UFC on ESPN+ 22: Blachowicz vs. Jacare (November 16, 2019)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 22: Jacare vs. Blachowicz Picks:
Tracy Cortez Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Ariane Lipski Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Douglas Silva de Andrade Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Warlley Alves Round 2 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Francisco Trinaldo Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Ricardo Ramos Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
James Krause Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Markus Perez Round 1 Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Andre Muniz Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Charles Oliveira Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Shogun Rua Round 1 KO (Punches)
Jacare Souza Round 1 Submission (Kimura)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 22: Jacare vs. Blachowicz

ESPN+ Prelims:

Fight #1: Cortez (DEBUT) vs. Melo
No Bet

Fight #2: Lipski vs. De Padua (DEBUT)
No Bet

Fight #3: Silva de Andrade vs. Barao
No Bet

Fight #4: W. Alves vs. Brown
No Bet

Fight #5: Trinaldo vs. Green
No Bet

Fight #6: R. Ramos vs. Garagorri
Parlays

Fight #7: Krause vs. S. Moraes
No Bet

Main Card:

Fight #8: M. Perez vs. Turman
M. Perez ITD (+365) 0.5u

Fight #9: Muniz (DEBUT) vs. Arroyo (DEBUT)
No Bet

Fight #10: C. Oliveira vs. Gordon
C. Oliveira Submission (-126) 1.26u to win 1u

Fight #11: Rua vs. Craig
Rua KO/TKO (-121) 1.51u to win 1.25u

Fight #12: J. Souza vs. Blachowicz
J. Souza Scorecards = No Action (+175) 1.5u

Straight Parlays:
None

Prop Parlays:
R. Ramos/C. Oliveira+Gordon WGD (-110) 1.1u to win 1u

Full Card Props:
None

Multi-Event Parlays:
None

[Sanity Check]

Veronica Macedo's replacement has a wrestling based style btw.

Ariane Lipski has had trouble with wrestlers in the past.

Don't be too quick to assume Lipski has an advantage here.

.

Macedo was on a week notice to replace Cachoeria for the Lipski fight. There's nothing shady about a girl taking a short notice fight and trying so hard to make weight that it affected her health. Smart of her to pull out. She's got a fight in December.

It could be a bit shady.

For reasons you might not understand.

[Thrilla]

Trinaldo - Green

Nice introduction here both looking for a finish coming off controversial judging losses.

Wrestle/scramble fest in R1. Snoozefest in R2.

[Sanity Check]

Trinaldo vs Green.

The significant/total strikes guy way off yet again.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Added:
Rua+Craig WGD/NOT Blachowicz ITD (+108) 1u

[JAKEPEAVY21]

What a 1st round by the bear jew wow

[Hugo de Naranja]

Live Betting:
Rua (-120) 0.6u to win 0.5u after R2

[boss_of_um]

Split Draw in Brazil? FFS!

[Sanity Check]

Shogun vs Craig.

Split draw.

Shady as fk.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hellacious judging there. Clear 2-1 Shogun

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

number one bullshet

[JAKEPEAVY21]

split draw wow

Craig's stand up improved quite a bit

[Hugo de Naranja]

Added:
J. Souza+Blachowicz Goes Distance (+200) 0.5u
J. Souza Round 1 (+500) 0.25u

[Sanity Check]

Will judges score Jacare on better position.

After 100% disregarding Shogun's 2 rounds of solid control?

[boss_of_um]

Neither one of these fighters deserve another fight anytime soon. SNOOZE FEST!

[freelee]

I don't understand how the judge could possibly get it to 28-28 how was there a 10-8 round?

[Thrilla]

gay

[bjpenn85]

Shogun vs Craig.

Split draw.

Shady as fk.

I think we see more and more that home cooking doesnt always play a role. I think that they scored a 10-8 for Craig in round 1. Its def wrong but there you see how the judging doesnt necessarily help brazilian fighters in brazil.

But a fight where the crowd def played its roll was under the green and trinaldo. Fans shouting and screaming for everything trinaldo did, and i felt that swayed the judges like leaves on a windy day. So these hometown decisions play a role...i think, but their more and more confined to some fighters with big following rather than being a default pattern to all fighters from one country.

Do you feel me?

This is the new trend as i see it at least for the autumn 2019.

Why did gamzatow win in russia, but the next fight tony martin wins a close dec?

So home cooking works for the right guy. Before all fights in canada went to the canadian fighter or the brazilian fighter in Brazil.

Its doesnt seem to be like this any longer.

[Sanity Check]

I think we see more and more that home cooking doesnt always play a role. I think that they scored a 10-8 for Craig in round 1. Its def wrong but there you see how the judging doesnt necessarily help brazilian fighters in brazil.

But a fight where the crowd def played its roll was under the green and trinaldo. Fans shouting and screaming for everything trinaldo did, and i felt that swayed the judges like leaves on a windy day. So these hometown decisions play a role...i think, but their more and more confined to some fighters with big following rather than being a default pattern to all fighters from one country.

