UFC on ESPN+ 37: Moraes vs. Sandhagen (October 10, 2020)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 8:00 pm ET
Marlon Moraes vs. Cory Sandhagen
Edson Barboza vs. Makwan Amirkhani
Ben Rothwell vs. Marcin Tybura
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Markus Perez
Tom Aspinall vs. Alan Baudot
Thomas Almeida vs.

ESPN+ 5:00 pm ET
Youssef Zalal vs. llia Topuria
Tom Breese vs. KB Bhulla
Chris Daukaus vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
Joaquin Buckley vs. Impa Kasanganay
Ali Alqaisi vs. Tony Kelley
Giga Chikadze vs. Omar Morales
Tracy Cortez vs. Stephanie Egger
Bruno Silva vs. Tagir Ulanbekov

[richie360]

Surprised to see Moraes as an underdog, I’ve already placed 1 unit on him

[magpie878]

I don't know what to think. Thought he looked very good when I first started watching UFC (when NJ got sports betting).

Looked great early against Cejudo with the kicks, then totally flamed out, which I liked.

Then, I honestly thought Aldo beat him and thought Moraes looked pretty crappy.

Which guy should I expect to see... dunno.


I'm glad to see Aspinall again, though I never heard of his opponent.

[hankcream]

Moraes kicks and hits like a freaking mule, but he's huge for 135 and I think he has a hard time making weight. Waiting to see what he looks like at the weigh in and maybe pull the trigger on Moraes in 1st round at +?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Moraes kicks and hits like a freaking mule, but he's huge for 135 and I think he has a hard time making weight. Waiting to see what he looks like at the weigh in and maybe pull the trigger on Moraes in 1st round at +?

He's very dangerous early but often slows in the later round. Moraes R1 finish is probably his best path to victory.

[unlearn]

Aspinall rd1+125
Nascimento sub+150

Both at BOL

[Unkclan]

Love the value on Moraes. He is very dangerous in the first couple rounds and I think he will get him out of there

[magpie878]

Is the main event a 3 or 5 rounder?

I had two free bets on PointsBet, so I put those early on Moraes ML +115. I don't usually put in early bets, but worth the shot. And I will be in the Poconos this weekend, and can't use my NJ apps.

Might try ITD or round one, but those are my starting points so far.

[PaperTrail07]

Moraes as tough as the come and very fast...lacks length here vs sandy-but agree +$ is hard to pass up on

Surprised to see Moraes as an underdog, I’ve already placed 1 unit on him

[aussiebuckeye]

Rothwell ends this quickly

[PaperTrail07]

Tybura does not do so well when he is the nail , agree.....if he cant win the grapple and walk forward, it will be a long night --His wins USUALLY revolve around him being the bigger/more aggressive guy in the cage---good eye fellow buckeye

Rothwell ends this quickly

[PaperTrail07]

Rothwell
Impa
Seem to have value

Morales might be a play too, digging in on that.....not as quick but heavy forward pressure and heavy hands.....

[Hugo de Naranja]

Is the main event a 3 or 5 rounder?

I had two free bets on PointsBet, so I put those early on Moraes ML +115. I don't usually put in early bets, but worth the shot. And I will be in the Poconos this weekend, and can't use my NJ apps.

Might try ITD or round one, but those are my starting points so far.

Five rounder. Main events and title fights are always 5 rounders (with a few rare exceptions)

[frankieunits2685]

Barboza a decent sized favorite

[hankcream]

I hate laying this much chalk but I think BetOnline has this line on sale by $60
5 units Rodrigo Nascimento -265

[hankcream]

I don't know what to think. Thought he looked very good when I first started watching UFC (when NJ got sports betting).

Looked great early against Cejudo with the kicks, then totally flamed out, which I liked.

Then, I honestly thought Aldo beat him and thought Moraes looked pretty crappy.

Which guy should I expect to see... dunno.


I'm glad to see Aspinall again, though I never heard of his opponent.

The guy Aspinall's fighting, Baudot is showing a victory by DQ in his last fight with Todd Stoute. What actually happened is Stoute submitted Baudot with a choke but Stoute tested positive for pot and was DQ'd. Baudot is a light heavyweight on short notice fighting @ heavyweight, it should be an easy victory for Aspinall but at close to -500 not much value.

