UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland (December 03, 2022)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN 10:00 pm ET
Stephen Thompson vs. Kevin Holland
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tai Tuivasa
Bryan Barberena vs. Rafael dos Anjos
Matheus Nicolau vs. Matt Schnell
Jack Hermansson vs. Roman Dolidze
Eryk Anders vs. Kyle Daukaus

ESPN+ 7:00 pm ET
Niko Price vs. Phil Rowe
Emily Ducote vs. Angela Hill
Clay Guida vs. Scott Holtzman
Michael Johnson vs. Marc Diakiese
Darren Elkins vs. Jonathan Pearce
Tracy Cortez vs. Amanda Ribas
Natan Levy vs. Genaro Valdez
Francis Marshall vs. Marcelo Rojo
Yazmin Jauregui vs. Istela Nunes

[JIBBBY]

Preliim write ups -





145 lbs.: Darren Elkins vs. Jonathan Pearce

A six-fight winstreak from 2015 to 2018 had Darren Elkins (28-10) on the verge of contention. Then came a four-fight losing streak, though he’s since picked up wins in three of four appearances.
“The Damage” stands two inches shorter than Jonathan Pearce (13-4) at 5’10.”
Pearce ran over Jacob Rosales on the Contender Series, but received a rude Octagon welcome from Joe Lauzon. Dropping to 145 paid immediate dividends, as he went on to win his next four and score three stoppages along the way.
He’s knocked out nine and submitted another two as a professional.
Attrition is the most powerful weapon in Elkins’ arsenal. He’s so exhausting to fight that even if he’s physically or technically overwhelmed early, he claws his way back in with alarming regularity. It’s a trick that’s worked on a surprising number of very capable fighters, but it’s not getting anywhere “JSP.” Pearce has the suffocating grappling and functional standup to take Elkins apart, and more importantly, the man simply does not get tired.
There’s just no clear path to victory against a man eight years his junior who thrives in the exact sort of grind that Elkins prefers. In other words, Pearce takes him apart on the ground, potentially scoring a ground-and-pound finish.
Prediction: Pearce via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! ‘Wonderboy’ Battles ‘Trailblazer’ In Orlando!

125 lbs.: Tracy Cortez vs. Amanda Ribas

Tracy Cortez (10-1) — unbeaten since her professional debut — handed Mariya Agapova her first pro defeat on Contender Series to punch her ticket to the Octagon. Though plagued with inactivity, she’s nonetheless racked up four wins in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion.
She’ll have a two-inch height advantage over Amanda Ribas (11-3), but give up a half-inch of reach.
After three years on the sidelines because of a United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) violation, Ribas opened her UFC career perfect (4-0) with two submission wins. She’s now 1-2 in her last three, a decision over Virna Jandiroba sandwiched between losses to Marina Rodriguez and Katlyn Chookagian.
Her seven professional stoppage wins include four by submission.
The deciding factor here will be which of the two manages to get the other moving backwards. Cortez could be the stronger overall takedown artist, but she has a habit of backing to the fence that the clinch-happy Ribas will be more than happy to exploit. Even if Ribas is unlikely to finish Cortez, it’s easy to picture her grinding her way into enough dominant positions for the win.
I’m still leaning Cortez, though. Ribas is ridiculously easy to hit, even for a middling striker like Cortez, and the latter showed off some excellent defensive grappling against dangerous submission artists like Stephanie Egger and Melissa Gatto. In short, she works her way to another UFC victory with clean right hands, regular takedowns, and enough wherewithal to slip out of Ribas’ moments of success.
Prediction: Cortez via unanimous decision
Related
UFC Orlando Booked For Dec. 3

