UFC on ESPN 14: Whittaker vs. Till (July 25, 2020)

**ichiro4thehall** · 07-18-20, 11:49 PM

The Whittaker Till odds seem so crazy to me. Till is 2-2 his last 4. His 2 wins were a split decision(which I think he deserved) and a pretty bad home-cooked decision win which the majority agree he lost. Only 1 of those fights was at MW.

Way too much emphasis is on each fighter's last fight. Till's win over Gastelum looks a little less impressive imo after Gastelum's latest effort. I do worry a bit that Whittaker is at the start of a decline but he should still be a comfortable favourite given both fighters' records.

I see them actually as having very similar styles. Whittaker is the smarter fighter tho and will try different strategies during the fight if Till is dominating the kick-boxing match at range early, whereas I can see Till changing nothing if he is being outpointed consistently on the feet. Till's chin is def more suspect for me than Whittaker's.

The crazy thing is. I actually think Till will start the fight as favourite!

**Sanity Check** · 07-19-20, 02:59 PM

15 fights.

Most I've seen @ a UFC event.

**frankieunits2685** · 07-19-20, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by Sanity Check

15 fights.

Most I've seen @ a UFC event.

Wow!

**Unwritten Law** · 07-20-20, 12:38 AM

The fact that this historic card in Abu Dhabi, many fighters probably wanted to be on this card and the UFC making its best effort to leave a lasting impression before leaving the Island.

**hankcream** · 07-20-20, 09:11 AM

Werdum looked terrible his last time out, I'm surprised they didn't release him.

**JIBBBY** · 07-20-20, 09:44 AM

I think you gotta go with Whittiker against Till.. It's a close fight to cap because of the style match up.. Till is prettty good with boxing. Wondering if Whittiker tries to mix it up and grapple a bit if he's getting punked standing. Whittiker got worked in his last fight by a long rangy boxer in Israel though. Hmmm?.. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Robert-Whittaker-45132

I still can't see Whittiker getting dropped in back to back fights.. He was on a roll before he ran into a brick wall against Israel..

Robert

https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Robert-Whittaker-45132

Robert Whittaker breaking news and and highlights for UFC on ABC 9 fight vs. Reinier de Ridder, with official Sherdog mixed martial arts stats, photos, videos, and more for the Middleweight fighter from Australia.

Masvidal flattened Till...

**PaperTrail07** · 07-20-20, 11:13 AM

IMO whittaker should be -180 ...but what do I know LOL...

**PaperTrail07** · 07-20-20, 11:14 AM

Get your popcorn ready Love it

**WolfTicketDealer** · 07-20-20, 11:45 AM

Till is the ultimate example of people overrating size in fights.

One concern with Whittaker is the injuries he's had over the years. Honestly like Won't Go Distance for this one, though I'll be on Rob as well.

**hankcream** · 07-20-20, 02:20 PM

Chimaev taking another fight 10 days after his last one and he's -815

interesting.

**JIBBBY** · 07-20-20, 04:40 PM

Nog vs Shogun is old school.. Worthy of Bellator

..

I think you gotta go with Shogun in this one.. Shogun 38 years old with brutal miles on him, Nog 44 with just as much brutal fighting miles on him as well.. Gotta go with the younger and more active fighter in this one.. I expect these odds to jump in Shoguns favor quick come fight time also..

UFC on ESPN 14 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds - UFC Fight Island - Yas Island, Abu Dhabi - ESPN
any venue has action
Sat 7/25	1101 Antonio Rogerio Nogueira	+155	o1½ -125
10:00PM	1102 Mauricio Rua	-175	u1½ +105

Antonio Rogerio

https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Antonio-Rogerio-Nogueira-2270

The industry pioneer in UFC, Bellator and all things MMA (aka Ultimate Fighting). MMA news, interviews, pictures, videos and more since 1997.

**UncleChael** · 07-20-20, 05:16 PM

@Jibbby I remember betting Shogun in the 2nd fight and thought it was tougher fight than it should've been. Pretty sure Shogun got hurt round 1. Shogun definitely lost round 1. http://mmadecisions.com/decision/637...A9rio-Nogueira
Lil Nog does have the better boxing. IMO

**JIBBBY** · 07-20-20, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by UncleChael

@Jibbby I remember betting Shogun in the 2nd fight and thought it was tougher fight than it should've been. Pretty sure Shogun got hurt round 1. Shogun definitely lost round 1. http://mmadecisions.com/decision/637...A9rio-Nogueira
Lil Nog does have the better boxing. IMO

44 years old is 44 years old though.. I'll take the 38 year old dude in this one.. We'll see??? Father time is a killer in MMA.. 44 is OLD!! It's a younger mans sport.. That's all I know!!!

**UncleChael** · 07-20-20, 05:51 PM

I would still take Randy Couture over half these heavyweights

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-20-20, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by WolfTicketDealer

Till is the ultimate example of people overrating size in fights.

One concern with Whittaker is the injuries he's had over the years. Honestly like Won't Go Distance for this one, though I'll be on Rob as well.

Bro the size

**UncleChael** · 07-20-20, 07:22 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

IMO whittaker should be -180 ...but what do I know LOL...

Maybe cause Izzy cleaned his chin. No cap.

