UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya (Ocotber 05, 2019)

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  • Hugo de Naranja
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 04-14-16
    • 14140

    #36
    @Turbo any play for you?
    Comment
    • JIBBBY
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 12-10-09
      • 83686

      #37
      To Hugo's credit Whittiker has been dropped and stopped before... Courtesy of Wonderboy..

      Comment
      • PaperTrail07
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 08-29-08
        • 20423

        #38
        Very tough call IMO...Whittaker will need to dig deep here.....cant make this a karate match and will NEED to grapple like crazy.....channel his inner romero..
        Comment
        • bjpenn85
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 02-17-11
          • 5059

          #39
          Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
          Looks like I’m on Adesanya Island this weekend haha.
          Nope, were on the same boat patron
          Comment
          • PaperTrail07
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 08-29-08
            • 20423

            #40
            This seems like the key IMO.....a healthy whittaker beats him in a very tough fight...is he the same guy now---hard to know...
            Originally posted by Teem
            Nah man, I'm with you on Adesanya. He's an intelligent striker and he's gonna outwork whittaker. Whittaker looked beat to hell on the Countdown. Lot's of surgeries, scarred up. Adesanya has always trained and fought smart and healthy. Said on the countdown he fought 20 times in one year in China. He knows his body. That fight against Kelvin was insane. Adesanya was even going for submissions too. I like his chances against a worn out, beat up Whittaker.
            Comment
            • Hugo de Naranja
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 04-14-16
              • 14140

              #41
              Originally posted by PaperTrail07
              Very tough call IMO...Whittaker will need to dig deep here.....cant make this a karate match and will NEED to grapple like crazy.....channel his inner romero..
              Grapple like crazy? Whittaker hasn’t hit a takedown since November 2015. Why would you count on him to do something in this fight that he hasn’t done in years?
              Comment
              • PaperTrail07
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 08-29-08
                • 20423

                #42
                don't even really mean the TD necessarily unless it really presents itself....I just don't think he wins walking backwards...will need to pressure/dirty box/tie up...tire him out.....he is a smart fighter......IA at a distance will give him problems........
                Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                Grapple like crazy? Whittaker hasn’t hit a takedown since November 2015. Why would you count on him to do something in this fight that he hasn’t done in years?
                Comment
                • JIBBBY
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 12-10-09
                  • 83686

                  #43
                  Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                  Grapple like crazy? Whittaker hasn’t hit a takedown since November 2015. Why would you count on him to do something in this fight that he hasn’t done in years?
                  You're making a good case Hugo and swaying me... Not even so confident about the Whittiker making to a decision loss now.. Is a 5 rounder..

                  UFC 243 - Middleweight 5 rounds - Docklands Stadium - Melbourne, Australia - PPV
                  Sat 10/5 1001 Israel Adesanya -115
                  11:30PM 1002 Robert Whittaker -105

                  Who knows maybe this might be the call..

                  Sat 10/5 1003 Adesanya wins inside distance +170
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                  • Thrilla
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 03-10-15
                    • 13809

                    #44
                    MMA Pros Pick

                    <strong>
                    Comment
                    • Hugo de Naranja
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 04-14-16
                      • 14140

                      #45
                      Originally posted by PaperTrail07
                      don't even really mean the TD necessarily unless it really presents itself....I just don't think he wins walking backwards...will need to pressure/dirty box/tie up...tire him out.....he is a smart fighter......IA at a distance will give him problems........
                      I think Adesanya is better with clinch striking as well. Good knees and elbows from short range.
                      Comment
                      • Hugo de Naranja
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 04-14-16
                        • 14140

                        #46
                        @Jibby I'm playing Adesanya ML and Decision.
                        Comment
                        • Unwritten Law
                          SBR MVP
                          • 10-31-13
                          • 2532

                          #47
                          I'm leaning Whittaker for this one. Regardless of the outcome, Paulo Costa will take the belt away from the winner on Saturday.
                          Comment
                          • PaperTrail07
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 08-29-08
                            • 20423

                            #48
                            less power but agree with the diversity....Whittaker IMO needs a TKO eat one to give one....also cant doubt the hunger of IA....penetrating TITLE shot here fellas...
                            Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                            I think Adesanya is better with clinch striking as well. Good knees and elbows from short range.
                            Comment
                            • Demonata
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 07-12-11
                              • 25829

                              #49
                              Only a few days until I get to watch whittaker win. Loving how he looks in the workouts!
                              Comment
                              • JIBBBY
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 12-10-09
                                • 83686

                                #50
                                Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                @Jibby I'm playing Adesanya ML and Decision.
                                GL Hugo.. I may play it conservative and extremely safe with the Adesanya ML hedged with Whittiker KO myself I think.. I was going back and forth with this fight and the props and finally just landed on this..

