Cotto over Pacquiao

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  • TheGovernor11
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 09-17-08
    • 583

    #36
    I'm just going to follow suit and just start ranting like everyone else.

    Whoever said that Joshua Clottey is slightly "better than your average fighter" or something like that is a fool. At the very least he'd give the top welterweights a run for their money (look at Cotto for example).

    I think the OP said this gem, that Cotto has a far superior fight IQ than Pacquiao because he can change styles mid-fight. He probably does posses the great fight IQ, I'm not denying that. But when have you ever seen Cotto change tactics or make outcome changing decisions in a fight? This should not be a factor in this fight, especially when Pacquiao has Roach in his corner. That right there would nullify any advantage in fighter IQ that Cotto might have.

    Some of the most ridiculous things that have been said are things like saying Pacquiao hasn't fought anyone except some small mexicans, Old DLH, and an overrated Hatton. Those small mexicans just happened to be the top lightweights at the time with combined records of 168-18. That 18 could very easily be cut down because most of the losses were taken on at the end of their careers. With regards to DLH and Hatton, the only thing that those two fights show is that Manny did it better than Mayweather, period.

    I can't remember if someone tried to dismiss Cotto's opponents or not so I'll just assume that no one did. If someone did, you're retarded.

    Other ridiculous things said in this thread are betting bigger on Pac because Cotto looked shitty against Clottey (same guy who said he's a bum). This would make perfect sense if Pacquiao and Clottey had ANYTHING in common. They are completely different fighters so using this as your template on how why Pacquiao is going to win is ludicrous.

    I'm sure there's more in there but I'm tired and don't feel like reading everything over.

    But here's my take on all this. First to answer the OP's question, I think the lines will continue to improve on Cotto all the way up to fight night. Pacquiao's a national sensation now and is know as the P4P King. Even though he's not, people believe the hype and spin. They remember the beating the "much smaller man" (at least wast suppose to be) put on DLH, the golden boy of boxing in the US. Then he DEVASTATED the UK's boxing god Ricky Hatton in two rounds. And then people remember that PBF fought these two and didn't look this good so Pac Man has to be better. Wonderful logic...

    This fight should be a pick'em that's slightly leaning towards Pacquiao just because he has all this momentum going into the fight. Anyone who thinks that Pacquiao can score a KO/TKO must be praying for a doctor's stoppage or something. Cotto might get knocked down from a flurry of punches by Pacman but he'll never be down for the full count of 10. Pacquiao is definitely being overrated for this fight after his last two spectacular victories. Cotto is being vastly underrated after his loss to Margarito and a close win to Joshua Clottey.

    I was originally leaning Cotto to take this fight but now am leaning back to Manny. There are some definite holes in Cotto's game that if Freddie Roach can exploit as well as he did with Hatton, this should be another Pac Man celebration.
    Comment
    • BeDtimeHobby
      SBR Hustler
      • 07-07-09
      • 61

      #37
      I have been tracking PAC's career for a long time since im follower of him. Dont you think why some experts compare him to an all time GREATS? This guy works out like a machine and sacrifice himself during training. He has unbelievable work ethics that no American heavyweights you can compare off (current).

      IMO, PACMAN is on his peak of his career especially at the age of 30 and time for you guys to take advantage of this. Before, i wasnt a believer of him stepping up w/ boxers in heavier division when prior to Oscar's fight, but PACMAN changed a lot. Way years back he only relied on his POWER and SPEED during his early entrance into the American boxing scene. With the help of Roach he now learned to be a complete boxer (hit and not get hit) especially his used of his right hand. He used lateral movement to hit his opponent and with Cotto's style that his very hittable, Manny can truly take advantage of this. HE WONT KO COTTO IN A PUNCH BUT W/ COMBOS, SORT OF LIKE TEKKEN TIME OF ATTACK. Only way Cotto can win is to put Pac in the corner so Pac wont be able to use the ring to set up Manny's SHARPSHOOTERS PUNCHES. He also need to step up in the early rounds as the Pac is like a typhoon when he has the momentum on him with regards to Cotto really has the tendency to heat up later in fights.
      Comment
      • BeDtimeHobby
        SBR Hustler
        • 07-07-09
        • 61

        #38
        Trixie, you seems have a lot of points on picking Cotto to win. What about a personal Wager in Matchbook? I'll give you plus200 odds?

