UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier (September 07, 2019)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-per-view 2 pm ET
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Dustin Poirier (for lightweight title)
Edson Barboza vs Paul Felder
Islam Makhachev vs Davi Ramos
Shamil Abdurakhimov vs Curtis Blaydes
Diego Ferreira vs Mairbek Taisumov

FX 12:00 pm ET
Khakid Taha vs Bruno Silva
Don Madge vs Fares Ziam
Ottman Azaitar vs Teemu Pacckalen
Liana Jojua vs Sarah Moras

ESPN+ 10:15 am ET
Belal Muhammad vs Takashi Sato
Muslim Salikhov vs Nordine Taleb
Omari Akhmedov vs Zak Cummings
Joanne Calderwood vs Andrea Lee
Lerone Murphy vs Zubaira Tukhugov

[Unwritten Law]

Khabib -336
Takashi Sato +269

[UncleChael]

Can't wait!!! Khabib bleeds like everyone else.

[fudy213]

I like Islam Machechev at -220.

[bjpenn85]

I like Islam Machechev at -220.

I might like him as well. I can remember i was very surprised he couldnt finish Austin Hubbard. Who is that guy anyway? And now he meet makachev, but if its a pure strikeing contest is Islam that much better? What do i get at -220 in a striking war? overall he should win, in clinch, better wrestling etc, but worst case scenario in a pure strikeing contest is it worth to pay -220 for Islam? Thats what am thinking....what do you think?

[U2.5]

the eagle will soar. Too bad those odds aren't better. Hopefully the props will be decent

[Pinoy-T-X]

Wo do you guys like on Felder vs Barboza?

[bjpenn85]

Wo do you guys like on Felder vs Barboza?

barboza, but felder is less stupid now, then he was. Before he had fighter iq of 0. I think hes smarter and overall better. But he still doesnt have the skills of Barboza, he still isnt as good. But compared to their first fight, Felder is slightly better.

In their first fight who ended 29-28, Barboza was quite the bit better the 2 round he won, im not sure i agree with the judges awarding felder with that one round either. This time around i expect Felder to actually win one round but barboza will win two rounds.

[amrit]

You guys think Khabib has value still at -350?

[bjpenn85]

You guys think Khabib has value still at -350?

betting against poirier is a bad idea. Its a fight you dont bet.

Take Islam. Free money. Davi Ramos is a complete disappointment. Bad footwork, only throw 1 max 2 shots. Scared. Bad cardio i can give you 10 more reasons. Its a mismatch at least. He needs to be on Islams back, but even then, im not sure he can submit the world champion in Sambo. Part from that Islam is better everywhere. easy 3 unit play for me.

[JC2008]

betting against poirier is a bad idea. Its a fight you dont bet..

- Speak for yourself pal.

[bjpenn85]

- Speak for yourself pal.

Can you consider it being a bad bet?

[Pinoy-T-X]

Since this is in Dubai, I might parlay all Muslim fighters

[JC2008]

Can you consider it being a bad bet?

I think if you're gonna take Khabib you're probably gonna deal with props but I definitely think the ml can be good parlay sauce, especially since week 1 of the NFL is the next day. I also question if the climate in Abu Dhabi will be an issue for Poirier.

[bjpenn85]

I think if you're gonna take Khabib you're probably gonna deal with props but I definitely think the ml can be good parlay sauce, especially since week 1 of the NFL is the next day. I also question if the climate in Abu Dhabi will be an issue for Poirier.

I see three other bets on that card as better deals. For -300 i need the fighter to be significantly better everywhere. Think if the fight ends up like Al iaquinta? Id say Poirier is a lot better than Iaquinta and that fight was close....you just need a guy to be slightly better than Al for that fight to be very very tricky for Nurma, if i was to play devils advocate.....

[JC2008]

I see three other bets on that card as better deals. For -300 i need the fighter to be significantly better everywhere. Think if the fight ends up like Al iaquinta? Id say Poirier is a lot better than Iaquinta and that fight was close....you just need a guy to be slightly better than Al for that fight to be very very tricky for Nurma, if i was to play devils advocate.....

I will say I agree about Islam over Ramos.

[bjpenn85]

I will say I agree about Islam over Ramos.

I have a week off now and i have the time to cap fight for all of september, hadnt had time to cap adequately in a long while.

Islams price sucks a bit, but its still ok as he can dominate potentially on the ground and standing, and pretty much dictate where the fight takes place. This is a fight who may seem close in 3/4th of round 1. But in round 2 and 3 be very clear whos the better fighter.

I think actually Islam can finish Ramos as well.

I was very disappointed over Ramos when i watched tape. Hes a big disappointment. A classical example of a fighter with good credentials who cant really put it together. Should shift camp, head coach, i dont know. Guy is athletic, fast, world champion, why do you then overall suck?

I just shook my head during all of his fights....embarrassment

PS:This is relative, obviously, he is an outstanding fighter from the outside looking in, but for us whos deep in the MMA game, hes an embarrassment, FYI.

[bjpenn85]

Fares Ziam opens at +250. I capped him at -130 favourite, obvious error imo.

[bjpenn85]

2.30 still...i probably go ahead and say he should be a -200 fav. No man from South Africa should ever be a fav against a really good grappler from europe, with good standup!!!

Fares makes fighting look really really easy. Im sure he can go 10 rounds. Big fan!

