UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier (September 07, 2019)

[UncleChael]

I wish it was today

[U2.5]

some props up

[JIBBBY]

With a 65% tdd, i think its pretty likely that he wont stand a chance actually. Often when i cap fights and i need a fighter to withstand td and and i see 75% and up evaluate the number as healthy, obviously the competition must be good enough to get the stamp healthy, if the fighters hasnt fought any wrestlers i will throw the 75% number in the trash.

but to my point...with 65% although the number may be incorrect as Poirer has many fights under his belt, lets go by the number 65%, that may indicate he will struggle badly against Khabib, who certainly is a lot better than the people who have already been able to take Poirier down. But....can Poirier a very very very good fighter...on 12-10 weeks notice, with a camp more or less only focusing on wrestling, with access to top level talent in wrestling be able to make a significant difference? I dont think so, but i hope so. Public gives DP no chance, which is quite hilarious i think.

Khabib is special kind of grinder and ground fighter. You can throw percentages out the window. I can't bet against him in this one.. Won't even hedge..

It's either gonna be Khabib by sub or by decision.. Take your pick!!! Odds makers seem to think it won't go the distance though.

Dustin Poirier vs Khabib Nurmagomedov - Lightweight 5 rounds - UFC 242
Sat 9/7		1003 Poirier / Nurmagomedov goes 5 rd dist		+130
4:00PM		1004 Fight won't go 5 rd distance		-170

Khabib is 30 years old and in his MMA prime. UNDEFEATED.. These are also things you need to consider when thinking of fading.. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Khab...agomedov-56035

[Hugo de Naranja]

With a 65% tdd, i think its pretty likely that he wont stand a chance actually. Often when i cap fights and i need a fighter to withstand td and and i see 75% and up evaluate the number as healthy, obviously the competition must be good enough to get the stamp healthy, if the fighters hasnt fought any wrestlers i will throw the 75% number in the trash.

but to my point...with 65% although the number may be incorrect as Poirer has many fights under his belt, lets go by the number 65%, that may indicate he will struggle badly against Khabib, who certainly is a lot better than the people who have already been able to take Poirier down. But....can Poirier a very very very good fighter...on 12-10 weeks notice, with a camp more or less only focusing on wrestling, with access to top level talent in wrestling be able to make a significant difference? I dont think so, but i hope so. Public gives DP no chance, which is quite hilarious i think.

I don't understand what you're saying here. First you say "I think its pretty likely that he (Poirier) won't stand a chance". Then you say, "Public gives DP no chance, which is quite hilarious I think". Isn't this contradicting what you said earlier in the same post?

[bjpenn85]

I don't understand what you're saying here. First you say "I think its pretty likely that he (Poirier) won't stand a chance". Then you say, "Public gives DP no chance, which is quite hilarious I think". Isn't this contradicting what you said earlier in the same post?

no. I just said, hes chances should be slim, and the market agrees. Hoping for late stoppage for DP but its typical that Khabibs striking is even better than last time, and that he will outstrike DP. The threath of the takedown will make DPs striking 40% less effective just out of panic.

[bjpenn85]

Khabib is special kind of grinder and ground fighter. You can throw percentages out the window. I can't bet against him in this one.. Won't even hedge..

It's either gonna be Khabib by sub or by decision.. Take your pick!!! Odds makers seem to think it won't go the distance though.

Dustin Poirier vs Khabib Nurmagomedov - Lightweight 5 rounds - UFC 242
Sat 9/7		1003 Poirier / Nurmagomedov goes 5 rd dist		+130
4:00PM		1004 Fight won't go 5 rd distance		-170

Khabib is 30 years old and in his MMA prime. UNDEFEATED.. These are also things you need to consider when thinking of fading.. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Khab...agomedov-56035

But will he win by sub or by dec? Both are bad bets.

Handicap covers a wide dec, tko and sub, thats the only way you can play it, and be safe. Safe is good, were trying to win every god damn time.

[JIBBBY]

If Khabib wins this fight I'd like to see him fight Ben Askren at 170 in the future. I think that would be a fun match up. Of course Ben Askren still has to beat Masvidal which is no guarantee and no cake walk..

[unlearn]

If Khabib wins this fight I'd like to see him fight Ben Askren at 170 in the future. I think that would be a fun match up. Of course Ben Askren still has to beat Masvidal which is no guarantee and no cake walk..

Jibby how high are you right now? You know Masvidal took Askren's fukkin head off already

[Hugo de Naranja]

Do you mean Maia Jibby? I don’t see Askren getting a rematch with Masvidal any time soon.