155 lbs.: Natan Levy vs. Genaro Valdez

Injury kept Natan Levy (7-1) on the sidelines for a year after his Contender Series victory, and things didn’t get much better when Rafa Garcia defeated him in his debut. He proved more successful against Mike Breeden, racking up an impressive nine takedowns en route to victory.
He gives up an inch of reach to “El Rayadito.”
Genaro Valdez (10-1) ended a nearly 15-month layoff by out-warring Patrik White on Contender Series. He made his UFC debut three months later, coming up short in a five-round slugfest with Matt Frevola.
He’s yet to see the judges as a professional, knocking out seven.
They may both be Contender Series graduates, but there’s a massive gulf in class between Levy and Valdez. Valdez is little more than an admirably gutsy brawler, lacking the striking craft to get through Levy’s kick-heavy standup or the wrestling to keep Levy from burying him in takedowns like he did to Breeden.
Unless that loss to Frevola was a “Come to Jesus” moment that makes Valdez re-evaluate his style and focus more on fundamentals, this will be a rout. In the end, Levy overpowers him on the mat for a mid-round finish.
Prediction: Levy via second round submission
Related
Holland Ends Fake Retirement, Battles ‘Wonderboy’ In Orlando

145 lbs.: Marcelo Rojo (16-9) vs. Francis Marshall (6-0)

The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): Latin America 3 semifinalist, Marcelo Rojo (16-9), finally joined UFC in March 2021, falling to Charles Jourdain in an enormously entertaining debut. Next came another dangerous contender in Kyler Philips, who caught “Pitbull” in a triangle armbar midway through the third round.
He gives up an inch of height and reach to Francis Marshall (6-0).
Marshall racked up five amateur wins and four finishes in his first five professional bouts, earning a spot on Contender Series opposite Connor Matthews. Though he failed to find the finish, his 15 minutes of dominance were enough to earn him a contract.
All four of those stoppages came via rear naked choke.
Marshall’s wrestling is a weapon for which Rojo has few answers, and though “Fire” remains overly hittable, his stand up has developed to the point where he can at the very least match Rojo’s brawling with his own effective pressure. The big test is whether Marshall can get Rojo retreating and put the fear of the level change in him before Rojo can tenderize his lead leg.
Between Marshall’s steady improvement and the threat of the takedown preventing Rojo from sitting down on his kicks, that seems doable. So long as the bright lights don’t get to Marshall, he wears down Rojo for a wide decision or late stoppage.
Prediction: Marshall via third round submission
Related
Bookies Peg ‘Wonderboy’ To Top Holland

115 lbs.: Yazmin Jauregui vs. Istela Nunes

Yazmin Jauregui (9-0) capped off her impressive Combate run with three wins in a single night, two of them via knockout. Exactly one year later, she battled her way past late replacement Iasmin Lucindo for her first-ever UFC victory.
She’s scored six knockouts as a professional.
Though she failed to topple Angela Lee in her ONE FC title shot, Istela Nunes capped off her stint in the promotion with a decision over Gina Iniong. She’s still chasing her first win in the Octagon, having lost to Ariane Carnelossi and Sam Hughes in successive efforts.
She’ll enjoy one inch of height and two inches of reach on Jauregui.
The name of the game is “pace.” Nunes’ powerful counters — particularly the step-back right hand she used to great effect against Hughes — are going to give Jauregui fits. The young slugger can still put too much behind her punches and leave herself open to return fire, and it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Nunes really put the hurt on her in the opening round.
Problem is, the Hughes fight showed quite clearly that Nunes can’t fight that way for 15 minutes, while Jauregui is ready, willing and able to throw heat until the final bell. Jauregui’s superior cardio and the wrestling in her back pocket give her the means to claw her way back into the fight once Nunes starts to slow down, so as long as she can survive the early slugfest, she’ll take over down the stretch.
Prediction: Jauregui via unanimous decision