        I dont know about you guys but i've been saving everything for this fight, I am going to pound this one as the next fight most probably on MoneyMay, which i would wisely not touch.
        Comment
        • BeDtimeHobby
          SBR Hustler
          • 07-07-09
          • 61

          #39
          Governer, I just really hope that the line will improve for Cotto because im not seeing this right now. I remember way back they announce this fight (i believe in july or june) that the line opened at -200, stayed -225 for a long time, and now sitting -250 after the 24/7 first episode(b365 odds).
          Comment
          • Trixie
            SBR High Roller
            • 03-30-09
            • 199

            #40
            Governor: I agree with pretty much everything that you said, save for your predicted outcome of course. But, to answer your question, off the top of my head I saw Cotto change his strategy in the Torres fight. And while perhaps not "changing strategy" per se, it was extremely evident that he gradually got accustomed to and then wiped out Zab Judah, as the fight went on. I'm not sure why you're slighting me by calling it sarcastically, a "gem" for me to note that Cotto has the greater ring IQ. This is fact, imo.

            And regards Roach's negating this: he was there for the Marquez fights too. He came in with a plan and then when it clearly didn't work as Pac wasn't able to finish him off, then what happened? The whole thing unspooled. That's what I'm talking about -- Pac will come in with one plan, whatever it is, and if it works, Cotto is fcuked. If it doesn't, then what? I agree tactically Roach is a gd genius. But does he have a back-up plan? If he realizes the best way to win is for Pac to keep Cotto away with a jab and focus on counter-punching, can Pac execute? I'm not so sure...

            I know that the price will get better and better for Cotto, since if anything, the Filipinos haven't even hit Vegas up yet. My question was why, after standing relatively firm, did it move the day after 24/7 aired/figuroa released that statement. Was it coincidence or not?

            And Bedtime, I'm unfamiliar with what Matchbook and plus200 odds. Can you please fill me in? Thanks.
            Comment
            • TheGovernor11
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 09-17-08
              • 583

              #41
              BeDtime-
              I think that Pacquio's line will worsen and Cotto's line will get better.

              Trixie-
              Marquez's IQ is MUCH greater than Cotto's. Any adjustments that was made in between rounds Marquez could adjust himself during the round. I don't see Cotto doing the same. I agree he has the greater fight IQ, I just don't see it as an advantage because the difference between the two isn't that great.

              This fight really to me is a pick'em so taking Cotto would be the better because he's at +200. I'll probably bet him for the value even though I think (and hope) Pacquiao will win.
              Comment
              • illmatick
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 01-05-09
                • 5456

                #42
                even now the value is with cotto, I would expect to see +210 and +220 in a few days

                If I was making the line for this fight I would have pacman at -140 which is much closer to the true line imo, books know the pacman line is going to get pounded either way so I dont see them having any problem moving the line as high as -280 or even -290

                I never said the tiny mexicans were not skilled just pointing out they were a lot smaller than cotto, In my honest opinion, cotto destoys marquez then and now, and I would have said the same thing before the mayweather fight
                Comment
                • Enogsiwon
                  Restricted User
                  • 06-15-09
                  • 4075

                  #43
                  The King will be betting on this fight.. whoever makes the best case, and leads me to bet on the winner, will receive points from me.. so stop fighting and find out whos going to win..

                  KING
                  Comment
                  • marabdl86
                    SBR MVP
                    • 10-06-09
                    • 1067

                    #44
                    Let me sum this up. You can't hurt what you can't catch

                    Cotto's very flat footed and needs to be set to throw punches. Pacman can throw punches while moving and avoids being hit using his feet. Cotto's going to try and hit his body and be off balance when he shoots and misses. Pacman's going to see this and attack with a barrage of punches of his own catching Cotto with most of them. He's then goign to use his jab and move until he tires Cotto out. Cotto's going to tire eventually from not being able to catch Pacman. Then Pacman's bringing the heat on his ass. I see a knockout in favor of Pacman round 8-9
                    Comment
                    • TheGovernor11
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 09-17-08
                      • 583

                      #45
                      Originally posted by illmatick
                      even now the value is with cotto, I would expect to see +210 and +220 in a few days

                      If I was making the line for this fight I would have pacman at -140 which is much closer to the true line imo, books know the pacman line is going to get pounded either way so I dont see them having any problem moving the line as high as -280 or even -290