                                There is barely enough hedge wiggle room to still profit either way with this hedge..


                                1001 Israel Adesanya -115

                                1039 Whittaker wins by TKO/KO +220
                                Comment
                                • Demonata
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 07-12-11
                                  • 25829

                                  #51
                                  I have whittaker winning a decision. Also like al iaquinta to win.
                                  Comment
                                  • bjpenn85
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 02-17-11
                                    • 5059

                                    #52
                                    Originally posted by Demonata
                                    I have whittaker winning a decision. Also like al iaquinta to win.
                                    Adesanya. I also leaned Whittaker at first. Watched tape. Well, forget it.

                                    Adesanya wins, i say easy.

                                    Iaquinta, hard match, i dont have any reads. But Hooker is kind of slick. Knees up the middle, good right hand, good at staying on the outside, how do you see iaquinta deal with those weapons?

                                    I say you loose both of your bets here, very likely.
                                    Comment
                                    • JC2008
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-27-08
                                      • 2258

                                      #53
                                      - If this shit goes to the cards there's a good chance they're giving it to Whitaker at home.
                                      Comment
                                      • Thrilla
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 03-10-15
                                        • 13809

                                        #54
                                        Originally posted by JC2008
                                        - If this shit goes to the cards there's a good chance they're giving it to Whitaker at home. the fighter with the whiter skin color.
                                        fixed
                                        Comment
                                        • slikec
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 01-11-11
                                          • 1032

                                          #55
                                          Cant wait to watch some fights on this card. Small bet(0,5U) on Adesanya.
                                          Comment
                                          • JAKEPEAVY21
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 03-11-11
                                            • 29268

                                            #56
                                            I'm taking most of the Aussies/Kiwis that are fighting other nationalities.

                                            I'll probably bet on Adesanya because i can't stand him and either win money or I'll be more than happy to lose the bet.
                                            Comment
                                            • Teem
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 04-11-17
                                              • 343

                                              #57
                                              ^ haha
                                              Comment
                                              • JAKEPEAVY21
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 03-11-11
                                                • 29268

                                                #58
                                                Originally posted by Teem
                                                ^ haha
                                                gotta hedge your emotions sometimes brotha!
                                                Comment
                                                • PaperTrail07
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 08-29-08
                                                  • 20423

                                                  #59
                                                  Comment
                                                  • PaperTrail07
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 08-29-08
                                                    • 20423

                                                    #60
                                                    Young masvidal getting choked out---wild one
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Baraldsson
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 05-18-19
                                                      • 514

                                                      #61
                                                      Originally posted by PaperTrail07
                                                      Masvidal's face actually turns blue as he lands.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • PaperTrail07
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 08-29-08
                                                        • 20423

                                                        #62
                                                        Yuuup.....why you might not like him---but you have to respect him-- masvidal-----Never Tap-Never lay down
                                                        Comment
                                                        • agendaman
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-01-11
                                                          • 3727

                                                          #63
                                                          tai tuivassa is a lock for me 1st. rd. tko
                                                          Comment
                                                          • PaperTrail07
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 08-29-08
                                                            • 20423

                                                            #64
                                                            ITD should be around -180 and does not go round 2 is even $ GL
                                                            Originally posted by agendaman
                                                            tai tuivassa is a lock for me 1st. rd. tko
                                                            Comment
                                                            • nyrider88
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 07-12-17
                                                              • 355

                                                              #65
                                                              was little suspecting isreal's chin, but after watching how gastelum couldn't put him away with a few big shots, made me lean towards him.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Sanity Check
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 03-30-13
                                                                • 10962

                                                                #66
                                                                Be careful with that 1st fight. Khalid Taha got outwrestled by Nad Narimani a few fights back. Bruno Silva has a draw against Casey Kenney who is a very good wrestler. Bruno Silva does have a potential path to victory IF Khalid Taha hasn't improved his man hugging game.

