Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[omalley21]

LOL great stuff in here. Have you guys noticed if you bet 99$ instead of 100$ on 5d it won't move the lines as quickly so you can hit it more than once. I think the program is set to move the line after max bets or something. Try it out. Save some value for me! I f*cking hate missing the openers.

[Vaughany]

LOL great stuff in here. Have you guys noticed if you bet 99$ instead of 100$ on 5d it won't move the lines as quickly so you can hit it more than once. I think the program is set to move the line after max bets or something. Try it out. Save some value for me! I f*cking hate missing the openers.

ha interesting! So do you mean rather than it going from +150 to +130 it would move to +145 or something?

[Beelzebubzy]

Markes by TKO at +300
Stipe by Dec at +300

Thoughts?

[Vaughany]

Markes by TKO at +300
Stipe by Dec at +300

Thoughts?

One of them could certainly hit. I dont think De Fries is going to respond well to getting hit. Or at least not as well as Beltran responded who we know is very resilient. De Fries has never been put through much adversity. This could be (and should be) first find where he finds it difficult to get it to the ground and get's hit quite a bit in attempting to do so.

Oh and Markes is +515 by TKO/KO on Sportbet so +300 isnt very good value in comparison

[Vaughany]

Summary of UFC on FUEL TV 1 plays:


Parlay (double): 10 units on Thompson (-250), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 9.6 units;

Parlay: 6.25 units on Sonnen (-350), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 5 units;

Parlay (double): 6.25 units on Poirier (-400), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 4.669 units;

Parlay: 1.605 units on Rivera/Schafer Under 2.5 Rounds (-205), Not Guillard by Submission (-11000), Ellenberger (-255), & Ben Henderson (+105) to win 5.272 units;


6.368 units on Sanchez by Decision at +494 to win 31.458 units;


10.329 units on Herman at -117.65 to win 8.78 units;

7.51 units on Herman at -120 to win 6.258 units;

1.592 units on Herman/Struve FOTN at +650 to win 10.346 units;


15.868 units on Markes at +155 to win 24.595 units;

2.76 units on Markes at +142 to win 3.919 units;


Parlay: 6.373 units on Miocic (-440), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 18.554 units;


Parlay: 6.373 units on Not De Fries by TKO/KO (-3600), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Edgar by Decision (+144), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 39.495 units;


Parlay: 6.371 units on Herman/Struve to Not go the Distance (-420), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-445), Pat Barry (-205), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 10.402 units;


Parlay: 6.371 units Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-593), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-900) to win 5.814 units;


Parlay: 3.185 units on Miocic/De Fries Over 1.5 Rounds (-130), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-593), Herman/Struve Starts round 2 (-185), Not Bader Inside the distance (-905), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 13.415 units;


6.371 units on Dillashaw by Decision at +156 to win 9.939 units;


Parlay: 0.382 units on Watson wins by TKO/KO (+1100), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 6.375 units;


Parlay: 3.187 units on Salas/Kuivanen Over 2.5 Rounds (-135), Rampage/Bader to Go the Distance (Evens), & Edgar/Henderson to Go the Distance (-280) to win 11.869 units.

[Vaughany]

Summary of UFC on FUEL TV 1 plays:


Parlay (double): 10 units on Thompson (-250), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 9.6 units;

Parlay: 6.25 units on Sonnen (-350), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 5 units;

Parlay (double): 6.25 units on Poirier (-400), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 4.669 units;

Parlay: 1.605 units on Rivera/Schafer Under 2.5 Rounds (-205), Not Guillard by Submission (-11000), Ellenberger (-255), & Ben Henderson (+105) to win 5.272 units;


6.368 units on Sanchez by Decision at +494 to win 31.458 units;


10.329 units on Herman at -117.65 to win 8.78 units;

7.51 units on Herman at -120 to win 6.258 units;

1.592 units on Herman/Struve FOTN at +650 to win 10.346 units;


15.868 units on Markes at +155 to win 24.595 units;

2.76 units on Markes at +142 to win 3.919 units;


Parlay: 6.373 units on Miocic (-440), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 18.554 units;


Parlay: 6.371 units on Herman/Struve to Not Go the Distance (-420), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-445), Barry (-205), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 10.397 units;


Parlay: 6.373 units on Not De Fries by TKO/KO (-3600), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Edgar by Decision (+144), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 39.495 units;


Parlay: 6.371 units on Herman/Struve to Not go the Distance (-420), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-445), Pat Barry (-205), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 10.402 units;


Parlay: 6.371 units Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-593), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-900) to win 5.814 units;


Parlay: 3.185 units on Miocic/De Fries Over 1.5 Rounds (-130), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-593), Herman/Struve Starts round 2 (-185), Not Bader Inside the distance (-905), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 13.415 units;


6.371 units on Dillashaw by Decision at +156 to win 9.939 units;


Parlay: 0.382 units on Watson wins by TKO/KO (+1100), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 6.375 units.