[Hugo de Naranja]

no. I just said, hes chances should be slim, and the market agrees. Hoping for late stoppage for DP but its typical that Khabibs striking is even better than last time, and that he will outstrike DP. The threath of the takedown will make DPs striking 40% less effective just out of panic.

But why is it hilarious?

[bjpenn85]

But why is it hilarious?

Its funny how the public just writes him completely off considering how good he is. A person that know nothing about mma and see the odds would think that DP is trash and this is more of a gimme fight.

[UncleChael]

If Khabib wins this fight I'd like to see him fight Ben Askren at 170 in the future. I think that would be a fun match up. Of course Ben Askren still has to beat Masvidal which is no guarantee and no cake walk..

What Planet are you from Casual?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Its funny how the public just writes him completely off considering how good he is. A person that know nothing about mma and see the odds would think that DP is trash and this is more of a gimme fight.

Gotcha. Yeah I’d favor him against the vast majority of UFC Lightweights just not Khabib.

[Baraldsson]

I think Tony smashes Khabib. And I think Poirier has enough tools to get it done. I will be on Poirier here. Main Event Chael

Not sure he smashes Khabib, but definitely think Tony is the only genuine threat to him at 155. Dustin will give it a good shot but come up short, IMO.

There's quite a few at 170 who I think could cause Khabib problems (Woodley, Usman, Askren, maybe Colby) but I don't see him moving up except maybe for GSP.

[JIBBBY]

Jibby how high are you right now? You know Masvidal took Askren's fukkin head off already

Forgot ooops.. Morning brain freeze, just woke up when I posted that above..

That KO happened so fast I forgot it even happened!!! ..

Yes Masvidal laid out Ben Askren before the fight even started with that knee. Still like to see Askren fight Khabib.

[bjpenn85]

Gotcha. Yeah I’d favor him against the vast majority of UFC Lightweights just not Khabib.

Khabib looks bad in a interview, recently, take a look, from the 10 min mark https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukeTyPCoabQ

Ill say he looks lethargic, he struggles, and this is early in the weight cut, he may end up withdrawing. If hes struggling he may underperform.

[rocky mattioli]

Dustin will get grapple focked and probably sub'd out.. Will be an easier fight then most people think with Khabib's pressure, wrestling and ground game..

perusing Poirier`s record,i`m not seeing many dominant grapplers on his somewhat recent resume.......an aging jim miller might be the closest(majority decision)...to be fair,there aren`t many highly rated fighters at 155 who you could call predominantly grapplers....but not having seen much in the way of absolute high level grappling,i would think that might be a bit of a disadvantage for Poirier...nurmogomedov has seen mostly strikers in his run up to the title...a bit of a stretch and not a great analogy but,it`s like what we watched tonight in the bears/packers game...the trend in the nfl is to not play entire starting units much(or at all) in preseason.....they hold team vs team scrimmages but it`s just not the same...as we saw tonight,the defenses were light years ahead of the offenses...the offenses looked very shoddy and disjointed(at times it was like they`d never played with a 40 second clock)...maybe not allowing the 1st team offenses to get more "in game" snaps as a unit together was a mistake?(who knows)...will be interesting to see if the trend continues this weekend..

Poirier`s a tough guy. and anything can happen.....but styles make fights...there aren`t many strikers he can`t hang with(or beat)...but this is a different animal(the khabib comparisons to st pierre aren`t that far off)...all that said,retirement talk is never a good thing to hear...

g.l.,all

[PaperTrail07]

Ramos looks in crazy shape-dude could be a problem-

[JIBBBY]

MMA MANIA prelim write ups -



170 lbs.: Belal Muhammad vs. Takashi Sato

Belal Muhammad (15-3) had mixed success in his early Octagon career, winning “Fight of the Night” in his debut loss to Alan Jouban, but suffering a knockout defeat to Vicente Luque two fights later. He’s since found his stride with five wins in six fights, the sole loss to surging contender Geoff Neal.
“Remember the Name” stands one inch taller than Takashi Sato (15-2), but will give up one inch of reach.
Sato, a former Pancrase title challenger, joined the world’s largest fight promotion having knocked out five of his previous six opponents. Though he had some early issues against Ben Saunders, he made it six of seven via second-round elbows in Florida. 10 of his pro wins have come by form of knockout, eight of them in the first round.
Muhammad is no stranger to dealing with power strikers, and the oft-reckless Sato doesn’t seem to present any unfamiliar issues. Though Sato has more one-shot KO ability, Muhammad figures to have the technical boxing edge, an advantage compounded by the latter’s significant wrestling advantage.
Muhammad’s patience and ability to dictate where the fight takes place present a more convincing argument than Sato’s explosiveness. Barring an out-of-nowhere bomb from Sato, Muhammad turns in a customary workmanlike performance, mixing strikes and takedowns to claim a comfortable decision victory.
Prediction: Muhammad via unanimous decision
Related
Khabib Hints At Early Retirement: ‘I Don’t Have A Lot Of Fights Ahead’

