UFC on ESPN+ 21: Zabit vs. Kattar (November 09, 2019)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 2:00 pm ET
Zabit Magomedsharipov vs Calvin Kattar
Greg Hardy vs Alexander Volkov
Zelim Imadaev vs Danny Roberts
Ed Herman vs Khadis Ibragimov
Ramazan Emeev vs Anthony Rocco Martin
Klidson Abreu vs Shamil Gamzatov

ESPN+ 11:00 am ET
Magomed Ankalaev vs Dalcha Lungiambula
Rustam Khabilov vs Sergey Khandozhko
Roman Kopylov vs Karl Roberson
Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs David Zawada
Roosevelt Roberts vs Alexander Yakovlev
Jessica-Rose Clark vs Pannie Kianzad
Davey Grant vs Grigorii Popov

[Unwritten Law]

Initial leans on Kattar and Volkov.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Couple good fights on this card but generally don't love it for betting.

[unlearn]

Why isnt Volkov -800?

[Pinoy-T-X]

Why isnt Volkov -800?

Because Hardy has the same punchers chance as Lewis when he KO’d Volkov.

[bjpenn85]

Couple good fights on this card but generally don't love it for betting.

0 bets here. unbettable

[Pinoy-T-X]

Initial leans on Kattar and Volkov.

I’m on the other side, but GL brother

[bjpenn85]

Initial leans on Kattar and Volkov.

Zabit is smart and cerebral, he will just avoid getting hit i think. Kattar isnt really a smart fighter. He only use heads strikes and is super dependant on having a boxing fight. He wont get it. Bad matchup. You need a Kattar KO, should just play the prop instead.

[PaperTrail07]

Ill take a stab a Yakovlev Should be a pickem fight IMO

[Hugo de Naranja]

Note that this is a Three Round Main Event instead of the usual five.

[unlearn]

Because Hardy has the same punchers chance as Lewis when he KO’d Volkov.

Who has Hardy ever KOd standing?

[Pinoy-T-X]

Who has Hardy ever KOd standing?

His Ex-Girlfriend

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups -




170 lbs.: Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs. David Zawada

Abubakar Nurmagomedov — (15-2-1) cousin of Welterweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov — claimed five consecutive victories in World Series of Fighting (WSOF) before suffering an upset submission loss to +820 underdog Pavel Kusch in his first PFL tournament appearance. A decision win over Jonatan Westin followed, though a hand injury forced him out of the playoffs after his subsequent two-round draw with UFC veteran Bojan Velickovic.
His only prior defeat came via cut stoppage against current rising Lightweight Magomed Mustafaev.
David Zawada (16-5) brought a five-fight win streak into his late-notice Octagon debut, which saw him fight Danny Roberts to a “Fight of the Night” split decision in Hamburg. He returned to action four months later against Li Jingliang, dropping “The Leech” early but ultimately succumbing to a body kick in the final minute.
Eleven of his 14 stoppage wins have come via (technical) knockout.
Abubakar is not Khabib. He’s a more polished striker and has the lovely takedowns you’d expect, but lacks the inexorable pressure, freakish chain wrestling, or earth-shaking ground-and-pound that plant “The Eagle” among the greatest fighters in UFC history. He’s still a very solid and well-rounded contender with the skills to sneak into the Top 15 — just don’t watch him with over-high expectations.
Zawada — while extremely entertaining and the superior finisher of the two — doesn’t have enough power or takedown defense to keep Nurmagomedov from riding out a win from top position. Nurmagomedov has been dropped and tapped before, so there’s enough intrigue to make it worth watching, but odds are that the younger Nurmagomedov grinds his way to a comfortable victory.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov via unanimous decision
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Location Sent