[magpie878]

The guy Aspinall's fighting, Baudot is showing a victory by DQ in his last fight with Todd Stoute. What actually happened is Stoute submitted Baudot with a choke but Stoute tested positive for pot and was DQ'd. Baudot is a light heavyweight on short notice fighting @ heavyweight, it should be an easy victory for Aspinall but at close to -500 not much value.

Thank you. I eventually did read some of that on a site, and the guy trains with Ngannou and someone else I think? But hard to find value here, unless you think a sub might happen.

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups.. MMAMANIA




135 lbs.: Ali AlQaisi vs. Tony Kelley

Ali AlQaisi (8-4) brought a five-fight win streak into his Octagon debut, which pitted him against former Titan FC champ Irwin Rivera. Though he kept it close, “The Royal Fighter” ultimately ended up on the wrong end of a split decision for his first loss since 2017.
He gives up three inches of height and two inches of reach to “Primetime.”
Tony Kelley (6-2) sat out for nearly three years following a narrow split decision loss to Kevin Aguilar in a 2016 bid for the Legacy FC Featherweight title, returning in May of last year with a first-round guillotine choke. He would miss another 15 months before duking out with Kai Kamaka III in UFC 252’s Fight of the Night. He’s submitted three pro foes and knocked out two others.
While the jury’s out on whether Kelley is actually best served dropping in weight, he certainly lucked into a favorable matchup in his Bantamweight debut. His length, movement, high output, and large striking arsenal all look like solid counters to AlQaisi’s limited offense. Plus, while he gave up five takedowns to Kamaka, the Hawaiian never managed to keep him down for long.
So long as Kelley’s gas tank holds up, he’s got the tools to outclass AlQaisi almost anywhere the fight goes. He outworks “Royal Fighter” on the feet for a wide decision win.
Prediction: Kelley via unanimous decision
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145 lbs.: Giga Chikadze vs. Omar Morales

Though his “Contender Series” bid proved unsuccessful, Giga Chikadze (10-2) has yet to taste defeat in the Octagon, amassing a perfect (3-0) record over the course of a year. The former Glory standout most recently took a unanimous decision over Irwin Rivera in May, but was forced to withdraw from a planned August bout against Alex Caceres.
He’s scored six professional mixed martial arts (MMA) wins by form of knockout, though none in the Octagon.
Two-to-one odds didn’t stop Omar Morales (10-0) from smashing Harvey Park on “Contender Series” and earning a contract in the process. He’s made the most of the opportunity with entertaining Octagon victories over Dong Hyun Ma and Gabriel Benitez.
This will be his Featherweight debut.
I’m more torn on this than I thought I’d be. On one hand, Morales is primarily a striker, and there’s not many Featherweights I’d pick to beat Chikadze in a pure standup battle. On the other, “Venezuelan Fighter” is a massive step up in competition; Brandon Davis had lost four of six coming in, Jamall Emmers didn’t wake up until halfway through the second round, and Rivera is a natural Bantamweight whom Chikadze dwarfed. This will be Chikadze’s first time facing a legitimate contender in MMA, and the fact that Morales scored a takedown in his Octagon debut suggests that he might have enough of a ground game to throw off the Georgian’s offense.
At the end of the day, though, I can’t pick against Chikadze when his opponent figures to give him the exact sort of fight he wants. Chikadze wins a long-range kicking battle to make it four straight in UFC.
Prediction: Chikadze via unanimous decision
Related
COVID-19 Bounces Perez From Almeida Fight

