A Hopeless Degen's Picks

**HurlSweatPants** · 02-09-19, 02:30 PM

BOL, had the notion to go with Yahya when he was a heavier dog but the line passed me by.

**Degenregen** · 02-09-19, 03:52 PM

Thanks, had my eye on Yahya for a month as well. Almost second guessed myself when the line moved away. When youre a degen passing is just not an option sometimes.

NBA
San Antonio Spurs 1Q +3 -115 to win .5
Atlanta Hawks 1Q pk -105 to win .5
Chicago Bulls 1Q +1 -115 to win .5
Houston Rockets 1Q and 1H both -125 to win .5 each

Adding to UFC
Jim Crute -140 to win .5
Devonte Smith -260 to win .25

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-09-19, 04:27 PM

Best of luck degen!

**Degenregen** · 02-09-19, 05:53 PM

Thanks Hugo, BOL on your plays as well. Love the Blessed avatar!

Threw .26 to win .20U on Houston full game, just because degens need something on the full game. I don't trust the rockets but I trust myself even less to not go betting something stupid like -400 full game if they are up big at half time.

**Degenregen** · 02-09-19, 06:07 PM

Spurs pk -118 to win .5 3rd quarter. Nice result in the 1st qtr, big 2nd qtr by Jazz so see value in this now. Should be good on action til ufc fires up now!

**Degenregen** · 02-09-19, 06:56 PM

Memphis Grizz 1Q pk -115 to win .5

**Degenregen** · 02-09-19, 11:17 PM

Too bad, was counting on Simon having bad TDD. Gotta think mullet man takes it.

Silva vs Adesanya goes 3 round distance +150 Risk 1U.

**Degenregen** · 02-10-19, 12:49 AM

7-5, +.5 U, 15.5 U. Just ate it on the Yahya play, Yahya had wins over sanders, Doane, Tanaka and Lopez all primarily wrestlers. Just could not get how Simon looked in that Merab fight, couldn't believe the crap that happened at the end of that fight and been looking to fade Simon ever since. Gotta say Simon has much better fight IQ than I thought. Did not penetrate with Yahya's guard at all.

Risking 2U on James Vick +110.

**Degenregen** · 02-10-19, 12:21 PM

Aljamain +160 risk .75u
Benito Lopez +205 risk 1u

Dont like either bet that much tbh. Locked them in fwiw.

Nba

76ers 1q -3 -110, to win .5u
76ers 1h -4.5 -110 to win .5u

**Degenregen** · 02-14-19, 01:34 AM

2/14
NBA
OKC 1H -1.5 -110 to win 1U

Espn 1
Alexandra Albu -123 to win 1U
Aljamain +120 risk .25

Got a better line on Aljo earlier, but that's what it is now. Didn't make sense to have a unit on Lopez but not Aljo. Albu is nuts and super aggressive. I was gonna bet on her anyway, at -123 I'll gladly lose my money watching this woman try and Diego 3-2 Whitmire.

**Degenregen** · 02-17-19, 08:57 PM

M. Jury -135 to win 1U

Bermudez is a stud, don't mind the Albu loss as much as the Lopez one. Don't think Lopez had much of a shot. Albu just looks green as fuk, wish that fought would have went longer.

**Degenregen** · 02-17-19, 10:11 PM

Velasquez -180 to win .70 U

Don't trust any of the main card dogs to be able to defend the grappling. So won't take any shots. Just hope Vick can save my night. Think Velasquez only loses by KO, this is obvious to him, and think he has the fight IQ to avoid disaster.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-17-19, 10:24 PM

Originally posted by Degenregen

Velasquez -180 to win .70 U

Don't trust any of the main card dogs to be able to defend the grappling. So won't take any shots. Just hope Vick can save my night. Think Velasquez only loses by KO, this is obvious to him, and think he has the fight IQ to avoid disaster.

Velasquez also got subbed against Fabricio Werdum but that's pretty unlikely here

**Degenregen** · 02-17-19, 10:36 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Velasquez also got subbed against Fabricio Werdum but that's pretty unlikely here

In this fight I mean. Think it's possible Ngannou can win by sub too, he has some sub wins, but think it only happens if he rocks Cain first and Cain does the same thing where he goes for a takedown in a daze and accidently lands in something.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-17-19, 11:25 PM

Originally posted by Degenregen

In this fight I mean. Think it's possible Ngannou can win by sub too, he has some sub wins, but think it only happens if he rocks Cain first and Cain does the same thing where he goes for a takedown in a daze and accidently lands in something.

Gotcha. I'm hoping for the early Ngannou finish but I think Cain takes over if the fight goes long.

**Degenregen** · 02-18-19, 12:49 AM

- little less than six units on thread now. 1-5. Would have liked to see if Ngannou could defend a takedown or not out of curiousity but bad luck always follows bad capping. Wiped myself out besides my ufc bets the other day on new zealand womens basketball. Will be back someday, probably to post more hopeless losers if I can get some $

**Degenregen** · 02-28-19, 03:45 AM

Cody Garbrandt -143 to win 1.5U
Kamaru Usman +135 risk 1U
Edmen Shahbazyan -130 to win 1U

Gotta get those paychecks back.