155 lbs.: Alexander Yakovlev vs. Roosevelt Roberts

Alexander vs. Yakovlev (25-9-1) wasn’t especially thunderous in his first Octagon appearances, dropping four of six to the likes of Demian Maia and Kamaru Usman before sitting out all of 2017 and 2018. This past April, “Thunder of the North” returned to Lightweight — where he’d beaten Gray Maynard — to choke out late replacement Alex da Silva in St. Petersburg.
He has knocked out and submitted nine professional foes apiece.
Roosevelt Roberts (8-1) choked out Garrett Gross on “Contender Series” to secure a UFC contract, then followed that up with a bonus-winning guillotine of Darrell Horcher and a decision over Thomas Gifford. A step-up bout with Vinc Pichel didn’t quite work out, as the heavy underdog survived a tough first round to out-wrestle Roberts en route to a decision.
He steps in for the aforementioned Pichel on around three weeks’ notice.
Full disclosure: I generally can’t pick a Yakovlev fight to save me life. Sometimes he’s a suffocating grappling powerhouse with sneaky punching power, sometimes he’s getting manhandled by guys who really shouldn’t be able to manhandle him. I expect more of the former down at Lightweight, which is what makes this interesting — Roberts is a good prospect, but had serious issues with the physically imposing Pichel, surrendering takedowns as the fight progressed.
If Yakovlev comes in looking like he did against a hotshot in da Silva, he’s got a legit shot at the upset, especially since Roberts won’t have his customary height advantage. Then again, Yakovlev does have some issues with his offensive wrestling and Roberts’ guillotine is absolutely lethal. It’s a coin flip and the universe will conspire to make me look stupid no matter my pick, but I say Roberts finds Yakovlev’s neck late in the first.
Prediction: Roberts via first-round submission
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135 lbs.: Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Pannie Kianzad

Despite being just two bouts removed from a two-fight skid, Jessica-Rose Clark (9-5) kicked off her UFC career with consecutive wins over notable figures in Bec Rawlings and Paige VanZant. Jessica Eye proved too much for her in her third Octagon effort, though, beating the Aussie by decision in Singapore.
A failed weight cut and a foot injury make this her first fight in more than 16 months.
Pannie Kianzad (11-5) — whose initial undefeated (8-0) run included a win over Clark in Invicta — hit a three-fight skid afterward, but eventually found herself in the finals of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 28. She tapped to a Macy Chiasson rear-naked choke in said finals, then lost a decision to Julia Avila after picking up a win on the Swedish circuit.
“Banzai” is two inches taller than Clark and will have a three-inch reach advantage.
Bit of an “overachiever vs. underachiever” match up we’ve got here. Clark’s been doing far better than her record would suggest, while Kianzad has long failed to recapture the success she found during her unbeaten run. What complicates the narrative is that Clark was “doing better than her record would suggest” against Flyweights, while Kianzad’s big enough to do alright for herself at 145 pounds.
Both the striking and the wrestling look to be a dead heat skill-wise, meaning Kianzad’s physical edges will likely be the deciding factor. “Banzai” uses her height, length and strength to edge out what’s primarily a striking battle but could feature a bit of ground work.
Prediction: Kianzad via unanimous decision
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135 lbs.: Grigorii Popov vs. Davey Grant

A 10-fight win streak led Tiger Muay Thai’s Grigorii Popov (14-3) to an Octagon debut against former World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) champion Eddie Wineland at UFC 238. The two wound up putting on a war, with Wineland ultimately putting away the Russian with punches late in the second round.
He’ll give up one inch each of height and reach to Davey Grant (10-4).
A long string of misfortune has held Grant to just three fights since his loss to Chris Holdsworth at TUF 18 Finale in Nov. 2013. He enters the cage for the first time since July 2018 on the heels of submission losses to Damian Stasiak and Manny Bermudez.
His eight professional submissions have all come by choke.
If these two both come in in peak condition, this is Grant’s fight by a landslide. Popov is a terrible wrestler who’s been controlled on the mat by exponentially inferior grapplers than “Dangerous” Davey. That’s not a good assumption to make, though; between Grant’s injury-induced inactivity and fellow finalist Holdsworth’s concussion-induced retirement, I’m pretty sure that season was just cursed somehow.
Luckily for the 33-year-old Brit, even a shell of his former self should be too much. He’s never been stopped by strikes and his greatest struggles have come against stronger grapplers, which Popov decidedly is not. Grant drags him to the mat in the opening minutes and gets right to the chokin.’
Prediction: Grant via first-round submission