135 lbs.: Tracy Cortez vs. Stephanie Egger

Tracy Cortez (7-1) battled her way to a decision win over Mariya Agapova to secure a contract on “Contender Series,” setting up a UFC debut against Duda Santana. When that fell through, she instead took on Vanessa Melo, whom she defeated for her seventh consecutive victory.
She is the shorter woman by two inches.
A standout judoka who once defeated Ronda Rousey on the mats, Stephanie Egger (5-1) has won three straight since a 2016 split decision loss to Alexa Conners in her Invicta debut. The run notably includes a decision over Japanese fan-favorite “KING” Reina Miura, whom she defeated by decision under the Rizin banner.
She steps in for Bea Malecki on little more than one week’s notice.
Egger has said that she doesn’t want to be compared to Ronda Rousey, but she probably should have developed some actual standup to differentiate herself from the “Rowdy” one. Her striking is painfully underdeveloped to the point that Cortez, who relies more on aggression than any particular technical prowess, should have little issue bullying and battering her across the cage. To make matters worse for the Swiss newcomer, Cortez is a stout wrestler in her own right, limiting her chances of getting the favorable clinch she needs.
Cortez only loses this fight if she gets profoundly sloppy closing the distance and hands Egger a body lock on a silver platter. In almost every other scenario, she beats Egger up for a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Cortez via unanimous decision
Related
Pic! ‘Moraes Vs. Sandhagen’ Fight Poster Gets The Sunset Treatment

125 lbs.: Bruno Silva vs. Tagir Ulanbekov

Four years after falling to Dileno Lopes on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Brazil 4,” Bruno Silva (10-5-2) stepped up in weight to face Khalid Taha at UFC 243, ultimately succumbing to the German’s arm-triangle choke in the third round. He would not fight again until last March, when he dropped a competitive decision to late replacement David Dvorak in Brasilia.
He stands three inches shorter than Tagir Ulanbekov (12-1) at 5’4.”
Ulanbekov enjoyed a dominant run on the Russian circuit, choking out Vartan Asatryan for the FNG Flyweight belt before controversially losing it to Zhalgas Zumagulov in his first defense. He then took his talents to GFC, becoming its Flyweight champion as well during his three-fight stint.
He was slated to debut in July, but withdrew after the death of trainer Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov.
You’ve got to feel for Silva, whose Octagon tenure has pitted him against a Bantamweight powerhouse, an up-and-coming dark horse, and now one of the best Flyweight prospects in the game. Ulanbekov is far, far too skilled a wrestler and grappler for Silva’s jiu-jitsu to play a factor, and while he’s not a particularly devastating striker, his length and sharp jab will neutralize Silva’s dangerous stand up.
Last year, one of Ulanbekov’s training partners, Abubakar Nurmagomedov, got tapped while on top. Silva had better pray that fortune smiles on him in similar fashion, because otherwise, Ulanbekov’s going to potshot and grind him into oblivion.
Prediction: Ulanbekov via unanimous decision




185 lbs.: Tom Breese vs. K.B. Bhullar

Once among UFC’s top prospects, Tom Breese (11-2) saw four different match ups fall through after his knockout of Daniel Kelly, keeping him out of action for all of 2019. His February return proved disastrous, as Brendan Allen pounded him out in Norfolk for the former’s first stoppage defeat.
He came into UFC with seven submission wins and has added two knockouts to his previous total of one.
Three consecutive first-round wins earned K.B. Bhullar (8-0) a crack at the Unified MMA Middleweight title, which he claimed with a decision over UFC veteran Matt Dwyer. He was slated to face Bruno Oliveira on “Contender Series,” but stepped in when Breese’s original opponent (on Oct. 3, 2020), Roman Kopylov, withdrew.
He’s the taller man by one inch.
While I was sadly unable to find a non-paywalled video of Bhullar’s war with Dwyer, I did scrounge up enough footage to determine that he’s a very capable and well-rounded prospect. He’s also a bit easier to hit than he should be, however, and that’s bad news against boxing as sharp as Breese’s. The Brit looks at least his equal in the wrestling and jiu-jitsu, meaning Bhullar’s in for a striking battle whether he wants one or not.
Bhullar is honestly less of a concern for Breese than the latter’s own mental state. That’s because he’s had some rough patches these past few years and took a serious beating from Allen his last time out. Still, assuming “The Octopus” is anywhere near his best, he should control the standup and potentially score a finish if his right hand connects.
Prediction: Breese via first-round technical knockout
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265 lbs.: Chris Daukaus vs. Rodrigo Nascimento