170 lbs.: Nordine Taleb vs. Muslim Salikhov

Nordine Taleb’s (15-6) bonus-winning knockout of Danny Roberts gave way to two consecutive stoppage losses, including a come-from-behind technical knockout courtesy of Sean Strickland. He returned to action in May, defeating late replacement Kyle Prepolec in Ottawa.
He will have two inches of height and 4.5” of reach on the “King of Kung Fu.”
An 11-fight win streak that included several spinning kick finishes ensured that Muslim Salikhov (14-2) entered his UFC debut as a favorite, but the momentum wasn’t enough to save him from Alex Garcia’s submissions. He had a bit more success in his second bout, overcoming a massive height difference to knock out Ricky Rainey late in the second round.
This will be his first fight in almost 17 months because of drug test issues.
Salikhov is a beast of a kickboxer, but this doesn’t look terribly favorable for him. He was having issues with Rainey’s length early in the fight, and while Taleb isn’t as freakishly lanky as “The Sniper,” he does know how to use his considerable size to do work at range. Plus, Garcia showed that Salikhov’s grappling still isn’t quick up to snuff, an issue that Taleb ostensibly has the tools to exploit.
Taleb generally makes his living as a hulking kickboxer, but he can turn into a decent grinder when he wants to. Against an aging, rusty Salikhov, that seems to be just the ticket. Patient range striking and regular takedowns carry him to an aesthetically displeasing decision win.
Prediction: Taleb via unanimous decision
Related
Khabib Labels Ferguson Next Contender, Claims Poirier Is Better Than McGregor

185 lbs.: Omari Akhmedov vs. Zak Cummings

Omari Akhmedov (18-4-1) went 4-3 as a UFC Welterweight, handing Abdul Razak Alhassan his sole professional loss along the way, before returning to 185 in 2017 with a draw against Marvin Vettori. He missed all of 2018 because of injury, then took a decision over Tim Boetsch in March to extend his current streak to 3-0-1.
He’ll give up two inches of reach to Zak Cummings (23-6).
Cummings won six of nine during his own Welterweight tenure, which ended after a split decision loss to Michel Prazeres in May of 2018. He started his Middleweight run strong with a decision over Trevor Smith, which he followed up by dropping and tapping Trevin Giles six months later.
He has submitted 12 opponents as a professional, including three of his last five opponents.
Moving to Middleweight has not changed the book on Akhmedov — he’s got about 1.8 rounds of haymakers and takedowns in him, after which it’s a race to see whether his opponent can knock him out before losing a judges’ decision. The tough-as-nails Cummings looks poised to win that race. In addition to hitting hard enough to exploit Akhmedov’s shaky chin, Cummings is a sufficiently skilled wrestler to drain Akhmedov in grappling exchanges.
If Akhmedov wins this fight, it’s by 29-28 cards after barely escaping the third. Cummings is too good a finisher to let him do that; therefore, Akhmedov overpowers him in the early going before losing steam and falling victim to a big left hand.
Prediction: Cummings via third-round technical knockout
Related
Khabib: McGregor Rivalry Not Finished Until Someone Goes To Jail

155 lbs.: Don Madge vs. Fares Ziam

Don Madge (8-3-1) — a two-time EFC Lightweight champion — entered UFC in Oct. 2018 having never gone the distance. The trend continued in his debut, which saw him knock out Contender Series product Te Edwards with a second-round head kick and earn “Performance of the Night” in the process.
He has knocked out five professional opponents and submitted another three.
France’s Fares Ziam (10-2) rebounded from a 1-2 skid to win each of his last five, four of them by stoppage. The run includes a knockout of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veteran Abner Lloveras and, most recently, a guillotine finish of Taekwondo specialist Yassine Belhadj in February.
“Smile Killer” steps in for Magomed Mustafaev on just over two weeks’ notice.
This is a fun little mirror match; both men are >=6’ and fairly adept in both the striking and the wrestling. They even have similar flaws, as both have a habit of backing straight up when pressured. That said, while Ziam’s takedowns are a complicating factor, Madge appears to have the edge.
Ziam is just too hittable against a power-puncher of this caliber, and though he’s ostensibly the likelier of the two to end up in top position, Madge should be able to get to his feet or threaten with submissions as needed to force more striking exchanges. It won’t take too many exchanges for Madge to back him to the fence and tear him up on the inside.
Prediction: Madge via first-round technical knockout


