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Damn why is this so early?Comment -
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Interesting, Khabib looked like he had a tough weight cut- drained and very relieved he made weight, Gaethje looked great.Comment -
Really liking Over 2.5 as an alternative to Khabib ML. Think it's unlikely Khabib stops Gaethje early, and a fairly easy hedge (if you wish) in Gaethje KO or R1/2.Comment -
Prelim write ups..
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140 lbs.: Nathaniel Wood vs. Casey Kenney
Nathaniel Wood (17-4) has thus far lived up to his nickname, “The Prospect,” inside the Octagon, amassing a 4-1 record with three stoppage victories. Though he suffered his first loss since 2016 in a February bout with John Dodson, he got back on track last July with a decision over John Castaneda.
That trip to the judges was his first since 2015 and just his third overall.
Casey Kenney (15-2-1) put a 1-1 “Contender Series” run behind him to win LFA titles at Flyweight and Bantamweight, defeating current standout Brandon Royval in the process. He is likewise 4-1 in UFC and makes a three-week turnaround after dominating Alateng Heili earlier this month.
He’ll enjoy an inch of height and reach on Wood.
This is one of the two best match ups on the undercard, a clash between genuinely elite prospects with interestingly mirrored development. Wood, previously known as a slugger, has leaned heavily on his wrestling to get the job done in the Octagon. Kenney, a judo and wrestling expert, has shown excellent striking in recent efforts.
It’s an excellent coin-flip of a fight.
Wood’s durability issues and increasing reliance on the ground game have me picking Kenney. What advantages Wood hold in the stand up aren’t enough to overcome the fact that Kenney can take a better shot and figures to be the superior wrestler. In the end, Kenney racks up top control and holds his own on the feet to claim an entertaining decision.
Prediction: Kenney via unanimous decision
Related
Watch: UFC 254 Countdown - Khabib Vs. Gaethje Full Episode
125 lbs.: Liana Jojua vs. Miranda Maverick
Liana Jojua (8-3) upset Marina Mokhnatkina for the Fight Nights Global Bantamweight belt in 2018, but couldn’t do the same to Sarah Moras in her Octagon debut 18 months later. She returned to action this past July, tapping Diana Belbita via first-round armbar for her sixth win in her last seven fights.
Five of her six professional submission wins have come by armbar.
Undeterred by a 2019 loss to DeAnna Bennett, Miranda Maverick (7-2) got her revenge by tapping the TUF veteran out in the Phoenix Series 2 Finals. Then came former Invicta title challenger Pearl Gonzalez, whom Maverick defeated by decision in February.
Though one inch shorter than Jojua, she’ll have a three-inch reach advantage.
This is not a favorable match up for Jojua, to say the least. Maverick’s the better striker and by far the stronger wrestler, leaving a submission off of her back as “She Wolf’s” only feasible chance at victory. Even if Maverick does oblige her in a ground battle, however, the Octagon newcomer has shown more than enough offensive and defensive submission chops to dominate there as well.
Jojua needs a golden opportunity to fall in her lap if she wants the win, and Maverick —though far from a finished product — isn’t likely to give it to her. In short, Maverick dominates everywhere en route to a late finish.
Prediction: Maverick via third-round submission
Related
Up Next! Khabib Defends On Fight Island!
155 lbs.: Joel Alvarez vs. Alexander Yakovlev
Joel Alvarez (17-2) — who had won 10 consecutive fights — had the misfortune of facing former M-1 champ Damir Ismagulov in his debut and lost a wide decision. Recent efforts have proven more successful, as “El Fenomeno” pounded out Danilo Belluardo and choked out Joe Duffy in successive efforts.
His 17 professional finishes include 15 by submission.
Alexander Yakovlev (25-10-1) sat out for 2.5 years after losses to Kamaru Usman, then successfully returned in April of last year with a submission finish of Alex da Silva. He then took on Roosevelt Roberts, who defeated him by competitive decision.
“Thunder of the North” is one inch taller than Alvarez, but gives up three inches of reach.