205 lbs.: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Dalcha Lungiambula

A destructive run on the Russian circuit made Magomed Ankalaev (11-1) more than a -700 favorite in his Octagon debut, only for Paul Craig to tap him with a literal last-second triangle. He bounced back with a head kick finish of Marcin Prachnio six months later, then defeated Brazilian prospect Klidson Abreu in his first trip to the judges since 2016.
He stands five inches taller than Dalcha Lungiambula (10-1) at 6’3.”
“Champion Dalcha” lived up to his moniker by claiming both the Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight EFC titles during a five-fight win streak. This earned him a spot in the Octagon, where he knocked out late replacement Dequan Townsend in Minneapolis. F
our of his last six wins have come by form of knockout.
UFC has now booked Ankalaev against then-prospect Darko Stosic, the aforementioned Abreu, and now Lungiambula. In a division this starved for interesting contenders, I can’t see the logic in feeding so many potential candidates to Ankalaev.
Not that Lungiambula doesn’t have a chance — dude has some serious pop in his hands and slick judo chops to back that up. Unfortunately, the stylistic match up is just all wrong for him. He’ll struggle badly to get through his far rangier foe’s kicking game and the issues he had with takedown defense in a recent bout suggest bad things against someone with ground-and-pound this nasty. Ankalaev tears him up at long distance before dragging him to the mat and pounding away.
Prediction: Ankalaev via second-round technical knockout
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170 lbs.: Rustam Khabilov vs. Sergey Khandozhko

Rustam Khabilov’s (23-4) submission loss to Benson Henderson in his first main event, followed by a split decision defeat against Adriano Martins, gave way to a six-fight win streak that set up a clash with fellow contender Diego Ferreira. Despite scoring a trio of takedowns, Khabilov ultimately fell short, losing a decision to the Brazilian in Prague.
This will be his UFC Welterweight debut.
Sergey Khandozhko (27-5-1) started his pro mixed martial arts (MMA) career 21-1-1 before spending his next seven fights alternating losses and wins. He got back on track last year with a pair of finishes, then outlasted Rostem Akman to claim victory in his Octagon debut.
He’s knocked out 12 opponents and submitted another seven.
My first thought upon seeing this match up was, “Oh hey, guy who hits lots of takedowns versus guy who gets taken down a lot.” Khandozhko’s greatest struggles have come against tenacious wrestlers, and while Khabilov may have become hideously boring to watch ever since the Henderson loss, he’s nothing if not persistent. If he can consistently get in on Khandozhko’s hips, he’s happy to exploit that weakness all night.
The point of concern is the weight class. Indeed, we’ve seen Khabilov struggle to overpower people he should have physically dominated, and now he’ll have to out-muscle opponents 15 pounds larger. Still, between the huge wrestling edge and the fact that Khandozhko can’t unleash his wildest kickboxing tricks without leaving himself open to takedowns, this looks like a comfortable win for Khabilov.
Prediction: Khabilov via unanimous decision
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185 lbs. Roman Kopylov vs. Karl Roberson