125 lbs.: Joanne Calderwood vs. Andrea Lee

Joanne Calderwood (13-4) found immediate success upon her return to 125 pounds, tapping Kalindra Faria and taking an upset decision over Ariane Lipski in consecutive efforts. “JoJo” couldn’t quite make it three straight against Katlyn Chookagian, losing a narrow decision in Chicago last June.
She’ll give up four inches of reach to “KGB.”
Andrea Lee (11-2) was unsuccessful in her first bid at Invicta gold and suffered an upset submission loss to Sarah D’Alelio three fights later, but rattled off four straight wins to earn a spot in the Octagon. She has yet to taste defeat there, most recently defeating The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veteran Montana De La Rosa in June.
Four of her six professional stoppage wins have come by submission, three of them armbars.
Both of these women average an impressive amount of strikes per minute, have surprisingly stout wrestling games in their back pockets, and have developed into threats on the mat. It’s a toss-up that’ll most likely be decided by whomever is able to keep it at their preferred range.
That figures to be Lee, whose significant reach advantage will allow her to steer clear of Calderwood’s lethal clinch and whose scrambling ability should keep her off of her back for any length of time. Calderwood’s powerful kicks and high volume could sway a judge, but Lee should box her way to a narrow win.
Prediction: Lee via split decision
Related
Khabib Hints At Early Retirement: ‘I Don’t Have A Lot Of Fights Ahead’

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145 lbs.: Zubaira Tukhugov vs. Lerone Murphy

Zubaira Tukhugov (18-4) built up some early Octagon momentum with three consecutive victories, extending his win streak to nine and setting up a clash with fellow prospect Renato Moicano. “Warrior” wound up on the wrong side of a split decision, after which a failed drug test and the UFC 229 fiasco (details) kept him out of action since that defeat.
This will be his first fight in more than three years.
Lerone Murphy (8-0) went from unbeaten amateur to professional in 2016, fighting in various promotions in his native England. His most recent effort saw him snap a two-fight decision streak with a first-round knockout of Manolo Scianna in May.
Five of his professional wins have come by form of knockout.
Murphy is a quality pickup for UFC, a tall, powerful striker who reminds me of a slightly less wrestle-heavy Leon Edwards. He’s got a nice array of kicks, powerful elbows on the inside, and solid clinch and top games to complete the ensemble.
All things being equal, the heavy-handed Tukhugov would still have the edge with his aggression and wrestling. Thing is, he’s been out for three years and underperformed against both Moicano and Philippe Nover, the latter of whom he should have beaten with ease. I like Murphy for the upset here, using his height advantage to keep Tukhugov at bay and walk away with a competitive decision.
Prediction: Murphy via unanimous decision
Related
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135 lbs.: Liana Jojua vs. Sarah Moras

Georgia’s Liana Jojua (7-2) rebounded from a two-fight skid to submit her next four opponents in a round apiece, including two in less than one minute. This earned her a shot at top Russian prospect Marina Mokhnatkina, whose submission attack Jojua survived en route to a majority decision victory.
Her five submission wins include four by armbar.
A semifinalist on TUF 18, Sarah Moras (5-5) picked up wins in two of her first three Octagon appearances, including an upset armbar of Ashlee Evans-Smith. She’s not tasted victory since, dropping three straight and suffering her first career (technical) knockout loss to Macy Chiasson in May.
She stands three inches taller than Jojua at 5’7.”
Moras is strangely memorable to me, being a poster child for what happens when you have great Brazilian jiu-jitsu and sub-par wrestling. She’s not good enough off of her back to make up for it, either, and she’s yet to really hold her own in the striking.
That’s not to say things are all bleak for her — Jojua gave up some early takedowns to Mokhnatkina and spent a decent amount of time stuck on her back when Mokhnatkina didn’t overextend looking for submissions. Still, Jojua’s striking edge and submission defense should give her the edge. Hard one-two combinations and low kicks set the pace on the feet, making up for what time Jojua spends on her back and earning her the nod.
Prediction: Jojua via unanimous decision
Related
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155 lbs.: Ottman Azaitar vs. Teemu Packalen (8-2)

