UFC on ESPN+ 38: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie (October 17, 2020)

**frankieunits2685** · 10-11-20, 11:51 AM

Lets go zombie!

**agendaman** · 10-12-20, 07:37 AM

wow 7 hi priced favorites

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-12-20, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by agendaman

wow 7 hi priced favorites

Juice city for sure.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-12-20, 07:20 PM

Huge fan of Ciryl Gane. Think he will be UFC Heavyweight Champion one day.

**Unwritten Law** · 10-12-20, 11:02 PM

The Korean Zombie!

**JIBBBY** · 10-13-20, 01:05 AM

Ortega all day long at +160 odds.. Zombie no push over but at those odds you gotta try it!!!

**PaperTrail07** · 10-13-20, 11:15 AM

For sure---almost a (2) year layoff...a lot of it is how prepared he is......not saying I'm betting him lol...but I get it.

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Ortega all day long at +160 odds.. Zombie no push over but at those odds you gotta try it!!!

**frankieunits2685** · 10-13-20, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Ortega all day long at +160 odds.. Zombie no push over but at those odds you gotta try it!!!

GL Jibby, but i'll most likely be going against you in this one.

**hankcream** · 10-13-20, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Huge fan of Ciryl Gane. Think he will be UFC Heavyweight Champion one day.

Hugo, how's his ground game & defense? I saw his fight with Tanner Boser and if I remember correctly it was all striking and Gane pretty much dominated. I don't like the juice for this fight for anything other than a sub win.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-13-20, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by hankcream

Hugo, how's his ground game & defense? I saw his fight with Tanner Boser and if I remember correctly it was all striking and Gane pretty much dominated. I don't like the juice for this fight for anything other than a sub win.

His ground game is pretty underrated. I have a play on Gane Sub at (+550). He can win this fight anywhere. I don't typically play (-600) MLs so I'll need to get a bit creative about how I play this fight.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-13-20, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

For sure---almost a (2) year layoff...a lot of it is how prepared he is......not saying I'm betting him lol...but I get it.

I don't really factor layoffs into my capping. I'm assuming we are getting the same Ortega we've seen before until proven otherwise.

**Sanity Check** · 10-13-20, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I'm assuming we are getting the same Ortega we've seen before until proven otherwise.

Ortega said in interviews, he's tried to change everything. Fired all his old coaches except for Rener Gracie and tried to improve in all areas.

The polar inverse opposite of Karolina who changed everything except her coaches.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-13-20, 07:37 PM

Think Rener won't be in his corner for this one. Out with COVID I heard.

**hankcream** · 10-13-20, 11:37 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

His ground game is pretty underrated. I have a play on Gane Sub at (+550). He can win this fight anywhere. I don't typically play (-600) MLs so I'll need to get a bit creative about how I play this fight.

Appreciate the input

. How do you always get the best lines? The best I ca find by sub is +450

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-14-20, 12:09 AM

Originally posted by hankcream

Appreciate the input

. How do you always get the best lines? The best I ca find by sub is +450

Have a lot of different books and am often logged in and looking at prices.

**hankcream** · 10-14-20, 09:35 AM

Really like Jonathan Martinez at + $, but have to wait for the weigh in, his last fight against Frankie Saenz he missed weight by 5#s

**PaperTrail07** · 10-14-20, 12:15 PM

I don't either unless the fighter is older....paycheck hunting....

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I don't really factor layoffs into my capping. I'm assuming we are getting the same Ortega we've seen before until proven otherwise.

**frankieunits2685** · 10-14-20, 03:05 PM

BREAKING:

Due to contract issues, Ante Delija has been removed from his fight against Ciryl Gane and the bout has been cancelled. Krause/Silva will not be moved up to the main card.

**PaperTrail07** · 10-14-20, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by frankieunits2685

BREAKING:

Due to contract issues, Ante Delija has been removed from his fight against Ciryl Gane and the bout has been cancelled. Krause/Silva will not be moved up to the main card.

**Unwritten Law** · 10-14-20, 04:03 PM

It's been confirmed that Rener won't be in Ortega's corner to console him after The Korean Zombie rips him apart!!

Ortega's coach tests positive, out for Jung fight

https://www.espn.com/mma/story/_/id/30081642/rener-gracie-tests-positive-corner-brian-ortega-chan-sung-jung-fight

Rener Gracie, who is Brian Ortega's most-tenured coach, tested positive for the coronavirus and will not be in Ortega's corner for his fight against Chan Sung Jung.

**hankcream** · 10-14-20, 05:36 PM

Since the Gane fight has been cancelled, long shot play:
1 unit Mark Striegl by submission + 750

**spurginobili** · 10-15-20, 11:42 PM

This is on UFC's Youtube channel.

**LBfightlife** · 10-16-20, 03:51 PM

Can't go against Zombie here. He's improved after military layoff, matured and making a title run. The Yair KO was a fluke imo... Initially thought of fading Ortega due to Sampson-esk haircut before weigh in. Although maybe he's going full savage mode mentally.

Ortega only likely path to victory is by submission. I have underestimated his striking before but he's just not on the level of TKZ. I believe TKZ will finish him.

Will probably play TKZ in 1 or 2 parlays, ITD and round betting in 2-3-4 . Possible small hedge w/ Ortega by submission.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-16-20, 05:41 PM

I think Ortega KO is a better value hedge than Ortega Submission. Ortega is an underrated puncher and I think this fight stays standing.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-16-20, 05:41 PM

Almeida vs. Martinez is apparently at 145 not 135. Worth noting.

**UncleChael** · 10-16-20, 06:03 PM

Who we on today Hugo's? I ain't fading you. The man's stays HOT!

**Sanity Check** · 10-16-20, 06:30 PM

Classic combat blunders of history 101

--Underestimating the russian winter

--Invading iraq without an exit strategy

--Invading and occupying afghanistan making identical mistakes to russia when they tried it

...

Add to list:

--Slapping Korean Zombie's homey, when KZ goes to the bathroom ????????

???????

**LBfightlife** · 10-16-20, 06:39 PM

Interesting Hugo. So you think TKZ can keep Tcity off his neck or his ground game will cancel out Tcity submission threat?

Do you see chances this fight going the distance ?

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-16-20, 07:29 PM

Originally posted by UncleChael

Who we on today Hugo's? I ain't fading you. The man's stays HOT!

One bet I've got is Claudio Silva ML.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-16-20, 07:33 PM

Originally posted by LBfightlife

Interesting Hugo. So you think TKZ can keep Tcity off his neck or his ground game will cancel out Tcity submission threat?

Do you see chances this fight going the distance ?

I think the fight stays standing and there is more value on Ortega KO/TKO (+950) than there is on Ortega Submission (+350) at current prices.

These prices imply a 9.5% chance of Ortega KO/TKO and a 22.2% of Ortega Submission. I think the odds of Ortega KO happening should be around 15% and Ortega submission happening should be around 20% so I think there is value on the Ortega KO prop but no value on the Ortega Submission prop.

I think the fight is unlikely to go the distance.

**209 Life** · 10-17-20, 03:31 AM

Chookagian has 8 inch height advantage over Andrade

**Sanity Check** · 10-17-20, 05:07 AM

4 pm ET is an early start time for UFC prelims.

Fight Island FTW~

**Demonata** · 10-17-20, 08:21 AM

Finally have time for another ufc event

**PaperTrail07** · 10-17-20, 08:23 AM

same +125 dont understand that line at all.......also the Robertson over....1.5....ladies fight lol...

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

One bet I've got is Claudio Silva ML.