UFC on ESPN+ 19: Joanna vs. Waterson (October 12, 2019)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 8:00 pm ET
Joana Jedrzejczyk vs Michelle Waterson
Kron Gracie vs Cub Swanson
Thomas Grifford vs Brok Weaver
Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas
Matt Frevola vs Luis Pena
Eryk Anders vs Gerald Meerschaert

ESPN+ 5:00 pm ET
Niko Price vs James Vick
Devin Clark vs Ryan Spann
Max Griffin vs Alex Morono
Tim Elliot vs Deiveson Figueiredo
Hector Aldana vs Miguel Baeza
Andrew Sanchez vs Marvin Vettori
JJ Aldrich vs Lauren Mueller
Andre Ewell vs Marlon Vera

[firekillex]

going to see what Kron Gracie is made of here... Cub losses to good grapplers , lets see if he can get another submission here and break into the top 10

also JJ should pick apart Waterson


sidenote: Vick vs Price is going to be fun

[Pinoy-T-X]

Vettori looks like close to a lock here.

[HurlSweatPants]

I just haven't been impressed at all w Bob Ross film. And he gets absolutely no credit for finishing Matt Winman, maybe in 2011 thats an impressive win, but the guy hadn't fought in almost 5 years.

Frevola isn't as talented physically, but he is well rounded and has made improvements in every fight that I have watched. In his last 2 fights he has displayed better striking both defensively and offensively. Line has move slightly but still seems playable.

[Teem]

Fuk it. I'm backing Cub here. Always been one of my favs.

[Pinoy-T-X]

Parlaying all the faves on the main card.

[Hugo de Naranja]

going to see what Kron Gracie is made of here... Cub losses to good grapplers , lets see if he can get another submission here and break into the top 10

also JJ should pick apart Waterson


sidenote: Vick vs Price is going to be fun

Agree with all of the above

[Pinoy-T-X]

Mackenzie Dern is fighting just four months after giving birth?! That is insane. If I was Ribas I’ll just keep punching her boob to make them milk come out. Joking aside, her hormones is still out of wack, it takes at least a 6-9 months after delivery to get back to high level training, know what I’m saying?

[Unwritten Law]

Big play will be on Kron Gracie. I don't think Cub will be able to handle the ground game Kron will bring as he should be able to land the takedowns, and he will submit him. He strung together a streak of KOs back in 2012-2013 and his last KO win was against Denis Siver. This is a steal of a line IMO. I capped this at Kron -300 so there's definitely value here despite laying some chalk.

[Pinoy-T-X]

Not sure how JJ is going to make weight after her boob job. PVZ moved up a weight class because of that.

[bjpenn85]

Big play will be on Kron Gracie. I don't think Cub will be able to handle the ground game Kron will bring as he should be able to land the takedowns, and he will submit him. He strung together a streak of KOs back in 2012-2013 and his last KO win was against Denis Siver. This is a steal of a line IMO. I capped this at Kron -300 so there's definitely value here despite laying some chalk.

I couldnt really assess his wrestling, but i noticed in the cecares fight that he had to jump on Cecares to get him down. He wasnt able to take him down. Cub is pretty good fighting for underhooks, and if Gracies wrestling sucks, which i dont know anything about, but i suspect it. Because BJJ practitioners have a tendency to have poor wrestling. This fight may get a little bit spicy if he cant get it to the ground.

Steal of a line it is, if you can be sure he get the fight to the ground, but how sure are you really of this, based on anything youve seen on tape from Gracie?

Im not telling youre wrong, i just dont know....

[Thrilla]

Gotta try Waterson at these odds. Turbozed check in and give us your take, o WMMA pimp daddy.