                                                                Have not capped this event @ all.

                                                                Good ruck errybodie~

                                                                I think a few guys also haven't fought in 2-3 years. Always a chance they could have spent days in the alaskan wilderness wrestling bears trying to be like Khabib.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Thrilla
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 03-10-15
                                                                  • 13809

                                                                  #67
                                                                  “I haven’t seen many fat people in Australia at all” - Al Iaquinta
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Thrilla
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 03-10-15
                                                                    • 13809

                                                                    #68
                                                                    "I've had Malaria 8 times as a kid" - Israel Adesanya
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JIBBBY
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 12-10-09
                                                                      • 83686

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Prelim MMA MANIA Write ups.. I almost forgot to post them up.. Lol..




                                                                      Video: Countdown To UFC 243 For ‘Whittaker Vs Adesanya’

                                                                      155 lbs.: Brad Riddell vs. Jamie Mullarkey

                                                                      Brad Riddell (6-1) — training out of the red-hot City Kickboxing gym that produced Israel Adesanya — racked up more than 80 professional kickboxing matches before committing to mixed martial arts (MMA). In his new sport, “Quake” owns a win over future UFC competitor Song Kenan and has won three straight since his lone defeat.
                                                                      He stands two inches taller than the 5’8” Jamie Mullarkey (12-2).
                                                                      Mullarkey racked up eight consecutive pro victories before running afoul of Alexander Volkanovski and suffering an upset (technical) knockout in his subsequent bout. His current streak (4-0) has seen him knockout Abel Brites for the Superfight MMA Lightweight championship and defend it in May with a stoppage of Edimar Teixeira.
                                                                      He has stopped 12 professional opponents, eight by form of knockout.
                                                                      Between his kickboxing pedigree and his gym affiliation, Riddell is clearly the A-side, but Mullarkey absolutely deserves your attention. He’s won several regional titles and is a razor-sharp boxer in his own right, boasting remarkable speed and power in his shots. Thing is, his wrestling isn’t good enough to make this a ground war, and as skilled as Mullarkey is on the feet, Riddell’s striking experience absolutely laps his.
                                                                      It also doesn’t help that Mullarkey’s a former Featherweight, while Riddell spent a chunk of his career campaigning at 170 pounds.
                                                                      Mullarkey’s essentially going into a kickboxing match with a bigger and exponentially more seasoned striker, and his leaky striking defense looks like a game-breaking flaw. He and Riddell duke it out for a bit until one of “Quake’s” left hooks finds the mark.
                                                                      Prediction: Riddell via first-round technical knockout
                                                                      Related
                                                                      Latest UFC 243 Fight Card, TV Line Up

                                                                      125 lbs.: Nadia Kassem vs. Ji Yeon Kim

                                                                      Four knockouts in less than 90 seconds apiece earned Nadia Kassem (5-1) an Octagon debut, which she made the most of by taking a decision over Alex Chambers in Sydney. Injury kept her out of action for almost 15 months, after which Montana De La Rosa handed her her first career defeat via second-round armbar.
                                                                      She is two inches shorter than “Fire Fist” and will give up six inches of reach.
                                                                      Ji Yeon Kim (8-2-2) fell to Lucie Pudilova in her June 2017 Octagon debut, only to pick up consecutive split decisions of Justine Kish and Melissa Fabian. Her last effort saw her welcome Antonina Shevchenko to the Octagon, to whom she lost a unanimous decision.
                                                                      This will be her first fight in 10 months.
                                                                      Kassem’s success — like that of fellow Australia Top Team members Alex Gorgees and the Mokhtarian brothers — is the product of unethical matchmaking. That said, she can definitely strike, and as you can probably guess from Kim’s nickname, “Fire Fist” is always good for a scrap. Kassem has a better chance at success against her than against most of the division’s mid- to upper-tier.
                                                                      Still not a great chance, though. Kim’s massive reach advantage poses a major problem for Kassem, and though Kim has yet to pursue a ground fight, she’s got a few submissions to her credit that suggest she at least has the option to challenge Kassem’s terrible ground game. Kim brawls her way to her first definitive Octagon victory.
                                                                      Prediction: Kim via unanimous decision
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                                                                      135 lbs.: Khalid Taha vs. Bruno Silva

