i like tyson nam here, never really impressed with both pettis brothers.
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I will be very surprised if a guy that barely outland guys having 7-5 record on the regional scene outstrikes Pettis. A guy that outstrikes the top of the division in the UFC.
Nam can win by KO in the first round, i dont know how much tape you have watched but i can see a very hesitant fighter who doesnt throw strikes and just isnt that good.
But good luck obviously. But you do not have my blessing, i can tell you that lolComment -
Very well could be....I am relying on the fact that she uses her strengths and doesn't try to make this a stand up show for too long. I think she is miles above Betch in her wrestling, and although her cardio can be a little sus, I think she will dominate 1 and 2, and if she happens to coast though 3 than so be it. Again, we shall see, I dont have a dog in this fight and if you are betting it I hope you cash it.Comment -
Seems like fluff, if Stephens win IMO it wont be b/c of "cardio" or who he trained with, or how much money he spent, but because he landed a huge power shot or shots.
No doubt Stephens will come to fight, always has despite who he is training with. He has always walked forward and thrown bombs, win lose or draw. If he catches Yair, he's going to put him out plain and simple. He just had a hard time finding Zabit and Yair can be just as elusive, even moreso because he likes to keep distance to throw his spinning shit from the outside. If Yair can survive in to the 3rd I honestly think he will frustrate JS and piece him up.
BOL with your bet hope you cash.Comment -
IMO, this is the perfect bad bet. Potentially a very close fight, where Bethe potentially is able to withstand the takedowns and make it close.
You rather want to bet Bethe...or...you dont want to have anything to do with a close fight at -250, or bethe fakking correira.
Its an easy pass man, im trying to help you here brotha.....its a bad bet. Youre money is not in a strong position.Comment -
BJ- think you misunderstood. I'm not betting the fight. My money is good.
Just stating that I think Eubanks cruises to an easy W, even if its 29-28.
If you think its a close fight, are you taking Betch +3.5?Comment -
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It could be the Mexican fans riling things up, there are lots of tensions between fighters during faceoffs. It gives me the sense that we will see many finishes, though there are not many fights in the upper weight classes this card.Comment -
One word: altitudeComment -
Event time!!! Still loving the UFC after all these years!!! Let's win some money fellas!!
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Same MMA writer main card write ups..MMA MANIA PRELIM write ups -
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125 lbs.: Sergio Pettis vs. Tyson Nam
Sergio Pettis (17-5) fought his way into Flyweight title contention with four consecutive victories, capped off by a decision over Brandon Moreno in “The Phenom’s” first-ever main event. He’s just 1-3 since that victory, though he did become the first man since 2009 to beat Joseph Benavidez in a non-title fight in that one victory.
He’s one inch shorter and nine years younger than Tyson Nam (16-9-1).
Hawaii’s Nam shocked the mixed martial arts (MMA) world back in 2012 with a one-punch knockout of Bellator champ Eduardo Dantas, only to lose his next four bouts. He’s found more success in his current run, which includes a draw with future The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) competitor Yoni Sherbatov and a head kick knockout of former UFC title challenger Ali Bagautinov.
He steps in for the injured Alex Perez on little more than three weeks’ notice.
Pettis is fortunate that Perez had to withdraw. That’s because Nam, though a quality fighter, is nowhere near the stylistic nightmare the wrestling-heavy Perez was. “The Phenom’s” rock-solid striking fundamentals look like an excellent answer for the overly patient Nam, who has a habit of letting the striking stats get lopsided as he waits for a perfect countering opportunity.
Nam does have some real power when he bothers to swing and Pettis’ chin has failed him before, but Pettis is unlikely to give him the clear shots he needs to let his hands go. Expect Pettis to potshot and frustrate Nam, never really hurting him but racking up enough of a volume edge to take home a wide decision.
Prediction: Pettis via unanimous decision
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205 lbs.: Vinicius Moreira vs. Paul Craig
Vinicius Moreira (9-3) showed his toughness and grappling skill on “Contender Series: Brazil,” where he survived some early trouble to choke out Muay Thai specialist John Allan and earn himself a contract. Said toughness hasn’t quite held up in the Octagon, as “Mamute” suffered a pair of first-round knockout losses to Alonzo Menifield and Eryk Anders.
Neither he nor Paul Craig (11-4) have ever gone the distance, combining for 18 submission wins and two (technical) knockouts.
