I used to bet MMA all the time quite a few years ago. But I lost interest and I’ve just kind of been betting casually for awhile. Well my interest has peaked again and I’ve been watching most of the fight cards and lurking on the forum. I want to get more serious with my bets and figure I should keep an accurate record. I’ve upped my unit size (bet, not rooster) and tightened my bet scale. Unit is a simple $50 bet for me and I want to keep bets within a 1-5u range with 5u being my max on top plays. Feel free to ridicule and shame when I’m buried after 2 events.
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UFC 235
Tyron Woodley -150 (3u to win 2u)
Ben Askren -3.5pts -130 (2.6u to win 2u)
Weili Zhang -130 (5.2u to win 4u)
Zhang ITD +333 (.5u to win 1.665u)
Jones ITD/Askren/Chiasson (2u to win 2.08u)Comment -
welcome back HOFF glComment -
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Hurl I saw u were asking about Chiasson. She’s really just parlay fodder. Wouldn’t bet straight obviously, but TUF winner with size advantage and coming down to 135.Comment -
Almost forgot. Not my bet, but a straight tail on Hugo.
Diego Sanchez +285 (1u to win 2.85u)Comment -
Awkward and uncomfortable HOFF memes from 2009 say: "hi".
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Had very little time to cap fights this week. Couldn't find anything I really liked. I do like Rothwell but not betting it after a 3 year layoff. Looked at the Reneau/Kunitskaya but can't see a discernible advantage. Reneau submission seems possible but couldn't pull the trigger. One small bet on the main event. Terrible line compared to others but need some action! Will probably be looking for some live betting.
UFC on ESPN+ 4
Junior Dos Santos -5.5pts -175 (1.75u to win 1u)Comment -
Thanks guys. Will be nice to sit back and watch today and not be super stressed on bets.Comment -
What is Junior Dos Santos -5.5 pts?Comment -
It is a handicapped line that is mainly used for scorecards. If either fighter finishes the fight the -5.5 or +5.5 is meaningless, the fighter that finished wins the bet. If you take the JDS fight, for example, he won bc of a finish, but had the fight went to a decision, he would need to win by 5.5 points.
If the judges went 48-47 X 3(amount of judges), Dos Santos at -5.5 would be a loss, and Lewis at +5.5 would cash.
If the judges go 48-47, 49-46, and 49-46, Dos Santos would be +7 and cash.
Hope that helps, the main event was a perfect ex. of a great time to use it, and Hoff nailed it. No way Lewis will ever win a points game, he was either KO or bust.Comment -
Because hes savage. He knows that theres a chance dos santos going the distance, anything can happen in mma, very unlikely scenarios happen frequently, then he would have lost everything. But he knew it would be a loopsided dec, then he would cash, if dos santos win inside, it will cash, and the price wasnt that bad, better than playing straight at -200. He found a middle ground.Comment -
This pretty much sums it up. Dos Santos went 5 rounds with Rothwell and Ivanov. So there was a scenario where I could see him striking, moving, and avoiding Lewis' power for 5 rounds. And shit, Lewis/Ngannou went all 3 rounds. I knew there was little to no chance Lewis won by dec, and a better probability that he wouldn't even win a round. So it was better price than Dos Santos straight up. Only way I lose is if Lewis lands the knockout haymaker.Comment -
No no no. The handicap is a total of 5,5 points on all judges scorecard. So only one judge needs to have 50-45 doesnt matter if judge 2 and 3 have it 48-47, its still going to cash. You didnt know that, thats fine.
And lewis was never, EVER EVER EVER, to win one single round in this fight, except for the round he knock you the penetrate out in. So this was as good as a lock, as long as JDS didnt get put out cold. This kind of fights are ideal, if youre quick on the trigger and get the Lewis KO at a good price (as hedge), and at the same time can get a good number on your handicap, its a 99,9% strategy.Comment -
I thought I explained that well enough, guess not.Comment -
That seems to be the consensus Enfuego, I would definitely hedge No Time 1st round if pulling the trigger. I also like Quiones game, might be overmatched, but not at -325 for me.Comment -
I see Till totally overwhelming Masvidal and disposing of him just like Cerrone in Liverpool.Comment