[Thrilla]

Event Background

UFC Fight Night: Jędrzejczyk vs. Waterson (also known as UFC Fight Night 161 or UFC on ESPN+ 19) is an upcoming mixed martial arts event produced by the Ultimate Fighting Championship that is planned to take place on October 12, 2019 at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida.^[1][2][3]

While not officially announced by the organization, the event was initially linked to the newly constructed Chase Center in San Francisco, California, which would have marked the promotion's first visit to the city. It would have also been the first trip to the Bay Area since UFC 117 in 2010.^[4][5] However, the plans for a San Francisco debut fizzled and the promotion confirmed that the event would instead take place in Tampa, Florida.^[6] The event will mark the promotion's third visit to Tampa and second at the Amalie Arena following UFC on Fox: Teixeira vs. Evans in April of 2016.^[2]

A women's strawweight bout between former champion Joanna Jędrzejczyk and former Invicta FC Atomweight Champion Michelle Waterson is expected to serve as the event headliner.^[7]

A middleweight bout between The Ultimate Fighter 23 winner Andrew Sanchez and Marvin Vettori was originally scheduled for September 14 at UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Gaethje. However, the bout was canceled after Sanchez was pulled during the week leading up to the event due to an eye infection.^[8] In turn, the pairing was left intact and has been rescheduled for this event.^[9]

Promotional newcomer Brok Weaver was scheduled to face Thomas Gifford at the event. However, Weaver pulled out of the bout on October 6 for undisclosed reasons.^[10] Gifford will now face Mike Davis.^[11]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Fight_Night:_J%C4%99drzejczyk_vs._Waterson

[PaperTrail07]

Interesting Stuff Here....Love GM3 but I don't think he will sucker anders into the Ground and his standup is weak sauce....this seems like Anders TKO all over it IMO....Griffin just has more skills....

I still lean Cub but that's just me thinking he is not done yet....fights tough comp all the time --he loses-it may be over for cub...

[firekillex]

JJ has informed the UFC she cannot make weight and is asking for a catchweight bout.. Michelle’s team declined this so JJ will have to pay 30% of her purse... wow knowing you cannot make weight days before the fight?? Looks like she’s done at 115

[Thrilla]

lady skeletor was done after tapping to strikes

[PaperTrail07]

agree....crazy....Like Waterson would agree to that LOL....

JJ has informed the UFC she cannot make weight and is asking for a catchweight bout.. Michelle’s team declined this so JJ will have to pay 30% of her purse... wow knowing you cannot make weight days before the fight?? Looks like she’s done at 115

[JIBBBY]

Always a crap card when chicks are headlining in the Main.. What ever.. I'll still bet it..

Under card prelims WAY more solid then the Main event card fights.. Should be the other way around.. UFC is getting silly with this card IMO..

[WolfTicketDealer]

JJ has informed the UFC she cannot make weight and is asking for a catchweight bout.. Michelle’s team declined this so JJ will have to pay 30% of her purse... wow knowing you cannot make weight days before the fight?? Looks like she’s done at 115

Not sure why JJ got fake when she could have waited until after her career is over

[PaperTrail07]

She looks way better--she will probably make more off marketing

Not sure why JJ got fake when she could have waited until after her career is over

[Hugo de Naranja]

Not sure why JJ got fake when she could have waited until after her career is over

Jonas called her missing weight in February

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups - MMA MANIA


170 lbs.: Miguel Baeza vs. Hector Aldana

Five knockouts in six professional wins brought MMA Masters’ Miguel Baeza (7-0) to “Contender Series,” where he faced late replacement Victor Reyna in June. Though “Caramel Thunder” failed to find the finish, the three knockdowns he scored impressed Dana White enough to sign him regardless.
All but one of his (technical) knockout victories have come in the first round.
Hector Aldana (4-2) defeated future UFC competitor Alvaro Herrera in the opening round of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Latin America” 2 before falling to eventual runner-up Enrique Marin. He didn’t return to the cage until three years later, when he lost to Song Kenan and Laureano Staropoli but claimed “Fight of the Night” against the latter.
“El Charro” is three inches shorter than Baeza and faces a two-inch reach disadvantage.
I didn’t come away from Baeza’s “Contender Series” appearance terribly impressed. He’s big for the division at 6’2” and has a rock-solid chin to go along with his punching power, but still makes some elementary mistakes in his striking ... especially on defense. It took him 1.5 rounds to stop relying entirely on lead rights and he tried to shoulder roll, of all things, when Reyna opened up. Still, he’s a decent brawler and Aldana figures to give him the fight he wants.
I’m confident saying that Baeza can take Aldana’s best shot and equally confident saying the inverse isn’t true. Baeza’s inability to actually maximize his height and reach will let Aldana land some eye-catching shots, but it won’t be long before either Baeza’s right hand or his knee end things abruptly.
Prediction: Baeza via first-round technical knockout
Related
Finalized! UFC Tampa Fight Card, ESPN+ Line Up