“Bearjew” followed up his claiming of the BAMMA Light Heavyweight title with a bonus-winning armbar of Henrique da Silva in his Octagon debut. He’s since gone 2-4, though he did pick up two more bonuses via comeback submissions of Magomed Ankalaev and Kennedy Nzechukwu.
He’ll give up one inch of height to his Brazilian foe.
This should be a loser-goes-home match — Moreira is way too slow and hittable to bring his grappling to bear, while Craig’s striking and wrestling have yet to catch up to his submissions. Both need highly favorable match ups to make any sort of run in the Octagon and I’m not sure even the top-heavy UFC Light Heavyweight division has enough potential victims.
This, however, is a highly favorable match up for “Mamute.” Craig’s striking is … existent, which already gives him the edge on the feet, but his willingness to pull guard and the ease with which he’s taken down bode ill. Moreira’s the far larger man and his top control is scarier than Craig’s bottom game; therefore, he muscles Craig to the mat, wraps up a submission, and sets himself up to get knocked the hell out by his next UFC foe.
Prediction: Moreira via first-round submission
Related
Highlights: Watch luchador Cain Velasquez leap off the top rope at AAA’s Invading NY
135 lbs.: Sijara Eubanks vs. Bethe Correia
Sijara Eubanks (4-3) defied a low ranking on TUF 26 to smash her way through the competition, only to pull out of the Finale because of issues with the weight cut. She went on to beat Lauren Murphy and Roxanne Modafferi, missing weight against the latter, then fell once again to Aspen Ladd in her “Fight of the Night”-winning return to 135 pounds.
Both of her pre-UFC professional wins came by ground-and-pound technical knockout.
It’s been four years since Bethe Correia’s (10-4-1) unsuccessful title bid against Ronda Rousey, and the Brazilian has fought just five times in that span. Her last three fights have seen her battle Marion Reneau to a draw, suffer a head kick knockout loss to Holly Holm in her second main event, and tap to an Irene Aldana armbar after ending a nearly two-year hiatus.
“The Pitbull” is one inch taller than Eubanks, but will give up three inches of reach.
Correia has won one (1) fight in the last five years, and that was a robbery against Jessica Eye. She did much better than I expected against Aldana last time out, but at 36 years old, I think we’re past the point of her being a threat in the division ... being a decent brawler isn’t enough in the modern UFC.
“Pitbull” doesn’t have enough power to slow down Eubanks’ pressure and she faces a considerable disparity in wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, giving her few avenues of victories. Though I can see her possibly outlasting Eubanks if the latter doesn’t pace herself, there’s not enough going her way to bank on that hypothetical. Eubanks walks her down and racks up long stretches of top control for the win.
Prediction: Eubanks via unanimous decision
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155 lbs.: Claudio Puelles vs. Marcos Mariano
Claudio Puelles (8-2), representing Team Chuck Liddell, won three bouts on TUF: “Latin America 3” before falling to Martin Bravo at the Finale. He entered his subsequent bout with Felipe Silva as a sizeable underdog, only to score an improbably comeback kneebar to earn “Performance of the Night.”
This will be his first fight in 16 months because of injury.
Marcos Mariano (6-5) — who opened his professional career 2-3 — won four of his next five before joining UFC in February. He debuted against the all-action Lando Vannata in Melbourne, tapping to a kimura late in the first round.
He stands three inches taller than Puelles and will have a four-inch reach advantage.
It really speaks to how much UFC loves Lando Vannata that they signed a guy for the express purpose of losing to the “Groovy” one. Mariano’s height is literally the only notable thing about him; otherwise, he’s an okay striker with no ground game to speak of.
Puelles is no world-beater himself, but he’s a very capable grappler with considerably more experience against competent opposition. Once he lands his first takedown, it’s only a matter of time. He sends Mariano back to the Brazilian circuit with a quick rear-naked choke.
Prediction: Puelles via first-round submission
135 lbs.: Jose Quinonez vs. Carlos Huachin
The runner-up on the inaugural The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Latin America” series, Jose Quinonez (7-3) rebounded from his debut loss to win four in a row and set up a clash with fellow prospect Nathaniel Wood last March. The step-up proved too much for “El Teco,” who tapped to a rear-naked choke midway through the second round.
This will be the first time since 2014 that he has competed twice in a calendar year.
Carlos Huachin (10-4-1) — riding a seven-fight unbeaten streak — answered the call when Raoni Barcelos lost his UFC 237 opponent in May. “El Perro Malo” started strong on the feet, but ultimately succumbed to the Brazilian’s ground-and-pound.
He has scored nine first-round finishes as a professional, eight of them via knockout.
