UFC on ESPN 9: Woodley vs. Burns (May 30, 2020)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN, 9:00 pm ET
Tyron Woodley vs Gilbert Burns
Blagoy Ivanov vs Augusto Sakai
Gabriel Green vs Daniel Rodriguez
Roosevelt Roberts vs Brok Weaver
Hannah Cifers vs Mackenzie Dern

ESPN+ 6:00 pm ET
Katlyn Chookagian vs Antonina Shevchenko
Spike Carlyle vs Billy Quarantillo
Klidson Abreu vs Jamahal Hill
Casey Kenney vs Louis Smolka
Chris Gutierrez vs Vince Morales

[PaperTrail07]

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Mackenzie Dern just gave birth right?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Mackenzie Dern just gave birth right?

No that was almost a year ago. June 2019 iirc

[Demonata]

This thread is what i'm talking about! the legendary thread creator the locksmith! thanks man.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Locky is an OG for sure.

[Sanity Check]

Good job dividing people.

For no reason.

Do we have to act like children here.

Asking for a friend.

[Demonata]

Good job dividing people.

For no reason.

Do we have to act like children here.

Asking for a friend.

It's just a more organized thread man. No big deal. Good luck on your fight picks. I just like the way he sets them up so clean.

[Sanity Check]

The best solution is merging both threads into 1.

That way the time and energy people put into posting in the other thread don't go to waste.

[JIBBBY]

Write ups!! Prelims mmamania -




125 lbs.: Tim Elliott vs. Brandon Royval

Despite falling short against Demetrious Johnson after running the table on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 24, Tim Elliott (15-10-1) went on to win two of his next three, earning post-fight bonuses for his victories over Louis Smolka and Mark De La Rosa. He enters the cage on a two-fight skid, however, losing to Deiveson Figueiredo and Askar Askarov.
He gives up 3.5 inches of reach to “Raw Dawg.”
Brandon Royval (10-4) stepped up on short notice to fight Casey Kenney for the LFA Interim Flyweight title, resulting in the end of his three-fight winning streak. He came back with a vengeance in 2019, though, following a first-round finish of UFC vet Joby Sanchez with a 23-second armbar of Nate Williams to claim the belt. All but one of his nine stoppage wins have come in the first round.
I feel like the only way this doesn’t wind up being Fight of the Night is if one of them hits a Submission of the Night too early. The ground transitions between these two are going to be utterly ludicrous, and Elliott’s face-first slugging should mesh well with Royval’s improvisational striking to keep it fun for however long it stays on the feet.
Watching Royval get manhandled by Kenney had me leaning towards Elliott, who dragged Smolka to the mat a dozen times. At the same time, Elliott’s fights with Ben Nguyen and Figueiredo showed that his submission defense isn’t impregnable, and Royval is a complete nightmare off of his back. Still, Elliott’s wrestling edge is just too significant for me to bank on Royval, who isn’t winning this by decision, landing the submission he needs. Elliott out-wrestles and out-scrambles Royval in a truly phenomenal grappling battle.
Prediction: Elliott via unanimous decision
Related
‘Woodley Vs. Burns’ Multimedia Live Stream | Fight Week

135 lbs.: Casey Kenney vs. Louis Smolka

After failing to secure an Octagon contract in two “Contender Series” appearances, Casey Kenney (13-2-1) returned to LFA, where he claimed the interim Flyweight and Bantamweight titles. His UFC career has seen him edge out Ray Borg on an eight-day turnaround, upset the overweight Manny Bermudez, and most recently lose a decision to Merab Dvalishvili in February.
He is the shorter man by two inches.
A four-fight skid led to Louis Smolka’s (16-6) exit from UFC, only for a three-fight winning streak to bring him back last year. He’s 2-1 in his latest stint, stoppage wins over Sumudaerji and Ryan MacDonald sandwiching a submission loss to Matt Schnell.
He has knocked out and submitted seven pro foes apiece.
Luckily for those of us keen on making predictions, we’ve already gotten to see Kenney in action against Brandon Royval, who shares Smolka’s blend of free-flowing striking and absolutely lethal submissions. Kenney handily overpowered “Raw Dog” on the feet and on the mat for five rounds, constantly scoring with counter punches, landing easy takedowns, and maintaining position without ever being in submission danger.
I expect something similar here. Kenney’s boxing is good enough to control the standup and he can both put Smolka on his back at will and shut down his grappling attack. Dominant top control and clean left hands carry Kenney to a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Kenney via unanimous decision
Related
UFC Ramps Up COVID-19 Testing For Las Vegas Return