Do you feel me?

This is the new trend as i see it at least for the autumn 2019.

Why did gamzatow win in russia, but the next fight tony martin wins a close dec?

So home cooking works for the right guy. Before all fights in canada went to the canadian fighter or the brazilian fighter in Brazil.

Its doesnt seem to be like this any longer.

What you're seeing more of...

...Is corrupt athletic commissions and judges utilizing different methods to sabotage the most heavily bet favorites on cards.

That's how you explain Greg Hardy's inhaler. Et al.

[bjpenn85]

What you're seeing more of...

...Is corrupt athletic commissions and judges utilizing different methods to sabotage the most heavily bet favorites on cards.

That's how you explain Greg Hardy's inhaler. Et al.

Im not sure what youre insinuating here. I think the variance is there i just think it has different explanations. If i get your point you mean that all of these bad calls come from the same source, or same method. Kurupt judges who are paid go for the underdogs in close matchups?

Im not sure i get youre point, help me out

[Sanity Check]

Im not sure what youre insinuating here. I think the variance is there i just think it has different explanations. If i get your point you mean that all of these bad calls come from the same source, or same method. Kurupt judges who are paid go for the underdogs in close matchups?

Im not sure i get youre point, help me out

Do you bet sports other than MMA?

Have you noticed how games, in for example in the NFL, are being determined more by athletic commissions and referees than they are by the actual players in the game? And how there are significantly worse calls being made for things that never even happened.

There should be no need for me to explain this.


Judges in MMA are like senators and congressman. There are no term limits. You see the same names and faces judging nearly every event. And perhaps even less accountability and transparency.

[bjpenn85]

Do you bet sports other than MMA?

Have you noticed how games, in for example in the NFL, are being determined more by athletic commissions and referees than they are by the actual players in the game? And how there are significantly worse calls being made for things that never even happened.

There should be no need for me to explain this.


Judges in MMA are like senators and congressman. There are no term limits. You see the same names and faces judging nearly every event. And perhaps even less accountability and transparency.

So the judges are paid in your opinion. Does that explain all the weird decisions?

[Sanity Check]

So the judges are paid in your opinion. Does that explain all the weird decisions?

#1 It is known that investment bankers recently began buying up sports gambling establishments and are working towards centralizing the market. You should be able to find news stories on this via search engine.

#2 It is known that doctors routinely take kickback $$ from pharmaceutical companies to over-prescribe certain medications. This is something doctors have been tried and convicted for. Its something that could be a standard practice in many industries.

#3 Based on #1 and #2 factor the probability of MMA judges taking kickback money to help books run by wallstreet investment bankers.


What this means is I might start selecting the draw prop in heavily bet matches & adjusting accordingly.

[bjpenn85]

#1 It is known that investment bankers recently began buying up sports gambling establishments and are working towards centralizing the market. You should be able to find news stories on this via search engine.

#2 It is known that doctors routinely take kickback $$ from pharmaceutical companies to over-prescribe certain medications. This is something doctors have been tried and convicted for. Its something that could be a standard practice in many industries.

#3 Based on #1 and #2 factor the probability of MMA judges taking kickback money to help books run by wallstreet investment bankers.


What this means is I might start selecting the draw prop in heavily bet matches & adjusting accordingly.

point 1 is absolutely true. point 2 is also true and i guess the analogy is quite good.

Norway (the norwegian oil fund) and other large corporations do invest because its such a profitable business model.

But Craig vs Rua can be explained by Craigs first round scored 10-8 more than simply corruption. Im totally on board with what youre saying here, but i struggle to get the puzzle to fit with that decision for instance.

How do you see it work, some representative or dude pay officials to score the fight in favour of a fighter, but then it ends up in a draw with two judges score it draw while one one having it for shogun....does it rhyme or not rhyme with the theory of payed officials in your opinion in this specific incident?

[Sanity Check]

How do you see it work, some representative or dude pay officials to score the fight in favour of a fighter, but then it ends up in a draw with two judges score it draw while one one having it for shogun....does it rhyme or not rhyme with the theory of payed officials in your opinion in this specific incident?

See if you notice a pattern here.

-Betting favorite Macy Chiasson derailed could have thrown that fight against Lina Lansberg.

-Betting favorite Michel Pereira derailed unable to cut weight properly due to his coaches being denied travel visas.

-Betting favorite Greg Hardy derailed uses an inhaler overturning his win over Ben Sosoli.

-Betting favorite Shogun Rua derailed. I think a lot of people bet on Paul Craig as well. A draw here saves books from paying out both sides.

Books lose $$ if all of the fights I mentioned happen without some strange type of interference.

Like they say follow the money.

[Thrilla]

[bjpenn85]

See if you notice a pattern here.

-Betting favorite Macy Chiasson derailed could have thrown that fight against Lina Lansberg.

-Betting favorite Michel Pereira derailed unable to cut weight properly due to his coaches being denied travel visas.