170 lbs.: Niko Price vs. Phil Rowe

After obliterating James Vick with an upkick less than two minutes into their fight, Niko Price (15-5) stumbled his way through a three-fight winless streak. He ultimately got back on track in Oct. 2021, defeating fellow finisher, Alex Oliveira, in Orlando.
This marks his first fight in 14 months.
Phil Rowe (9-3) smashed Leon Shahbazyan to earn a spot in the Octagon, only to drop a decision to Gabe Green in his UFC debut. “The Fresh Prince” has since found his footing with consecutive knockouts of Orion Cosce and Jason Witt.
All of his professional wins have come inside the distance, five of them via knockout.
I get the feeling we’re in for another round of Niko Price Shenanigans, the sort that saw him stop two people from his back and knock Tim Means into another dimension after getting out-classed for most of the round. Even if that magic isn’t there, he should be too much for Rowe, whose “get out-classed by a limited fighter for a while before a dramatic comeback” approach bodes ill against a finisher of this caliber.
Rowe definitely could smash Price with a million-punch combination as before, but Price’s toughness and power make Rowe’s usual slow start a death sentence. In the end, Price smashes Rowe before the latter can get into gear, potentially in dramatic fashion.
Prediction: Price via first round technical knockout
Related
Winning ‘Wonderboy’ Wants Nick Diaz Next

115 lbs.: Angela Hill vs. Emily Ducote

The UFC career-long, three-fight win streak for Angela Hill (14-12) gave way to a 1-5 skid, three of those defeats coming via split decision. With her back against the wall, she survived an early onslaught to upset Lupita Godinez in Aug. 2022.
She stands one inch taller than Ducote and will have a 1.5-inch reach advantage.
Emily Ducote (12-6) knocked out Danielle Taylor to earn Invicta FC’s Strawweight title, which she subsequently defended with a (technical) knockout finish of Alesha Zappitella. She then stepped up on short notice to face Jessica Penne in the Octagon, out-striking her fellow former titlist to claim a unanimous decision win.
Her professional finishes are split 4/3 between submissions and knockouts.
Ugly though her recent record may be, Hill proved that she can still be a landmine for aspiring contenders. She’s easy to underestimate and still sharp this deep into her UFC career. However, I just think Ducote’s got too much for her — her boxing’s more than sharp enough to keep up with Hill on the feet, particularly since she’ll be facing a smaller reach disadvantage than usual, and she’s got some wrestling in her back pocket if that doesn’t work out.
With both an appreciable chance to overpower Hill in “Overkill’s” wheelhouse and the means to change gears as needed, Ducote has too many tools for Hill. When the dust settles, expect her to battle her way to a competitive decision win.
Prediction: Ducote via unanimous decision
Related
UFC Payouts: Hill Banks $190K, More Than Main Event Fighter

155 lbs.: Clay Guida vs. Scott Holtzman

Now in his 17th year in UFC, Clay Guida (37-19) sits at 2-4 in his last six appearances. His last two efforts have seen him tap Leonardo Santos with a bonus-winning, rear-naked choke before succumbing to Claudio Puelles’ signature kneebar four months later.
He stands two inches shorter than Scott Holtzman (14-5), but will enjoy a one-inch reach advantage.
“Hot Sauce” bounced back from a 2-2 UFC start by winning five of his next six, among them a “Fight of the Night” decision over Jim Miller. He’s winless since, suffering knockout losses to Beneil Dariush and Mateusz Gamrot.
He fights for the first time in nearly 20 months.
The argument for Guida is that Holtzman has had issues with persistent wrestlers in the past, most notably against Gamrot and Nik Lentz, and that “The Carpenter” proved against Santos that he’s still tougher than your metaphor of choice. The argument for Holtzman is that his two recent defeats came against Top 10-ranked fighters, he’s the better striker, and Guida’s takedown accuracy often leaves a lot to be desired.
I’m thinking Holtzman. He’s not likely to submit Guida, but I do expect him to hurt Guida a lot more than Guida hurts him even if he can’t put away “The Carpenter.” In short: He edges out a slugfest.
Prediction: Holtzman via split decision
Related
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155 lbs.: Michael Johnson vs. Marc Diakiese