It’s hard to get a bead on where exactly Quinonez stands in the Bantamweight division. That’s because as nice as a four-fight win streak looks on paper, none of the men he beat wound up with winning records in the Octagon. He looked badly outclassed against Wood, who’s essentially the only quality opponent we have to measure him against since “El Teco’s” loss to Alejandro Perez at TUF Finale.
Huachin is a serious threat on the feet who’s burdened with substandard takedown defense. Even with the aforementioned concerns I have about Quinonez, that wrestling deficiency is too juicy a target for me to pick against him. Regular top control carries him to a unanimous decision win.
Prediction: Quinonez via unanimous decision
Related
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145 lbs.: Polo Reyes vs. Kyle Nelson
The 4-1 UFC start Polo Reyes (8-6) start saw him score three post-fight bonuses thanks to two first-round knockouts and a 2016 “Fight of the Year” candidate against Dong Hyun Ma. He has since suffered consecutive (technical) knockout losses to Damir Hadzovic and Drew Dober, prompting a drop to Featherweight for this bout.
All but two of his professional wins have come by form of knockout.
Kyle Nelson (12-3) stepped up in weight to challenge Diego Ferreira in his late-notice Octagon debut, wherein he managed to sting the Lightweight contender before suffering a (technical) knockout loss in the second. “The Monster” returned to 145 pounds against Matt Sayles, tapping to an arm triangle after spending a while attached to “Robo’s” back.
He’ll have one inch of height and three inches of reach on his foe.
I feel like a lot of fighters see dropping in weight as a panacea for whatever ails them. Reyes’ problem wasn’t being too small, it was his shoddy defense against both takedowns and strikes. Nelson’s fight with Sayles suggests he can exploit at least one of those, as he found considerable grappling success before running out of steam.
If he can do that to Sayles, he can do it to Reyes.
“El Toro’s” heinous punching power makes him a threat to anyone, and he could very well leverage his size advantage into some early sprawls. After watching him struggle with Hadzovic’s grappling, which has consistently failed the Bosnian in the Octagon, I can’t have faith in it. Nelson survives an early scare to take the back and either choke (or pound out) the Mexican slugger.
Prediction: Nelson via second-round submission
Related
Highlights: Watch luchador Cain Velasquez leap off the top rope at AAA’s Invading NY
115 lbs.: Angela Hill vs. Ariane Carnelossi
Angela Hill (9-7) went from unsuccessful TUF alum to Invicta champion after leaving the UFC in 2014, claiming and once defending the promotion’s Strawweight belt. She has gone 3-5 in her second Octagon run, most recently dropping a decision to the surging Xiaonan Yan at UFC 238.
“Overkill” stands an inch taller than Carnelossi at 5’3.”
Ariane Carnelossi (12-1) has not tasted defeat since her professional debut against future UFC competitor Amanda Ribas, finding success in multiple Brazilian promotions. She won a one-night tournament last November, then knocked out fellow once-beaten Ketlen Souza last May for her third finish in five fights.
“Sorriso” has knocked out eight professional opponents and submitted one other.
Carnelossi is powerful and entertaining, but she’s the sort of foe Hill really should be able to beat. “Overkill” is the better striking technician and ostensibly won’t have to worry about takedowns; plus, unlike the Yan and Cortney Casey fights, Hill won’t be facing height and reach disadvantages. Outside of Carnelossi’s power, Hill figures to hold the edge most everywhere.
That said, she’s underperformed in the past, and Carnelossi is dogged enough to potentially take a decision through volume and aggression. Without a physical disparity to work through, though, Hill figures to exploit Carnelossi’s limited footwork and take a decision behind her jab and movement.
Prediction: Hill via unanimous decision
Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2019: 124-76-1
155 lbs.: Yair “Pantera” Rodriguez (11-2) vs. Jeremy Stephens (28-16)
If you’re someone who gets frustrated by people not fighting smart, avert ye eyes. Rather than use his myriad physical gifts and bottomless striking toolbox to form a cohesive offensive onslaught, Rodriguez is content to haphazardly throw things at the wall until something sticks. Rather than set up his teeth-rattling power punches with his jab or properly utilize his crushing low kicks, Stephens remains brawl-happy after over a decade in the Octagon.
God, I pity their coaching staff.
