go distance

[DirtyX]

I think a small bet on stephens decision/SU . chang sung SU as i dont think poirier should be that big fav. Who has poirier beat that is legit? He has some ok wins in garza, young, even tho he struggled a bit standig up with young and secured the dec with takedown in the last round, but not a convincing win at all. He did also struggle standing with max holloway in the beginning. Poirer has hype because he is young, not necessarily because he is so much more gifted than other quality fighters in the division. decent bet imo.

If playing faber, you should also play cruz dec.

i havent really broken down the other fights yet.

Thanks man.

[Beelzebubzy]

V, thoughts on Cerrone by decision at +111, I threw it in a parlay with Silva/Belfort not going distance and JDS at +219

[Mimialex]

All u say is so reasonable! Thanx, not many people stay logical and that above the battle!

[Mimialex]

I dunno, to me Stephens looks like a decent style match-up for Cerrone, Cerrone is better on the ground and I wouldnt be surprised if he caught Stephens in something. But then I also thought Pettis might catch Stephens in something but Stephens was confident enough to look and get the odds takedown earlier on in the fight and was never in trouble (I do think Cerrone is more dangerous off his back than Pettis tho). Stephens has been working with some killer dudes as well, really improved his training camp, sparring with likes of Pearson, Cruz, Gustafsson, Easton at Alliance and guys in Vegas like Belfort. Both guys have granite chins, I really don't no what to make of the stand-up, I'd have to give Cerrone a slight advantage there due to his reach and tendency to throw more kicks. I think it will probably go distance with Cerrone taking it.

I can't knock anybody for playing KZ at +280 or better (he's at +280 to +300 on most books). Although Poirier is solid and clearly a great prospect, the fact is tht he hasnt really beat anybody who's particularly good! The best opponent he's faced was Castillo who he lost to albeit at Lightweight. Grispi is clearly not tht good now despite the impressive sub wins on his record, Micklewright is an average striker who hasn't fought again since losing to Poirier, Jason Young is a decent striker but lacks power and grappling to compete with above mid-level guys, Pablo Garza despite being very tall is clearly lacking in wrestling and strength, and Max Holloway has a very limited ground-game and experience and was probably a step down from some of Poirier's previous opponents. But still, Poirier just looks like he knows how to find a way to win, I cant see KZ hurting him standing, Poirier throws a lot of straight punches and straight kicks which I think KZ may struggle with. And I dont see KZ being able to take POirier down and out-grapple him.

All u say is so reasonable! Thanx, not many people remain that above the battle in their discussions! Dont u think this fight is kind of warming up for Poirier before meeting Aldo?

[Vaughany]

V, thoughts on Cerrone by decision at +111, I threw it in a parlay with Silva/Belfort not going distance and JDS at +219

Seems good to me. Cerrone by decision is most likely outcome I think, but again, Cerrone is a guy tht doesnt always fight the smartest! Whenever I've bet against him based on him not fighting smart he has gone and fought smart like against Varner in the rematch where he actually took Varner down and showed improved wrestling. Cerrone's best chance of winning this fight against Stephens is taking him down and work his submission game but you can't count on him doing that. He did it against Paul Kelly who isn't as dangerous a striker as Stephens but then went and stood with Diaz for three rounds. Even if it does stay standing tho, only way I see Stephens winning is if he lands a couple bombs tht rock Cerrone and leave an impression on the judges...I'm not sure even with his immense power tht Stephens will be able to TKO/KO Cerrone....he couldnt finish Danny Downes afterall so there is no guarantee tht all his stand-up fights are gonna look like the Davis and Dos Anjos finishes. As I said above, if he take Cerrone down he'll be in serious danger of getting triangled or arm-barred, and Im not convinced tht he'll even be able to take Cerrone down.

[Vaughany]

All u say is so reasonable! Thanx, not many people remain that above the battle in their discussions! Dont u think this fight is kind of warming up for Poirier before meeting Aldo?

Thanks, I try to remain as objective as possible! In theory perhaps, I'm sure many think this is a kind of warm-up, and I'm sure many are remembering Korean Zombie getting KO'd by Roop and therefore surmising tht this won't be much different as Poirier is as good if not better a striker than Roop. But we should bare in mind that that was the old Korean Zombie who was all about being wild and putting on entertaining fights with no focus on technique - "Zombie style" as he calls it in his blog were he talked about changing his style completely...

"In the end, a fighter who is all talk.

Who showed and proved nothing.

Drunken by the chants of 'ZOMBIE!!! ZOMBIE!!!'

Not even a single mark left on my opponent's face.

Even until the end, I was going for that one big shot...

As if going for a takedown were a sin, I didn't even consider it.

So, that is how scary and painful it is to get knocked out.

