UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus (March 26, 2022)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN 7:00 pm ET
Curtis Blaydes vs. Chris Daukaus
Alexa Grasso vs. Joanne Wood
Askar Askarov vs. Kai Kara-France
Matt Brown vs. Bryan Barberena
Ilir Latifi vs. Aleksei Oleinik

ESPN+ 4:00 pm ET
Jennifer Maia vs. Manan Fiorot
Neil Magny vs. Max Griffin
Marc Diakiese vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
Sara McMann vs. Karol Rosa
Danaa Batgerel vs. Chris Gutierrez
David Dvorak vs. Matheus Nicolau
Aliaskhab Khizriev vs. Denis Tiuliulin
Luis Saldana vs. Bruno Souza

[hankcream]

Kind of a shitty card after last weekend, lots of female and old fossil fights. Going with 2 dogs early - Guitierrez & Diakiese

[Brandt Moat]

Been getn knicked. Feel like I'm forcing bets on lesser talent. More volatile outcomes with lower I.Q. fighters. Going to watch an event. The next one in Jacksonville is the real deal. Title fights and great match ups. GL

[Thor4140]

Been waiting for this kid to fight forever and they throw up this bullshit line ALIASKHAB KHIZRIEV. -550 now. i hate betting these hig fav but i might get sucked into this one. watch him slip and tear his knee now. this kid is a steam roller. This Russian i believe, will be a star

[Thor4140]

ill get some juice on Daukaus. i know one of his training partners. Daukaus has some very good Ju Jitz so he should be able to handle Blaydes wrestling a bit.

[magpie878]

Blaydes is deservedly a big favorite. Surprise KO or bust for Daukaus. He even got outclassed by Lewis, not just the "one punch is all it takes", he got beat easily.

Blaydes with every statistical physical advantage, for what it's worth and the best HW wrestler. Not the greatest takedowns, but has a ton, and he'll try. And try.

I don't often think Blaydes will finish someone, but I think he gets a GnP type TKO win this week.

[Thrilla]

Maycee Barber

[Thor4140]

Blaydes is deservedly a big favorite. Surprise KO or bust for Daukaus. He even got outclassed by Lewis, not just the "one punch is all it takes", he got beat easily.

Blaydes with every statistical physical advantage, for what it's worth and the best HW wrestler. Not the greatest takedowns, but has a ton, and he'll try. And try.

I don't often think Blaydes will finish someone, but I think he gets a GnP type TKO win this week.

When was the last time he fought someone who could sub ya. Dos Santos? He hasn’t tried a sub in years. I think his last ten opponents there was one sub in 2016. Blaydes/Lewis two completely different fighters. there is no way this line should be this high.

[Brandt Moat]

Checked this guy out as much as my low computer skills permitted. Let me bounce some of this off ya. How many fights has he fought at 185? Reason for asking, he looks horrible physically. Not a quality I weigh in on much! Just gives me this Askren feeling.lol He can't be that bad. With his recent injuries and cancellations, I would wait til weigh-ins and get a look. Not doubting your pick just curious as how he can be a -560(Rivers Pitt) favorite. With all his recent problems. The closer it gets to fight nite the more likely I am to get to the Burgh and join the action. GL

Been waiting for this kid to fight forever and they throw up this bullshit line ALIASKHAB KHIZRIEV. -550 now. i hate betting these hig fav but i might get sucked into this one. watch him slip and tear his knee now. this kid is a steam roller. This Russian i believe, will be a star

[Thor4140]

Checked this guy out as much as my low computer skills permitted. Let me bounce some of this off ya. How many fights has he fought at 185? Reason for asking, he looks horrible physically. Not a quality I weigh in on much! Just gives me this Askren feeling.lol He can't be that bad. With his recent injuries and cancellations, I would wait til weigh-ins and get a look. Not doubting your pick just curious as how he can be a -560(Rivers Pitt) favorite. With all his recent problems. The closer it gets to fight nite the more likely I am to get to the Burgh and join the action. GL

What you are saying about his injuries and cancellations have real merit. I think he drills this guy but i am not chancing it. He is parlay material. Had no idea this was at 185 so i diff ain’t going with this fight

[Brandt Moat]

I fooked it up a bit. He backed out on the Alessio DiChirico fight Aug. 2021 with an injury. Scheduled to fight Thurman Feb. 2021 "Thurman" backed out. A few months later he was scheduled to fight Kyle Daukaus it was cancelled due to covid. Not sure which one tested positive. He was fighting at 170 and not very fit. At 185 he may lack some strength and explosiveness.