A multiple-time world hand-to-hand combat champion, Roman Kopylov (8-) battered Abusupyan Alikhanov into submission to claim the Fight Night Global Middleweight title in March 2018. His first defense saw him put veteran Yasubey Enomoto away with a body shot for his seventh consecutive (technical) knockout.
This will be his first fight in little more than 10 months thanks to injury scrapping a planned April debut against Krzysztof Jotko.
Karl Roberson (8-2) made the first-ever “Contender Series” main event a memorable one by smashing Ryan Spann with elbows in just 15 seconds, earning a contract in the progress. An undefeated (2-0) Octagon start gave way to a 1-2 skid, though “Baby K” was last seen taking a split decision over Wellington Turman in July.
Despite his kickboxing background, he’s submitted three opponents while knocking out two.
Kopylov is an excellent acquisition for UFC, an entertaining and highly skilled striker in the midst of his prime, and this is a similarly excellent test for his Octagon debut. Roberson has some kickboxing credentials of his own and has yet to have any real difficulties on the feet during his UFC tenure, instead facing his greatest adversity against strong top control artists.
I’ve never seen Kopylov try a takedown and he’s got more than enough defensive wrestling to shrug off Roberson’s grappling, so we’re in for a stand up war. I ever-so-slightly favor Kopylov’s crisper hands and superior stopping power. Roberson will give him everything he could handle and may sway a judge, but expect Kopylov to land enough notable blows to edge out the win.
Prediction: Kopylov via split decision

[PaperTrail07]

WHY? LOL...thanks for that INFO though....very odd IMO....both could go 5 easy.

Note that this is a Three Round Main Event instead of the usual five.

[PaperTrail07]

Ankalev was my jam until it raced to -420 LOL.......my god....

[bjpenn85]

WHY? LOL...thanks for that INFO though....very odd IMO....both could go 5 easy.

According to Kattar they didnt want it. Obviously because it favours Zabit. They dont want to grapple for 5 rounds, when they can collect the same paycheck for only 3 rounds.

Just shows you how much more likely it is that Zabit wins this fight. To land KO shot with someone whos not willing to trade, its really hard.

[JIBBBY]

Early start time again ... Hate that crap...

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Early start time again ... Hate that crap...

love it, to each their own...

[PaperTrail07]

100% agree LOVE IT

love it, to each their own...

[PaperTrail07]

right---unreal--don't want it---too bad fellas the show MUST go on....lol...man....5 rounds is SO much different....

According to Kattar they didnt want it. Obviously because it favours Zabit. They dont want to grapple for 5 rounds, when they can collect the same paycheck for only 3 rounds.

Just shows you how much more likely it is that Zabit wins this fight. To land KO shot with someone whos not willing to trade, its really hard.

[Thrilla]

Event Background

UFC Fight Night: Magomedsharipov vs. Kattar (also known as UFC Fight Night 163 and UFC on ESPN+ 21) is an upcoming mixed martial arts event produced by the Ultimate Fighting Championship that is planned to take place on November 9, 2019 at CSKA Arena in Moscow, Russia.^[1][2][3]

A heavyweight bout between Junior dos Santos and former Bellator Heavyweight Champion Alexander Volkov was scheduled to serve as the event headliner.^[4] However, dos Santos pulled out of the matchup on October 22, citing a bacterial infection in his leg.^[5] Greg Hardy was announced as the replacement on the same day, moving this bout down into the co-main event slot.^[6]

A featherweight bout between Zabit Magomedsharipov and Calvin Kattar was scheduled for UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Weidman. However, promotion officials then elected to instead reschedule the pairing for this event.^[7][8] In turn, after a change up in participants in the original main event, the pairing was elevated to serve as the three round headliner.^[6]

Vinc Pichel was linked to a bout with Alexander Yakovlev at the event. However, Pichel pulled out of the fight on October 24, citing an undisclosed injury and was replaced by Roosevelt Roberts.^[9]

A light heavyweight bout between Gadzhimurad Antigulov and Ed Herman was scheduled at the event. However, Antigulov was pulled from the bout for an undisclosed reason and he was replaced by Khadis Ibragimov.<sup>[10]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Fight_Night:_Magomedsharipov_vs._Kat tar</sup>

[JAKEPEAVY21]

100% agree LOVE IT

Shocking that a man like JIBBY who claims he is in such great shape, health nut etc does not wake up early to conquer the day.

[JIBBBY]

love it, to each their own...

I wake up to coffee and a solid breakfast and wanting to work out and cap other sports especially on the weekends..

Can't do that when betting on the UFC and waking up half way into the early prelim card.. I will lay all bets down on late Friday night though. That's right Jakey to each their own.. ..

[PaperTrail07]

Very Interesting when a card is so hard to call IMO...