The knee-jerk reaction here is to look at Stephens’ struggles with Zabit Magomedsharipov and use the latter’s superficial stylistic resemblance to Rodriguez to extrapolate. Thing is, Magomedsharipov’s wrestling essentially gave him a get-out-of-jail-free card any time Stephens started picking up momentum, and though Rodriguez is no slouch in that area, he’s not “Zabeast.” This stays on the feet, where both men “just need one.”
Stephens’ “one” seems a bit more likely to me. As said before, Rodriguez doesn’t set up spinning and jumping shenanigans, instead using his athleticism to catch people by surprise. Chan Sung Jung avoided them for 20 minutes by staying patient, which Stephens can do if so inclined. The less-dramatic pieces of “El Pantera’s” arsenal don’t seem like they pack enough oomph to slow Stephens down considering “Lil’ Heathen’s” ability to withstand power shots from Doo Ho Choi and Josh Emmett.
It’ll be a wash while Rodriguez is fresh; hell, he’ll probably make Stephens look stupid for a few minutes, dancing at range and slamming all manner of kick-based chicanery into his guard. Once the leg kicks start piling up and Rodriguez slows down, though, he won’t be able to escape those sledgehammers for long. Stephens again weathers an early storm to pound his man out.
Prediction: Stephens via third-round technical knockout
115 lbs.: Alexa Grasso (11-2) vs. Carla “Cookie Monster” Esparza (14-6)
This is a pivotal test for Grasso. In her last fight against Karolina Kowalkiewicz, she finally looked like the potential star I thought she’d be when I watched her box up Mizuki Inoue in 2015. She was sharp, aggressive, fast, and powerful, outclassing one of the division’s most seasoned strikers and making it look easy.
Esparza’s a whole different animal, though. Almost five years after her Octagon debut, she remains one of the division’s best wrestlers, and while Tatiana Suarez can take down just about anyone, the fact that Grasso gave up takedowns to Felice Herrig and Randa Markos should give “The Cookie Monster” hope.
I do apologize for constantly busting this phrase out, but this is a two-true-outcome fight. If Grasso keeps it standing, her height, reach, and overall boxing acumen outclass Esparza’s striking despite the latter’s obvious improvements in that area. On the ground, Grasso has few answers for Esparza’s elite top control.
Had this taken place before Grasso’s most recent fight, I’d take Esparza in a heartbeat. Grasso just looked too good against Kowalkiewicz for me to ignore. Like against Markos, she lands enough on the feet and scrambles out of enough bad spots to eke out a decision.
Prediction: Grasso via split decision
125 lbs.: Askar “Bullet” Askarov (10-0) vs. Brandon “Assassin Baby” Moreno (15-5)
Askarov’s name may be easier to remember, spell, and pronounce than other Russian standouts, but he’s absolutely worth your attention. He’s faced a bevy of strong talent in his young career, picking up a title in a highly well-regarded Eastern European promotion and never failing to finish an opponent.
Moreno, meanwhile, made the most of his time away from the UFC by reaching the finals of a Combat Jiu Jitsu tournament and also knocking out LFA Flyweight champ Maikel Perez, claiming the latter’s belt in the process.
In short, this fight is worth your attention.
What makes this so interesting is that their wheelhouses overlap. Though a strong wrestler, Askarov does his best work in transition, where Moreno is happy to oblige him. Any prolonged grappling exchanges between these two are going to be absolutely wild. and Moreno has enough power in his wild standup to keep things interesting despite Askarov’s technical edge on that front.
While Moreno is the likelier of the two to score a finish, Askarov’s wrestling edge and crisper boxing have me leaning his way. Moreno takes him the distance, but spends enough time on the bottom or on the wrong end of Askarov’s punches to make his Octagon return an unsuccessful one.
Prediction: Askarov via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Irene Aldana (10-5) vs. Vanessa “Miss Simpatia” Melo (10-5)
You know what’s always convenient as a fight analyst? When a fighter shoes the blueprint for beating them. Less than two months ago, Melo take on veteran Jan Finney, whom you may remember from the time Kim Winslow let Cyborg smash her face in. Finney, the taller and rangier woman, used a stiff jab and patient in-and-out movement to defuse Melo’s countering game. Though the Brazilian had some moments of success, Finney appeared to deserve the victory, but the judges thought otherwise.
You can read more on that event’s shenanigans here. It’s wild stuff.
Aldana also boasts a considerable edge in height and presumably reach, plus the boxing craft to use it the way Finney did. Though I’ll admit to some trepidation after her bizarrely close battle with Bethe Correia, it’s hard to envision her losing when Finney showed her exactly what to do. So long as Aldana doesn’t get caught up in a close-range brawl, this is her fight to lose. Strong jabs, crosses, and distance management carry her to her fourth win in five fights.