                                                                      Khalid Taha (13-2) knocked out Keita Ishibashi in the first round of the Rizin Bantamweight Grand Prix, only for Takafumi Otsuka to end his run via guillotine in the quarterfinals. He made his Octagon debut eight months later, unsuccessfully challenging Nad Narimani, but returned soon after to spoil Boston Salmon’s debut via 25-second knockout.
                                                                      He has scored eight (technical) knockouts and three submissions as a professional.
                                                                      Bruno Silva (11-3-1) made it onto The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Brazil” 4 with a jaw-breaking front kick of Gustavo Sedorio, impressing Anderson Silva enough to join his team, but tapped to future finalist Dileno Lopes in the opening round. Since then, he’s gone 3-1-1, notably drawing with current UFC standout Casey Kenney.
                                                                      He’ll give up three inches of height to Taha.
                                                                      Honestly, I can’t find any good footage of Silva more recent than his Ultimate Fighter Run; all I could scrounge up was the time he got head kicked in seven seconds. What I do know is that he’s a rangy, mobile kickboxer training out of Team Nogueira, which is a nice set of descriptors to have.
                                                                      The other descriptor, that he has no issue making Flyweight, isn’t quite so nice. Taha’s a physical specimen with crushing power, and even if Silva does do the smart thing and try to exploit the German’s lingering wrestling issues, he lacks the size and strength to do it. Expect “Bulldog” to dazzle with some fancy kicks before running headlong into one of Taha’s bombs.
                                                                      Prediction: Taha via first-round technical knockout


                                                                      170 lbs.: Jake Matthews vs. Rostem Akman

                                                                      Jake Matthews (14-4) bounced back from an unsuccessful The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) run to win four of his first five in the Octagon (all by stoppage). Consecutive losses to Kevin Lee and Andrew Holbrook led him to move to 170 pounds, where he won three straight before falling to Rocco Martin in Dec. 2018.
                                                                      He stands one inch taller than Akman (6-1) at 5’11.”
                                                                      “Kurdimus Prime” went 14-2 as an amateur and undefeated (6-0) as a professional before stepping up on short notice to challenge Sergey Khandozko in Stockholm last June. Akman started strong, only to lose a decision after suffering a tide-turning knockdown in the second.
                                                                      He has knocked out five professional opponents and submitted one other.
                                                                      It feels like Matthews is perpetually on the verge of a breakthrough victory. I doubt it’ll ever come, but he’s damn consistent against everyone below the Top 15-20. Though it could have been a product of the short notice, Akman’s struggles with Khandozhko suggest he numbers among those Matthews generally beats without issue.
                                                                      Akman is a talented, well-rounded fighter with a real shot at the upset. After seeing Matthews hurt the extremely tough Li Jingliang and Akman get rocked in his most recent bout, though, I have to lean towards the “Celtic Kid.” Strong top control and a knockdown or two secure Matthews the win.
                                                                      Prediction: Matthews via unanimous decision
                                                                      Related
                                                                      Latest UFC 243 Fight Card, TV Line Up


                                                                      265 lbs.: Yorgan De Castro vs. Justin Tafa

                                                                      Yorgan De Castro (5-0) kicked off Season Three of “Contender Series” as its largest underdog, challenging wrestling standout Alton Meeks back in June. The Regiment Training Center-trained product wound up flipping the script and finishing Meeks with leg kicks to earn himself a UFC contract.
                                                                      Three of his four (technical) knockout victories have come in the first round.
                                                                      Justin Tafa (3-0) — whose elder brother Junior is a ranked kickboxer under the GLORY banner — scored a one-punch finish in his one and only amateur bout before joining the pros in May 2017. A 28-second knockout of Jeremy Joiner brought him the XFC Heavyweight title, which he defended by stopping Dylan Tiaaleaiga.
                                                                      All of his victories have come via (technical) knockout within two rounds.
                                                                      Two large men with lots of knockouts and limited defense should make for something interesting, at the very least. Or they could fail to hurt each other and gas, because that’s always the risk we run with Heavyweights.
                                                                      Tafa has the higher ceiling of the two, as he trains out of the better camp and De Castro is carrying at least 30 pounds of excess weight based on his career weigh-ins, but looks to be in for a rough debut. He’s vulnerable to De Castro’s two best weapons, namely the low kick and overhand right, and De Castro’s fight with Meeks suggests that Tafa will be unable to use the top control he occasionally bust out. They bang it out until Tafa’s lead leg gives out.
                                                                      Prediction: De Castro via second-round technical knockout
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                                                                      170 lbs.: Callan Potter vs. Maki Pitolo