Michael Johnson (21-18) clawed his way out of a 1-5 slump by winning consecutive decisions over Andre FIli and Artem Lobov. History would repeat itself, and he enters the cage on Saturday with just one win in his last six fights.
This will be his 27th Octagon appearance.
The perfect (3-0) UFC start for Marc Diakiese (16-5) gave way to three straight losses to Drakkar Klose, Dan Hooker, and Nasrat Haqparast. “”Bonecrusher” currently sits at 4-2 in his last six, most recently cruising past Viacheslav Borshchev and Damir Hadzovic in 2022.
Six of his seven stoppage wins have come by knockout.
Diakiese’s highlight-reel knockouts earned him some buzz before he stepped foot in the Octagon, but he’s always been willing to lean on his wrestling if it’s the easiest path to victory. I see no reason why he won’t do the same here; Johnson seems physically incapable of fixing his awful bottom game, a weakness that has dogged him throughout his UFC career.
Though Johnson does have solid takedown defense, the sheer volume of level changes Diakiese sends his way should get him down sooner or later. Plus, Diakiese has never been stopped with strikes nor even visibly hurt outside of a wobble against Rafael Alves, so it’s hard to see Johnson sneaking in a kill shot in the rare occasions where he’s allowed to settle on the feet. In the end, Diakiese caps off the year with a third grindfest.
Prediction; Diakiese via unanimous decision

[JIBBBY]

This is a pretty good card. I'm liking it!

Gonna have to fade Wonder boy at those odds. I think he's an old washed up has been at this point. Kevin Holland should spank him.

[JIBBBY]

A few more main card write ups MMA MANIA -

Flyweight: Matheus Nicolau vs. Matt Schnell

Best Win for Nicolau? Manel Kape For Schnell? Louis Smolka
Current Streak: Nicolau has won five in a row (three in UFC), whereas Schnell rebounded last time out
X-Factor: Schnell fights are absolutely chaos as of late
How these two match up: Top 10 Flyweights collide!
Like so many other Flyweights, Nicolau never should have been released in 2019. The Brazilian is extremely technical in all areas, and he is a legitimate finishing threat as well. The 29-year-old is generally just very good, and he’s built up a 6-1 record inside the Octagon.
Schnell is well-rounded also, but he tends to be more extreme in his strengths and weaknesses. Schnell is likely the heavier hitter and more aggressive submission threat. However, he’s also getting knocked down and strangled far more often than Nicolau — his aggression is a double-sided sword to be sure.
Even now, I watch UFC Flyweight fights with a different mindset than most. Having trained with a decent portion of the roster over the years, it’s difficult not to self-insert and wonder, “How would this match up go for me?” Over the years, Nicolau has always stood out as a theoretical foe to-be-avoided, an elite level of opposition without the acclaim of more established names.
The Brazilian is just so polished. His kickboxing is very solid, his takedowns are slick, and his grappling is top-notch. Schnell could theoretically catch him with a big shot or sudden triangle, but barring a quick turn-of-events, Nicolau simply appears to be the better fighter, destined for the title mix.
Prediction: Nicolau via decision
Related
Up Next! ‘Wonderboy’ Battles ‘Trailblazer’ In Orlando!

---

Heavyweight: Tai Tuivasa vs. Sergei Pavlovich

Best Win for Tuivasa? Derrick Lewis For Pavlovich? Derrick Lewis!
Current Streak: Tuivasa lost his last bout, whereas Pavlovich has won four straight
X-Factor: It’s been just three months since Tuivasa was knocked out by Ciryl Gane
How these two match up: Heavyweights brawlers are going to do what they do best.
Tuivasa is a deceptively quick and powerful slugger. There’s a fair bit of craft to the Aussie’s layered offense: his elbows in the clinch, powerful low kicks, and counter punching all separate him from the average big banger. Still, Tuivasa’s toughness and massive punching power remain his greatest attributes.
I wish I knew more about what makes Sergei Pavlovich so dangerous. When he keeps knocking out his UFC opposition in a minute or two, however, it’s tough to make reads beyond recognizing his enormous power! The Russian is a tank, a big man for the division unafraid to put together compact combinations of heavy punches.
I wouldn’t advise betting on this fight. Both men can send the other to the canvas in a senseless heap to easily. Tuivasa’s recent knockout loss is a major question mark as well. He took a ton of damage against Gane, and he’s already prepared to throw down with a truly nasty up-and-comer?
I have zero confidence. Still, Tuivasa has knocked out better opponents and been in there with the division’s best, so I’ll still give him a slight edge.
Prediction: Tuivasa via knockout
Related
Predictions! UFC Orlando ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 1