                      I never said the tiny mexicans were not skilled just pointing out they were a lot smaller than cotto, In my honest opinion, cotto destoys marquez then and now, and I would have said the same thing before the mayweather fight
                      Second that on both counts. That's exactly where I'd set the line. Cotto would destroy Marquez before and after but (IMO) not because he's the better fighter but the bigger fighter. Twenty pounds is a lot to give and Marquez shouldn't be fighting over 130
                      Comment
                      • RobbReport
                        SBR MVP
                        • 09-22-09
                        • 2042

                        #46
                        speed kills is all I gotta say.
                        Comment
                        • Pabinator
                          SBR MVP
                          • 10-04-09
                          • 1238

                          #47
                          Trixie, do they think he can beat Voltron the lion one or the Ship one? LOL
                          Shut your mouth when you talk to Me!
                          Comment
                          • The HOFF
                            SBR MVP
                            • 07-02-08
                            • 4847

                            #48
                            What weight is this at?
                            Comment
                            • BeDtimeHobby
                              SBR Hustler
                              • 07-07-09
                              • 61

                              #49
                              This was exactly what happened on Marquez vs Mayweater fight(line wise). People saw marquez at plus 300 is a very great value, especially he was considered by many before the fight a 2nd p2p in the rankings. True, cotto got a lot of value betting but there's a reason into it, dont you think?

                              I remember during MLB reg. season in one of the sportsbetting show MORENCY this guy loves the value of the Washington Nationals everyday and Morency answered " wtf there's always a good value into this team because they always lose" lol

                              HOFF this is going to be in a welterweight cathweight of 145lbs

                              BTW how do you bet your points? Im willing to bet all my points
                              Comment
                              • Boddhissatva
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 04-10-09
                                • 655

                                #50
                                All analysis set aside..
                                Come fight night...you put your money where your mouth is...

                                I'm still waiting the lines to shrink, which they are...and come fight night I'm betting heavy on Pacman...
                                Pacman is going to cut him early...and hit him often and hit him hard...

                                I'm betting on Pacman to win via KO/TKO
                                Comment
                                • illmatick
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 01-05-09
                                  • 5456

                                  #51
                                  Originally posted by BeDtimeHobby
                                  This was exactly what happened on Marquez vs Mayweater fight(line wise). People saw marquez at plus 300 is a very great value, especially he was considered by many before the fight a 2nd p2p in the rankings. True, cotto got a lot of value betting but there's a reason into it, dont you think?

                                  I remember during MLB reg. season in one of the sportsbetting show MORENCY this guy loves the value of the Washington Nationals everyday and Morency answered " wtf there's always a good value into this team because they always lose" lol

                                  HOFF this is going to be in a welterweight cathweight of 145lbs

                                  BTW how do you bet your points? Im willing to bet all my points
                                  way more value in the cotto line imo,I didnt see a lot of people on marquez, check the fight thread here, most people including myself said to bet on mayweather in what would be an easy 12 round decision victory
                                  Comment
                                  • The HOFF
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 07-02-08
                                    • 4847

                                    #52
                                    Originally posted by BeDtimeHobby
                                    HOFF this is going to be in a welterweight cathweight of 145lbs

                                    BTW how do you bet your points? Im willing to bet all my points
                                    You just have to bet your points on the honor system. Make a bet on the fight and loser transfers points.


                                    Cotto usually fights at 147, correct? What did Pacquiao usually fight at prior to his last 2 fights. What weight did he fight De La Hoya and Hatton at?
                                    Comment
                                    • Pabinator
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 10-04-09
                                      • 1238

                                      #53
                                      I agree way more value in Cotto, No way JMM was gonna beat Mayweather, that line should been -700 for Mayweather
                                      Shut your mouth when you talk to Me!
                                      Comment
                                      • BeDtimeHobby
                                        SBR Hustler
                                        • 07-07-09
                                        • 61

                                        #54
                                        He fought hoya at 147 and hatton at 140.
                                        Comment
                                        • Boddhissatva
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 04-10-09
                                          • 655

                                          #55
                                          Originally posted by Pabinator
                                          I agree way more value in Cotto, No way JMM was gonna beat Mayweather, that line should been -700 for Mayweather

                                          Mayweathers long lay off, and his rib injury were some factors as to why odds weren't as distant as they were....not to mention tha JMM is a great fighter.
                                          Comment
                                          • Trixie
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 03-30-09
                                            • 199

                                            #56
                                            There is no value in Pac whatsoever, imo. If you're gonna bet him, you have to bet him to KO Cotto. I personally don't see it happening (although it is definitely plausible, if he jumps him early and catches him like he did Hatton or Marquez 1) but if you're betting Pac, there's just no value in that line. It is Cotto or nothing, imo.
                                            Comment
                                            • marabdl86
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 10-06-09
                                              • 1067

                                              #57
                                              No one thought Pacman would ko Delahoya... no one though Pacman would ko Hatton...