**JIBBBY** · 07-20-20, 08:06 PM

Gus by KO if the bigger Werdum doesn't grab on to Gus and take him down and get top position.. The smaller Gus will get smothered and sub'd.. BIG IF THOUGH!!

I think Gus boxes Werdum up and knocks him out.. Werdum rushing in for the take down or stand up grind on the cage Gus will tag him..

Gus by Ko hedge Werdum by sub is probably the call if you wanna keep it safe..

**spurginobili** · 07-21-20, 06:10 AM

Originally posted by Sanity Check

15 fights.

Most I've seen @ a UFC event.

Yeah, I think it's a first...parlay city man. lol

**PaperTrail07** · 07-21-20, 09:56 AM

Till is nothing like izzzy......till sits there like a punching bag and Whittaker will be throwing bombs at it and using footwork IMO......

Originally posted by UncleChael

Maybe cause Izzy cleaned his chin. No cap.

**WolfTicketDealer** · 07-21-20, 11:08 AM

Shogun/Nog is a pass IMO. Don't think Shogun should be a -200 fav against anyone at this point but it is hard to back a 44 year old fighter.

Liked Gus at the opener and out to -270 or so but don't think there's too much value at this point. Also, Gus does have the size to compete at HW so not really worried about that.

**PaperTrail07** · 07-21-20, 01:45 PM

Dalby ITD +150

**PaperTrail07** · 07-21-20, 01:47 PM

Shogun also appears to have value IMO>..... Faster, Younger, Stronger ect......be shocked to see an L IMO....

**PaperTrail07** · 07-21-20, 01:49 PM

Nothing more than a NOG paycheck collection ......Shogun throws punches....pushes him to the cage....puts his ass on the ground and TKO....game over IMO....

Originally posted by WolfTicketDealer

Shogun/Nog is a pass IMO. Don't think Shogun should be a -200 fav against anyone at this point but it is hard to back a 44 year old fighter.

Liked Gus at the opener and out to -270 or so but don't think there's too much value at this point. Also, Gus does have the size to compete at HW so not really worried about that.

**Sanity Check** · 07-21-20, 02:01 PM

Does anyone remember how horrible and unprepared Shogun looked in his last fight with Paul Craig.

Nvm. I wish I had stayed silent and not posted this. Consistency in MMA is such a fickle thing.

**PaperTrail07** · 07-21-20, 02:48 PM

Funny they are fighting on the same card again----with a DRAW---surprised they didn't run it back

Originally posted by Sanity Check

Does anyone remember how horrible and unprepared Shogun looked in his last fight with Paul Craig.

Nvm. I wish I had stayed silent and not posted this. Consistency in MMA is such a fickle thing.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-21-20, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Dalby ITD +150

Think Dalby Decision is far more likely. BetPoints bet?

**rsynweap84** · 07-21-20, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by WolfTicketDealer

Shogun/Nog is a pass IMO. Don't think Shogun should be a -200 fav against anyone at this point but it is hard to back a 44 year old fighter.

Liked Gus at the opener and out to -270 or so but don't think there's too much value at this point. Also, Gus does have the size to compete at HW so not really worried about that.

Definitely agree, and I actually feel Werdum is on the same ride...Gus even if taken down I think can make to the bell at least, more likely still get up and destroy this fat old man, you'd a gotten more fight out of a rock or a cactus in a pot in the ring than this clod. Werdum is dead.

**PaperTrail07** · 07-21-20, 08:27 PM

Whats the line? I would agree, I was just basing my bet off the +$$.....not against some action though.....

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Think Dalby Decision is far more likely. BetPoints bet?

**PaperTrail07** · 07-21-20, 08:31 PM

Heritage has it even $......Id roll those dice....200?....will go up to 5...

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-21-20, 11:10 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Heritage has it even $......Id roll those dice....200?....will go up to 5...

To be clear I want NOT Dalby ITD (-150). Is that good with you? Just the reverse of the Dalby ITD (+150) that you pointed out.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-21-20, 11:12 PM

Originally posted by WolfTicketDealer

Shogun/Nog is a pass IMO. Don't think Shogun should be a -200 fav against anyone at this point but it is hard to back a 44 year old fighter.

Liked Gus at the opener and out to -270 or so but don't think there's too much value at this point. Also, Gus does have the size to compete at HW so not really worried about that.

Where do you cap Gus' chances of winning? I think there is some value on Werdum.

**JC2008** · 07-22-20, 05:06 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Where do you cap Gus' chances of winning? I think there is some value on Werdum.

Werdum sub +600 seems ridiculous. Especially against someone who has already retired and is past his prime. Gus probably wins but Werdum's no pushover. Even at his age.

**Demonata** · 07-22-20, 08:09 AM

I hope whittaker wins. I respect the dude.

**WolfTicketDealer** · 07-22-20, 08:38 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Where do you cap Gus' chances of winning? I think there is some value on Werdum.

Probably around the current line. Gus should have a significant speed advantage with much crisper boxing. We've seen Gus have good TDD against elite competition, plus this is only 3 rounds so I don't expect Gus to gas. Not a big fan of betting juiced HW's so atm it's probably a pass for me unless the line gets better.

I do agree that the Werdum sub line is ridiculous. It's by far his most likely path to victory.