**Degenregen** · 03-03-19, 02:05 AM

Fuggin neck tattoo, ended up re-upping with everything I had, and then some... could not do a thing right in the last few hours of NBA last night, threw the rest away on a korean basketball game and mexican tennis, even though I shouldn't be doing that shit. Re-upped and made a Shahbaz Garbrandt parlay to get it back late last night. Down another 9 units because of it. Knew it was probably a bad idea this morning, did the similar shit last year in the ufc event that culminated with the 2nd fight with Dillashaw. Knew it was really ****** when Garbrandt started looking like the leg kick affected him.

Tilt is awful. Would never be throwing away more than a tenth of a unit on some bullshit like Korean Basketball when my head was right. In order to win in sportsbetting you need to be clever with your bets and strategy I believe, not much room for impatience and frustration. Would take Millender next week, but ehh too damn penetrating broke to even risk 2.35 U.

Made this thread to be a little more careful, but ended being dumber than I ever was. No discipline, so most disciplined thing I can do is take a break for awhile.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-03-19, 03:00 AM

Originally posted by Degenregen

Fuggin neck tattoo, ended up re-upping with everything I had, and then some... could not do a thing right in the last few hours of NBA last night, threw the rest away on a korean basketball game and mexican tennis, even though I shouldn't be doing that shit. Re-upped and made a Shahbaz Garbrandt parlay to get it back late last night. Down another 9 units because of it. Knew it was probably a bad idea this morning, did the similar shit last year in the ufc event that culminated with the 2nd fight with Dillashaw. Knew it was really ****** when Garbrandt started looking like the leg kick affected him.

Tilt is awful. Would never be throwing away more than a tenth of a unit on some bullshit like Korean Basketball when my head was right. In order to win in sportsbetting you need to be clever with your bets and strategy I believe, not much room for impatience and frustration. Would take Millender next week, but ehh too damn penetrating broke to even risk 2.35 U.

Made this thread to be a little more careful, but ended being dumber than I ever was. No discipline, so most disciplined thing I can do is take a break for awhile.

Like you said, sometimes the best option is to take a break and clear your head. I'm sure you'll be back strong sometime soon.

**Degenregen** · 03-03-19, 04:58 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Like you said, sometimes the best option is to take a break and clear your head. I'm sure you'll be back strong sometime soon.

You’re killing it Hugo. I would just follow you but I’ve got 5 dollar prop limits on 5D.

I had three years of continuous success pretty much week to week which maybe isnt so good because now I wont give up.

So hard to get out of the funk. When youre doing well seems like you just need to do the simple things and seems so easy.

Making a thread is a bit funny, sometimes I feel I rushed to make picks in this brief time wanting to prove something, judgement gets clouded, same as when bragging in rl. I feel like I have to prove something and win at all costs, its a poor attitude that leads to losing for me.

For mma being patient and understanding all the paths to victory is key. Even in straight picking the winner, this has always seemed to determine how well I do that night. Its amazing what you are doing Hugo. Even if you get limited in props, I think your knowledge of understanding how the fights play out will be huge in straight betting although your betting structure will need to change without props and you will have to figure that out.

Anyway thanks for the kind words, I’ll be back after I get some debt taken care of. Yup I’m an idiot who bet with debt. When you do it so long it can happen. Folks never do this though, no matter what success you had before or what you think, don’t cross the line. BOL got a lot of mma events in March! Sadly need to sit them out...

**Degenregen** · 03-09-19, 03:05 AM

I still have two units, so of course a degen will bet if he thinks he has an edge.
-5.6 on the thread.

Risk 1U Schnell +110

Everytime I see Smolka fight he's getting rocked and being put in bad positions before miraculously pulling off a submission. He could easily do so here, especially if Schnell does something stupid like go for a guillotine when his opponent shoots which he seems prone to do IIRC. Schnell did pretty well against Naoki Inoue though, who was no slouch on the ground. Perhaps he's turned the corner in regards to fight IQ.

From his past performances I don't think Smolka belongs in the UFC. His striking is below average, he's prone to getting rocked, and his takedowns aren't exactly impressive. He relies on his opponents making a mistake that puts them in a bad enough position where he can capitalize. 4/5 fighters he defeated in the UFC are now no longer in the UFC or retired. The question is: Is Schnell UFC caliber? Even if it's just surviving on the undercard for a few years, I think it's good enough. Another thing to note is, Schnell is moving up from 125, he's certainly got the length for bantamweight, we shall see.

Still got another bullet to fire tomorrow if it loses....

**Degenregen** · 03-09-19, 06:17 PM

Millender -120 to win 1U
Dariush + Rocco Martin Parlay Risk .5 to win .55

**Degenregen** · 03-09-19, 08:58 PM

Rothwell -115 to win .5U

Thinking about Niko

**Degenregen** · 03-09-19, 09:33 PM

penetrate these judges, was thinking about laying off Niko if I lost Rothwell, but not like that.

Niko Price +!70 risk .5U

**Degenregen** · 03-09-19, 09:53 PM

Millender -115 to win .3U
Dos Santos -205 to win .25U

**Degenregen** · 03-09-19, 10:16 PM

Completely blindsided by Elizeus's grappling had no idea he could win like that, fair enough.

Dos Santos -225 to win .5U

On a mission to have a losing night I guess.