[U2.5]

2.30 still...i probably go ahead and say he should be a -200 fav. No man from South Africa should ever be a fav against a really good grappler from europe, with good standup!!!

Fares makes fighting look really really easy. Im sure he can go 10 rounds. Big fan!

I like where your head is at my friend. You're sharp

[bjpenn85]

I like where your head is at my friend. You're sharp

I bet him from +250, last time i hit him were at +130. So i put a total of 400 dollars on him.

But seriously though....guy is super smart. He doesnt take risk at all, he just pot shot at distance....wait for someone to get in, kabam takedown. And when down he is very calm, just flows into positions, effortless. I dont care about level of opponent, skill is inherent. Connor was also a cage warrior fighter at a point.

This guy, will and should easily take this south african "superstar" down, and just make him look stupid.

5dimes been super sharp with all their lines today, but here came their first miss. And not unexpectedly, because KOs they sell, they send shockwave through a division, but strategical grappling round after round....who cares?

Us....we do.

[amrit]

betting against poirier is a bad idea. Its a fight you dont bet.

Take Islam. Free money. Davi Ramos is a complete disappointment. Bad footwork, only throw 1 max 2 shots. Scared. Bad cardio i can give you 10 more reasons. Its a mismatch at least. He needs to be on Islams back, but even then, im not sure he can submit the world champion in Sambo. Part from that Islam is better everywhere. easy 3 unit play for me.

I'll probably be on Khabib and Islam parlay -125 for 3-4 units.

[bjpenn85]

I'll probably be on Khabib and Islam parlay -125 for 3-4 units.

Khabib is very expensive...very very expensive. I dont like it.

[PaperTrail07]

Ferreria +225 Consider me In lol...

[PaperTrail07]

What a card

[Hugo de Naranja]

I see three other bets on that card as better deals. For -300 i need the fighter to be significantly better everywhere. Think if the fight ends up like Al iaquinta? Id say Poirier is a lot better than Iaquinta and that fight was close....you just need a guy to be slightly better than Al for that fight to be very very tricky for Nurma, if i was to play devils advocate.....

Iaquinta has much better TDD imo

[Hugo de Naranja]

Ferreria +225 Consider me In lol...

What’s his best path here?

[PaperTrail07]

KO

, Decision-any fuckkkn way he wants....+225 is WAY to much here..

What’s his best path here?

[Hugo de Naranja]

KO

, Decision-any fuckkkn way he wants....+225 is WAY to much here..

I’ll take Taisumov for some BetPoints.

[bjpenn85]

Ferreria +225 Consider me In lol...

Crazy town. Thumbs up from here man!!

[bjpenn85]

Iaquinta has much better TDD imo

That might be right. Current Iaquinta might have better tdd. But he was always taken down before, kevin lee, chiesa are people i can think of on the top of my head. But Iaquintas current tdd, on the basis of stopping khabib, may be the best in the division. I just dont know if its achievable for Dustin to get on Iaquintas level within time. Is it possible to have a whole camp training tdd, and become a lot better, to the extent you can stuff Khabib? Most likely not. But i still wouldnt bet khabib at -330

[Pinoy-T-X]

But i still wouldnt bet khabib at -330

How bout at -290?

[bjpenn85]

How bout at -290?

I would go for handicap and squeeze out a -200 line, as the dec may easily be loopsided in favour of Khabib.

ML -290 its so out of the question.......in another galaxay, fakk no, although its Khabib.

Poirier is dangeroux my friend!

-290 is wrrrrrrrrrroooooong. Its not worth it. Andreea Lee, Edson Barboza, Islam ON THE SAME CARD, no need for risking money on any -300 favourite.

But if you must, go for handicap -200 or better and risk less. Khabib always wins you a handicap....if you dont like the handicap, then MAYBE you shouldnt even bet him? Because betting a person at -300 you should be VEEEEEEEERY confident he will smash his opponent.

So handicap him and get a nice little line there, thats my tip

[Pinoy-T-X]

I would go for handicap and squeeze out a -200 line, as the dec may easily be loopsided in favour of Khabib.

ML -290 its so out of the question.......in another galaxay, fakk no, although its Khabib.

Poirier is dangeroux my friend!

-290 is wrrrrrrrrrroooooong. Its not worth it. Andreea Lee, Edson Barboza, Islam ON THE SAME CARD, no need for risking money on any -300 favourite.

But if you must, go for handicap -200 or better and risk less. Khabib always wins you a handicap....if you dont like the handicap, then MAYBE you shouldnt even bet him? Because betting a person at -300 you should be VEEEEEEEERY confident he will smash his opponent.

So handicap him and get a nice little line there, thats my tip

Thanks for your input.
i just think Khabib will smash him , hulk style.
if for some weird reason he doesn’t and it goes to decision, I think Muslim fighters wont be robbed in The Middle East, just my take mate.

[bjpenn85]

Thanks for your input.
i just think Khabib will smash him , hulk style.
if for some weird reason he doesn’t and it goes to decision, I think Muslim fighters wont be robbed in The Middle East, just my take mate.

You wont get robbed, but poirier may finish khabib late. Even Khabib can get tired round 4 and round 5 after going 3-0 the first three rounds. In a three round fight -300 isnt the worst price...but youre letting poirier getting another 2 rounds, that should make you think twice. doesnt poirier have more than a 2 in 10 chance of winning in a five round fight?


Off course its wrong, thats why you shouldnt make the bet, imo.

But good luck, i hope you win obviously, its only one mans opinion anyway.