UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes (February 08, 2020)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-per-view 10:00 pm ET
Jon Jones vs Dominick Reyes (for light heavyweight title)
Valentina Shevchenko vs Katlyn Chookagian (for flyweight title)
Juan Adams vs Justin tafa
Mirsad Bektic vs Dan Ige
Ilir Latifi vs Derrick Lewis

ESPN, 8:00 pm ET
Marlon Vera vs
Antonio Arroyo vs Trevin Giles
Alex Morono vs
Andrea Lee vs Lauren Murphy

ESPN+ 6:15 pm ET
Mario Bautista vs Miles Johns
Journey Newson vs Domingo Pilarte
Andre Ewell vs Jonathan Martinez

[PaperTrail07]

Bektic VS Ige is pretty god damn interesting

[Sanity Check]

Might go with Dan Ige.

For the Firas Zahabi fade.

Also Justin Tafa.

To fade Greg Jackson and Juan Adams moving to albuquerque for this fight.

Might also fade Jon Jones.

"-MIGHT-"

[bjpenn85]

Might go with Dan Ige.

For the Firas Zahabi fade.

Also Justin Tafa.

To fade Greg Jackson and Juan Adams moving to albuquerque for this fight.

Might also fade Jon Jones.

"-MIGHT-"

Favour Juan Adams to take out Tafa within 3 min!

Tafa gettinig outwrestled and outhustled on the feet by people in their debut, that should make you reflect a little lol.

On paper, Adams should merk Tafa at least within a round, but lets see how this pans out.

[Unwritten Law]

I got Reyes here.

[magpie878]

I'm still pissed at Jones for that non-attacking style last fight, then justifying it with feeding his family or some shit.

[PaperTrail07]

Juan Adams needed a move--potential is there but the motivation to be a winner is not......maybe it is now.....excited for this fight honestly

[UncleChael]

I got Jones

[unlearn]

Never bet against Jones, not starting now

[turbozed]

Never bet against Jones, not starting now

Why is that? Seems like now is a good time to look for a good time to bet against Jones, especially after he nearly lost a split decision to Thiago Santos despite being a 4-1 favorite.

Jones is not going to his wrestling quite as much, has lost a bit of that killer instinct, and he continues to have trouble with range kickboxers.

Obviously he still should be a significant favorite over the likes of Reyes, but Reyes has as much of a shot as Thiago did of pulling it off.

[bitcoinLuke]

Why is that? Seems like now is a good time to look for a good time to bet against Jones, especially after he nearly lost a split decision to Thiago Santos despite being a 4-1 favorite.

Jones is not going to his wrestling quite as much, has lost a bit of that killer instinct, and he continues to have trouble with range kickboxers.

Obviously he still should be a significant favorite over the likes of Reyes, but Reyes has as much of a shot as Thiago did of pulling it off.

Reyes isn't as good as Santos. Put the Weidman KO out of your mind. Weidman is completely washed at this point. Go watch Reyes vs Volkan and you'll see the real Reyes.

[Sanity Check]

Favour Juan Adams to take out Tafa within 3 min!

Tafa gettinig outwrestled and outhustled on the feet by people in their debut, that should make you reflect a little lol.

On paper, Adams should merk Tafa at least within a round, but lets see how this pans out.

I don't remember Tafa being outhustled or outwrestled. The way I remember it is he was too aggressive and left his chin hanging out there where it could be countered.

I'm still pissed at Jones for that non-attacking style last fight, then justifying it with feeding his family or some shit.

The same Greg Jackson gameplan Holly Holm used vs Racquel Pennington.

The same Greg Jackson gameplan they've utilized throughout their history that people have given them flak for.

Why is that? Seems like now is a good time to look for a good time to bet against Jones, especially after he nearly lost a split decision to Thiago Santos despite being a 4-1 favorite.

My thinking is, Greg Jackson and their entire team wanted Holly Holm to win her fight vs Racquel very badly.

