UFC on ESPN+ 9: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy (May 04, 2019)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 8:00 pm ET
Al Iaquinta vs Donald Cerrone
Derek Brunson vs Elias Theodorou
Shane Burgos vs Cub Swanson
Merab Dvalishvili vs Brad Katona
Walt Harris vs Sergey Spivak
Marc-Andre Barriault vs Andrew Sanchez

ESPN+ 5:00 pm ET
Macy Chiasson vs Sarah Moras
Vince Morales vs Aiemann Zahabi
Kyle Prepolec vs Nordine Taleb
Kyle Nelson vs Matt Sayles
Juan Adams vs Arjan Bhullar
Mitch Gagnon vs Cole Smith

[Sanity Check]

Some of the favorites should be underdogs.

[Teem]

Yeah idk about this card. Just trying to fight a pair for a parlay right now.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

on the Iaquinta train, should be a good fight but going with Al here.

[Pinoy-T-X]

Some of the favorites should be underdogs.

Which ones?

[Demonata]

Liking cub swanson so far...

[Sanity Check]

Which ones?

Initial lean is towards Aiemann Zahabi and Merab Dvashvili being flipped odds.

Don't quote me. I haven't begun capping this event, yet.

[firekillex]

Brunson gonna smoke that boy

[JIBBBY]

Yup on Al also, Cowboy is fade material these days. He's not the same old Cowboy anymore.. Chin is getting soft.. Al probably drops him.

[Demonata]

Brunson gonna smoke that boy

I cant stand theodoreu!!!

[HurlSweatPants]

Yup on Al also, Cowboy is fade material these days. He's not the same old Cowboy anymore.. Chin is getting soft.. Al probably drops him.

I am on Al too, although I have to disagree with this though. He's 3-1 in his last 4. Lone loss was against Edwards, and the two guys that beat him (Mas and Till) in 2017 just fought for a title shot.

He's definitely a different fighter since those loses too. He is utilized more knees in the last 2 fights that are stuffing take downs, and his BJJ was on display against Perry. You can say what you want about the Meideros win, but before that fight he was close to even money as well. He was +175 against MP and also a dog in the Alexander fight, so he is a good haul and generally undervalued.

If anything his body is open to the big shot (Till, Pettis), and Al was tagging the shit out of Lee. That and Al's TDD defense is why I am leaning Al. It should definitely take most of the time standing, and I think that favors Al power and aggression. He stalks everyone not named Khabib, and Cowboy had pressure dealing with Till and Mas on the back foot. I'll be rooting for my money, but I couldn't be mad if Cowboy took it.

[jacharron17]

On the Over for Iaquinta and Cerrone. Both fighters are tough b*stards.

[jacharron17]

Anything above +120 for Cerrone is a gift. This is pretty damn near a 50/50 fight (maybe the slightest of edges to Cerrone cuz of his knockout power). Too bad the odds swayed now.

[jacharron17]

I like Theodorou's chances against Brunson. The fight should go the distance and I imagine he will get the home crowd decision by the judges.

[Squareguy]

Here we go...first event that I'll be betting on in a very long time. I'm just going to spit my thoughts out.

Iaquinta vs Cerrone is a 5 rounder and Raging al will bring the pressure for all 5 rounds. He's an effective counter puncher, tough, gritty and he just beat a Bangkok ready Kevin Lee. They also have a shared opponent in Masvidal who TKO'd cowboy and dropped a decision to Al. That said, Cowboy has looked fantastic in his last two fights, but I don't think he'll have a chance to win outside of the first two rounds.

1 U on Raging Al.


Brad Katona is worth a shot here at +135. He's 13-0 including exhibitions and amateur, and the guys he fought aren't complete slackers (one of his TUF opponents is now 11-0 pro and 2-0 in the UFC). He has decent jiu jitsu off his back and Merab is going to take him down and not do a lot of damage. If you wanna see a bizarre ending, check out simon vs Merab.

1 U on Katona

[firekillex]

I like Theodorou's chances against Brunson. The fight should go the distance and I imagine he will get the home crowd decision by the judges.

hes one of the worst fighters ive ever seen tbh, if you can be aggressive against him you have a good chance... Brunson needs win badly and i think hell bring a more aggressive style out this fight.. Elias does have a good chin , but i dont see him winning this fight other then a hometown robbery, hes worse in every aspect of MMA

[rsynweap84]

Sorry. Ain't buyin it, I know Cowboy has had some ups and downs but he has looked great in his last fights. yea Al can pressure and bang, but he won't win on the ground, Cowboy in the clench is better, and can trip to go to the ground, and he can still kick, which he prolly will to stifle any pressure if he has a brain left.

Goin' pretty much all in this one...

Cowboy (ITD)
Brunson (ML)...leaning heavily moneyline, ITD might be wishful thinkin'
Cub (ML)...again, ITD wishful, but possibly a small bet on all 3 ITD...why not?