                                                                      Callan Potter (17-8) joined the world’s largest fight promotion with wins in nine of his previous 10 fights, eight victories coming by stoppage and the sole defeat coming to UFC veteran Marcin Held. The momentum wasn’t enough to save him from short-notice foe Jalin Turner, who knocked out “the Rockstar” in 53 seconds.
                                                                      He has gone the distance just once in his pro career, submitting 10.
                                                                      Maki Pitolo (11-4) came back from consecutive stoppage losses to avenge an early-career defeat in Bellator and find his way onto “Contender Series.” There, he knocked out Justin Sumter in 97 seconds despite moving up to Middleweight to do so.
                                                                      “Coconut Bombz” stands three inches shorter than Potter at 5’9.”
                                                                      I honestly have a hard time seeing this as anything but an absolute stomp for Pitolo. Potter’s grappling skill is offset by his complete lack of striking defense, which is not a deficiency you can have against an offensive powerhouse of this caliber. To make matter worse, “The Rockstar” is a long-time Lightweight taking on a guy who can hold his own at Middleweight, making it even unlikelier that he’ll survive enough fire to get his wrestling going.
                                                                      Pitolo’s plenty hittable, too, but that won’t matter much here. A strong sprawl allows him to tear up Potter’s head and body for the finish.
                                                                      Prediction: Pitolo via first-round technical knockout
                                                                      Related
                                                                      Pic: UFC 243 poster drops for ‘Whittaker vs Adesanya’


                                                                      145 lbs.: Megan Anderson vs. Zarah Fairn Dos Santos

                                                                      Megan Anderson (8-4) secured both the Invicta Featherweight championship and a considerable amount of hype with her head kick knockout of Charmaine Tweet, setting up a UFC debut against Cris Cyborg at UFC 242. The fight wound up falling through, and Anderson has since gone just 1-2 in the Octagon.
                                                                      Five of her seven stoppage wins have come via (technical) knockout.
                                                                      Zarah Fairn Dos Santos (6-2) was set to make her Invicta debut last year against veteran Kaitlin Young, but ran into **** issues, making this her first fight in nearly 22 months. She’ll give up two inches of height to the 6’0” Anderson, but will have the reach advantage.
                                                                      It’s become clear that UFC’s ideal strategy for Anderson is to keep her as far away as possible from anyone with even a shred of offensive wrestling prowess. Luckily for her, Dos Santos appears to fit the bill, sporting a strong sprawl and a decent 1-2 but showing little interest in taking things to the mat of her own volition.
                                                                      That makes this a striking battle, and though Dos Santos can pressure well, her lack of offensive variety is a problem against the multifaceted Anderson. Anderson also looks to be the heavier hitter of the two and her height makes her kicking game a real threat. Movement and power kicks prevent Dos Santos from landing consistently and earn Anderson the win.
                                                                      Prediction: Anderson via unanimous decision
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • JIBBBY
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 12-10-09
                                                                        • 83686

                                                                        #70
                                                                        Main card -