They wanted to show everyone their team is the best in the world. The way they approach things is more like fight not to be embarrassed or exposed, rather than fight to win in dominate or impressive fashion.

Thiago Santos fought Jon Jones with a torn ACL (?) and damaged knees. And he STILL almost beat Jones. It was a close fight.

It just seems like Holly Holm and Jon Jones aren't improving their skills. Everyone knows their game and tendencies very well. And they both seem on the decline, which could pave the way for an upset.

[Sanity Check]

The way I think about things might be weird.

Imagine if someone spent 6+ hours in a classroom everyday. And didn't learn anything.

Someone might say: if they're investing a lot of time and energy into something & not learning anything, they're wasting their time. Do something else.

Its the same with fighters. If they spend a lot of time in the gym and don't learn anything. Their skills aren't improving. Its a waste of time. Maybe they should find something else to do.

[bjpenn85]

[QUOTE=Sanity Check;29226568]The way I think about things might be weird.

Ive seen all of J.Adams fight, and ive seen all of Tafas fights. That includes watching available content on youtube.

While i several time was about to close the window the way J.Adams fight, no regards to entering his opponents pocket, and looking a bit weird to be honest on his feet. He is still a lot better than Tafa, especially on the ground.

If you watch some of tafas earlier fights, you can see he looses scrambles to a fighter in his debut for 2 years ago. Is it possible for Tafa to close that gap? Not impossible, but i think its a fakking unlikely scenario

I love betting against someone whos completely outgunned in one area like Tafa is. Adams moving to Jacksons as well, its no way in hell they are not going to maul Tafa on the ground.

First round TKO on the ground, easy winner imo.

[Demonata]

Latifi should have a shot against lewis.

[Pinoy-T-X]

Always bet on black!
nvm, I did bet on Apollo Creed over Ivan Drago.

[kcchiefs]

Honestly see slight value in Reyes here. I'm liking Juan Adams, Latifa, and Ige from a quick look.

[PaperTrail07]

I like Ige as a fighter but the value is HEAVY on Bektic imo....

[Sanity Check]

Dominick Reyes looks a bit rattled/overwhelmed from the interviews he's done.

And its not even fight week yet.

He could choke.

[povis]

Jon Jones by finish +120

[magpie878]

I find it very hard to have confidence in a Jones finish, looking at his most recent matches.

6 of the past 7 (not counting Cormier fight) were decisions.

Best of luck to anyone taking it, but I don't think I can get on board with that one.

[Thrilla]

At UFC 247, two of the UFC’s most dominant champs put their belts on the line as Jon Jones faces Dominick Reyes and Valentina Shevchenko takes on Katlyn Chookagian. See these athletes train and prepare ahead of their title bouts.

[JIBBBY]

MMA Mania write ups - PRELIMS -



135 lbs.: Domingo Pilarte vs. Journey Newson

Domingo Pilarte (8-2) survived an early knockdown to choke out Vince Morales on “Contender Series,” claiming both an upset victory and a UFC contract. Injury delayed his debut until the following year, when he dropped a controversial decision to Felipe Colares to snap a five-fight win streak.
He is the taller of the two by seven inches.
Journey Newson (9-2) put together a six-fight win streak following a loss to future UFC competitor Benito Lopez, then stepped in to face Ricardo Ramos on less than a two-month turnaround. He wound up struggling with the Brazilian’s grappling prowess, surrendering three takedowns en route to a unanimous decision loss.
His professional wins are divided perfectly between knockouts, submissions and decisions.
After watching these two struggle to stay off of their backs, I’m hoping for a striking battle here, especially since their respective grappling skills seem sufficiently evenly matched to cancel each other out. If it does stay on the feet, it’s all Pilarte. Yeah, he’s defensively inept, but his enormous height and reach advantages look like a nightmare for Newson to deal with.
Plus, Newson doesn’t punch anywhere near as hard as Morales, so what blows he does land aren’t likely to put Pilarte on the canvas.
There’s definitely some questions on how much the short notice affected Newson or how well he’ll manage on the mat against a less-credentialed grappling artist, but his struggles with a lanky, well-rounded scrapper don’t make me confident of his chances against another win. In short, Pilarte cracks him with enough heavy blows to take the decision.
Prediction: Pilarte via unanimous decision
Related
Watch ‘Countdown’ To UFC 247 Full Video