Chris Daukaus (9-3) rebounded from an unsuccessful bit at Azunna Anyanwu’s CFFC title with a knockout of Danny Holmes, his fifth stoppage win in six fights. Then, 364 days later, he smashed Parker Porter at UFC 252 for knockout victory No. 7.
He gives up four inches of reach to “Ze Colmeia.”
Fighting for the first time since 2017, Rodrigo Nascimento (8-0) choked out Michal Martinek on “Contender Series” to earn a spot in the Octagon. Once there, he faced fellow series veteran Don’Tale Mayes, choking him out in the Brazilian’s second trip to the second round.
His finishes are split 6-2 between submissions and knockouts.
I’m not entirely clear on why Nascimento is a nearly three-to-one favorite at the time of writing. He looked solid against a very limited slugger in Mayes, sure, but Daukaus has an ostensible striking edge and sufficiently stout wrestling to avoid “Kong’s” fate.
So long as he can keep it standing, this is Daukaus’ fight to lose.
I’ll admit that I underestimated the Brazilian against Mayes and that, seeing as he’s just 27 and training out of American Top Team, he could very well have made some huge strides. That said, I favor the power and boxing chops of Daukaus to score the upset.
Prediction: Daukaus via first-round technical knockout
Related
Pic! ‘Moraes Vs. Sandhagen’ Fight Poster Gets The Sunset Treatment

185 lbs.: Joaquin Buckley vs. Impa Kasanganay

Joaquin Buckley (10-3) followed his 3-2 Bellator run with two knockout wins under the LFA banner, then stepped up to face Kevin Holland on just an eight-day turnaround. Fortune did not favor the bold, as “Trail Blazer” caught him with a right cross in the third round for “New Mansa’s” second knockout defeat.
He has knocked out seven opponents overall.
Out of action for nearly one year after upsetting Kailan Hill on “Contender Series,” Impa Kasanganay (8-0) made it 2-0 on the show with a unanimous decision over Anthony Adams. Eighteen days later, “Tshilobo” out-slugged Maki Pitolo in Las Vegas, Nevada, to secure his first Octagon victory.
He replaces Abu Azaitar on around two weeks’ notice.
“New Mansa” had a fairly forgiving match up in Azaitar, who hadn’t fought in two years and who is largely subpar outside of some decent wrestling. No such luck against Kasanganay, who can match Buckley’s athleticism and bring a technically superior arsenal to bear. “Tshilobo” also figures to have a size advantage, as Buckley’s best work has come at 170 pounds.
A one-punch knockout from Buckley certainly isn’t out of the question, but Kasanganay’s sharp and well-rounded enough to both steer clear of Buckley’s haymakers and capitalize on the many openings he leaves in his bursts of offense. Effective striking and the occasional takedown push Kasanganay’s Octagon record to 2-0.
Prediction: Kasanganay via unanimous decision

[LeMartin]

Check out my Main Card Breakdown video for this Saturdays fight

my top 3 picks for Saturday: Yousseff Zalal -183, Marcin Tybura +124, Cory Sandhagen -138

what do you guys think?

[Choi The Gamer]

Aspinall rd1+125
Nascimento sub+150

Both at BOL

I have Aspinal rd1 at +120. Good luck unlearn!

[hankcream]

If this card was in Vegas I'd probably throw a .5 unit on Bruno Silva at +360 but I don't trust the Abu Dhabi judges especially when it's one of Khabib's boys in the fight.

[PaperTrail07]

real talk...

If this card was in Vegas I'd probably throw a .5 unit on Bruno Silva at +360 but I don't trust the Abu Dhabi judges especially when it's one of Khabib's boys in the fight.

[PaperTrail07]

Be very impressed if this cashes-Moraes also worth the + $ imo...

Check out my Main Card Breakdown video for this Saturdays fight

my top 3 picks for Saturday: Yousseff Zalal -183, Marcin Tybura +124, Cory Sandhagen -138

what do you guys think?

[PaperTrail07]

Moraes by split or something lol...fight could be very very close and never wanna have juice going to the scorecards....

