UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa (September 26, 2020)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-per-view 10:00 pm ET
Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa (for middleweight title )
Dominick Reyes vs. Jan Blachowicz (for vacant light heavyweight title)
Kai Kara-France vs. Brandon Royval
Marion Reneau vs. Ketlen Vieira
Hakeem Dawodu vs. Zubaira Tukhugov

ESPN 8:00 pm ET
Alex da Silva vs Brad Riddell
Jake Matthews vs Diego Sanchez
Nate Landwehr vs Shane Young
Aleksa Camur vs William Knight

UFC Fight Pass 6:30 pm ET
Juan Espino vs Jeff Hughes
Heili Alateng vs Casey Kenney

[Unwritten Law]

Paulo "The Eraser" Costa is my strong lean.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Paulo "The Eraser" Costa is my strong lean.

Tell me more.

[frankieunits2685]

Izzy all day.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

This could be another tight one going into the 5th round. Adesanya/Gastelum was 2-2 going into the 5th round where Israel had a big 5th round. Also 2 of the 3 judges had Adesanya/Romero 2-2 going into the 5th. A guy as active as Costa could easily win a decision.

[Sanity Check]

Tempted to #BLM fade Adesanya.

[magpie878]

Definitely leaning Adesanya. Costa hasn't fought anyone near the level of Israel.

Sure, he could win, but I don't think he does. It's going to take a near-perfect fight for Costa. I thought Romero looked mostly awful when he fought Costa and he still popped him a good amount of times, losing a decision. Adesanya is eons faster, probably smarter at this point, and all-around better than Romero was and Costa is going to have his hands full.

How's he going to fare if the fight drags on? Both he and Romero slowed down in the third. Can he keep the pressure coming beyond round 2 or just start going for big swings or kicks every once in awhile?

[frankieunits2685]

This is the card! Should be a lot of fireworks on this one.

[frankieunits2685]

Jake Matthews up to -700 early on some books.

[WolfTicketDealer]

Think unless Costa gets Adesanya out of there early it'll be easy work for Izzy.

[PaperTrail07]

Not seeing much for $$$----just me ?

[magpie878]

No odds on Kenney?


I don't know anything about Camur, but I don't like Knight very much, even off his latest DWCS win.

[PaperTrail07]

Camur seems like Easy Cheese There.....

No odds on Kenney?


I don't know anything about Camur, but I don't like Knight very much, even off his latest DWCS win.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Looking forward to this event.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Tempted to #BLM fade Adesanya.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">You can have beef and still be respectful to eachother.<br>It doesnt have to be like Khabib vs Conor all the time <a href="https://t.co/22AgtVWfPJ">https://t.co/22AgtVWfPJ</a></p>&mdash; Anto| ᵂᵒᵒᵈˡᵉʸ ˢᵘᵖᵖᵒʳᵗᵉʳ�� (@ImAntoMMA) <a href="https://twitter.com/ImAntoMMA/status/1308048198024548352?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >September 21, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Sanity Check]

#BLM fade

Leslie Smith ×
Angela Hill ✓
Tyron Woodley ✓
Patriots vs Seahawks -4 ✓
Israel Adesanya pending

[Hugo de Naranja]

Not seeing much for $$$----just me ?

Same boat, only like a few bets for this one so far.

[Hugo de Naranja]

No odds on Kenney?


I don't know anything about Camur, but I don't like Knight very much, even off his latest DWCS win.

Kenney's fight got moved to the October 3rd card.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[hankcream]

Pretty lame prelims for a pay per view. I wouldn't think Sanchez, Ibragimov, or da Silva will get a look from Belator once their done in the UFC.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Leaning Costa as well...he will either get the finish or get clipped coming forward...

[PaperTrail07]

Yeah-I want +175 for Costa then I'm game as well.....I wish this was in Vegas for the smaller cage---normal cage on the island

Leaning Costa as well...he will either get the finish or get clipped coming forward...

[PaperTrail07]

They don't need to sell top top fights----they heavy undercard weaker main events to pull in fans of those fighters ect....

Pretty lame prelims for a pay per view. I wouldn't think Sanchez, Ibragimov, or da Silva will get a look from Belator once their done in the UFC.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Yeah-I want +175 for Costa then I'm game as well.....I wish this was in Vegas for the smaller cage---normal cage on the island

It should be an interesting clash of styles for sure. I hope Costa wins but think he has a decent shot as well...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Have the people backing Costa seen this fight with Marcio Alexandre Jr? If so, what were your thoughts?

[Hugo de Naranja]

It's funny to me that so many people called robbery for the Vera/Yadong fight when an almost identical percentage of media members scored Costa/Romero for Romero. There was very little discussion both at the time and in the months after regarding whether Costa was the rightful winner. Both extremely close FOTN contests with opposite narratives. "Chito got robbed" and "Costa clearly won".

http://www.mmadecisions.com/decision/10340/Paulo-Costa-vs-Yoel-Romero

[Sanity Check]

Have the people backing Costa seen this fight with Marcio Alexandre Jr? If so, what were your thoughts?

https://www.instagram.com/p/CFf-0W4DFZO/

[magpie878]

I'm far from a UFC expert, so someone please help me here... I think I've only seen two of Costa's fights, one being Romero and the other I forget.