135 lbs.: Andre Ewell vs. Jonathan Martinez

Andre Ewell (15-6) claimed the CES Bantamweight title with a d’arce finish of Dinis Paiva before edging Renan Barao by split decision in his Octagon debut. He has since lost two of three, falling to elite prospect Nathaniel Wood and The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Latin America” veteran Marlon Vera.
He owns seven professional wins via knockout and another four by submission.
Martinez returned from a year away to face Andre Soukhamthath on short notice in Moncton, showing some impressive durability but ultimately dropping a decision. A decision over Wuliji Buren followed, after which he scored a bonus-winning upset knockout of Pingyuan Liu in Sacramento.
He is three inches shorter than Jonathan Martinez (11-2) and faces a half-foot reach disadvantage.
Ewell’s grappling issues have erased any hope I had of him being a top contender, but he’s still a unique and dangerous striker. That might just be enough to get him past “Mr. Highlight,” who got out-wrestled in his first two Octagon appearances despite his adeptness on the mat. “Dragon” will have all sorts of trouble dealing with Ewell’s range, and without a strong takedown assault to keep his man honest, he looks to be at the mercy of Ewell’s boxing.
Ewell could very well still lose this by ending up on his back for long stretches — I’ve overestimated him before and hold no illusions about his vulnerability on the ground. Still, between his length and striking prowess, I say he’s got this. He takes apart Martinez at long range to bump his Octagon record back over .500.
Prediction: Ewell via unanimous decision
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Up Next! ‘Bones’ Battles ‘Devastator’ In Houston!

145 lbs.: Austin Lingo vs. Youssef Zalal

Andrew Richardson here filling in for Patrick Stumberg for the following bout ...
A pair of last-second pick ups from Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) will join in on the fun at UFC 247, as this match was announced just a few days ago to bulk up the card after injuries left it a bit shorter than usual. At 25 years of age, Austin Lingo (7-0) has thus far lived up to his “Lights Out” moniker, as his last three victories came via stoppage in a grand total of 63 seconds. Meanwhile, Youssef Zalal (7-2) is actually just riding a single-fight win streak, but when that sole victory comes via flying knee knockout, it’s worth a bit extra.
Without over-complicating the situation too much, we have a pair of young prospects with finishing abilities both on the feet and on the mat. They’ve been fighting for roughly the same amount of time against a similar level of opposition, and both come from respected gyms (Fortis MMA and Factory X, respectively).
If you can pick this bout with any real confidence, you have access to better information than me.
Between the two, I like Lingo’s chances a bit more. At this point in their careers, he seems the more developed and complete overall fighter, and his penchant for ending fights in the opening minute gives him an additional edge.
Prediction: Lingo via technical knockout



185 lbs.: Trevin Giles vs. Antonio Arroyo

Trevin Giles (11-2) kicked off his UFC run with impressive knockouts of James Bochnovic and Antonio Braga Neto before taking a year off to pursue a career in law enforcement. Sailing hasn’t been quite as smooth since, as he succumbed to the submission skills of Zak Cummings and Gerald Meerschaert during his 2019 campaign.
His 10 finishes are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
A decision win on “Contender Series: Brazil” wasn’t enough to earn Antonio Arroyo (9-3) a UFC contract, but his subsequent submission of Stephen Regman on the vanilla version of the series did the trick. He debuted in Nov. 2019 against fellow Brazilian Andre Muniz, to whom he suffered his first defeat since 2017.
He is the taller man by two inches.
Giles’ fight with Meerschaert ranks among the more baffling gameplans I can recall. That’s because rather than exploit “GM3’s” leaky striking defense, Giles happily engaged him on the ground and wound up going to sleep for it. I still think he’ll win this, as his takedown prowess gives him the means to recreate Muniz’s successful efforts, but it does raise the possibility of Giles trying to one-up Arroyo in the Brazilian’s preferred long-range battle and getting kicked in the head.
So long as Giles can keep Arroyo on the back foot, he’s got the skills to win this comfortably. Perhaps against my better judgment, I’m going to say he keeps his head on straight and doesn’t make things difficult for himself. Stronger boxing and regular takedowns win Giles a wide decision.
Prediction: Giles via unanimous decision
Related
Watch ‘Countdown’ To UFC 247 Full Video