[vegasbb]

Tracy Cortez is very cute with a great background story. She's 7-1. Normally fights at 125 lbs. This fight is at 135. Her scheduled opponent backed out 10 days ago. In the fights I watched, she's been the stronger fighter and likes to stay close. She's manhandled her way to 5 decisions out of her wins. She hasn't fought in a year. Media day she talked about having health problems earlier this year, and training in her backyard. She trained for a different style fight. She expected a striker.
Stephanie Egger is 5-1 with 4 wins in the first round. 2 by Sub. 2 by TKO She's been fighting at 135-145 lbs. Last fought in Sept. and took this fight on short notice. She will be the bigger fighter.
I watched several of their fights. I don't think Cortez will be able manhandle Egger. Cortez leaves her head and arms open, her only loss was by guillotine. She's luckily gotten out of trouble against smaller girls doing this. I think Egger wins this fight. Possibly takes her neck or an arm.
I'm fairly new to MMA betting. Egger is raw and Cortez is a better technical fighter. Current line Cortez is -200 Egger +175 Any thoughts?

[UncleChael]

Looking forward to the main event.

[Sanity Check]

Mr. Finland is known for having 800+ amateur wrestling matches.

Anyone think he'll repeat Kevin Lee and Khabib's success taking it to the mat?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Kelley and Sandhagen for me this card. Nothing too big.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 38: Sandhagen vs. Moraes Picks:
Tagir Ulanbekov Round 3 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Tracy Cortez Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Omar Morales Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Tony Kelley Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Impa Kasanganay Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Rodrigo Nascimento Round 2 Submission (Kimura)
Tom Breese Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Ilia Topuria Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Tom Aspinall Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Markus Perez Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Ben Rothwell Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Edson Barboza Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Cory Sandhagen Round 2 TKO (Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 37: Sandhagen vs. Moraes

ESPN+ Prelims:

Fight #1: Ulanbekov vs. B. Silva
Ulanbekov Submission (+260) 0.25u
Ulanbekov Round 2 (+750) 0.05u
Ulanbekov Round 3 (+1200) 0.05u

Fight #2: Cortez vs. Egger (DEBUT)
Egger (+196) 0.5u

Fight #3: Morales vs. Chikadze
Morales Submission (+750) 0.1u

Fight #4: Kelley vs. Al Qaisi
Kelley (-170) 1.7u to win 1u

Fight #5: Kasanganay vs. Buckley
No Bet

Fight #6: Nascimento vs. C. Daukaus
No Bet

Fight #7: Breese vs. Bhullar (DEBUT)
Breese Round 1 (+430) 0.25u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Topuria (DEBUT) vs. Zalal
Topuria Round 1 Submission (+700) 0.15u

Fight #9: Aspinall vs. Baudot (DEBUT)
Aspinall Round 1 KO/TKO (+125) 0.4u
Aspinall Submission (+1100) 0.1u

Fight #10: M. Perez vs. Du Plessis (DEBUT)
No Bet

Fight #11: Rothwell vs. Tybura
Rothwell Scorecards = No Action (-175) 0.13u to win 0.07u

Fight #12: Barboza vs. Amirkhani
No Bet

Fight #13: Sandhagen vs. M. Moraes
Sandhagen (-145) 1.45u to win 1u
Sandhagen KO/TKO (+340) 0.5u

Hedge:
M. Moraes Round 1 (+550) 0.15u

[Sanity Check]

UFC Fight Island 5: Who is bantamweight Stephanie Egger?


Prior to her mixed martial arts career, Egger excelled in judo, winning a multitude of national and international gold medals. Egger also went 1-1 in her judo career against former judoka and women’s MMA pioneer Ronda Rousey.





...


Interesting.

