solid card Edu. still think that's a really good price on roop
I might add varner by decision.
I might add varner by decision.
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Thx Ecco.
And yeah Ill, I was/am(kinda still) considering straddling Varner by dec (+168 iirc) with Cerrone inside the distance (+368 iirc)...
Cerrone is such a f*cking slow starter -- he can't afford to putz around in this 3 card fight from the get go, and if he does, Varner probably gets the W.
If he starts off with a fury, similar to how he has closed some fights, he could finish Varner.
But overall, as a straight play, much to my dismay, I have to lean Varner.Comment -
WEC 51 plays
Risk / To Win / Wager
0.50u / 0.35u / Varner LOSS
0.25u / 0.56u / Roop WIN
0.25u / 0.33u / Ratcliff LOSS
0.50u / 0.45u / Hominick, Mike Thomas Brown WIN
NET = +0.23u
I'll take it, especially given the fact that I'm a Cerrone fan...Comment -
i feel exactly the same way. Ive never been so happy to watch a bet lose, cerrone beat him down.Comment -
UFC 120 plays...
1.00u Brown-Kongo does not go 3 round distance (-265)
0.50u Diabate (-120)
0.50u Wilks (+158)
0.50u Kongo / Hathaway / Bisping-Akiyama starts round 2 (pays out ~ 1.25:1)
0.13u Pyle by submission (+550)
0.13u Diabate quickest sub (+1400)
My thoughts on Browne-Kongo in the 120 thread...
I like Gustafsson, but I think Diabate has the edge standing from a technical point of view, but if Gustafsson tags him (Diabate did keep his hands low against Banha of all guys), or powers him to the mat, Cyrille could be in trouble, but overall, I like Diabate here.
I wrote down a shit-ton of notes on Wilks, but put simply -- he's a savvy grinder. Has a good chin (see Matt Brown fight), decent striking, can defend subs (don't think he'll get caught in one of Patrick's guillotines), and will attempt subs.
The parlay is just a cheeky square play, and hedged with the Pyle prop.
Diabate prop in the 120 thread.
GL all.
EDComment -
That's right... after getting my first "Oh-fer" on UFC 120 and losing 2.75u, I'm getting right back in the cage for 121... Some small action plays, as I'll be attending the event.
UFC 121 plays
Risk / to Win / Action
1.00u / 0.83u / Lesnar wins inside the distance
0.50u / 0.85u / Kampmann
0.50u / 0.55u / Sanchez
0.25u / 2.23u / Lesnar wins inside the distance, Tito, Sanchez -- Grapple F*ck Hammerfist Parlay
0.13u / 1.33u / Velasquez by decision
0.13u / 1.24u / Lawlor vs Cote FOTN
I gotta roll with Lesnar's size advantage here. I DO recognize Cain's striking is leaps ahead, but I'm not buying into Cain's cardio advantage that most are counting on here -- cardio in training is one thing. Let's see how his cardio holds up with Donkey Kong on top of him. Now, I hardly think this is a lock... Cain could very well TKO/KO Brock... (I do have this vision of a head kick???) and he could take away Brock's base if he Shogun's Lesnar's tree trunks with repeated leg kicks. So if he employs a Shogun meets Edgar style gameplan and uses his head movement and leg kicks to wear down Brock, I could see this going to the cards -- but the odds of ANY heavyweight title fight going to the cards are historically low as I pointed out in another thread... I just think Brock is too much of the manimal in this one.
Kampmann -- small play as much of the value has been thrifted from the opening line. Shields debut jitters + rumored lingering back injury + cutting back down to 170 after a lengthy stay at 185 + Kampmann having a solid overall skillset that gets overlooked by many = I'll take the dog here.
Diego Sanchez -- I am rooting for Paulo Thiago in this one, but wagering on Diego. Expecting a conservative wrestling based gameplan to be employed given he has Greg Jackson in his corner, and this is Jackson MMA's premier fight on this card, so I expect full attention has been given to reaching success here with Diego. If Greg Jackson can instill discipline in Melvin Guillard, he can do the same for Diego.
Cote v Lawlor FOTN -- I see 4 or 5 realistically probable FOTNs on the card and this has the best juice... I actually think the Diego fight which many are expecting a FOTN caliber performance will underwhelm many.
BOL to all
ps. Sooners -3 and KC Chiefs ML
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BOL ED!
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WEC plays... won't be able to watch it
Been hella busy working...
Faber by decision risking 0.25u (-118)
Mendes by decision risking 0.25u (-111)
parlay Faber / Page risking 0.25u (pays 8:10) -- I'm straight up tailing Ill on this one.
Basically, looking for Team Alpha Male to work their grappling bases. Though I'm staying away from Benavidez.Comment -
WEC plays... won't be able to watch it Been hella busy working...
Faber by decision risking 0.25u (-118)
Mendes by decision risking 0.25u (-111)
parlay Faber / Page risking 0.25u (pays 8:10) -- I'm straight up tailing Ill on this one.
Basically, looking for Team Alpha Male to work their grappling bases. Though I'm staying away from Benavidez.
like the mendes via decision play as a hedge on my vazquez hail mary...
thanks for posting...Comment -
Stoked for 123... only making tiny plays though... Thought about loading up on Griffin/Machida... I feel so square for loving that parlay, but I'm just gonna go small on it... though most bets are leaning on Machida.
Risk / Wager
0.50u / Griffin, Machida
0.25u / Hallman (+120)
0.25u / Foster (-126)
0.25u / Machida, Falcao - Harris does not go distance
0.13u / Lauzon by decision (+437)
0.13u / Falcao quickest TKO/KO (+900)
0.13u / Machida, Falcao, Griffin, Boetsch-Davis starts round 2
0.07u / Machida, Penn-Hughes over 2.5rds, Davis, Soti, Munoz-Simpson over 2.5rds, Hallman, Barboza
BOLComment -
TUF / Strikeforce plays...
0.50u Henderson / Silva (pays a bit under 1:1)
0.50u Brookins / Watson (pays a bit over 1:1)
0.25u Story (+170) --> wish i nabbed the +285 opener
0.25u St. Preux (-115) --> missed the damn opener again
0.13u Wilkinson, Watson, Campuzano, St. Preux (pays ~ 8:1)
GL everyone.Comment -
Not too shabby... really wished I would've bet Lawler and Daley... that was free money. Been too distracted with work lately...TUF / Strikeforce plays...
0.50u Henderson / Silva (pays a bit under 1:1) WIN
0.50u Brookins / Watson (pays a bit over 1:1) WIN
0.25u Story (+170) --> wish i nabbed the +285 opener WIN
0.25u St. Preux (-115) --> missed the damn opener again WIN
0.13u Wilkinson, Watson, Campuzano, St. Preux (pays ~ 8:1) LOSS
GL everyone.Comment -
Gd shit Edu!
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Good work! I feel the same way about Lawler - not sure why I didnt pull the trigger on that one.Comment -
Not in love with anything for UFC 124... so some small action plays. Strongest lean is Joe Daddy, but not crazy about the line as far as value goes. I was strongly leaning Alves early in the week, but after reviewing some film, I think Howard is a scrappy tough fighter; so not tempted too much with the Alves line... No real value in the GSP line... (and I've got this real funny feeling Koscheck is gonna clip him with an overhand right leading to a TKO)... Though, I'll be rooting for GSP.
0.50u Struve
0.50u GSP / Joe Daddy
0.13u Koscheck inside distance
0.13u Koscheck / Jim Miller / John Howard
0.13u Struve / Alves / GSP by sub
GL everyone.Comment -
gl...I don't know what to think of the late steam on Mccorkle
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