125 lbs.: Lauren Murphy vs. Andrea Lee

Lauren Murphy (11-4) — the former Invicta Bantamweight champion — started her Octagon career 1-3 before joining TUF 26 as a Flyweight. Though she lost in the opening round to eventual winner Nicco Montano, she went on to win two of three in her new weight class, including an Oct. 2019 knockout of Mara Romero Borella.
She’ll give up 2.5 inches of reach to “KGB.”
Andrea Lee (11-3) entered Invicta as a red-hot prospect, only for Roxanne Modafferi and Sarah D’Alelio to take advantage of her grappling inexperience. She put the losses behind her to win her next seven, including three in the Octagon, before dropping a narrow split decision to Joanne Calderwood at UFC 242.
Three of her four submission victories have come by armbar.
Had these two fought during Lee’s time in Invicta or early in “KGB’s” Octagon career, Murphy would have been a live dog. Though she struggles to impose her grinding grappling assault against top opposition, she could very well have shut down her dynamic foe against the cage or from guard. Considering Lee’s improved wrestling and ability to get up once taken down, though, that window has closed. Murphy will have all sorts of problems keeping hold of Lee, leaving her at the mercy of a rangier, more effective kickboxer.
Lee isn’t immune to being taken down, of course, but I don’t see Murphy doing enough in semi-dominant positions to offset the damage Lee can do on the feet. Lee’s speed and length carry her to a competitive decision victory,
Prediction: Lee via unanimous decision
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Alex Morono vs. Kalinn Williams

Andrew Richardson here filling in for Patrick Stumberg for the following bout ...
Nine-fight UFC veteran Alex Morono (17-5) has proven himself a pretty consistent action fighter. The Texan is not the most athletic or technically masterful fighter to ever grace the Octagon, but he’s got plenty of tricks up his sleeve and is plenty tough. In fact, Morono really seems to have hit his stride, having won three straight bouts ahead of this match up.
Filling in for an injured Dhiego Lima is “The Oxfighter,” who’s built up a solid record for himself and finished five of his nine victories. Kalinn Williams (9-1) has a good mix of submissions and knockouts on his record, but this will be a serious step up in competition for the Michigan-native.
Morono is not an easy debut opponent. Even when faced with foes with an athleticism advantage over him, Moreno is usually able to turn the tide with raw intensity and determination — and that’s ignoring his jiu-jitsu black belt and improved punching power. Meanwhile, Williams has defeated just four opponents with winning records, and all but one of those victories came via decision.
It seems likely that he needs to catch Morono to win, and “The Great White” is too damn tough to fall over easily.
Prediction: Alex Morono via unanimous decision
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Reyes Wants UFC Gold More Than Win Over Jones

135 lbs.: Miles Johns vs. Mario Bautista

Miles Johns (10-0) — the LFA Bantamweight champion — failed to finish Richie Santiago on “Contender Series,” but impressed enough to earn a contract anyway. His Octagon debut saw him take on fellow unbeaten prospect Cole Smith in a back-and-forth ground battle, from which Johns emerged with a split decision.
“Chapo” faces a six-inch reach disadvantage.
Mario Bautista (7-1) stepped up on short notice to face the red-hot Cory Sandhagen in his Octagon debut, tapping to an armbar late in the first round. His sophomore effort went a bit better, as he successfully out-brawled Korean bruiser Jin Soo Son in San Antonio to win “Fight of the Night.”
He has finished five professional opponents, three of them by submission.
Bautista’s grit and aggression are undeniable, but this is looks like a seriously rough out. His wrestling struggles with Son bode ill against a takedown artist of Johns’ caliber, and I’m not convinced he can keep Johns at bay despite the reach advantage. He’s inevitably going to end up on his back, and he’ll find Johns a fair bit more difficult to dislodge than Son.
This is Johns’ fight to lose ... so long as he doesn’t fall into a slugfest and neglect his wrestling, he should be able to cruise to victory with strong top control. “Chapo” holds his own on the feet and dominates on the mat to make it 2-0 in the Octagon.
Prediction: Johns via unanimous decision