                                              There's no value to you because you don't have the bankroll risking only 5 units.

                                              Cotto doesn't have the greatest chin, so a Pacman ko is possible
                                              Comment
                                              • illmatick
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 01-05-09
                                                • 5456

                                                #58
                                                lol at no one thought pacman would ko hatton, few people here bet on the k.o, I even had a prop bet on the second round k.o, forgot what it payed but I think the line was around +800
                                                Comment
                                                • Trixie
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 03-30-09
                                                  • 199

                                                  #59
                                                  1 or 5 units is a relative amount you derelict. It has nothing to do with the size of my bankroll but given that I told you in the original post I did this for a living it's likely my bankroll dwarfs yours.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Pabinator
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 10-04-09
                                                    • 1238

                                                    #60
                                                    Ok so who are we betting are hard earned money on again?
                                                    Shut your mouth when you talk to Me!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Trixie
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 03-30-09
                                                      • 199

                                                      #61
                                                      Well, my money is on Cotto. I would also LEAN towards the over. I'm also seriously considering Valuev this weekend, but that bet may not transpire. The over in that fight is probably money though.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • illmatick
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 01-05-09
                                                        • 5456

                                                        #62
                                                        love the over in the valuev fight, locked it up about a weeks ago
                                                        Comment
                                                        • bobby heenan
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 03-20-09
                                                          • 4120

                                                          #63
                                                          cotto can negate pacmans speed advantage with a stiff, well timed, jab...its the key to this fight for cotto...if its timed right...it can stop pac from doing alot of things...its how he beat shane(i was at msg for that one)....ill be flying in from RI on the 13th for this one...was at pacs last fight against hatton on my birthday...cant ****ing wait
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Pabinator
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 10-04-09
                                                            • 1238

                                                            #64
                                                            I cant wait to see what happens in this fight
                                                            Shut your mouth when you talk to Me!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Sekrah
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 10-27-09
                                                              • 240

                                                              #65
                                                              Pacquiao murders Cotto.. This line should be closer to -700.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • illmatick
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 01-05-09
                                                                • 5456

                                                                #66
                                                                Originally posted by Sekrah
                                                                Pacquiao murders Cotto.. This line should be closer to -700.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Pabinator
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 10-04-09
                                                                  • 1238

                                                                  #67
                                                                  For some reason I cant see that happening, atleast the murdering part, although I'd love for that to happen
                                                                  Shut your mouth when you talk to Me!
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                                                                  • CNega
                                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                                    • 11-07-09
                                                                    • 12

                                                                    #68
                                                                    Pacman is winning this hands down. I wish I had $$ to put down on this, but this one will go close to the distance.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Trixie
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 03-30-09
                                                                      • 199

                                                                      #69
                                                                      I can see Pacquiao winning by murder between rounds 1-3. It is definitely possible. But I think, improbable. I've been on Cotto since the day this fight was made and I have seen no reason to change my mind. I just don't think that there is anything Pacquiao can do about the outcome of this fight. He is too one dimensional, he can't fight moving backwards, and I am still not convinced that he has KO power at welterweight. Oscar took upwards of five billion straight right hands from Pac and never looked hurt. Cotto took 11 rounds of concrete against Margarito and was never knocked out.

                                                                      The thing about Cotto is that when you hit him, he hits you back. I can't count how many times I've seen him eat an uppercut, flush (apparently the punch he is most susceptible to) and then instinctively throw a lead hook that lands. Pac will hit Cotto plenty, but Cotto will hit him back and will he able to take it? I'm not so sure.

                                                                      And I just can't get out of my head Pac-Marquez 1, when after raping JMM for the first couple of rounds, Pac found he couldn't steamroll him, and then minced around for 10 or so rounds not knowing exactly what to do. Roach is the best strategist in boxing but it seems to me like he comes into a fight with a - admittedly wonderful - game plan, but if it doesn't work, doesn't come with a Plan B.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Superman_Punch
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 11-07-09
                                                                        • 583

                                                                        #70
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