Ottman Azaitar (11-0) — whose brother Abu competes in the Octagon as a Middleweight — claimed the Brave CF Lightweight title in Nov. 2017 with a nasty body kick knockout of Alejandro Martinez. Nine months later, he moved up in weight to face Daniel Kokora, whom he stopped in 36 seconds for his seventh career (technical) knockout.
At 5’7,” he stands four inches shorter than Finland’s Teemu Packalen (8-2).
Packalen rebounded from his short-notice debut loss to Mickael Lebout with a 24-second submission of Thibault Gouti in London, earning “Performance of the Night” in the process. His subsequent fight with Marc Diakiese was similarly brief but far less successful, as “Bonecrusher” caught him with a lethal overhand right just 30 seconds in.
This will be his first fight since that loss in March 2017.
Azaitar follows a similar gameplan as his brother, hurling haymaker flurries or threatening with high-amplitude wrestling with that doesn’t work. He does do a lot of things better than Abu, though — Ottman doesn’t neglect the body and has shown a willingness to jab when he starts losing steam. He won’t be elite, but he’s good for more than just local mismatches.
Packalen is the better grappler of the two, but the strength disparity and Azaitar’s own wrestling make it unlikely that the Finn’s lethal submissions will come into play. Azaitar exploits Packalens’s rust to put him away with a punching flurry partway through the first.
Prediction: Azaitar via first-round technical knockout

[Teem]

Ramos looks in crazy shape-dude could be a problem-

Yeah I was gonna put Makhachev in a parlay but I don't know anymore after seeing Ramos...

[PaperTrail07]

yeah laying juice against him seems like something you should pass on lol....im w ya

Yeah I was gonna put Makhachev in a parlay but I don't know anymore after seeing Ramos...

[PaperTrail07]

Still cant believe I'm getting Ferreria at +225----even fight at best and I actually favor him....

VERY INTERESTING FIGHT

[JAKEPEAVY21]

yeah laying juice against him seems like something you should pass on lol....im w ya

already locked in hoping for the best

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/0f0e0b9cDA5bWlYcDNyUXlaN3pIelZicDIrUT09/r/2007162/

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/7c06908VEhoTmtiTE43OGpSTTVBclRETmVrUT09/r/2007162/

[Teem]

You guys think Muhammad takes a pretty safe decision? Sato has some power and probably his only chance but doesn't Muhammad have a solid chin?

[PaperTrail07]

Muh cruises IMO

You guys think Muhammad takes a pretty safe decision? Sato has some power and probably his only chance but doesn't Muhammad have a solid chin?

[PaperTrail07]

Very nice---could always toss a small ramos KO hedge

already locked in hoping for the best

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/0f0e0b9cDA5bWlYcDNyUXlaN3pIelZicDIrUT09/r/2007162/

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/7c...T09/r/2007162/

[Hugo de Naranja]

Still cant believe I'm getting Ferreria at +225----even fight at best and I actually favor him....

VERY INTERESTING FIGHT

Totally disagree. Taisumov is going to KO/TKO him early after hurting him with a Counter Straight Right. Terrible style matchup for Ferreira.

[Teem]

Still cant believe I'm getting Ferreria at +225----even fight at best and I actually favor him....

VERY INTERESTING FIGHT

Hmm, why do you favor him? I don't think it's close. The only person with success at taking Taisumov down was Prazeres. And on the feet Taisumov is a beast with kicks and punches. Has KO power. He's really good.

[Teem]

Totally disagree. Taisumov is going to KO/TKO him early after hurting him with a Counter Straight Right. Terrible style matchup for Ferreira.

Ha

[Teem]

Madge or Barboza in my parlay?

[PaperTrail07]

madge

Madge or Barboza in my parlay?

[PaperTrail07]

don't forget our point bet LOL.....Ferreira is arguably in the best shape/peak of his career.....I simply don't think enough people are respecting him--this is not the Ferreria of 3-4 years ago....even $ I would be on the other side honestly but 2.25:1 All Day...

Totally disagree. Taisumov is going to KO/TKO him early after hurting him with a Counter Straight Right. Terrible style matchup for Ferreira.

[bjpenn85]

We dont know anything about Madge or the frenchman. The less you know, the higher the risk. I say Barboza 100%. Its not like im sold on either guy to win, but barboza then you at least know that if Felder doesnt apply a "im coming to swarm barboza" type of fight he will easily loose to barboza, or land a KO punch. I dont think he will win a dec.

Madge...he won against te edwards, that is. Thats what we know about him. How the hell can one bet Madge at current price with that being the only thing u know. But he sure easily gets taken down, he likes to play in the guard, hes from south africa who has a terrible track record in the UFC. Lost 3 times against the same dude, who tha fakkkkkkkkkkk loses to the same guy 3 times? Ziam busted up a dude in glory, has stellar takedows, really smart dude, its a matchup with a laundry list of x-factors.

with other words barboza would be the best play.

[PaperTrail07]

Ferreria is a sleeper on the mat a well

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Very nice---could always toss a small ramos KO hedge

maybe with some SBR Sportsbook freeplay