                                                                        185 lbs.: Middleweight Champion Robert “The Reaper” Whittaker (20-4) vs. Interim Middleweight Champion Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya (17-0)
                                                                        One of the biggest challenges of this column is to ask the hard questions without sounding like a hater, or like I’m being a dick for laughs or because negativity is the new norm. I probably come off like one of those stand-up comics who starts the show by thanking Jesus before going into jokes about beating up crying babies, so let’s just get to it. Israel Adesanya is clearly a talented striker and on par with Conor McGregor in terms of bravado. What I find most impressive about “The Last Stylebender” is his ability to work the system. Most fans don’t realize the former kickboxer has only been competing for UFC since early 2018 and managed to build up a 6-0 record in less than two years. From the outside, he appears to be more accomplished than he actually is, at least in terms of big-game experience, because I’m not handing out any trophies for dominant performances against the likes of Derek Brunson and Brad Tavares.
                                                                        I think we also need to revisit his decision win over Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 236, as it sounds like “Stylebender” fans want to have it both ways. Adesanya’s performance is only forgivable if Gastelum is, in fact, one of the best middleweights in the world. I’m not sure how else to explain why a top-shelf striker who is five inches taller and sports a nine-inch reach advantage could not end that fight by way of bloody doctor’s stoppage. The jab alone should have painted the town red, so to speak. I think my concern is that Adesanya has been fortunate enough — or perhaps calculated enough — to be opportunistic in his bookings. Former middleweight champion, Anderson Silva, is 44 years old, already broke his leg, served two suspensions for pissing dirty, and has just one victory over the last seven years. Can we stop with this whole “omg the passing of the torch” nonsense? A win over Yoel Romero would change the conversation, just like it did for Paulo Costa, but that goes back to what I mentioned earlier about being opportunistic.
                                                                        Robert Whittaker was not as fortunate and despite his ill-timed layoffs, injuries, and whatever else was keeping the Aussie at bay, he was forced to spend nearly an hour locked inside the cage with that power-punching maniac. Those are the kinds of brutal wars that can change a fighter’s career for the worse, and questions have (fairly) been raised about what sort of “Reaper” will emerge on Saturday night. As we’ve come to learn more about CTE and the physical deterioration of combat sports athletes, the less we know about how to predict it. Some fighters can do 20 years in the game and come out with their faculties intact, while others can suffer a head butt in training and never recover. Maybe it sounds a little too dramatic to suggest Whittaker will be turned into Australian origami in the UFC 243 headliner, but at the same time, I don’t think it would come as a surprise if he took a clean jab or fadeaway counter and lost his legs. My point is, we can’t pretend the possibility does not exist.
                                                                        Whittaker is not unlike Adesanya in that he made it to the top of the mountain in a relatively short span of time, and in many ways was gifted the 185-pound strap when Georges St-Pierre threw a monkey wrench into the division. Michael Bisping retired shortly after that while Paulo Costa was a UFC newborn and still under the lamps. I don’t want to suggest that anyone who had to fight “Soldier of God” in back-to-back fights took the path of least resistance, but his road to the title was all ladders and zero chutes. Along the way, Whittaker dazzled with his offense but more importantly his defense, as those fluid shoulder rolls kept his head attached in more than one fight. If you’re going to rewind the tape and start looking at his knockout loss to Stephen Thompson back in early 2014, then I would expect you to also revisit Adesanya’s crushing defeat to Alex Pereira under the GLORY banner, which is not exactly ancient history.
                                                                        This has been a tough fight to call. Both Whittaker and Adesanya have established themselves as elite strikers with the chops to get it done at the top of the division. I think the deciding factor will be “The Reaper’s” wrestling, because a straight-up kickboxing match will undoubtedly lead to a “Stylebender” decision on points. The long and lean interim champion has more tools and too many physical advantages in that regard, but we still don’t know how he’ll respond if Whittaker starts spamming takedowns, or what happens when the elbows from guard start piling up. Based on the arguments I laid forth earlier, the safe pick feels like Whittaker by decision ... assuming his intestines don't implode after weigh ins (hey, it happens).
                                                                        Prediction: Whittaker def. Adesanya by unanimous decision
                                                                        155 lbs.: Dan “The Hangman” Hooker (18-8) vs. “Ragin’” Al Iaquinta (14-5-1)
