UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 (December 29, 2018)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-Per-view 10:00 pm ET
Jon Jones vs Alexander Gustafsson (for light heavyweight title)
Cris Cyborg vs Amanda Nunes (for featherweight title)
Michael Chiesa vs Carlos Condit
Corey Anderson vs Ilir Latifi
Chad Mendes vs Alex Volkanovski

FS1, 8:00 pm ET
Andrei Arlovski vs Walt Harris
Megan Anderson vs Cat Zingano
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Petr Yan
Ryan Hall vs BJ Penn

UFC Fight Pass 6:30 pm ET
Andre Ewell vs Nathaniel Wood
Uriah Hall vs Bevon Lewis
Siyar Bahadurzada vs Curtis Millender
Montel Jackson vs Brian Kelleher

[bjpenn85]

Any thoughts gentleman?

At first glance it looks like a typical "bad" for betting type of card.

Walt harris at -175?

[Demonata]

This card is such easy money!!!! Jon jones cyborg parlay lock!!!

[SmellMyFinger]

chad mendez is by far my biggest play on this card, i don't think trying to grapple with him is the way to beat chad, he only got outstruck by the best technicians that division has to offer, alexander has to win on volume, and i could see it happening but way less often than the odds indicate right now, i just think mendez will be the one who has the tkd card in his pocket to supplement his striking

[SmellMyFinger]

also liking cat zingano, i know i know... questionable mental issues but she looked good vs an always game marion reneau, and lost a split to arguably the best prospect in that division (a shallow division.. but still). she's not to be counted out in a striking match, and i think she's catching anderson at a good time. cat has the grappling advantage here and i expect that if her team is worth anything she will work in the clinch an get the fight to the ground as many times as she can. not as confident as in chad but still will be betting her

[bjpenn85]

This card is such easy money!!!! Jon jones cyborg parlay lock!!!

Seems easy and straight forward. Long time winners who has a combined win of percentage of 99.9%. Nunes can perhaps make it closer than we think, but not enough to actually win. Jones jones and his situation now is difficult to assess, he seems motivated and thankful for an opportunity he shouldnt really have.Will ring rust play enough of a factor to bust our jones/cyborg parlay? I personally dont think so, but i dont like putting money on these circumstances. What a gigantic upset this would be if gustaffson can pull this off. The upset would be larger than the odds indicate. Jones never loses to anybody. His win against cormier looks even sweeter now after cormiers reign at HW.

[bjpenn85]

chad mendez is by far my biggest play on this card, i don't think trying to grapple with him is the way to beat chad, he only got outstruck by the best technicians that division has to offer, alexander has to win on volume, and i could see it happening but way less often than the odds indicate right now, i just think mendez will be the one who has the tkd card in his pocket to supplement his striking

Wrestling a wash, and the superior striking for mendes is your thought. What about the durability/cardio, output, feel confident that shits going to mendes also?

[bjpenn85]

also liking cat zingano, i know i know... questionable mental issues but she looked good vs an always game marion reneau, and lost a split to arguably the best prospect in that division (a shallow division.. but still). she's not to be counted out in a striking match, and i think she's catching anderson at a good time. cat has the grappling advantage here and i expect that if her team is worth anything she will work in the clinch an get the fight to the ground as many times as she can. not as confident as in chad but still will be betting her

If i say, cat zingano doesnt really look like her self, the way she was before the three losses, and that her striking is kind of poor. What would be your best argument to combat this, in light or your going to put money on her?

I havent really watched tape, broken down this fight, but when you say im going to bet this fight it just doesnt sound right. On the surface, this seems like a bad bet.

Convince me otherwise please.

[Sanity Check]

Max betting Ryan Hall on the open.

Just to be a dum.




Anyone know why Hall hasnt fought in 2 years?

Could be mistake on my part.

[Thrilla]

Decimal odds

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[Sanity Check]

Max bet Montel Jackson on the opener, too.