[Brandt Moat]

He is up to -715 from last night (-560) to this morning. You are not the only one that likes this fighter!!

[magpie878]

When was the last time he fought someone who could sub ya. Dos Santos? He hasn’t tried a sub in years. I think his last ten opponents there was one sub in 2016. Blaydes/Lewis two completely different fighters. there is no way this line should be this high.

When was the last time Daukaus subbed someone? Never.

OF COURSE anything is possible. There's a reason it's this wide. Who's Daukaus beaten, despite the hype? The last two wins are against guys totaling roughly 80 years old. Porter isn't very good. Nas, that was a surprising, nice KO win. Blaydes has fought, and mostly beaten, good heavyweights. Daukaus also isn't used to fighting people bigger than he is.

It'll be interesting, maybe. Or be a wrestlefook. You can know whomever you know, but if you can tell me what Daukaus has actually done to deserve some -110 -110 line or something, please elaborate.

[hankcream]

Daukaus was exposed in his last fight against Lewis, he doesn't have the strength to hang with the elite heavyweights. A year ago he was ranked higher than Aspinall and I was praying that the UFC would match them up because I would have unloaded my wife's retirement fund on Aspinall.

13.5 units Blaydes ITD -135

[Thor4140]

Daukaus was exposed in his last fight against Lewis, he doesn't have the strength to hang with the elite heavyweights. A year ago he was ranked higher than Aspinall and I was praying that the UFC would match them up because I would have unloaded my wife's retirement fund on Aspinall.

13.5 units Blaydes ITD -135

what is being exposed by a big heavy hitter and fighting a wrestling dominating fighter have in common? I am not saying Daukaus is some killer but styules make fights and he is the heavy hitter in this with a blackbelt against just a wrestler

[Thor4140]

When was the last time Daukaus subbed someone? Never.

OF COURSE anything is possible. There's a reason it's this wide. Who's Daukaus beaten, despite the hype? The last two wins are against guys totaling roughly 80 years old. Porter isn't very good. Nas, that was a surprising, nice KO win. Blaydes has fought, and mostly beaten, good heavyweights. Daukaus also isn't used to fighting people bigger than he is.

It'll be interesting, maybe. Or be a wrestlefook. You can know whomever you know, but if you can tell me what Daukaus has actually done to deserve some -110 -110 line or something, please elaborate.

nobody said anything about a -110 line but good try

[Thor4140]

He is up to -715 from last night (-560) to this morning. You are not the only one that likes this fighter!!

i dont like him that much. in fact i don't like him at 4 to 1. he isn't even parlay material at that price.

[magpie878]

nobody said anything about a -110 line but good try

You're taking him. What is your opinion on what the line should be?

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups -




135 lbs.: Chris Gutierrez vs. Danaa Batgerel

Chris Gutierrez (17-3-2) had the misfortune of debuting against Raoni Barcelos on less than a two-month turnaround, resulting in his first-ever submission defeat. He enters the cage this Saturday unbeaten in his last six, the lone blemish a unanimous draw against Cody Durden.
He stands two inches taller than Danaa Batgerel (10-2), but gives up three inches of reach.
Danaa came up short in his UFC debut against Alatengheili, but walked away with a “Performance of the Night” bonus after three hard-fought rounds. Later efforts proved far more efficient, knocking out his last three opponents in less than one round apiece.
His eight finishes are split 6/2 between knockouts and submissions.
Despite their success in the Octagon, both men have a lot to prove. Virtually all of their victories have come over very limited opposition; this is easily each man’s toughest assignment to date. It’s also a great clash of styles, pitting Gutierrez’s sharpshooting against Danaa’s bulldozing power.
It’s every bit the coin flip the odds suggest, but I’ve got Gutierrez by a hair. While Danaa could just bully him to the fence and tee off, Gutierrez’s low kicks look like a game changer, and Danaa’s reluctance to use his wrestling may prove pivotal. In short, Gutierrez tears up Danaa’s lead leg for a mid-round finish.
Prediction: Gutierrez via second round technical knockout
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125 lbs.: Matheus Nicolau vs. David Dvorak