[Teem]

You guys are swaying me to bet Al and Brunson. Brunson is the safer play though. I agree he will come out aggressive looking to end this quick. I see Al and Cowboy going 5 rounds.

[Demonata]

Sorry. Ain't buyin it, I know Cowboy has had some ups and downs but he has looked great in his last fights. yea Al can pressure and bang, but he won't win on the ground, Cowboy in the clench is better, and can trip to go to the ground, and he can still kick, which he prolly will to stifle any pressure if he has a brain left.

Goin' pretty much all in this one...

Cowboy (ITD)
Brunson (ML)...leaning heavily moneyline, ITD might be wishful thinkin'
Cub (ML)...again, ITD wishful, but possibly a small bet on all 3 ITD...why not?

Those are all great picks and good insight!

[PaperTrail07]

Agree.....besides Brunsons Wild rush in.....he does not offer much....this has Theodorou by decision written all over it....

I like Theodorou's chances against Brunson. The fight should go the distance and I imagine he will get the home crowd decision by the judges.

[jacharron17]

Agree.....besides Brunsons Wild rush in.....he does not offer much....this has Theodorou by decision written all over it....

If Brunson wins, it probably would be ITD. Although Theodorou hasn't been stopped. Guess we will have to see this Saturday!

[UncleChael]

Cowboy gonna fuckk him upp!! Let's gooooo

[PaperTrail07]

It would HAVE TO BE lol....this is true......but we will take our chances GL w your plays

If Brunson wins, it probably would be ITD. Although Theodorou hasn't been stopped. Guess we will have to see this Saturday!

[jacharron17]

It would HAVE TO BE lol....this is true......but we will take our chances GL w your plays

Thanks haha! BOL on your plays too!

[TPowell]

Big day for me. I got 4 units on Carolina against Cachoeira from BetOnline at the opener at a combined +225 and she's now a -155 favorite. For this card, I have...

Matt Sayles -155 for 2.5 units
Andrew Sanchez -115 for 2.3 units
Nordine Taleb -105 for 1.05 units

My full card is below with all my other pending plays

https://www.betmma.tips/TPowell90

[Hugo de Naranja]

Won't have much time to cap for this card. Who are people liking?

[jacharron17]

Big day for me. I got 4 units on Carolina against Cachoeira from BetOnline at the opener at a combined +225 and she's now a -155 favorite. For this card, I have...

Matt Sayles -155 for 2.5 units
Andrew Sanchez -115 for 2.3 units
Nordine Taleb -105 for 1.05 units

My full card is below with all my other pending plays

https://www.betmma.tips/TPowell90

You got a steal for Nordine Taleb at that price, congrats!

[TPowell]

You got a steal for Nordine Taleb at that price, congrats!

One unit is so annoying though. I could have unloaded like 2-3 more easily but I wasn't as prepared as I should be and didn't have an estimated line ready

[Demonata]

Big day for me. I got 4 units on Carolina against Cachoeira from BetOnline at the opener at a combined +225 and she's now a -155 favorite. For this card, I have...

Matt Sayles -155 for 2.5 units
Andrew Sanchez -115 for 2.3 units
Nordine Taleb -105 for 1.05 units

My full card is below with all my other pending plays

https://www.betmma.tips/TPowell90

Wait you got nordine taleb at -105 and they are -326 now?

[TPowell]

Wait you got nordine taleb at -105 and they are -326 now?

Yep I get most all openers since I have alerts and accounts at 5D and BO

[bjpenn85]

Yep I get most all openers since I have alerts and accounts at 5D and BO

1 unit only at that price?

[bjpenn85]

Big day for me. I got 4 units on Carolina against Cachoeira from BetOnline at the opener at a combined +225 and she's now a -155 favorite. For this card, I have...

Matt Sayles -155 for 2.5 units
Andrew Sanchez -115 for 2.3 units
Nordine Taleb -105 for 1.05 units

My full card is below with all my other pending plays

https://www.betmma.tips/TPowell90

All of these bets are really good bets. Dont see how any of these can loose. Sanchez is a lot better, nordine a lot better, sayles also just better in every area. And you nailed the price.

[TPowell]

1 unit only at that price?

I didn't have a full breakdown on prepolec at the time. Literally watched tape and thought about it while the price was skyrocketing. That's why it's dangerous not to have prices already made out

[bjpenn85]

I didn't have a full breakdown on prepolec at the time. Literally watched tape and thought about it while the price was skyrocketing. That's why it's dangerous not to have prices already made out

I find it hard to concentrate about next week card...i could but i never seem to get it together. I took Carlos Diego ferreira at -110 though, so sometimes am able to put money on the obvious matchups, but yes, im also too slow.

[Teem]

Looking for a solid pick to combine with Sayles. Any thoughts on who I should pair him up with? Was thinking Ragin' Al, Sanchez, or Harris.