Prediction: Aldana via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Steven “Ocho” Peterson (17-9) vs. Martin “Toro” Bravo (11-2)
You wouldn’t think you could make a compelling fight out of two guys who just lost to Alex Caceres, but here we are. Peterson and Bravo share a mutual disdain for taking a single step back, meaning these two are going to collide in the center until somebody flinches.
This is as close to a mirror match as you’re likely to get; Peterson’s the more determined wrestler and Bravo is the better striker, but the distinctions will go out the window as soon as they start trading. Expect the announcers to spout something like “who wants it more?” at every given opportunity.
All that said, Bravo does seem to have the slightest of edges; Peterson consistently fails to make his wrestling work against strong competition and is worryingly hittable. While he’s durable enough to take Bravo’s best shots and potentially relentless enough to sway a judge through pure aggression, it’ll be “Toro” landing the more telling blows. Superior strike quality carries Bravo to a narrow victory.
Prediction: Bravo via split decisionComment -
UFC on ESPN+ 17: Rodriguez vs. Stephens Picks:
Claudio Puelles Round 2 Submission (Armbar)
Sijara Eubanks Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Paul Craig Round 1 Submission (Triangle Choke)
Sergio Pettis Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Ariane Carnelossi Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Kyle Nelson Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Jose Quinonez Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Martin Bravo Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Irene Aldana Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Askar Askarov Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Carla Esparza Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Yair Rodriguez Unanimous Decision (49-46 x2, 48-47)Comment -
UFC on ESPN+ 17: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
ESPN+ Prelims:
Fight #1: Puelles vs. Mariano
No Bet
Fight #2: Eubanks vs. Correia
No Bet
Fight #3: Craig vs. Moreira
Craig KO/TKO (+850) 0.25u
Fight #4: S. Pettis vs. Nam (DEBUT)
Parlays
Fight #5: Carnelossi (DEBUT) vs. A. Hill
No Bet
Fight #6: K. Nelson vs. Polo Reyes
Parlays
Fight #7: Quinonez vs. Huachin
No Bet
Main Card:
Fight #8: Bravo vs. Peterson
No Bet
Fight #9: I. Aldana vs. Melo (DEBUT)
No Bet
Fight #10: Askarov (DEBUT) vs. Moreno
No Bet
Fight #11: Esparza vs. Grasso
No Bet
Fight #12: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
Rodriguez (-115) 2.3u to win 2u
Rodriguez Decision (+285) 1.5u
Rodriguez Unanimous Decision (+385) 0.25u
Straight Parlays:
None
Prop Parlays:
Craig+Moreira WGD/S. Pettis (-112) 0.5u to win 0.45u
Full Card Props:
None
Multi-Event Parlays:
K. Nelson+Polo Reyes WGD/Mousasi (-102) 2.03u to win 2uComment -
Don't really like this card from a betting perspective. Good luck all.Comment -
As always, thanks for posting Hugo. Good luckComment -
Holding the shorts!!! Could have been a sub finish there..
They should make these shorts with ring holes in them to grab since it's legal to grab your own shorts..
Shit rule they should change.. Shorts are not a Jitzu Gi in the UFC and should not be used as such to save your ass from a locked in Kimura...Last edited by JIBBBY; 09-21-19, 04:33 PM.Comment -
Lets go eubanks. I hate betting women ufc fighters but like her to win.Comment -
eubanks is a stupid bitch oyster penetrate ass retardComment -
Sorry Dem.. This fight was a pass for me as the odds were jacked to0 much for Eubanks even with the props.. Glad I passed I would have taken Eubanks by decision.
Chick fights are tough to call but almost always go to decision.. That's probably gonna be your safest bet if you must..Comment -
eubanks almost finishes her in first round than sucks ass rest of the fight. Done with this card now.Comment -
Odds were +350 on Dimes for that decision win by the way if anyone was curious... I would have thought it would have been more.Last edited by JIBBBY; 09-21-19, 05:10 PM.Comment -
Moreira by sub would be nice here.. Both strong on the ground though..Comment -
Craig gets it by sub.. Was gonna go one way or the other in that one.. Don't know the odds on the Craig Sub, probably in +400 though if I had to guess.Comment -
Wish ref had stopped that for a TKO. Easily could haveComment -
Hugo the man!!!! Love to know the odds on that ^^^^Comment -
dawg dawg dawg dawgComment -
gotta love the scottish accent lmaoComment
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