I can feel a similar pain in my heart...

On the way to the hospital - as they drew my blood and performed the CT scan - I could only think one thing...

That I would never fight again.

All I could think about was my friend, Jun Seok. I would go learn his trade and work alongside him, like my friends - at a regular job.

Returning to the hotel...after seeing the fans...and the smirk from George(Roop)...

I went to my room and sat down with my team, where the atmosphere was much more relaxed and calm.

As I continued to question my relevance in MMA...

Suddenly the words of advice that Brian had offered to me at the hospital, came to mind.

Fighting in Korea...fighting in Japan...overcoming all those odds, to end it like this?

Is this why I delayed going to the army?

Is this why I've been competing since high school?

The worst part being...

Is this the best I can do?

Am I only good enough to lose to a fighter who was perceived as mediocre by MMA fans?

So, I've decided to give this one more shot.

But, the pride I once had for fighting 'Zombie Style' has been shattered.

I'm going to change.

It's okay if you take away my Korean Zombie title.

It's okay if everyone boos me.

It's okay if no one in the world ever cheers for me again.

For everyone who has supported me thus far, that I have let down...

I make this promise to you...that I will never fight with the same style, ever again."

- Jung, Chan-Sung


And of course since that blog, he's gone on to win two fights in a row, both in spectacular fashion! And both showed great technique, pulling off a crazy sub tht had never been done before in MMA, and then KO'ing one of the best strikers in division with a counter straight right in 10 seconds!

So no I personally don't think the UFC have done this as a feeder fight for Poirier before fighting Aldo. Obviously Poirier is confident he can beat him as he was the one who orchestrated the fight by saying he wanted to go "Zombie Hunting"! And the UFC were more than happy to set tht up as both fighters are clearly talented and marketable. Poirier is a young stud, a good role model and has a movie/documentary all about him that just come out so is perfect timing to push him. And Korean Zombie has a big enough fan-base and a couple of spectacular wins behind him that are enough to give him a title shot if he does manage to beat Poirier...so either way it's a win-win situation for the UFC.

[bjpenn85]

Korean Zombie is a hell of a poetic guy as well. That post was very well written, and even touching. Seems like a great guy.

[v1y]

Unibet had Belcher tko @ 9.0. I dont know what unibet are doing. They also had benavidez tko @ 6.0 against urush. Maybe their tactic is to get people to bet at their site by giving generous prices on big fights.

lol i played both.

[bjpenn85]

very nice. unibet is one of my fav bookies.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Will you be taking any action on the 19th?

[Vaughany]

Will you be taking any action on the 19th?

Like Melendez, had him in two parlays tht bombed the other night

[Vaughany]

Korean Zombie is a hell of a poetic guy as well. That post was very well written, and even touching. Seems like a great guy.

yeah it's an awesome speech!

[the josh]

ive got melendez in like 400+ worth of parlays too V

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Like Melendez, had him in two parlays tht bombed the other night

I'm going with Barnett large now. Back-tracking on my initial leans has worked out well so far this year with Belcher and Hendricks among others. I still don't see Cormier being able to capitalize on a glaring oversight in Barnett's positioning (if any) with his counter-punching.

Functional wrestling, hopefully, will be the key here.

[eligibletackle]

hey V, how about the always game Neer (+170) vs Pyle?

I think Pyle has been the beneficiary of favorable matchups lately and his MO of "killer in the gym/not the ring" might still linger w/ a guy as tough as Neer.

Has Pyle put it together and is a 5-2 fighter over past 7 in the UFC w/ losses to just MacDonald and Ellenberger, and ready to handle a Josh Neer who's past his prime?

or can a durable veteran take out a guy who's most impressive W in the past 4 years was outwrestling John Hathaway?

[Vaughany]

hey V, how about the always game Neer (+170) vs Pyle?

I think Pyle has been the beneficiary of favorable matchups lately and his MO of "killer in the gym/not the ring" might still linger w/ a guy as tough as Neer.

Has Pyle put it together and is a 5-2 fighter over past 7 in the UFC w/ losses to just MacDonald and Ellenberger, and ready to handle a Josh Neer who's past his prime?

or can a durable veteran take out a guy who's most impressive W in the past 4 years was outwrestling John Hathaway?

Neer could well take this...he's tough as hell and been training a lot with the Diaz brothers. Odds should probably be closer to +125 or something.

[Mimialex]

Thanks, I try to remain as objective as possible! In theory perhaps, I'm sure many think this is a kind of warm-up, and I'm sure many are remembering Korean Zombie getting KO'd by Roop and therefore surmising tht this won't be much different as Poirier is as good if not better a striker than Roop. But we should bare in mind that that was the old Korean Zombie who was all about being wild and putting on entertaining fights with no focus on technique - "Zombie style" as he calls it in his blog were he talked about changing his style completely...