185 lbs.: Andrew Sanchez vs. Marvin Vettori

If it’s all the same to you guys, I’m just going to reuse my breakdown of this fight when it was scheduled for last month.
Andrew Sanchez (11-4) enjoyed a dominant run on TUF 23, where he secured Team Claudia’s total victory with a decision over Khalil Rountree at the Finale. He opened his Octagon career even (2-2), suffering comeback knockout losses courtesy of Anthony Smith and Ryan Janes, but has since picked up a pair of decision victories.
He stands one inch taller than the 6’0” “Italian Dream.”
Marvin Vettori (13-3) started his Octagon career strong with a pair of first-round submission, but stumbled into a 1-2-1 run and subsequent United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) suspension that put a dent in his momentum. Three months ago, he returned after 15 months away to dominate Cezar “Mutante” in Sacramento.
All 10 of his stoppage wins have come in the first round.
Fix Sanchez’s cardio and you have a genuine contender. Strong wrestling, great Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and good power in his hands make him a difficult proposition for most of the division. As is, it’s hard to have faith in him, especially against someone as aggressive as Vettori. While Sanchez looks to have the technical edge, that won’t last too long once Vettori’s pace starts wearing him down.
A methodical Sanchez can win this, especially if Vettori’s relatively quick turnaround comes back to bit him. I just don’t think he can maintain a comfortable pace with Vettori refusing to get out of his face. Vettori takes over in the second and third to take a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Vettori via unanimous decision
Related
Jedrzejczyk ‘Too Classy’ For A ‘Chinese Chick’ Like Zhang


125 lbs.: J.J. Aldrich vs. Lauren Mueller

The run for J.J. Aldrich (7-3) on TUF 22 ended after two fights thanks to a Tatiana Suarez rear-naked choke. She unsuccessfully debuted in UFC after picking up a pair of wins outside the promotion, but came back to win three straight before running into top prospect Maycee Barber.
She’ll have a half-inch of reach on “Princess Tiger.”
Though she didn’t earn a contract for her decision over Kelly McGill-Velasco on “Contender Series,” Lauren Mueller (5-2) got her Octagon opportunity eight months later and made the most of it with a decision over TUF veteran Shana Dobson. An upset submission loss to ** Yanan followed, after which she dropped a decision to towering striker Poliana Botelho.
She boasts one professional finish compared to Aldrich’s two.
Aldrich has looked remarkably solid lately, even in defeat. Indeed, she was taking Maycee Barber apart before getting clipped, and that performance has me confident about her chances against another come-forward mauler in Mueller.
Mueller’s only real edge her is her size, as she’s a former Bantamweight facing a former Strawweight. It won’t be all that useful if she can’t consistently get Aldrich to the fence, though. Aldrich’s superior movement and striking craft allow her to play matador on her way to a comfortable decision victory.
Prediction: Aldrich via unanimous decision
Related
UFC Tampa Poster Drops For ‘Jedrzejczyk vs Waterson’