[Hugo de Naranja]

Liking Jones -5.5 and not much else. Anything big that I'm missing?

[turbozed]

Liking Jones -5.5 and not much else. Anything big that I'm missing?

I guess Morono at opening odds around -170 was the big value line of the card. I ended up getting in at around -200.

Think there's still some value on the under at + odds. Williams bad cardio and on one week's notice. Seems to have a huge positional grappling disadvantage and will panic wrestle when uncomfortable on the feet.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I guess Morono at opening odds around -170 was the big value line of the card. I ended up getting in at around -200.

Think there's still some value on the under at + odds. Williams bad cardio and on one week's notice. Seems to have a huge positional grappling disadvantage and will panic wrestle when uncomfortable on the feet.

I'll look into it thanks Turbo

[BIGDAY]

It’s FIGHT NIGHT!!!

[unlearn]

God what a shitty card. How are the 2 fat ass scrubs 3rd fight on a 2 champ ppv? Embarrassing

[BIGDAY]

God what a shitty card. How are the 2 fat ass scrubs 3rd fight on a 2 champ ppv? Embarrassing

Kind of agree. Sub par overall card imo.

[WRMusic]

Liking Jones -5.5 and not much else. Anything big that I'm missing?

Hugo, (typing this part because I know that reading messages on a screen and not hearing someone’s voice when they’re talking to you; it can sometimes make somebody “sound” like they’re being a smart @$$, and I’m genuinely just asking the following question...as sincere as possible

When you say “Jones -5.5” what exactly does that (-5.5) mean? I would obviously know what it meant if it were used in reference to another sport (as in point totals...) but I’ve never seen it used before when discussing MMA. Thanks in advance for helping me understand this, and BOL tonight!

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes Picks:
Austin Lingo Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Andre Ewell Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Domingo Pilarte Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Miles Johns Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Alex Morono Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Andrea Lee Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
James Krause Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Derrick Lewis Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Dan Ige Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Juan Adams Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Valentina Shevchenko Unanimous Decision
Jon Jones Unanimous Decision (50-45, 49-46 x2)

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo, (typing this part because I know that reading messages on a screen and not hearing someone’s voice when they’re talking to you; it can sometimes make somebody “sound” like they’re being a smart @$$, and I’m genuinely just asking the following question...as sincere as possible

When you say “Jones -5.5” what exactly does that (-5.5) mean? I would obviously know what it meant if it were used in reference to another sport (as in point totals...) but I’ve never seen it used before when discussing MMA. Thanks in advance for helping me understand this, and BOL tonight!

Jones -5.5 wins if Jones wins by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission (so any victory inside the distance) OR if Jones wins a decision that has at least 6 points to difference. For instance, 50-45 card is worth 5 points, a 49-46 card is worth 3 points and a 48-47 card is worth 1 point. So if he won a (49-46 x2, 48-47) decision that would get him 7 difference points and cover the -5.5. If he won a (48-47 x3) decision that would get him 3 difference points and not cover the spread. It's basically a way of getting a discount on the Jones price and will only lose in a Jones win if he barely scrapes out a decision.

[sweep]

Jon Jones by finish +120

Does this include sub ?

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

God what a shitty card. How are the 2 fat ass scrubs 3rd fight on a 2 champ ppv? Embarrassing

don't fat shame bruh!

[boss_of_um]

Does this include sub ?

Yup!