Yakovlev is insanely durable, a decent wrestler, and can strikes some. He shouldn’t be just 3-5 in the Octagon, and if I had faith in his ability to actually produce enough offense, I’d pick him to score the upset; Alvarez’s poor wrestling means his success or failure in the cage often depends on his opponent’s willingness to take him down despite the inherent danger.
Alas, Yakovlev lands less than two significant strikes per minute and showed some cracks in his submission defense against Zak Cummings. He has the skills to sprawl-and-brawl, so a win isn’t out of the question, but he’ll more than likely just self-sabotage his way to another defeat.
Prediction: Alvarez via first-round submission
265 lbs.: Stefan Struve vs. Tai Tuivasa
Stefan Struve (29-12) snapped a three-fight losing streak with a comeback submission of Marcos Rogerio de Lima in February of last year, then announced his intention to leave the sport on a high note. Unable to stay away, he returned in Dec. 2019 to face Ben Rothwell, who used heavy punches and a series of low blows to fell the towering Dutchman.
All told, 27 of his 29 professional victories have come inside the distance, 18 of them by submission.
Tai Tuivasa (10-3) — an acolyte of Mark Hunt — looked like UFC’s next big Australian thing after starting his Octagon career perfect (3-0). He has since evened his record with three consecutive defeats, most recently tapping to a Sergey Spivak arm triangle little more than one year ago.
He gives up 10 inches of height and 9.5 inches of reach to “The Skyscraper.”
This is about as binary a match up as you’re likely to see. If Struve gets it to the ground, he should have little difficulty tapping the grappling-inept “Bam Bam” in short order. If the pair spend any length of time on the feet, Tuivasa will knock Struve’s battered mandible into the fifth row.
As disappointing as Tuivasa’s recent efforts have been, Struve remains as profoundly hittable as ever, and if there’s one thing Tuivasa doesn’t lack, it’s killer instinct. So long as he doesn’t dally in the clinch and leave himself open to Struve’s tricky throws, expect Tuivasa to back Struve to the fence and repeat Hunt’s efforts with a crushing series of punches.
Prediction: Tuivasa via first-round technical knockout
Related
Watch: UFC 254 Countdown - Khabib Vs. Gaethje Full Episode
170 lbs.: Alex Oliveira vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov
Following a main event loss to Donald Cerrone in 2016, Alex Oliveira (22-8-1) went 6-1 (1 NC) in his next eight, taking home three post-fight bonuses in the process. Then came a three-fight skid, from which he bounced back with decisions over Max Griffin and Peter Sobotta earlier this year.
“Cowboy” steps in for Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos on around 2.5 weeks’ notice.
Kazakhstan’s Shavkat Rakhmonov (12-0) has never seen the judges as a professional, ending all but one of his 12 bouts within two rounds. His 2019 campaign saw him knock out Daniil Prikaza for the M-1 belt and defend it three months later with first-round finish of Tiago Varejao.
This will be his first fight in almost 16 months, as planned debuts in March and July both fell through.
This fight’s outcome depends entirely on how long it lasts. Rakhmonov was flash KO’d early in a 2018 comeback win over Faridun Odilov, which should give the ultra-powerful Oliveira some hope. The Kazakh did end up surviving, though, and we’ve consistently seen Oliveira fall apart by about the midway point of the second round. Rakhmonov is both a sufficiently adept wrestler to keep Oliveira from cruising to victory on top and delivers some hellacious ground-and-pound, meaning Oliveira can’t just hold on from his back to survive once the gas tank empties.
I ever-so-slightly favor Rakhmonov, who’s shown some improved striking of late and can absolutely decimate Oliveira if the latter fails to find an early finish. In short, Rakhmonov survives the early storm to pound out the Brazilian late.
Prediction: Rakhmonov via third-round technical knockout
Related
‘Is He A Man, Or Is He A Machine?’
205 lbs.: Da Un Jung vs. Sam Alvey
Da Un Jung (13-2) stumbled out of the professional gate with losses to Jun Soo Lim and future UFC competitor Roque Martinez, but went on to win 10 straight and secure a spot in the Octagon last year. He started his UFC campaign with a guillotine finish of Khadis Ibragimov, then took just 64 seconds to knock out Mike Rodriguez in Dec. 2019.