135 lbs.: Chris Gutierrez vs. Vince Morales

Chris Gutierrez (14-4-1) took on Raoni Barcelos in a clash of UFC debutants in Nov. 2018, tapping to a second-round choke to snap a three-fight winning streak. He’s since demolished Ryan MacDonald and taken a controversial split decision over Geraldo de Freitas. He’ll give up an inch of reach to the shorter Morales.
Vince Morales (9-4) — who succumbed to a comeback submission against Domingo Pilarte on “Contender Series” — fell to Song Yadong in his short-notice debut four months later. He went on to upset Aiemann Zahabi before dropping a highly questionable decision to Benito Lopez in his most recent effort.
“Vandetta” has knocked out five pro opponents and submitted two others.
Weirdly enough, Morales’ technical prowess may be what ultimately does him in. de Freitas repeatedly found the mark on the kick-happy Gutierrez by damning the torpedoes and straight-up chasing him down with haymakers, a stratagem that I can’t imagine Morales utilizing. It’s also worth noting that Lopez was having plenty of success chewing up the patient Morales’ lead leg before “Vandetta’s” counter right knocked the confidence out of him.
In short, Morales will have to fight a very atypical fight to get through Gutierrez’s kicks, especially since “El Guapo” likely won’t have to worry about takedowns. I don’t see Morales consistently getting inside without having his leg compromised, and though that right hand of his can end the fight in an instant, Gutierrez should be able to steer clear. Gutierrez pieces him up at range for a decision.
Prediction: Gutierrez via unanimous decision



125 lbs.: Katlyn Chookagian vs. Antonina Shevchenko

A 4-1 UFC Flyweight run — marred only by a split decision loss to Jessica Eye — led Katlyn Chookagian (13-3) to a title shot against Valentina Shevchenko. “Blonde Fighter” would ultimately come up short like so many others, succumbing to ground-and-pound in the third round.
She’ll have one inch of height and reach on Shevchenko.
Antonina Shevchenko (8-1) mauled Jaimee Nievera on “Contender Series” to secure a contract, then followed that up with a wide decision over Ji Yeon Kim in her debut. A massive upset loss to Roxanne Modafferi spelled the end of her unbeaten record, but she returned to the win column four months later with a “Fight of the Night” submission of Lucie Pudilova.
“La Pantera” has knocked out two opponents alongside that singular tapout.
Don’t go in expecting a repeat of Chookagian’s title fight — chief among the differences that separate Antonina from her sister is the former’s lack of wrestling. Without that threat, Chookagian is free to strike to her heart’s content, though the same can be said of Shevchenko.
This one will boil down to distance. If things stay at kicking range, Chookagian’s volume theoretically gives her the edge. The clinch, on the other hand, is Shevchenko’s world, especially since she won’t have to worry about “Blonde Fighter” changing levels. Looking at their relative prowess in the other’s wheelhouse, Chookagian’s potential edge in outfighting isn’t as significant as Shevchenko’s edge in in-fighting, and we’ve seen shorter fighters than Shevchenko successfully get inside on Chookagian. Shevchenko tunes her up at point blank to make it two straight.
Prediction: Shevchenko via unanimous decision
Related
‘Woodley Vs. Burns’ Multimedia Live Stream | Fight Week

150 lbs.: Billy Quarantillo vs. Spike Carlyle

Though his The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 22 run didn’t quite pan out, Billy Quarantillo (13-2) ultimately punched his ticket to the Octagon four years later by stopping Kamuela Kirk on “Contender Series.” He was slated to debut against Chris Fishgold, but instead took on Jacob Kilburn, whom he mauled on the mat en route to a second-round submission finish.
He’ll enjoy a three-inch height advantage on fight night.
Spike Carlyle (9-1) entered UFC on a four-fight win streak, two of those coming by first-round knockout. “The Alpha Ginger” made it three straight in his debut, rocking and stopping “Contender Series” veteran Aalon Cruz in just 85 seconds.
His eight stoppage wins include five via (technical) knockout.
I’m not sure if this is just me subconsciously overestimating Carlyle to make up for underestimating him against Cruz, but I really think he’s got this. The concern I had in that fight was that Carlyle, a terrific grappler, wouldn’t be able to close the distance against such a lengthy out-fighter. Quarantillo, meanwhile, is a pressure striker who will happily get all up in Carlyle’s grill and open himself up to takedowns.
Though Quarantillo has the gas tank to work his way back to his feet and melt people with volume, Carlyle only really needs to get on top once to finish things. He either pounds out Quarantillo or snatches a submission in transition.
Prediction: Carlyle via first-round technical knockout
Related
UFC Ramps Up COVID-19 Testing For Las Vegas Return