                                                                        It was hard to have any faith in Dan Hooker when he made the jump to lightweight at UFC Auckland back in June 2017. “The Hangman” was just 3-3 under the UFC banner after a stellar run on the local circuit and at the time, the trend had yet to shift from moving down in weight to moving up, despite demonstrable proof from other combatants like Kelvin Gastelum and Robert Whittaker, a pair of ex-welterweights who went from middling journeymen to best in the world. Whether or not Hooker can follow suit remains to be seen, but the less-traumatic weight cut has paid dividends. Not only has the hard-hitting Kiwi won five of his six lightweight fights, he’s secured brutal knockouts in all but one of them — a submission over the venerable Marc Diakiese. His destruction of James Vick back in July marked his 17th finish in 18 wins, which validates his “Hangman” moniker.
                                                                        Al Iaquinta is nine spots ahead of Hooker in the official lightweight rankings, a media-influenced chasm that fails to reflect the reality of what’s really been going on at 155 pounds. For all his Long Island bravado, “Ragin’ Al” is a fairly simplistic fighter, plodding forward with little regard to anything but landing punches. His most celebrated performance to date was a five-round decision loss to the invincible Khabib Nurmagomedov, a headlining affair that had Team Serra-Longo sending “The Eagle” a fruit basket and thank you note for abandoning the takedowns. That’s not to suggest that Iaquinta isn’t a tough, dangerous fighter, but the seeds of his success were planted in cemetery soil, where the ghosts of Diego Sanchez and Joe Lauzon continue to haunt the lightweight grounds — perhaps not realizing their title aspirations are already dead. I can’t get excited about a split decision win over Jorge Masvidal back in 2015, especially when “Gamebred” needed the towel and two attempts to make the 155-pound limit. For my money, Iaquinta’s most impressive performance over the last five years was his gritty, soul-stealing win over the fading Kevin Lee.
                                                                        This contest will start (and probably stay) on the feet, as both fighters like to stand and bang. The scale tipper, at least on paper, is Hooker’s five-inch reach advantage. The shorter Iaquinta has been known to eat jabs like movie theater popcorn because defense is for pussies, or whatever the thought process is there, I’m not sure. That works against spastic strikers like Nurmagomedov, not against kickboxing killers like Donald Cerrone. There is equal concern on the side of “The Hangman,” who can’t replicate the mistakes he made against Edson Barboza if he hopes to remain conscious. If Hooker is expecting to outclass Iaquinta, or gets intoxicated on the energy of the hometown crowd, “Ragin’ Al” will have him looking up at the lights. The more probable scenario is that Iaquinta will start taking too much damage on the feet and default to his above-average wrestling, where a Hooker guillotine will be waiting to slice.
                                                                        Prediction: Hooker def. Iaquinta by submission
                                                                        265 lbs.: Tai “Bam Bam” Tuivasa (8-2) vs. Sergey “The Polar Bear” Spivak (9-1)
                                                                        The heavyweight division is unlike any other weight class in UFC. Not only does it have the widest discrepancy in allowable weight (205-265), it’s the one division where you can crack the Top 10 without being particularly skilled at MMA. Heck, it doesn’t even require much of a gas tank, you just need a solid chin and heavy hands. That’s how Tai Tuivasa blasted his way into the rankings back in 2018. Yes, he had a little help from his victory over ex-heavyweight champion, Andrei Arlovski, but the 40 year-old “Pitbull” has 18 losses, 10 of them by way of knockout, so I don’t think anybody was breaking out the bubbly for that three-round decision in favor of the Aussie.
                                                                        Tuivasa was a professional rugby player who went on to try his hand at boxing before finding his way to MMA. I don’t think his toughness is in question, but at age 26 and just two years into his UFC career, we probably shouldn’t blame him for a lack of technical prowess, which led to consecutive losses against Junior dos Santos and Blagoy Ivanov, two grizzled veterans who made “Bam Bam” look wet behind the ears. I guess that’s the price you have to pay when you don’t get to play softball for nine innings, like another bruiser-in-training in the form of Greg Hardy. Heading into this fight we should expect Tuivasa to rely on what got him to the big dance in the first place; namely, his rare blend of speed, power, and agility.
                                                                        I don’t see why that wouldn’t be enough to seal the deal against Sergey Spivak. The Moldovan came into the promotion back in May, boasting an impressive 9-0 record with nine finishes. Then he was summarily destroyed by Walt Harris at the UFC Ottawa event on ESPN+, validating that cage-fighting maxim about UFC-caliber competition. “The Polar Bear” made his name on shopworn geezers like the 45 year-old Tony Lopez, who sports 30 professional defeats, as well as regional tomato cans like Yuri Gorbenko, who has an 11-48 record and recently lost 22 straight fights. I mean I’m trying really hard to not be a dick about this but c’mon, this is ridiculous and probably one of those signings to help populate those dreadful UFC cards in Europe. A first-round finish would not surprise me.