Also have a risk-free arb on Means/Magalhaes fight after arbing out of Means at +125 and +160 with Magalhaes at Evens, -101 and -102....just over 13 units profit if Means wins, or 0.474 units if Magalhaes wins.

[bjpenn85]

you ride with markes?

[Vaughany]

you ride with markes?

At the moment yeah. Got Fight Starts Round 2 in a lot of parlays, probably too many! If either win in Round 1 I could be in trouble.

[fitguy67]

Nice card, V...you have about 100 units in play...I'd guess it comes out of a total warchest of about 500 units, am I right?

...just trying to get a feel for the money-management basics of betting on a UFC event.

Appreciate any guidance here from you & the regulars.

[Beelzebubzy]

Markes weighs 220 now
Check his twitter

[bjpenn85]

damn

[Rubber Guard]

220? Holy hell.

[gabe]

firstrowsports is down, any1 got a link?

i was hoping it'd be streaming on ufc.tv

[Vaughany]

Streaming on ufc.tv for us in UK

[Kaladarus]

http://www.firstrowsports.eu/watch/107873/1/watch-ufc:-sanchez-vs-ellenberger.html

[thes0vereign]

firstrowsports is down, any1 got a link?

i was hoping it'd be streaming on ufc.tv

Firstrowsports.eu

The one domain they couldn't grab.

[gabe]

my man.

[Vaughany]

Wooo Dillashaw decision hits

[Vaughany]

Arbed out of Markes play with A-Train at +125! Too good to resist

[Vaughany]

Phhewwww! A-Train in Round 1 would of been DISASTROUS!

[bjpenn85]

ohhh that sucks now

[Vaughany]

All good. 11.5 units profit and still got the parlays going strong with Fight starts Round 2 in

[bjpenn85]

auuuchh 25 units down there...i had a reallly bad feeling before the fight started as well...

[bjpenn85]

sad, because i was up 25 units before the fight started...am very very pissed now..

[Vaughany]

Yeah, I even selected the live play at +225 or something before Round 2 cos Struve wasn't looking his wild self, but got greedy and cancelled it! Defo gonna start using livebetting more tho. If I'd of taken that Struve line I'd of had a risk free play to win 8 units or something on Struve

[Vaughany]

Adding:


Parlay: 3.191 units on Ellenberger (-375), Edgar/Henderson to Go the Distance (-280), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 3.208 units.

[bjpenn85]

auch sucks. that struve reach, its ridiculous that i didnt went for the inside prop, or just rolled with fight not going the distance. both fighters are so inconsistant

[Vaughany]

yeah had the starts round 2 in a parlay and Not Distance in another one so eases the pain a little! Would of been close to perfect night had he of won that after first round!

[bjpenn85]

all in all with ellenberger i finished 10 units up, but it could have been 35. Pee wee ****** me good.

[GunShard]

My Ellenberger bet won as well.

Should I bet Henderson against Edgar?

[Vaughany]

UFC on FUEL TV 1 Review:

Summary of UFC on FUEL TV 1 plays:


Parlay (double): 10 units on Thompson (-250), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 9.6 units;

Parlay: 6.25 units on Sonnen (-350), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 5 units;

Parlay (double): 6.25 units on Poirier (-400), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 4.669 units;

Parlay: 1.605 units on Rivera/Schafer Under 2.5 Rounds (-205), Not Guillard by Submission (-11000), Ellenberger (-255), & Ben Henderson (+105) to win 5.272 units;


6.368 units on Sanchez by Decision at +494 to win 31.458 units;


10.329 units on Herman at -117.65 to win 8.78 units;

7.51 units on Herman at -120 to win 6.258 units;

1.592 units on Herman/Struve FOTN at +650 to win 10.346 units; (Voided due to Roberts/Loeffler fight being cancelled)


15.868 units on Markes at +155 to win 24.595 units;

2.76 units on Markes at +142 to win 3.919 units;


Parlay: 6.373 units on Miocic (-440), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 18.554 units;


Parlay: 6.373 units on Not De Fries by TKO/KO (-3600), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Edgar by Decision (+144), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 39.495 units;


Parlay: 6.371 units on Herman/Struve to Not go the Distance (-420), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-445), Pat Barry (-205), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 10.402 units;


Parlay: 6.371 units Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-593), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-900) to win 5.814 units;


Parlay: 3.185 units on Miocic/De Fries Over 1.5 Rounds (-130), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-593), Herman/Struve Starts round 2 (-185), Not Bader Inside the distance (-905), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 13.415 units;


6.371 units on Dillashaw by Decision at +156 to win 9.939 units;


Parlay: 0.382 units on Watson wins by TKO/KO (+1100), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 6.375 units;


Parlay: 3.187 units on Salas/Kuivanen Over 2.5 Rounds (-135), Rampage/Bader to Go the Distance (Evens), & Edgar/Henderson to Go the Distance (-280) to win 11.869 units.