I'm reading how he's got a great chin, can take lots of punishment. I also read how quickly he's won many fights. So other than a (again, to me) crappy showing from Romero popping Costa a few times, who are the guys that have supposedly inflicted all this punishment and tested his chin so much?

If you're a Costa backer in this one, you absolutely have to be worried about his pace come round 3.

[hankcream]

I think Adesanya is too skilled and fast to be get caught by a big Costa shot. Being a 5 round fight I gotta believe Costa is going to gas out.

2units - Adesanya ITD +135

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups MMA MANIA -





265 lbs.: Juan Espino vs. Jeff Hughes

Juan Espino (9-1) — Robert Whittaker’s second Heavyweight pick on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 28 — rewarded his coach’s confidence by taking out Team Gastelum’s top two Heavyweights in Ben Sosoli and Maurice Greene. The wins sent him to the Finale, where he ended Justin Frazier’s Cinderella run via first-round submission.
Now 39, he ends a nearly 22-month layoff on Saturday.
Four months after defending his LFA title with a decision over Maurice Greene, Jeff Hughes (10-3) battered Josh Appelt on “Contender Series” to earn himself a contract. He’s yet to claim victory in the Octagon, going 0-2 (1 NC) and most recently dropping a decision to Raphael Pessoa in Oct. 2019.
He has knocked out four opponents as a professional.
What’s frustrating about making this pick is that Hughes is capable of far more than he’s shown in the Octagon. He’s a very capable boxer and should be able to handily overpower Espino on the feet, as the latter’s striking strategy generally boils down to “avoid at all costs.” On top of that, Espino is nearing 40 and hasn’t laced up the gloves since 2018.
In short, if Hughes fights up to his abilities, he should demolish “El Guapo.”
But that’s the rub: Hughes hasn’t fought up to his abilities. There is no excuse for his performance against the technically inferior Pessoa, a fight in which Hughes threw a measly 77 significant strikes in 15 minutes. If that fight served as a wake-up call and Hughes comes out guns blazing, he could pull the upset, but the likelier outcome sees him dragged to the mat and choked out in short order.
Prediction: Espino via first-round submission
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Pic: UFC 253 Poster Drops!

205 lbs.: Khadis Ibragimov vs. Danilo Marques

Khadis Ibragimov (8-3) entered the Octagon with some hype behind him, having won and defended the M-1 Light Heavyweight title without ever seeing the judges during his time in the promotion. UFC success continues to elude him, however, as he’s dropped three straight and is coming off a brutal knockout loss to Roman Dolidze in July.
He’ll have one inch of reach on Danilo Marques (9-2) despite standing three inches shorter.
Marques was 7-1 as a professional when he got a chance to headline an LFA show, where he dropped a competitive split decision to Myron Dennis. He got back on track with two more wins, but has been out of action for 31 months.
His eight finishes are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
It says a lot about Ibragimov’s current stock that UFC had to dredge up an unknown fighter who hasn’t fought since 2018 to give him a reasonably winnable fight. I’ve already said plenty about the way Ibragimov neglects his to-notch grappling in favor of subpar brawling, so I won’t harp on about that anymore, but even that should be enough to carry him past Marques. The Brazilian offers mediocre wrestling and very little else, so unless he’s spent these past couple years reinventing himself from the ground up, he’s going to get walloped while fruitlessly attempting to overpower Ibragimov’s judo.
Much can change in that sort of time, of course, and I’m long past underestimating Ibragimov’s ability to shoot himself in the foot. Still, based on what I’ve seen, he sprawls-and-brawls to an early finish.
Prediction: Ibragimov via first-round technical knockout



155 lbs.: Brad Riddell vs. Alex da Silva

Brad Riddell (8-1) — a former kickboxing standout — produced one of the more memorable UFC debuts in recent memory in an absolute war against Jamie Mullarkey in Oct. 2019. Next came destructive striker Magomed Mustafaev, whom Riddell forced to rely on his wrestling before the Aussie took a split decision.
“Quake” gives up one inch of height and two inches of reach to “Leko.”
Brazil’s Alex da Silva (21-2) entered the Octagon with 20 stoppages in 20 victories, but fell victim to a Schultz Headlock from veteran Alexander Yakovlev in his promotional debut. He returned to action four months later, taking a decision over Rodrigo Vargas to enter the UFC win column.
This will be his first fight in 13 months thanks to the coronavirus canceling an April bout with Tristan Connelly.
da Silva is a very promising young fighter at just 24, which makes it all the more tragic that he’s going to get thumped here. He’s markedly out-gunned on the feet even with his height and length, and while he’s impressively well-rounded and capable on the mat, I’m not convinced his wrestling chops are sufficient to take the fast-improving “Quake” out of his comfort zone.
That said, Riddell is far from untouchable in the standup, and da Silva’s got some pop and technical striking chops of his own. Are they enough to get “Leko” the win? No, but it should keep things plenty entertaining while they last. Riddell overpowers him in a brutal kickboxing match.
Prediction: Riddell via third round technical knockout
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Video: UFC 253 Countdown To Adesanya Vs. Costa Full Episode