He has knocked out 10 professional foes and submitted two others.
Sam Alvey (33-14) successfully kicked off his UFC light heavyweight campaign by beating Marcin Prachnio and Gian Villante, extending his ongoing run to 7-2 in the process. He hasn’t tasted victory since, entering the cage this Saturday on a four-fight losing streak.
He faces a two-inch height disadvantage and a three-inch reach disadvantage.
Here’s an interesting factoid for you: Alvey, the notorious power-puncher, has only scored one knockout since 2016. That’s an 11-fight span wherein he only managed to stop Marcin Prachnio, who charged face-first into Alvey’s counter. Expecting him to put away Jung, a naturally larger man with enough length to steer clear of Alvey’s haymakers, doesn’t seem wise.
The question is less whether Jung will win and more whether he’ll get the knockout; Alvey’s chin has looked a bit shaky lately, so I say he does. Heavy punches bump the Korean slugger to 3-0 in the Octagon.
Prediction: Jung via first-round technical knockoutComment -
DraftKings only has OU 4.5 rounds. Over is +150 and under is -200.
PointsBet NJ is the same, unless you do add a winner (i.e. Khabib and over 2.5).... their 4.5 is over +155 and under -200.
Unibet PA is the same, 4.5 only. Over +150 and under -200.
Oh well.Comment -
Oliviera came in heavy-thinking he uses his wrestling here to an aggressive new guy
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Yeah-fighter must not have a % of PPV, that's for sure---most overseas don't pay PPV.....BT sport gives you all the PPV's included ect....Comment -
Going big on Tai Tuivasa, he looked good at the weigh in and he moved to the US a while ago to train with Cormier and Cain Velasquez, I think he was Cormier's main training partner for the Stipe fight. Plus coming off 3 losses in a row, if he doesn't win he'll probably be gone and Struve has been known to quit and I don't think he can take many big shots from Tuivasa.
2 units Tuivasa -104
.5 unit Tuivasa by KO/TKO or DQ +175
.5 unit Tuivasa by KO/TKO or DQ Rd 1 +425Comment -
Maverick Completes 1 Round -250
Yako 1 round -235
khabib 2 rounds -145Comment -
I posted in other thread:
PointsBet NJ has:
Gaethje and under 2.5 at +560
Gaethje and over 2.5 at +400
Khabib and under 2.5 at +175
Khabib and over 2.5 at +128
EDIT: also has end-of-round bets... To proceed to round 3 at end of 2 is -152.
And to proceed to round 4 after 3 is +102Comment -
Did anyone notice how fast the guy at the scale slid the bar over when Khabib had to drop his pants and get on the scale. I don't think he even looked at it he just said 155. Damn Russians are awfully sneakyComment -
another ass to be kicked by KHABIBComment -
Hugo as i remember you betted decent units in several Whittaker fights(on and vs him) and won a lot so would like your opinion on this fight. I like Cannonier and will bet him just deciding how big.Comment -
Khabib been chopping trees, he done something new this camp.
He's wrestled with alligators,
He's tussled with a whale.
Khabib done handcuffed lightning
And throw thunder in jail.
You know he's bad.
just last week, Khabib murdered a rock,
Injured a stone, Hospitalized a brick.