Predictions! UFC Orlando ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 2

---

Middleweight: Jack Hermansson vs. Roman Dolidze

Best Win for Hermansson? Kelvin Gastelum For Dolidze? Kyle Daukaus
Current Streak: Hermansson won his last bout, whereas Dolidze has won three straight
X-Factor: Dolidze accepted this fight last week!
How these two match up: European grapplers with funky striking throw down!
Hermansson is a very established contender at 185-pounds. Though a title shot continues to elude him, he’s repeatedly proven himself a remarkably tough out. Hermansson is at his best from top position, where he’s a very effective finisher with submissions and strikes alike.
Dolidze has looked wildly dangerous in his last couple trips to the Octagon. Since dropping down to Middleweight, his power has been more consistent, and the accomplished grappler remains a real threat on the floor. Everything seems to be clicking for the Georgian, who now rides quite a bit of momentum into this short-notice opportunity.
This is a classic case of consistency vs. danger. Hermansson is the more consistent round winner of the two. His jab is effective, and his stand up style may be a touch awkward, but he does well to control the flow of fights nevertheless. His wrestling is always a threat, and Hermansson never slows down.
Dolidze isn’t quite as good at winning minute-to-minute exchanges. He’s prone to dropping his activity or sacrificing position for submission attempts on the canvas. However, he’s also shredding knees and knocking people out quickly, and we cannot really say the same for Hermansson.
Fortunately for the Swede, he’s durable and knows his way around a leglock too. Even if Dolidze starts strong, the chances of Hermansson jabbing him up or finding top position and shifting momentum are rather strong.
Prediction: Hermansson via decision
Related
Bookies Peg ‘Wonderboy’ To Top Holland

---

Middleweight: Eryk Anders vs. Kyle Daukaus

Best Win for Anders? For Daukaus? Jared Vanderaa
Current Streak: Anders lost his last two bouts, while Daukaus lost his last fight
X-Factor: Anders struggles to make 185-pounds
How these two match up: This is a very Middleweight fight in that the potential for a very fun scrap is equal to the odds of a real stinker.
Anders is a strange fighter. A tremendous athlete, he’s been on the roster since 2017, but it’s hard to see his technique or strategies have improved much. The Southpaw has a huge left hand, yet he finds himself embroiled in strange wrestling-heavy fights, often of his own choosing.
Daukaus remains a fighter with solid skills but inconsistent success inside the Octagon. A jiu-jitsu black belt without any major holes in his game, it’s not clear why Daukaus has failed to break through at 185 lbs., but his back is against the wall here.
On one hand, Anders’ best performances historically have come against BJJ guys unable to take him down, and there’s a real chance Daukaus falls into that category. However, “Ya Boi” has just looked really flat lately. The power puncher hasn’t knocked anyone out in over three years, relying on lots of cage control to earn the judges’ favor.
Daukaus should have the wrestling chops to avoid such a fate. While I don’t expect him to land many takedowns of his own, volume on the feet should still be enough to earn him the nod in a competitive fight.
Prediction: Daukaus via decision

[209 Life]

Bam Bam vs RDA what a banger.

[JIBBBY]

Solid card looking forward to it!

[richie360]

Solid card looking forward to it!

Really solid fight night card compared to a lot of recent events.

[Brandt Moat]

It's good by me. Put a 2 leg parlay in a few weeks ago on ( Pavlovich & Levy). Just a small wager for interest and a $100 bill. Schnell is my dog pick. Nothing riding on it. Should be some KO's! GL

[hankcream]

This card looks as good if not better than next weeks pay per view.
I've got dog plays on Anders, Tuivasa, & Wonderboy so far, leaning on Dolidze inside the distance

[povis]

Yes UFC 282 would be very decent fight night card just like this one. UFC in 2022 is kinda hit or miss with PPV's. Maybe fighters moving to different promotions such as PFL or ONE and Dana can not capture all prospects with his predatory contracts, I definitely will pay more attention to Bellator, ONE and PFL in 2023 maybe betting markets catch up too.