Despite claiming victory in his first three UFC appearances, Matheus Nicolau (17-3-1) was removed from the roster after a head kick loss to Dustin Ortiz. He proceeded to score a pair of wins on the international circuit, then returned to the Octagon to edge out Manel Kape and Tim Elliott.
He faces a two-inch reach disadvantage, but stands one inch taller than David Dvorak (20-3).
The Czech Republic’s “Undertaker” rode a 13-fight win streak into the Octagon, all of them inside the distance. He went the full 15 minutes in UFC bouts with Bruno Silva and Jordan Espinosa, then returned to his finishing ways by choking out late replacement Juancamilo Ronderos.
He has knocked out and submitted eight professional foes apiece.
It’s honestly bonkers that this fight is so far down the “Prelims” line up. Not only are they both Top 10-ranked fighters in a red-hot division, but they consistently put on entertaining fights. They should not have lower billing than multiple fighters on losing streaks.
In terms of actual analysis, all signs point to a technical slugfest. Dvorak has the sharper hands, while Nicolau is gritty as hell and has some strong wrestling in his back pocket. I’m leaning Dvorak’s way because he’s shown quality takedown defense thus far in the Octagon and, critically, looks to be much more defensively sound on the feet. Expect a fast-paced, back-and-forth affair that Dvorak edges out with cleaner connections.
Prediction: Dvorak via unanimous decision
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185 lbs.: Aliaskhab Khizriev vs. Denis Tiuliulin

Aliaskhab Khizriev (13-0) put together a dominant run under the Fight Nights Global banner, including a 58-second knockout of UFC veteran, Rousimar Palhares. “The Black Wolf” needed even less time to claim a contract on Contender Series, choking out Henrique Shiguemoto in just 50 seconds.
This marks his first appearance in 1.5 years and just his second in the last four, as assorted issues scrapped three prior scheduled UFC debuts.
Denis Tiuliulin (9-5) started his professional career 4-1 before falling into a 1-3 (1 NC) slump. He now sits at 4-1 in his last five, including a first-round knockout his last time out.
He steps in for Abusipyan Magomedov on less than three weeks’ notice.
For Tiuliulin’s sake, Khizriev had better be rusty. The former has long struggled with takedown defense due to the way he charges in and easily gives up his back once he hits the ground, making it seemingly inevitable that “The Black Wolf” will drag him to the mat and score another quick finish. It’s not like Tiuliulin has much of an edge on the feet, either.
Even if Khizriev does start slow, his grappling is so dominant and Tiuliulin so vulnerable to it that it won’t even matter. In the end, an early takedown will set up either a ground-and-pound or rear-naked choke finish.
Prediction: Khizriev via first round submission
Related
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145 lbs.: Luis Saldana vs. Bruno Souza

A front kick finish of Vince Murdock on Contender Series earned Luis Saldana (15-7) both his fourth consecutive finish and a UFC contract. He narrowly defeated Jordan Griffin in his Octagon debut and started strong against Austin Lingo his next time out, but faded down the stretch for his first loss since 2017.
His 14 professional finishes include eight via submission.
Bruno Silva (10-2) — who hadn’t tasted defeat since his professional debut — defeated Javier Garcia to claim the LFA Featherweight title in Aug. 2021. Three months later, he stepped up on short notice to fight Melsik Baghdasaryan, who claimed the first two rounds and turned aside a late surge to secure a decision.
“The Tiger” gives up three inches of reach to Saldana.
For as much grief as I give UFC matchmakers, I do try to give credit where and when it’s due. This is a really nice “put up or shut up” fight between skilled (but flawed) strikers who’ve struggled to find their footing inside the Octagon.
Even though he should probably be 0-2 in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion, this looks like Saldana’s fight. More reach, more stopping power, better range management. The only area where Souza has a definitive edge is cardio, but he doesn’t push a hard enough pace to drain Saldana’s limited gas tank. Considering the way Souza let Baghdasaryan tee off on his legs with impunity, expect Saldana to make the most of his length, pile on the low kicks, and potentially fend off a third-round comeback en route to victory.
Prediction: Saldana via unanimous decision