Khabibs so mean, he makes medicine sick.Comment -
Party time
Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo
1.1u Joel Alvarez -162
0.2u Joel Alvarez by Submission +175
0.2u Liana Jojua By Submission +900
1.1u Parlay
Miranda Maverick -377
Da Un Jung -340
Magomed Ankalaev -335
(+113)
0.2u Da Un Jung in Round 1 by KO/TKO or DQ +225
0.2u Sam Alvey +276
1.1u Shavkat Rakhmonov -127
1.1u Casey Kenney -160
0.2u Casey Kenney By KO,TKO OR DQ +784
0.2u Casey Kenney by Points +135
0.15u Magomed Ankalaev in Round 2 by KO/TKO or DQ +550
0.15u Magomed Ankalaev in Round 3 by KO/TKO or DQ +1200
0.25u Lauren Murphy Wins Inside Distance +350
1.1u Parlay
Lauren Murphy -205
Alexander Volkov -176
Khabib Nurmagomedov -310
(+209)
0.55u TOTAL u1½+113 - (Jacob Malkoun vrs Phil Hawes)
1.1u Alexander Volkov -176
0.2u Alexander Volkov in Round 1 by KO/TKO or DQ +700
0.55u Jared Cannonier -110
0.55u Jared Cannonier/Robert Whittaker over 2½ -110 for Game
1.1u Justin Gaethje +261
0.15u Justin Gaethje in Round 3 by KO/TKO or DQ +2000
0.15u Justin Gaethje in Round 4 by KO/TKO or DQ +2800
0.15u Justin Gaethje in Round 5 by KO/TKO or DQ +3300
0.15u Khabib Nurmagomedov by Decision +275Comment -
Only play for me is Tai Tuivasa -110. Enjoy the fightsComment -
GL DDD and 209Comment -
UFC 254: Nurmagomedov vs. Gaethje Picks:
Alexander Yakovlev Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Miranda Maverick Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Da Un Jung Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Alex Oliveira Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Nathaniel Wood Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Stefan Struve Round 2 Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Magomed Ankalaev Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Lauren Murphy Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Phil Hawes Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Alexander Volkov Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Robert Whittaker Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Khabib Nurmagomedov Round 3 TKO (Punches)Comment -
UFC 254: Nurmagomedov vs. Gaethje
Fight Pass Early Prelims:
Fight #1: Yakovlev vs. Alvarez
Yakovlev (+144) 1.5u
Yakovlev+Alvarez Goes Distance (+155) 0.25u
Yakovlev Decision (+380) 0.25u
Hedge(s):
Alvarez Decision (+400) 0.25u
Alvarez Round 1 Submission (+500) 0.25u
Fight #2: Maverick (DEBUT) vs. Jojua
Parlays
Hedge:
Jojua Submission (+946) 0.15u
Jojua Round 1 Submission (+2600) 0.1u
ESPN+ Prelims:
Fight #3: Jung vs. Alvey
Jung+Alvey Over 1.5 (-142) 1.05u to win 0.74u
Jung Decision (+380) 0.25u
Jung Round 2 KO/TKO (+500) 0.15u
Jung Round 3 KO/TKO (+1600) 0.1u
Fight #4: A. Oliveira vs. Rakhmonov (DEBUT)
A. Oliveira KO/TKO (+500) 0.1u
Fight #5: Wood vs. Kenney
Wood (+140) 0.5u
Wood Submission (+790) 0.1u
Fight #6: Struve vs. Tuivasa
Struve ITD (+192) 0.65u
Main Card:
Fight #7: Ankalaev vs. Cutelaba
Ankalaev+Cutelaba Over 1.5 (-110) 0.88u to win 0.8u
Ankalaev Round 3/Decision (+205) 0.25u
Ankalaev Round 3 (+800) 0.1u
Hedge:
Cutelaba Round 1 (+600) 0.25u
Fight #8: Murphy vs. Shakirova (DEBUT)
No Bet
Fight #9: Hawes (DEBUT) vs. Malkoun (DEBUT)
No Bet
Fight #10: Volkov vs. Harris
Parlays
Fight #11: Whittaker vs. Cannonier
Whittaker (+114) 1u
Fight #12: K. Nurmagomedov (C) vs. Gaethje (IC)
K. Nurmagomedov (-198) 1.69u to win 0.85u
K. Nurmagomedov KO/TKO/Decision (+105) 0.5u
K. Nurmagomedov Round 3 (+800) 0.15u
Hedge:
Gaethje Round 1 (+1000) 0.25u
Straight Parlays:
Maverick/Ankalaev (-138) 2.49u to win 1.8u
Maverick/Volkov (-107) 0.53u to win 0.5u
Maverick/A. Oliveira (+122) 0.5u
Full Card Props:
Gaethje Performance Bonus (+300) 0.25uComment -
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