[JIBBBY]

Liking a bunch of the dogs in this event. They could bark today!

Good luck ya all!

[JIBBBY]

Fire Marshal look tough. Will remember him in future bouts. He has a chin, can punch and can wrestle and no fear even being that young. Solid fight in his debut.

[Allure]

UFC Fight nights are usually underdog heaven. Let's see how it goes tonight.

[Kermit]

WTF? Elkins should have been put back on the mat after they looked at that cut. Ref would have stopped it after a few more blows.

[Thor4140]

This card looks as good if not better than next weeks pay per view.
I've got dog plays on Anders, Tuivasa, & Wonderboy so far, leaning on Dolidze inside the distance

cmon man next week card is very good and if the top fight didn't get cancelled it would have been top three card of the year if not the top.

[JIBBBY]

WTF? Elkins should have been put back on the mat after they looked at that cut. Ref would have stopped it after a few more blows.

I had Pearce ITD.

Ref could have stopped that in the 2nd round. Hey but Elkins is one tough SOB bleeding like a gutted pig or not.

[Kermit]

I had Pearce ITD.

Ref could have stopped that in the 2nd round. Hey but Elkins is one tough SOB bleeding like a gutted pig or not.

So did I, along with him ITD in a couple parlays.


You don't stop a fight to check a cut when the other fighter has a dominant position and then let them start fighting on the feet.

That is fukking bullshit.

[JIBBBY]

That dog hit with MJ.. Shut down that loud mouth flashy Brit.

Here comes a couple of dinosaurs up next. I'm rooting for Guida and betting on him. See what sticks here? I never like betting on fighters when they say this is my last fight.

[JIBBBY]

Guida that's another dog that hit .. Yes!

[JIBBBY]

Angela Hill whooping that ass. Another dog about to hit! RUFF RUFF!

[Brandt Moat]

Pothead Rowe going to the garage to get right myself! Smoke up boys. Rowe is up.

[JIBBBY]

UFC covering CANCER tonight -

Cancer sucks!!!

Gotta eat your fruits and veggies daily to avoid that shit. Juice your veggies and drink that daily on top of that. No way you'll get cancer.

That's what I do. I got gas though when I sleep from that

[JIBBBY]

Pothead Rowe going to the garage to get right myself! Smoke up boys. Rowe is up.

Good call Moaty as I was on Rowe as well. That fight was sketchy though. I always fade Price as he can't be trusted..

[Brandt Moat]

Didn't have anything on it. Just like him. Got the second leg of a parlay on Pavlovich.

[Brandt Moat]

1st leg was Levy. I'm looking to fade him. Gas tank problems. Some holes in his game for sure.

[JIBBBY]

Anders.... Another dog barks

[JIBBBY]

Roman the dog again next for me!

[Brandt Moat]

Dolidze I like his chances. Needs to get some respect early. I feel he is better on the ground. Joker has some slow quick twitch muscles. Lacks hand speed. That's were Roman can make his path to victory.

[JIBBBY]

Dolidze I like his chances. Needs to get some respect early. I feel he is better on the ground. Joker has some slow quick twitch muscles. Lacks hand speed. That's were Roman can make his path to victory.

As long as he can keep the fight standing I think he will get this.. Joker tough on the ground..

[Brandt Moat]

Sucks I can't bet. The 1st of January my state gets sports gambling. I have to drive to PA line or put em in when I'm at a WV or PA casino.

[JIBBBY]

Sucks I can't bet. The 1st of January my state gets sports gambling. I have to drive to PA line or put em in when I'm at a WV or PA casino.

Bovada.com lay a card down or deposit crypto. Great book for MMA betting and props.

[JIBBBY]

Roman the dog again next for me!

6 straight dog hits and I'm cleaning up now! This is awesome!

[Kermit]

Beautiful finish by Roman.

[JIBBBY]

The Joker got caught in a NASTY calf slicer. That must have hurt along with the ground and pound! OUCH! Shocked he didn't tap!

[Brandt Moat]

I think Roman looked pretty good on the ground. Dude will be someone to keep riding.