"In the end, a fighter who is all talk.

Who showed and proved nothing.

Drunken by the chants of 'ZOMBIE!!! ZOMBIE!!!'

Not even a single mark left on my opponent's face.

Even until the end, I was going for that one big shot...

As if going for a takedown were a sin, I didn't even consider it.

So, that is how scary and painful it is to get knocked out.

I can feel a similar pain in my heart...

On the way to the hospital - as they drew my blood and performed the CT scan - I could only think one thing...

That I would never fight again.

All I could think about was my friend, Jun Seok. I would go learn his trade and work alongside him, like my friends - at a regular job.

Returning to the hotel...after seeing the fans...and the smirk from George(Roop)...

I went to my room and sat down with my team, where the atmosphere was much more relaxed and calm.

As I continued to question my relevance in MMA...

Suddenly the words of advice that Brian had offered to me at the hospital, came to mind.

Fighting in Korea...fighting in Japan...overcoming all those odds, to end it like this?

Is this why I delayed going to the army?

Is this why I've been competing since high school?

The worst part being...

Is this the best I can do?

Am I only good enough to lose to a fighter who was perceived as mediocre by MMA fans?

So, I've decided to give this one more shot.

But, the pride I once had for fighting 'Zombie Style' has been shattered.

I'm going to change.

It's okay if you take away my Korean Zombie title.

It's okay if everyone boos me.

It's okay if no one in the world ever cheers for me again.

For everyone who has supported me thus far, that I have let down...

I make this promise to you...that I will never fight with the same style, ever again."

- Jung, Chan-Sung


And of course since that blog, he's gone on to win two fights in a row, both in spectacular fashion! And both showed great technique, pulling off a crazy sub tht had never been done before in MMA, and then KO'ing one of the best strikers in division with a counter straight right in 10 seconds!

So no I personally don't think the UFC have done this as a feeder fight for Poirier before fighting Aldo. Obviously Poirier is confident he can beat him as he was the one who orchestrated the fight by saying he wanted to go "Zombie Hunting"! And the UFC were more than happy to set tht up as both fighters are clearly talented and marketable. Poirier is a young stud, a good role model and has a movie/documentary all about him that just come out so is perfect timing to push him. And Korean Zombie has a big enough fan-base and a couple of spectacular wins behind him that are enough to give him a title shot if he does manage to beat Poirier...so either way it's a win-win situation for the UFC.

Well thanks again! I see you think Zombie's gonna win...maybe you're right about how it might happen. His Zombie style cam really pull guys off...Thats reasonable! You're a real mma fan as I can see! Here's a nice site where you can make predictions about the winner http://predictfight.com/ you might like it))
actually I even don't know who I bet on...

[Vaughany]

Well thanks again! I see you think Zombie's gonna win...maybe you're right about how it might happen. His Zombie style cam really pull guys off...Thats reasonable! You're a real mma fan as I can see! Here's a nice site where you can make predictions about the winner http://predictfight.com/ you might like it))
actually I even don't know who I bet on...

I dont think Zombie's going to win, I think Poirier is rightly the favourite and expect him to win, but I'm just not convinced that Poirier should be a -300 to -350 favourite.

[DirtyX]

I'm going with Barnett large now. Back-tracking on my initial leans has worked out well so far this year with Belcher and Hendricks among others. I still don't see Cormier being able to capitalize on a glaring oversight in Barnett's positioning (if any) with his counter-punching.

Functional wrestling, hopefully, will be the key here.

I'm also going big on Barnett.. All my betting buddies are liking Cormier, but at -130, I will gamble on Barnett. Hoping his superior MMA wrestling will be the difference. I know Cormier is a stud wrestler, but I am thinking he hasn't transfered it to MMA wrestling. Barnett has the experience, the reach and is all around better imo. Got at least two units on him by fight night at -130, hoping the line will dive back towards evens..

[PunisherIND]

i'm noticing a lot of action on upcoming dog lines -- must be due to all the underdog wins this past weekend.

[Vaughany]

Some comedy from Josh Thomson on twitter! https://twitter.com/#!/THEREALPUNK/s...348865/photo/1

I luv having such loyal fans just ask @cainmmawhat that's like...

[PunisherIND]

lol good thing she's covering up her tates... otherwise may have been NSFW.

[Vaughany]

Can see her snatch tho brah!

[NunyaBidness]

Can see her snatch tho brah!

Are we sure that's her snatch and not just another fat roll?

[NunyaBidness]

Also, I think there is cat puke behind her.

[PunisherIND]

Can see her snatch tho brah!

lol. my sarcarsm flew right over your head. i thought it was funny that she's covering up her knockers as if it makes a difference.