205 lbs.: Jamahal Hill vs. Klidson Abreu

Jamahal Hill (7-0) elbowed his way to a UFC contract on “Contender Series,” only for **** issues to scrap a planned Aug. 2019 debut opposite Da Un Jung. “Sweet Dreams” finally got his shot in the Octagon in January and made the most of it, fighting through six takedowns to take a decision over Darko Stosic.
He’ll enjoy two inches of height and five inches of reach advantage.
Klidson Abreu (15-4) earned the nickname “Russian Terror” for his impressive exploits on the European circuit, though he wasn’t able to repeat the effort against Dagestani’s Magomed Ankalaev in his UFC debut. He secured his first Octagon victory five months later with a decision over Sam Alvey, but fell victim to some questionable judging against Shamil Gamzatov.
Ten of his 14 stoppage wins have come via submission.
It’s easy to underestimate Abreu — beyond being officially 1-2 in the Octagon, he’s been loath to use the top-notch grappling that made him such a menace across the pond, instead relying on his middling striking. If he tries that here, it’ll end poorly, as Hill is significantly rangier and more versatile on the feet. If Abreu actually does fight with a modicum of sense, though, Hill’s underdeveloped wrestling is an incredibly tempting target.
Unless Hill has made major strides since his last fight, Abreu should be able to take him down without too much issue, and getting out from under him is exponentially more difficult than song so against Stosic. So long as Abreu doesn’t try to trade strikes, he wrangles Hill to the mat and chokes him out in a hurry.
Prediction: Abreu via first-round submission

[JIBBBY]

Couple main card fight break downs..


170 lbs.: Tyron Woodley vs. Gilbert Burns
Tyron “The Chosen One” Woodley
Record: 19-4-1 | Age: 38 | Betting line: -175
Wins: 7 KO/TKO, 5 SUB, 7 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 5’9“ | Reach: 74” | Stance: Orthodox
Striking accuracy: 448 of 939 (48%) | Takedown attempts: 5 of 13 (38%)
Current Ranking: No. 1 | Last fight: Decision loss to Kamaru Usman
Gilbert “Durinho” Burns
Record: 18-3 | Age: 33 | Betting line: +155
Wins: 6 KO/TKO, 8 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 5’10“ | Reach: 71” | Stance: Orthodox
Striking accuracy: 408 of 927 (44%) | Takedown attempts: 13 of 56 (39%)
Current Ranking: No. 6 | Last fight: Technical knockout win over Demian Maia
We as fans — and I think this holds true for any sport — have a tendency to fall out of love with ex-champions. Tyron Woodley lost his welterweight title after getting dominated by Kamaru Usman and not long after the dust settled at UFC 235, there was talk about “The Chosen One’s” legacy and whether he was really any good in the first place. That’s just the cruel nature of fandom and once you’re no longer on top, you’re a “can” who was “exposed” by real competition. Part of the blame in this case rests squarely on the shoulders of Woodley and his shitty attitude, registering just two fights over the last three years. Count me as one of the many fans who are sick of inactivity in a sport that is already watered down. That’s not a Woodley problem, that’s a UFC superstar problem. What does this have to do with his performance at UFC on ESPN 9 this weekend in Las Vegas? Quite a bit, when you consider that Woodley turned 38 back in April and laid an egg his last time out. He looks great and I’m sure he feels great, but sooner or later he’s going to have to answer to Father Time and if that phone rings in “Sin City,” Gilbert Burns is going to answer it.
That doesn’t mean I’ve boarded the “Durinho” hype train because I’m still not convinced he’s a major player at welterweight. It’s not like he’s facing off against a mid-tier veteran, we’re talking about the No. 1-ranked fighter in the world who is just one fight removed from a championship title reign. In addition, Burns is only in this division because he likes to stay active and welterweight always seems to be in need of a warm body. He certainly made the most of it, racking up three straight wins, but am I supposed to go crazy over a decision victory against Alexey Kunchenko? And I’m sorry but beating Gunnar Nelson, who like Kunchenko is unranked at 170 pounds, is not a big deal in 2020. I’m also not breaking out the party hats for his knockout win over Demian Maia who is one of the worst strikers in the division and just a few months in front of his 43rd birthday. Remember folks, Donald Cerrone won four straight when he moved up to welterweight and then it all went to hell when he started facing the division’s elite.
I know all the cool kids are picking Burns because Woodley is yesterday’s news. I would probably feel more confident in that selection had I seen “Durinho” compete against someone in the Top 5, like a Leon Edwards or a Colby Covington. Granted, his striking has come a long way since he got starched by Dan Hooker, but Burns does not have the speed or the power of Woodley. The question is, will “The Chosen One” actually use it? The Woodley who chopped down Carlos Condit and mummified Robbie Lawler would steamroll Burns. The play-it-safe Woodley who likes to wall-n-stall does not, though I would be remiss if I did not mention that “Durinho” has never been five rounds in his career, something the ex-champ has done four times over the last four years. Remember too, that we are talking about a lightweight who doesn’t diet facing a career welterweight who is built and moves like a thoroughbred. Unless the time off and inactivity, or the self-doubt in the wake of the Usman clinic has made him a lesser fighter, this is Woodley’s contest to lose. His wrestling is better (and neutralizes the jiu-jitsu), he hits harder, and has the kind of big-game experience that Burns has only watched on TV.
Prediction: Woodley def. Burns by unanimous decision
Related
Woodley Overcame Depression On Path To Redemption