Although I could live to regret it.

Wouldn't be surprised if Jackson's head found its way into Kelleher's guillotine for an upset. Jackson didn't seem 100% aware of what MMA rules were when he competed on the contender series. Talented athlete, phenomenal wrestler but maybe not the most experienced fighter on the roster.

[SmellMyFinger]

Wrestling a wash, and the superior striking for mendes is your thought. What about the durability/cardio, output, feel confident that shits going to mendes also?

i don't think chad has bad cardio issues, we only saw him fade bad in the connor fight, as far as durability, connor hit him with the penetrating world while he was gassed, and getting caught by a edgar is not too embarrassing. and what do you mean "wrestling a wash", alexander is not getting chad to the mat, that only goes one way (chad choosing to take him down). alex's volume is only volume because of his wrestling, he's not some refined range kickboxer that will pick chad apart. the intangible for me here is the rate of improvement, i don't see mendez adding too much to his game at this point but i an see alex doing so. but not going to bet on that.

[SmellMyFinger]

If i say, cat zingano doesnt really look like her self, the way she was before the three losses, and that her striking is kind of poor. What would be your best argument to combat this, in light or your going to put money on her?

I havent really watched tape, broken down this fight, but when you say im going to bet this fight it just doesnt sound right. On the surface, this seems like a bad bet.

Convince me otherwise please.

so your perception is that she changes as a fighter and it's not just a reflection of bad style matchups vs good competition. i won't argue on the poor striking point, but it has to be relative, it's poor compared to andersons ? i give anderson the striking advantage but i'm not betting a kickboxing fight here. i'm betting on a better grappler vs a better striker. these are just initial thoughts on the fight. i want to see how her weight cut is going and then if the line did not sink see if there is still value.

[PaperTrail07]

Quick Glance

Loving:
Millender
Harris

[bjpenn85]

I will need to look into the details. I just felt Zingano was so overwhelmingly good at times, but then she has had some off nights and losses. But her striking doesnt improve, and if she doesnt get it to the ground, shes so hittable and all that. I will be back with more info when i arrive at a conclusion ill guess.

Regarding Volkanovsky, i would have liked to see how his striking is in a 3 round fight, but hes so ground and pound oriented that data exist does hardly exist in the UFC. Chad mendes will win most fights in the UFC, probably the volkanovskys of the world as well. Mendes looks more athletic, and just better, and that tells you something, because volkanovsky doesnt necessarily strike one as unathletic.

[Hugo de Naranja]

chad mendez is by far my biggest play on this card, i don't think trying to grapple with him is the way to beat chad, he only got outstruck by the best technicians that division has to offer, alexander has to win on volume, and i could see it happening but way less often than the odds indicate right now, i just think mendez will be the one who has the tkd card in his pocket to supplement his striking

Why can’t Volk Knock Mendes Out? He hits hard and Mendes is chinny.

[Hugo de Naranja]

i don't think chad has bad cardio issues, we only saw him fade bad in the connor fight, as far as durability, connor hit him with the penetrating world while he was gassed, and getting caught by a edgar is not too embarrassing. and what do you mean "wrestling a wash", alexander is not getting chad to the mat, that only goes one way (chad choosing to take him down). alex's volume is only volume because of his wrestling, he's not some refined range kickboxer that will pick chad apart. the intangible for me here is the rate of improvement, i don't see mendez adding too much to his game at this point but i an see alex doing so. but not going to bet on that.

Getting one punched by a pillow-fisted Edgar should be a major concern.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I will need to look into the details. I just felt Zingano was so overwhelmingly good at times, but then she has had some off nights and losses. But her striking doesnt improve, and if she doesnt get it to the ground, shes so hittable and all that. I will be back with more info when i arrive at a conclusion ill guess.