[wlulaxer]

UFC on ESPN+ 37: Sandhagen vs. Moraes

ESPN+ Prelims:

Fight #1: Ulanbekov vs. B. Silva
Ulanbekov Submission (+260) 0.25u
Ulanbekov Round 2 (+750) 0.05u
Ulanbekov Round 3 (+1200) 0.05u

Fight #2: Cortez vs. Egger (DEBUT)
Egger (+196) 0.5u

Fight #3: Morales vs. Chikadze
Morales Submission (+750) 0.1u

Fight #4: Kelley vs. Al Qaisi
Kelley (-170) 1.7u to win 1u

Fight #5: Kasanganay vs. Buckley
No Bet

Fight #6: Nascimento vs. C. Daukaus
No Bet

Fight #7: Breese vs. Bhullar (DEBUT)
Breese Round 1 (+430) 0.25u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Topuria (DEBUT) vs. Zalal
Topuria Round 1 Submission (+700) 0.15u

Fight #9: Aspinall vs. Baudot (DEBUT)
Aspinall Round 1 KO/TKO (+125) 0.4u
Aspinall Submission (+1100) 0.1u

Fight #10: M. Perez vs. Du Plessis (DEBUT)
No Bet

Fight #11: Rothwell vs. Tybura
Rothwell Scorecards = No Action (-175) 0.13u to win 0.07u

Fight #12: Barboza vs. Amirkhani
No Bet

Fight #13: Sandhagen vs. M. Moraes
Sandhagen (-145) 1.45u to win 1u
Sandhagen KO/TKO (+340) 0.5u

Hedge:
M. Moraes Round 1 (+550) 0.15u

Thanks as always Hugo, enjoy the fights. Good luck to you

[UncleChael]

Mr. Finland is known for having 800+ amateur wrestling matches.

Anyone think he'll repeat Kevin Lee and Khabib's success taking it to the mat?

I think you just answered your own question. Thanks for insight brother.
I shouldn't even have to mention, TY for your picks Hugo's!

[frankieunits2685]

UFC on ESPN+ 37: Sandhagen vs. Moraes

ESPN+ Prelims:

Fight #1: Ulanbekov vs. B. Silva
Ulanbekov Submission (+260) 0.25u
Ulanbekov Round 2 (+750) 0.05u
Ulanbekov Round 3 (+1200) 0.05u

Fight #2: Cortez vs. Egger (DEBUT)
Egger (+196) 0.5u

Fight #3: Morales vs. Chikadze
Morales Submission (+750) 0.1u

Fight #4: Kelley vs. Al Qaisi
Kelley (-170) 1.7u to win 1u

Fight #5: Kasanganay vs. Buckley
No Bet

Fight #6: Nascimento vs. C. Daukaus
No Bet

Fight #7: Breese vs. Bhullar (DEBUT)
Breese Round 1 (+430) 0.25u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Topuria (DEBUT) vs. Zalal
Topuria Round 1 Submission (+700) 0.15u

Fight #9: Aspinall vs. Baudot (DEBUT)
Aspinall Round 1 KO/TKO (+125) 0.4u
Aspinall Submission (+1100) 0.1u

Fight #10: M. Perez vs. Du Plessis (DEBUT)
No Bet

Fight #11: Rothwell vs. Tybura
Rothwell Scorecards = No Action (-175) 0.13u to win 0.07u

Fight #12: Barboza vs. Amirkhani
No Bet

Fight #13: Sandhagen vs. M. Moraes
Sandhagen (-145) 1.45u to win 1u
Sandhagen KO/TKO (+340) 0.5u

Hedge:
M. Moraes Round 1 (+550) 0.15u

great line on kelley

[Sanity Check]

I think you just answered your own question. Thanks for insight brother.
I shouldn't even have to mention, TY for your picks Hugo's!

Edson Barboza moved to american top team to improve his wrestling after Kevin Lee and Khabib exposed that hole in his game. His wrestling is much improved. Although at 145 he might only have 1 or 2 good wrestling/grappling rounds in him, before he fades. Barboza faded noticeably in round 3 vs Paul Felder at 155. I think he also faded in round 3 vs Dan Ige. His gas tank could be suspect.

Makwan Amirkhani trained his wrestling more before moving to SBG Ireland with John Kavanagh. Makwan was doing amateur boxing matches trying to become more of a standup fighter. His gameplan for Barboza could be to stand and bang like he did vs Shane Burgos.

I don't see a clear cut result here. I think if Amirkhani chooses to wrestle from the starting bell, Barboza will gas out and possibly be finished. The question is whether Mr Finland's gameplan is to wrestle heavy or work his stand up.