Also have a risk-free arb on Means/Magalhaes fight after arbing out of Means at +125 and +160 with Magalhaes at Evens, -101 and -102....just over 13 units profit if Means wins, or 0.474 units if Magalhaes wins.

Arbed out of Markes play with A-Train at +125! Too good to resist

Adding:


Parlay: 3.191 units on Ellenberger (-375), Edgar/Henderson to Go the Distance (-280), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 3.208 units.

UFC on FUEL TV 1 Review:

Total stake: 92.263 units

Return: 105.221 units

Profit:+12.958 units (+26.034 units inc' Dirty Bird Means arb)



7 out of 9 parlays still going strong coming off UFC on FUEL TV 1 (the 2 parlays that failed were smallest risk and hedge plays):


Parlay: 1.605 units on Rivera/Schafer Under 2.5 Rounds (-205), Not Guillard by Submission (-11000), Ellenberger (-255), & Ben Henderson (+105) to win 5.272 units;

Parlay: 6.373 units on Miocic (-440), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 18.554 units;

Parlay: 6.373 units on Not De Fries by TKO/KO (-3600), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Edgar by Decision (+144), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 39.495 units;

Parlay: 6.371 units on Herman/Struve to Not go the Distance (-420), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-445), Pat Barry (-205), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 10.402 units;

Parlay: 6.371 units Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-593), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-900) to win 5.814 units;

Parlay: 3.187 units on Salas/Kuivanen Over 2.5 Rounds (-135), Rampage/Bader to Go the Distance (Evens), & Edgar/Henderson to Go the Distance (-280) to win 11.869 units.

Parlay: 3.191 units on Ellenberger (-375), Edgar/Henderson to Go the Distance (-280), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 3.208 units;

Adding:


Parlay (treble): 5.625 units on Ellenberger (-250), Jon Jones (-400), & Anderson Silva (-225) to win 8.594 units.

[GunShard]

Nice plays.

[caveira]

Not so much profit this time, but still got the parlays going strong Vaugh!

[Vaughany]

UFC 144 plays so far:


41.6 units on Rampage at -200 to win 20.8 units;


Parlay: 0.324 units on Woodley/Mein Over 2.5 Rounds, Evans (-140), Condit (+145), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 4.107 units;


Parlay (double): 2.273 units on Ben Henderson (+110), & Jon Jones (-400) to win 3.694 units;


Parlay: 1.605 units on Rivera/Schafer Under 2.5 Rounds (-205), Not Guillard by Submission (-11000), Ellenberger (-255), & Ben Henderson (+105) to win 5.272 units;


Parlay: 6.373 units on Miocic (-440), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 18.554 units;

Parlay: 6.373 units on Not De Fries by TKO/KO (-3600), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Edgar by Decision (+144), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 39.495 units;


Parlay: 6.371 units on Herman/Struve to Not go the Distance (-420), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-445), Pat Barry (-205), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 10.402 units;

Parlay: 6.371 units Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-593), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-900) to win 5.814 units;


Parlay: 3.187 units on Salas/Kuivanen Over 2.5 Rounds (-135), Rampage/Bader to Go the Distance (Evens), & Edgar/Henderson to Go the Distance (-280) to win 11.869 units.

Parlay: 3.191 units on Ellenberger (-375), Edgar/Henderson to Go the Distance (-280), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 3.208 units.

[Vaughany]

UFC 144 plays so far:


41.6 units on Rampage at -200 to win 20.8 units;


Parlay: 0.324 units on Woodley/Mein Over 2.5 Rounds, Evans (-140), Condit (+145), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 4.107 units;


Parlay (double): 2.273 units on Ben Henderson (+110), & Jon Jones (-400) to win 3.694 units;


Parlay: 1.605 units on Rivera/Schafer Under 2.5 Rounds (-205), Not Guillard by Submission (-11000), Ellenberger (-255), & Ben Henderson (+105) to win 5.272 units;


Parlay: 6.373 units on Miocic (-440), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 18.554 units;

Parlay: 6.373 units on Not De Fries by TKO/KO (-3600), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Edgar by Decision (+144), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 39.495 units;


Parlay: 6.371 units on Herman/Struve to Not go the Distance (-420), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-445), Pat Barry (-205), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 10.402 units;

Parlay: 6.371 units Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-593), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-900) to win 5.814 units;


Parlay: 3.187 units on Salas/Kuivanen Over 2.5 Rounds (-135), Rampage/Bader to Go the Distance (Evens), & Edgar/Henderson to Go the Distance (-280) to win 11.869 units.

Parlay: 3.191 units on Ellenberger (-375), Edgar/Henderson to Go the Distance (-280), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 3.208 units.

Adding:


13.335 units on Kongo at -210 to win 6.35 units;

Parlay (double): 6.349 units on Kongo (-290), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 3.613 units.