265 lbs.: Blagoy Ivanov vs. Augusto Sakai
Blagoy “Baga” Ivanov
Record: 18-3, 1 NC | Age: 33 | Betting line: -105
Wins: 6 KO/TKO, 6 SUB, 6 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 5’11“ | Reach: 73” | Stance: Southpaw
Striking accuracy: 196 of 530 (37%) | Takedown attempts: 5 of 8 (63%)
Current Ranking: No. 12 | Last fight: Decision loss to Derrick Lewis
Augusto Sakai
Record: 14-1-1 | Age: 29 | Betting line: -115
Wins: 11 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 3 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 6’3“ | Reach: 77” | Stance: Orthodox
Striking accuracy: 184 of 386 (48%) | Takedown attempts: 1 of 2 (50%)
Current Ranking: No. 13 | Last fight: Knockout win over Marcin Tybura
I remember how excited I was when they announced this contest for the UFC on ESPN 9 co-main event. Just kidding. To be honest, I forgot they were even fighting until I sat down to write this preview and if you made it this far, god bless you fine sir (or madam). I know that sounds kind of dick-ish when you consider the record for both Blagoy Ivanov and Augusto Sakai, a combined 32-4, but “Baga” is 2-2 inside the Octagon and has yet to register a finish under the UFC banner. His Brazilian counterpart has performed much better though to be fair, he didn't have the unenviable task of facing the likes of Junior dos Santos or Derrick Lewis, who are both ranked in the division’s Top 5. Instead, he got to knock around a bunch of unranked heavyweights, perhaps a reward for performing so admirably on Dana White’s Contender Series. Both combatants had impressive runs for Bellator MMA and probably would have faced off back in summer 2014, but alas, Ivanov departed for World Series of Fighting (WSOF) just two months before Sakai made his promotion debut.
Sakai comes into this bout boasting considerable advantages in both height and reach. He’s also registered 11 knockouts in 14 wins. I just can’t see him finishing a brute as durable as Ivanov and I try not to bet against guys who get stabbed in the heart and walk it off. The question for this contest is whether or not “Baga” is going to be content to counterstrike or if he’ll actually use some of his world-class Sambo, good enough to dethrone Fedor Emelianenko back in 2008. This is only a three-round fight so if Sakai — who also hasn’t been finished in his MMA career — is busier on the feet and uses his length, he could follow the path of “Cigano” and box his way to victory. Ivanov might land more significant strikes but his counterstriking approach does not leave him active enough to sway the judges, which is why some of that grappling would come in handy, even if it’s just to neutralize his opponent’s output. This is a really tough call, which is why the betting line is so close, but I’m leaning toward the younger, more aggressive fighter to take a very close decision.
Prediction: Sakai def. Ivanov by split decision

[PaperTrail07]

Day Away Fellas

[Hugo de Naranja]

Should be a good one!

[JIBBBY]

Weigh ins? See anything out of the norm?