135 lbs.: Marlon Vera vs. Andre Ewell

A skin infection knocked Marlon Vera (14-5-1) out of TUF: “Latin America,” then opened his UFC career 1-2. He has since won seven of nine, including four straight by stoppage.
He has just two decision victories as a professional, submitting eight.
Andre Ewell (15-5) brought a four-fight win streak into his late-notice octagon debut, then made it five straight with a split decision over former champion Renan Barao. He struggled with fellow prospect Nathaniel Wood three months later, tapping to a rear naked choke late in the third, but bounced back to win a back-and-forth war with Anderson dos Santos in June.
He’ll have three inches of height and nearly a half-foot of reach on “Chito.”
I keep saying that the Carlos Condit-style “equally dangerous on the feet and the ground to compensate for bad wrestling” archetype is obsolete in modern mixed martial arts (MMA) and Vera just keeps on winning. That said, Ewell’s a tricky stylistic match up, outranging Vera by a fair margin and offering a funky, movement-heavy style as opposed to the flat-footed firefighting that generally gets people clipped by “Chito.”
Ewell’s takedown defense has admittedly been a massive Achilles’ heel for him, and if Vera does come out looking to grapple, I don’t think “Mr. Highlight” can do anything about it. That said, Vera’s usually happy to let his punches and kicks get things to the ground, a losing proposition against Ewell, who should win enough striking exchanges to edge out a victory.
Prediction: Ewell via unanimous decision


170 lbs.: Niko Price vs. James Vick

Niko Price (13-3) roared off to a 4-1 (1 NC) UFC start, earning two “Performance of the Night” bonuses along the way, before falling to Abdul Razzak Alhassan in 43 seconds. “The Hybrid” got back on track with a comeback knockout of Tim Means, earning another bonus in doing so, but couldn’t halt the rise of Geoff Neal in their wild UFC 240 battle.
“The Texecutioner” has gone the distance just once in his professional career, knocking out nine.
The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 15 run for James Vick (13-4) ended in the semifinals, but that didn’t stop him from winning nine of his first 10 Octagon bouts and securing himself a spot in the rankings. His first-ever headlining appearance saw Justin Gaethje crumple him in 87 seconds, and he’s since dropped additional bouts to Paul Felder and Dan Hooker.
Despite moving up in weight for this fight, he’s the taller man by three inches.
Put these two in headgear and 16-ounce gloves and Vick takes it any day of the week. Price’s striking technique has yet to properly develop, and the 6’3” Vick can be difficult to wrangle once he gets a rhythm going. Unfortunately, Vick’s lack of a chin and tendency to back straight up with his hands down bode ill against an aggressive slugger like Price, especially when the two have
Unless Vick’s durability issues were a byproduct of the weight cut, I expect this to look like Price’s battle with Tim Means. Vick makes him look silly for several minutes before Price’s right hand finds the mark for a decisive finish.
Prediction: Price via first-round knockout
Related
Finalized! UFC Tampa Fight Card, ESPN+ Line Up

Fighters Pick Fights | Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Michelle Waterson | UFC Tampa


205 lbs.: Ryan Spann vs. Devin Clark

Though Ryan Spann’s (16-5) first bid for “Contender Series” glory didn’t quite go as planned thanks to Karl Roberson’s elbows, a trio of LFA victories and a 26-second stoppage in his return to Dana White’s show earned him a spot in the Octagon regardless. After taking a decision over Luis Henrique in his debut, “Superman” made it 2-0 with a knockout of Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in Rio de Janeiro.
Nine of his 10 submission victories have come in the first round.
The second man to graduate to UFC from Dana White’s “Lookin’ for a Fight,” Devin Clark (10-3) stumbled out of the gate with a stoppage loss to Alex Nicholson before going on to win four of his next six. His most recent effort saw him take on prospect Darko Stosic in Sweden, where he outworked his man to take home a unanimous decision.
He stands five inches shorter than Spann and will give up nearly seven inches of reach.
The parallels between Spann and Clark — both top athletes who’ve struggled to live up to their potential — are obvious. I definitely think Spann’s done more to turn the corner, though because his historically questionable cardio held up well against Henrique and he’s generally shown more to his game than the wrestle-happy Clark.
Clark can definitely win this if, as against Mike Rodriguez, he commits to just suffocating Spann against the fence any time “Superman” tries to open up. Spann’s a fair bit faster than “Slo-Mike,” however, and it’s hard to see Clark’s shaky jaw standing up to enough punishment to get the slog rolling. Spann clips him early and racks up yet another first-round submission once “Brown Bear” hits the ground.
Prediction: Spann via first-round submission
Related
Jedrzejczyk ‘Too Classy’ For A ‘Chinese Chick’ Like Zhang