125 lbs.: Jennifer Maia vs. Manon Fiorot

An armbar finish of Joanne Wood earned Jennifer Maia (19-8-1) a crack at division champion, Valentina Shevchenko, who survived a shaky first round to comfortably out-point the Brazilian over five rounds. She has since split a pair of bouts, defeating Jessica Eye before dropping a decision to Katlyn Chookagian for a second time.
She gives up three inches of height and one inch of reach to “The Beast.”
Manon Fiorot (8-1) started her UFC run with consecutive (technical) knockouts over Victoria Leonardo and Tabatha Ricci to extend her finishing streak to five. Though she needed the judges her next time out, she nonetheless emerged victorious against fellow division standout Mayra Bueno Silva.
Seven of her professional victories have come by form of knockout.
That win over Silva was the biggest of Fiorot’s career, but also one of the most concerning. Her insistence on throwing the same combination over and over instead of mixing in body and leg strikes showed a lack of variety that could doom “The Beast’s” chances of being a title threat. It was only Silva’s refusal or outright inability to adapt that got Fiorot the win.
Honestly, though, even that version of her should win here. Maia is far more fearsome than Jessica Eye (Fiorot’s original opponent), but will still have all sorts of trouble getting through that reach disadvantage to corral the Frenchwoman. In addition, she lacks the wrestling to pierce Fiorot’s takedown defense, meaning her Brazilian jiu-jitsu advantage is a non-factor. With all due respect to Maia, the question here isn’t whether Fiorot will win, but how good she’ll look doing it. In the end, Fiorot takes her apart at range with her usual blend of volume, power and footwork.
Prediction: Fiorot via unanimous decision
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170 lbs.: Neil Magny vs. Max Griffin

A 10-1 run for Neil Magny (25-9) gave way to a 3-3 skid, all three losses coming inside the distance. He has since rebounded with wins in four of his last five, including upsets over Li Jingliang and Geoff Neal.
He boasts four inches of height reach on Max Griffin (18-8).
Despite his obvious abilities, Griffin struggled to find his footing in the Octagon, dropping six of his first nine UFC bouts. He’s gone on to find the consistency that previously eluded him with three straight wins, among them a bonus-winning knockout of Song Kenan.
He’s knocked out nine professional foes and submitted another two.
For all of Griffin’s recent success, Magny’s been at or above his level for years. He’s taller, rangier, more durable, more proven with his cardio, and has the wrestling to put Griffin on his back like so many others have before. Griffin’s superior power won’t make much of a difference when his opportunities to use it will be few and far between.
This should be a classic Magny performance, mixing long-range offense with regular takedown attempts to keep Griffin from ever getting comfortable. Max “Pain” has some pop, sure, but only a perfect shot from Santiago Ponzinibbio has ever managed to put Magny down for good. This will end with a clear decision for Magny.
Prediction: Magny via unanimous decision
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155 lbs.: Marc Diakiese vs. Viacheslav Borshchev