                                                                        Prediction: Tuivasa def. Spivak by knockout
                                                                        170 lbs.: Luke “The Jedi” Jumeau (13-4) vs. Dhiego Lima (14-7)
                                                                        I forgot all about Luke Jumeau, probably because “The Jedi” has only competed once over the last two years, an uninspired decision loss to the equally-unheralded Shinsho Anzai at the UFC Fight Night 117 card in Japan. But I guess you can’t have an event in Australia without calling on all your locally-signed talent, so Jumeau will get a chance to prove he’s more than just “another one of those guys from New Zealand.” To be fair, the 31 year-old welterweight is 2-1 inside the Octagon, but it’s telling that he racked up six straight finishes on the regional circuit before signing with UFC and then promptly went to the judges’ scorecards in his next three fights. And it’s not like he was fighting anyone in the Top 10, so “The Jedi” will need a big performance this weekend “Down Under.”
                                                                        I’m not ready to rule it out against Dhiego Lima, a maddeningly inconsistent fighter who is like that guy on the softball team hitting 647 home runs in practice, only to go 1-4 during the actual game. Lima has the dubious distinction of competing on two separate seasons of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) and making it to the finals in both attempts ... only to get finished in the live finales. Ouch. The Brazilian stands at just 3-5 inside the Octagon but the good news is, two of those wins have come in consecutive victories over Chad Laprise and Court McGee, the first time he’s won back-to-back fights under the UFC banner in non-TUF competition. Perhaps he’s finally found his footing at age 30? I think his performance in this fight will go a long way in answering that question.
                                                                        Despite his inconsistency, Lima has been pretty active over the last couple of years and appears to have been making the necessary adjustments. Coming into this contest he will enjoy an advantage in both height and reach, though he’s likely to default to his wrestling and/or grappling when Jumeau comes in for some dirty work. Comsdiering how flustered “The Jedi” looked when he got pushed around by the aforementioned Anzai, I’m not sure he’ll have an answer for Lima’s offense, though he remains a dangerous counterpuncher for as long as the bout remains standing. Barring a reckless firefight, this is Lima’s fight to lose.
                                                                        Prediction: Lima def. Jumeau by submission
                                                                        265 lbs.: Yorgan De Castro (5-0) vs. Justin “Bad Man” Tafa (3-0)
                                                                        (Note: The following prediction carried over from the UFC 243 “Prelims” breakdown by Patrick Stumberg after a fight card shake up).
                                                                        Yorgan De Castro kicked off Season Three of “Contender Series” as its largest underdog, challenging wrestling standout Alton Meeks back in June. The Regiment Training Center-trained product wound up flipping the script and finishing Meeks with leg kicks to earn himself a UFC contract.
                                                                        Three of his four (technical) knockout victories have come in the first round.
                                                                        Justin Tafa — whose elder brother Junior is a ranked kickboxer under the GLORY banner — scored a one-punch finish in his one and only amateur bout before joining the pros in May 2017. A 28-second knockout of Jeremy Joiner brought him the XFC Heavyweight title, which he defended by stopping Dylan Tiaaleaiga.
                                                                        All of his victories have come via (technical) knockout within two rounds.
                                                                        Two large men with lots of knockouts and limited defense should make for something interesting, at the very least. Or they could fail to hurt each other and gas, because that’s always the risk we run with heavyweights.
                                                                        Tafa has the higher ceiling of the two, as he trains out of the better camp and De Castro is carrying at least 30 pounds of excess weight based on his career weigh-ins, but looks to be in for a rough debut. He’s vulnerable to De Castro’s two best weapons, namely the low kick and overhand right, and De Castro’s fight with Meeks suggests that Tafa will be unable to use the top control he occasionally busts out. They bang it out until Tafa’s lead leg gives out.
                                                                        Prediction: De Castro via second-round technical knockout
                                                                        There you have it.
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