125 lbs.: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Tim Elliott

Brazil’s Deiveson Figueiredo (16-1) lived up to his nickname, “God of War,” with knockouts in three of his first four Octagon victories, becoming the first man to stop the super-tough John Moraga with strikes in the process. He came up short against fellow Brazilian Jussier Formiga in March, but bounced back with a “Fight of the Night” decision over Alexandre Pantoja four months later.
He has knocked out eight professional opponents and submitted another five.
After claiming the Titan FC Flyweight title upon his UFC release, Tim Elliott (15-8-1) punched his ticket back to the Octagon by running the table on TUF 24. He’s gone 2-2 in his current run, starting with a competitive decision loss to Demetrius Johnson and most recently featuring a bonus-winning submission of Mark De La Rosa.
This will be his first fight in nearly two years.
Elliott is a walking counterpoint to the annoyingly persistent mindset that Flyweights are boring and we have all suffered from his long absence. I just don’t think he can fight the way he does against the division’s scariest puncher. Elliott tends to lead with his face at times, relying on his inhuman pace and toughness to keep him afloat, and that’s more than a little ill-advised considering what we’ve seen “Deus de Guerra” do to people once he finds their chins.
While Elliott is the stronger wrestler of the two and has a shot at victory if he can keep the Brazilian on his back, but Figueiredo has managed to scramble his way out from beneath essentially everyone besides Formiga. Figueiredo tears him up on the feet en route to ending Elliott’s 10-year drought of (technical) knockout losses.
Prediction: Figueiredo via second-round (technical) knockout
Related
UFC Tampa Poster Drops For ‘Jedrzejczyk vs Waterson’


170 lbs.: Max Griffin vs. Alex Morono

Max Griffin (15-6) opened his Octagon career 1-2 with losses to division standouts Colby Covington and Elizeu Zaleski, earning “Fight of the Night” against the latter, before scoring a breakout upset win of Mike Perry. Consecutive decision defeats to Curtis Millender and Thiago Alves followed, though “Max Pain” managed to right the ship with a narrow decision over rival Zelim Imadaev.
Seven of his nine stoppage victories have come by form of knockout.
Alex Morono (16-5) choked out Derrick Krantz for the Legacy Welterweight Championship before gritting his way to victory over Kyle Noke and James Moontasri in his first two Octagon appearances. A 1-2 (1 NC) skid followed, though he enters the cage this Saturday on the heels of two consecutive victories.
He’ll give up four inches of reach to Griffin.
Nobody can question Morono’s grit and he’s got a sneakily good Brazilian jiu-jitsu game when he bothers to use it. Unfortunately, he’s usually happy to just straighten his arms and hurl heat; he’s yet to land a single official takedown in the Octagon despite his skill on the ground. That’s fine when you’re dealing with willing sluggers like Song Kenan or fragile opposition like Zak Ottow, not against a skilled striker with superior firepower.
Griffin’s the more adept of the two in firefights and should have the wrestling to dictate where the fight takes place. Morono comes out headhunting as always, but Griffin recreates his effort against Perry, patiently taking Morono apart from the outside.
Prediction: Griffin via unanimous decision



Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2019: 139-82-1

[jacharron17]

Is it just me or is the Kron Gracie line a little off? I was expecting him to be around -225. Possible trap line, or pound it?

[Sanity Check]

She looks way better

.