170 lbs.: Diego Sanchez vs. Jake Matthews

A decision over Craig White and a ground-and-pound stoppage of Mickey Gall resulted in the first Diego Sanchez (30-12) win streak since 2011. He’s struggled to maintain that momentum, dropping a wide decision to Michael Chiesa and taking a disqualification win against Michel Pereira in a fight he was losing madly.
He is the shorter man by one inch.
Jake Matthews (16-4) won four of his first five bouts as a UFC Lightweight before consecutive losses to Kevin Lee and Andrew Holbrook sent him back to 170 pounds. He presently rides a 5-1 run that includes a “Fight of the Night” upset of Li Jingliang at UFC 221.
He has tapped seven professional foes and knocked out another four.
The White fight showed that Sanchez can still do good work against incompetent wrestlers, while his wins over Marcin Held and Mickey Gall showed that his pace can be exhausting for the unprepared. Unfortunately for him, he’s terribly unlikely to have that sort of success against Matthews, who can physically overpower him and hold his own wherever the fight ends up. Sanchez won’t be able to wear him down or find any success on the feet, leaving him at the mercy of a bigger, younger, stronger, fresher fighter.
I’m not sure if Matthews has the firepower to put Sanchez down, but he’s got all the tools he needs to dominate for three rounds. In the end, dominant striking, strong takedown defense and the occasional bout of top control carry Matthews to a one-sided decision.
Prediction: Matthews via unanimous decision
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145 lbs.: Shane Young vs. Ludovit Klein

Shane Young (13-4) had the misfortune of meeting Alexander Volkanovski in his Octagon debut, and though he lasted the distance against the future champ, the loss snapped a five-fight win streak. He’s won two straight since, earning “Fight of the Night” in his second-round knockout of Rolando Dy.
He makes his first appearance since Feb. 2019.
After starting his pro career undefeated (5-0), Ludovit Klein (16-2) hit a 3-2 patch in 2017 that saw him choked out by Aiden Lee under the Cage Warriors banner. Undeterred, he went on to win seven straight, six of them by knockout and three of those coming via head kick.
He steps in for Nate Landwehr — who tested positive for COVID-19 — on less than two weeks’ notice.
I’d never heard of Klein before this weekend, but I came away extremely impressed. He’s a truly lethal southpaw striker whose blending of the straight left and left high kick remind me of Mirko Cro Cop. While Young is definitely an adept kickboxer in his own right, Klein looks to have the edge in speed and stopping power, setting the stage for a triumphant debut.
Though this could just be a case of me being enamored by something new and shiny, I genuinely believe Klein is a special talent. Between his potency on the feet and his excellent balance precluding any attempts by Young to turn it into a ground fight, expect him to drop the hammer somewhere around the midway point.
Prediction: Klein via second round technical knockout
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205 lbs.: William Knight vs. Aleksa Camur

Despite four knockout wins in four professional fights, William Knight (8-1) entered “Contender Series” as an underdog, only to outlast and pound out Herdem Alacabek to earn a developmental contract. Though he lost to future UFC signee Tafon Nchukwi two fights later, he secured a full contract earlier this month by knocking out Cody Brundage midway through the first round.
Five of his eight professional knockouts have come in the first round.
Aleksa Camur (6-0) — a training partner of Stipe Miocic — made the most of his “Contender Series” opportunity by knocking out Fabio Cherant in the second round. This set up a January debut against Justin Ledet, whom Camur outworked to claim a narrow decision.
He stands three inches taller than Knight at 6’1.”
Honestly, I’m still not convinced that Knight is UFC-ready. Sure, he’s a physical specimen who’s visibly improving between fights, but his striking and offensive wrestling remain underdeveloped. It seems like his only consistent strategy is “get taken down, either sweep or wait it out, then pound them out from top position” like a poor man’s Derrick Lewis.
Based on that fight with Nchukwi, where he went all-in on takedowns and failed to complete a single one before getting bashed into submission, Knight is highly unlikely to get Camur to the mat. That leaves him to deal with a far superior boxer in the standup; considering Knight’s yet to show much in that area besides some solid low kicks and a passable one-two combination, it’ll end poorly for him. In short, Camur smashes him quick.
Prediction: Camur via first round technical knockout

[JIBBBY]

Always bet on Black, Izzy is the lean..

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I think reyes will be too much for Jan but i gotta say Blachowicz is a breath of fresh air and seems to be a happy and jovial guy outside the octagon. He is always smiling and joking around in interviews and such, he has won me over so rooting for him to be the first Polish man to be a UFC champ.

[povis]

Bet on Izzy cheer for Costa, Adesanya a bit douchey

[UncleChael]

Always bet on black.
My girl, Sijaraaa "Rob The Bank" Eubanks is already a warmed up from.a couple cards ago. This girl could fight every other week.
Tell em Uncle Chael sent ya. +165.