Marc Diakiese (14-5) started his UFC career 3-0 before dropping three straight to dangerous contenders Drakkar Klose, Dan Hooker and Nasrat Haqparast. Though he got back on track by beating Joe Duffy and Lando Vannata, he enters Saturday’s bout having lost his last two.
“Bonecrusher” will enjoy a four-inch reach advantage despite being the shorter of the two by an inch.
Viacheslav Borshchev (6-1) punched his ticket to the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion by poleaxing unbeaten Chris Duncan on Contender Series. “Slava Claus” was similarly effective in his UFC debut, which saw him fold Dakota Bush with a bonus-winning liver shot late in the first round.
All but one of his professional victories have come via (technical) knockout.
It’s probably still too early to write off the 29-year-old Diakiese, but it’s clear he’s peaked well below where we thought he would. The top-notch athleticism, legitimate power and sneaky wrestling at his disposal still haven’t coalesced into a consistently effective game.
That’s not to say he’s totally doomed here because those evil low kicks of his have defused strong strikers in the past and his wrestling is legit. Either one could trip up the still-inexperienced Borshchev. More likely, though, Borshchev’s superior technical striking and excellent ability to get back to his feet keep Diakiese on the defense for the full 15 minutes.
Prediction: Borshchev via unanimous decision
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135 lbs.: Sara McMann vs. Karol Rosa

Undaunted by a 1-3 slump, Sara McMann (12-6) fought her way back into contention by defeating her next three foes. She now sits at 1-3 since 2017, however, most recently suffering a comeback submission loss to Julianna Pena.
This will be her first fight in 14 months due to injury.
Brazil’s Karol Rosa (15-3) kicked off her UFC tenure with a war against Lara Procopio, which saw her claim a split decision in her first trip to the judges in more than three years. Assorted issues have held her to just three appearances in the 2.5 years since, though she’s won via unanimous decision each time out.
She’s the younger of the two by 14 years and sports a one-inch reach advantage.
What’s so frustrating about picking a McMann fight is that she clearly can beat just about any Bantamweight on the planet ... even in her 40s. Outside of her bouts with Ronda Rousey and Amanda Nunes, she never gets dominated — she’s always winning until she suddenly isn’t.
I like her chances here better than the bookies do because Rosa isn’t a submission threat, but I simply cannot trust a fighter this prone to implosion. While it wouldn’t be surprising to see McMann wrestle her into the dirt, her inability to consistently execute has me leaning toward Rosa’s high-volume offense.
Prediction: Rosa via unanimous decision

[hankcream]

what is being exposed by a big heavy hitter and fighting a wrestling dominating fighter have in common? I am not saying Daukaus is some killer but styules make fights and he is the heavy hitter in this with a blackbelt against just a wrestler

I have nothing against Daukaus & would probably buy him a beer if I ran in to him at a bar. But he’s a flabby ex-cop, I’m definitely not risking $ on him

[JIBBBY]

^^Gotta go with the wrestler Blaydes in this one but not at those odds. I may take a pass on it or take a wild shot at Daukaus by KO for small on the prop odds.

[PaperTrail07]

Not the best but Ill be there row 2

[JC2008]

Latifi fight's scrapped.

[JIBBBY]

That first fight seemed like a judging robbery to me.

Bruno walked him down all fight. BS judging. I thought Bruno won rounds 2 and 3.

Saldana was gassed and did nothing much in that 3rd round to win it.

[JIBBBY]

Latifi fight's scrapped.

I was looking forward to that. I had Latifi by KO.

[Demonata]

Ok I have my beer! Time to watch ufc!!!

[JIBBBY]

Many of these fights are going to decision tonight.

[Kermit]

Time for Jo Jo to do porn.

[JIBBBY]

White boy got dropped. Always bet on black!!

[magpie878]

Daukaus outclassed again. Not ready for the top guys.

[hankcream]

Easy money on the main event. Daukaus seems like a decent guy but he’s never going to be a top level fighter. He should probably go into coaching.

[PaperTrail07]

He is too small and out of shape for Heavy IMO....didnt look like he had a chance in there ....ALSO being there live....I see how fights get misjudged.....its not as easy as you think when scoring a fight....its legit easier on TV IMO.....

Daukaus outclassed again. Not ready for the top guys.

[Thor4140]

Nobody thinks Daukaus is going to be the Champion but he is better than a lot of these guys. Let’s not forget he took a terrible accidental eye poke that didn’t help matters and he fought one of the best fighters in the world who has improved greatly