[Thrilla]

MMA Pros Pick

[LBfightlife]

Was in response to post on first page talking about Kron not being able to Take down Bruce Leroy and have questionable wrestling -

Kron will often jump guard right into an attack. His striking and wrestling are improving, but still not top level. His jits will make up for it I feel. Look at his early Rizin fights how bad his boxing is, but once it hits the mat its a lock.

[PaperTrail07]

JJ twice the size of hottie---

[JIBBBY]

Was in response to post on first page talking about Kron not being able to Take down Bruce Leroy and have questionable wrestling -

Kron will often jump guard right into an attack. His striking and wrestling are improving, but still not top level. His jits will make up for it I feel. Look at his early Rizin fights how bad his boxing is, but once it hits the mat its a lock.

Probably going one way or the other with the 2 props below.. I'll probably hedge it with these..

1131 Gracie wins by submission

+100

1129 Swanson wins by TKO/KO

+370

[Thrilla]

JJ twice the size of hottie---

passing now on hottie. fuk

[Thrilla]

Weigh-ins + faceoffs

[UncleChael]

Always a crap card when chicks are headlining in the Main.. What ever.. I'll still bet it..

Under card prelims WAY more solid then the Main event card fights.. Should be the other way around.. UFC is getting silly with this card IMO..

Such a casual

[Hugo de Naranja]

Probably going one way or the other with the 2 props below.. I'll probably hedge it with these..

1131 Gracie wins by submission

+100

1129 Swanson wins by TKO/KO

+370

I'd hedge with Swanson Decision instead. Gracie trains with the Diaz bros and seems tough and durable from what I've seen. Swanson also not a huge puncher imo

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 19: Jedrzejczyk vs. Waterson
J.J. Aldrich Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Marvin Vettori Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Miguel Baeza Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Marlon Vera Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Deiveson Figueiredo Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Max Griffin Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Mike Davis Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Ryan Spann Round 1 KO (Punches)
Eryk Anders Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Luis Pena Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Mackenzie Dern Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Niko Price Round 1 KO (Punches)
Kron Gracie Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Joanna Jedrzejczyk Unanimous Decision (49-46 x3)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 19: Jedrzejczyk vs. Waterson

ESPN+ Prelims:

Fight #1: Aldrich vs. Mueller
No Bet

Fight #2: Vettori vs. A. Sanchez
No Bet

Fight #3: Baeza (DEBUT) vs. H. Aldana
Parlays

Fight #4: M. Vera vs. Ewell
Vera Round 2 (+400) 0.5u

Fight #5: Figueiredo vs. Elliott
Figueiredo ITD (+230) 0.5u

Fight #6: Griffin v. Morono
Parlays

Fight #7: M. Davis vs. Gifford
Parlays

Fight #8: Spann vs. D. Clark
No Bet

Main Card:

Fight #9: Anders vs. Meerschaert
No Bet

Fight #10: Pena vs. Frevola
Pena Submission (+425) 0.75u

Fight #11: Dern vs. Ribas
No Bet

Fight #12: Price vs. Vick
Price Submission (+1200) 0.25u

Fight #13: K. Gracie vs. Swanson
K. Gracie ITD (+100) 1u
K. Gracie Round 1 (+250) 0.5u

Fight #14: Jedrzejczyk vs. Waterson
Jedrzejczyk Decision (-140) 0.7u to win 0.5u

Straight Parlays:
Price/Jedrzejczyk (-101) 1.02u to win 1.01u
Vera/Jedrzejczyk (+101) 1u

Prop Parlays:
Griffin/Price+Vick WGD (+145) 1.75u
Baeza -3.5/M. Davis -3.5 (+152) 0.77u
Warrington+Takoucht O8.5/Baeza -3.5/Vera/Figueiredo/M. Davis -3.5/Anders/Dern/Price+Vick WSR3/K. Gracie/Jedrzejczyk -5.5 (+11600) 0.1u

Full Card Props:
None

Multi-Event Parlays:
Jedrzejczyk/Usman+Covington GD (-106) 1.59u to win 1.5u

[PaperTrail07]

GL today Fellas