[Sanity Check]

Good thing the UFC has competent people running things.

Unlike bellator, who was losing millions before the corona virus hit, and can't afford to do shows atm.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN 9: Burns vs. Woodley Picks:
Vince Morales Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Casey Kenney Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Tim Elliott Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Klidson Abreu Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Daniel Rodriguez Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Antonina Shevchenko Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Mackenzie Dern Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Roosevelt Roberts Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Billy Quarantillo Round 3 TKO (Punches)
Augusto Sakai Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Gilbert Burns Unanimous Decision (48-47 x3)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN 9: Burns vs. Woodley

ESPN Prelims:

Fight #1: V. Morales vs. Gutierrez
V. Morales (-112) 0.56u to win 0.5u

Fight #2: Kenney vs. Smolka
Kenney -3.5 (+120) 1.75u

Hedge:
Smolka ITD (+550) 0.3u

Fight #3: Elliott vs. Royval (DEBUT)
Parlays

Fight #4: Abreu vs. J. Hill
Abreu Scorecards = No Action (-145) 1.09u to win 0.75u
Abreu (+160) 1u
Abreu ITD (+270) 0.35u

Fight #5: Rodriguez vs. G. Green (DEBUT)
No Bet

Fight #6: A. Shevchenko vs. Chookagian
A. Shevchenko (-130) 1u to win 0.77u

Main Card:

Fight #7: Dern vs. Cifers
Dern ITD (-135) 1.01u to win 0.75u

Fight #8: R. Roberts vs. Weaver
Weaver (+300) 0.5u

Fight #9: Quarantillo vs. Carlyle
No Bet

Fight #10: Sakai vs. Ivanov
Sakai (+110) 1u

Fight #11: G. Burns vs. Woodley
G. Burns (+133) 2.5u

Hedge:
Woodley Round 1 (+400) 0.5u

Straight Parlays:
Kenney/A. Shevchenko (+139) 0.5u

Prop Parlays:
Kenney Decision/Elliott/Woodley Decision (+1095) 0.16u
V. Morales/Elliott Decision/J. Hill Decision (+1395) 0.25u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Kenney/O’Malley (-133) 2u to win 1.5u

[BIGDAY]

It’s Fight NIGHT!!

[Demonata]

Good Morning everyone. Ufc day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LEt's make some moneyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

It’s Fight NIGHT!!

Good Morning everyone. Ufc day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LEt's make some moneyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy.

[Sato]

Woodley doesnt look as chiseled. Not so sure anymore...

[Sanity Check]

Woodley doesnt look as chiseled. Not so sure anymore...

Different lighting. It made everyone look like they were rocking a dad bod.

[PaperTrail07]

Not sure why Hill is getting the action right now....on Abreu myself and also think a Sub.....clear Skills diff here ….QUOTE=Hugo de Naranja;29473742]UFC on ESPN 9: Burns vs. Woodley Picks:
Vince Morales Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Casey Kenney Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Tim Elliott Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Klidson Abreu Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Daniel Rodriguez Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Antonina Shevchenko Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Mackenzie Dern Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Roosevelt Roberts Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Billy Quarantillo Round 3 TKO (Punches)
Augusto Sakai Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Gilbert Burns Unanimous Decision (48-47 x3)[/QUOTE]

[PaperTrail07]

GL fellas.....have 3X the action I should.....Locked and Loaded

[JIBBBY]

Well, I finished capping this event just this morning.. For me this one of the tougher cards to bet on. Many fights are evenly matched and could go one way or the other in my mind.. Props are cut and clear either for the fighters when considering value.

I'll be hedging alot on this card just put it that way with the prop play. Don't expect to win alot or lose alot.. I'm in though, I'm gambling!!!


GL fellas!!!

[ryanjep]

Burns looks like a solid play. Gl everyone!

[JIBBBY]

Burns looks like a solid play. Gl everyone!

Hugo talked me into it. I'm on Burns ITD..

[EasyCover]

Let's Fight Bitches!

[frankieunits2685]

GL everyone. Lets make money

[frankieunits2685]

This should be fun with the smaller cage.

[frankieunits2685]

Look at that leg!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Added Hedge:
Smolka ITD (+450) 0.18u

[JIBBBY]

That's what you call chopping down the legs!! OUCH!!! That's pure hell when taking that.

[Demonata]

Lost half my bets already since Morales is basically trash and gas low fight iq and never checks kicks. What a penetrating mismatch. Fuk me already raw no lube!