Across the pond---thinking Roberson could get outboxed....Kopylov looks skilled on the feet just less power...jab is quick as F and his footwork is solid....reminds me of Stephen Thompson how he bounces and gets in and out...

Fading Short Fuse.....

Volkov big bet--Hardy is on the wrong end of the skills, size and reach here...he wins WOWZA....it means volkov got dumber....wrote him off after his loss to black beast but well see....Respect for hardy taking the fight....wanting the fight...

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Very Interesting when a card is so hard to call IMO...

Across the pond---thinking Roberson could get outboxed....Kopylov looks skilled on the feet just less power...jab is quick as F and his footwork is solid....reminds me of Stephen Thompson how he bounces and gets in and out...

Fading Short Fuse.....

Volkov big bet--Hardy is on the wrong end of the skills, size and reach here...he wins WOWZA....it means volkov got dumber....wrote him off after his loss to black beast but well see....Respect for hardy taking the fight....wanting the fight...

Volkov likely wins but Hardy does have that one shot KO power.

[PaperTrail07]

If Volkov didn't learn from the Lewis fight....it is what it is.......He appears to me to have every advantage possible......Hardy has the killer instinct, used to kick ass for no reason, and has KO power....pro bowler genetics.....BUT... I would just be blown away if Volkov didn't piece him up........

Volkov likely wins but Hardy does have that one shot KO power.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

If Volkov didn't learn from the Lewis fight....it is what it is.......He appears to me to have every advantage possible......Hardy has the killer instinct, used to kick ass for no reason, and has KO power....pro bowler genetics.....BUT... I would just be blown away if Volkov didn't piece him up........

What if hardy bum rushes him and goes berserker on him and turns it into a street fight? Volkov has shown that he can be put to sleep and Hardy has a lot more strength and athleticism than him. If anything, take a + money prop on Volkov. I learned my lesson numerous times not to bet heavy chalk on heavyweight fights..gl

[PaperTrail07]

Volkov will need to show his improvement and stay calm....and appreciate it but taking my chances.....

IMO its a fighter vs a brawler.....Volkov IM HOPING....is improved -its been a year since his embarrassment in the cage and its on his home turf......CIRCLE RIGHT LOL...hoping Volkov plays the point game in round 1 then gets aggressive....hardy will leave wide open shots as the fight goes longer....he is not ready for a war....

What if hardy bum rushes him and goes berserker on him and turns it into a street fight? Volkov has shown that he can be put to sleep and Hardy has a lot more strength and athleticism than him. If anything, take a + money prop on Volkov. I learned my lesson numerous times not to bet heavy chalk on heavyweight fights..gl

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Volkov will need to show his improvement and stay calm....and appreciate it but taking my chances.....

IMO its a fighter vs a brawler.....Volkov IM HOPING....is improved -its been a year since his embarrassment in the cage and its on his home turf......CIRCLE RIGHT LOL...hoping Volkov plays the point game in round 1 then gets aggressive....hardy will leave wide open shots as the fight goes longer....he is not ready for a war....

Fair enough gl

[PaperTrail07]

TYTY you too....Any other leans you have?

Fair enough gl

[JAKEPEAVY21]

TYTY you too....Any other leans you have?

Not really familiar with most of the fighters on the card tbh..

Was thinking of putting Zabit in a parlay but still mulling it over.

[PaperTrail07]

For sure-even if you do research ect-its a tough card with a lot of unknowns...like a few dogs tp put up a fight but not sure they'll get the W or if the price is enough.

.

Not really familiar with most of the fighters on the card tbh..

Was thinking of putting Zabit in a parlay but still mulling it over.

[Broxbomber]

Volkov likely wins but Hardy does have that one shot KO power.

To Papertrail, Hedge with Hardy RD 1 @ +650 if you are going big on Volkov.

[Pinoy-T-X]

Zabit
Hardy
Abreu

[Sanity Check]

Pannie Kianzad vs Jessica Rose Clark I in 2015.