-Betting favorite Greg Hardy derailed uses an inhaler overturning his win over Ben Sosoli.

-Betting favorite Shogun Rua derailed. I think a lot of people bet on Paul Craig as well. A draw here saves books from paying out both sides.

Books lose $$ if all of the fights I mentioned happen without some strange type of interference.

Like they say follow the money.

I believe you, in bigger fight is where they probably scam us. Where the bookies losses are the largest. I do think that these examples you put up isnt really impressive. Could easily be just by chance. Doesnt mean your wrong. Chiassons wrestling just sucks. And Greg Hardy situation seems like a very random event.

Shogun could actually loose that 1.round 10-8 so it seems that a lot of those incidents you put up have natural explanations.

That being said, its more likely that they are kurupt. And it is the total sum of all of the events that is taking place which largely moves me in that direction rather than a couple of faulty dec here and there.

Thats their advantage, not being transparent, not being interested in a change. A closed system, where they have the control to do what they want. Its toxic and over time such a system may take deals, as know one will punish them. A bit like the bookies

[PaperTrail07]

Adelaide byrd Continues to judge

Do you bet sports other than MMA?

Have you noticed how games, in for example in the NFL, are being determined more by athletic commissions and referees than they are by the actual players in the game? And how there are significantly worse calls being made for things that never even happened.

There should be no need for me to explain this.


Judges in MMA are like senators and congressman. There are no term limits. You see the same names and faces judging nearly every event. And perhaps even less accountability and transparency.

[bjpenn85]

Also doug crossby. Theres a lot of the same names. This starts to get really spicey. Its a little don mafioso club who just sit there and take money for decisions.

How much money doesnt those few bastards cost us yearly? Why doesnt Dana white put pressure on these judges. He sits there pretty quietly and watch them run this circus. I know they are sent from the state that he doesnt govern any power of them directly. But if youre a billionaire with almost infinite amount of money, and youre the president of a company the size of UFC, why dont you use those powers to fakking strangle them.

Im afraid he cant do a shit, but i dont understand how he cant!!

We see a lot of money goes to alterations of policies in politics from "currupt" companies, politic institutions etc. Why cant he take some money out of his pockets and put the pressure one these corrupts individuals from state commissions who basically should have no real power to fakk up a whole sport without getting any blame for it.

Fakk this fakked up world!

[PaperTrail07]

I mean I def look into judges but its hard to find the fix.....Sal D'amato only judges strikes....take downs and control mean nothing to him....so that helps.....its controlled by the inside out and the UFC HAS to let it go.....they don't pick the judges and they don't want to attack the state that allows the fights ect...It reminds me of the movie casino when DeNiro wont let the dumb penetrate work there anymore....well OK then this will be bad for you...know your place.....

Also doug crossby. Theres a lot of the same names. This starts to get really spicey. Its a little don mafioso club who just sit there and take money for decisions.

How much money doesnt those few bastards cost us yearly? Why doesnt Dana white put pressure on these judges. He sits there pretty quietly and watch them run this circus. I know they are sent from the state that he doesnt govern any power of them directly. But if youre a billionaire with almost infinite amount of money, and youre the president of a company the size of UFC, why dont you use those powers to fakking strangle them.

Im afraid he cant do a shit, but i dont understand how he cant!!

We see a lot of money goes to alterations of policies in politics from "currupt" companies, politic institutions etc. Why cant he take some money out of his pockets and put the pressure one these corrupts individuals from state commissions who basically should have no real power to fakk up a whole sport without getting any blame for it.

Fakk this fakked up world!

[bjpenn85]

I mean I def look into judges but its hard to find the fix.....Sal D'amato only judges strikes....take downs and control mean nothing to him....so that helps.....its controlled by the inside out and the UFC HAS to let it go.....they don't pick the judges and they don't want to attack the state that allows the fights ect...It reminds me of the movie casino when DeNiro wont let the dumb penetrate work there anymore....well OK then this will be bad for you...know your place.....

Maybe they wont cause any trouble with the state, that might be a good reason.

[Sanity Check]

How much money doesnt those few bastards cost us yearly? Why doesnt Dana white put pressure on these judges. He sits there pretty quietly and watch them run this circus.

Don't forget, Dana is the only promoter in the industry who gets upset when fighters are robbed. The problem is, no one else cares.

If books ever succeed in pissing me off.

I'll release picks for free/cheap and make it a personal goal to see how much $$ I can make THEM lose. That's all I can say.

[PaperTrail07]

Bro if you have some wild ROI % with wins all over.....please let that personal goal kick in now....LOL.....They will be fine JUUUUST FINE....place yours first if your worried about market moving against you lol

Don't forget, Dana is the only promoter in the industry who gets upset when fighters are robbed. The problem is, no one else cares.

If books ever succeed in pissing me off.

I'll release picks for free/cheap and make it a personal goal to see how much $$ I can make THEM lose. That's all I can say.