Regarding Volkanovsky, i would have liked to see how his striking is in a 3 round fight, but hes so ground and pound oriented that data exist does hardly exist in the UFC. Chad mendes will win most fights in the UFC, probably the volkanovskys of the world as well. Mendes looks more athletic, and just better, and that tells you something, because volkanovsky doesnt necessarily strike one as unathletic.

His last fight was 95% on the feet. Just watch that.

[bjpenn85]

His last fight was 95% on the feet. Just watch that.

Cool. Just watched it. Volkanovsky isnt half bad on the feet. Its tempting to bet chad mendes at this price, but how much better can chad mendes be than volkanovsky on the feet. Maybe a tiny bit more powerful and quicker, probably the better wrestler as well. I still think it is a tough fight to call, would like to have more than 2.30 min with myles jury.

Any thoughts on this card Hugo?

[bjpenn85]

Just to add to the conversation, mini mendes is currently, one of very few fighters in the ufc with 100% tdd. If those numbers include WEC, which i think they do, hes the world champion in that category.

[Thrilla]

[bjpenn85]

Getting one punched by a pillow-fisted Edgar should be a major concern.

Edgar has pillows for fist, but the hook edgar gave mendes was flush. Its hard to say if anyone would have been knocked out with that punch, or if we start to see mendes chin degenerate a little. Is mendes chinny apart from this one time? Jose aldos knees doesnt count.

[SmellMyFinger]

Why can’t Volk Knock Mendes Out? He hits hard and Mendes is chinny.

not saying he can't , just saying its unlikely, and i'm not sold on his power , and i don't think mendez is chinny

[Demonata]

Seems easy and straight forward. Long time winners who has a combined win of percentage of 99.9%. Nunes can perhaps make it closer than we think, but not enough to actually win. Jones jones and his situation now is difficult to assess, he seems motivated and thankful for an opportunity he shouldnt really have.Will ring rust play enough of a factor to bust our jones/cyborg parlay? I personally dont think so, but i dont like putting money on these circumstances. What a gigantic upset this would be if gustaffson can pull this off. The upset would be larger than the odds indicate. Jones never loses to anybody. His win against cormier looks even sweeter now after cormiers reign at HW.

Yeah i just am tired of betting against jon jones. Feels dumb every time. I think parlaying him and cyborg is around even money? I still feel Cormier had the better shot to beat jones than gustaffson will. Cybirg goimg to punch nunes head off. Nunes was lucky to beat shevchenko both times and i feel shes over rated.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Edgar has pillows for fist, but the hook edgar gave mendes was flush. Its hard to say if anyone would have been knocked out with that punch, or if we start to see mendes chin degenerate a little. Is mendes chinny apart from this one time? Jose aldos knees doesnt count.

Conor also KO'd him.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Cool. Just watched it. Volkanovsky isnt half bad on the feet. Its tempting to bet chad mendes at this price, but how much better can chad mendes be than volkanovsky on the feet. Maybe a tiny bit more powerful and quicker, probably the better wrestler as well. I still think it is a tough fight to call, would like to have more than 2.30 min with myles jury.

Any thoughts on this card Hugo?

I've got Bones to close a TON of Multi-Event Parlays. I think he is better everywhere and he's fighting someone that he's already beaten.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Edgar has pillows for fist, but the hook edgar gave mendes was flush. Its hard to say if anyone would have been knocked out with that punch, or if we start to see mendes chin degenerate a little. Is mendes chinny apart from this one time? Jose aldos knees doesnt count.

I believe that is Edgar's only career One Punch Knockout

[bjpenn85]

Conor also KO'd him.

He def was, i dont know if its a good argument though, as Connor normally KOs people.

[CaDDyy]

backup the truck on mendes itd

[bjpenn85]

I believe that is Edgar's only career One Punch Knockout

But is also the one time edgar put everything he had, and hit a person perfectly. He didnt run and punch. He actually planted his foot, and mendes absorbed the full impact on the chin and hes whole head made flick and he was knocked out. And thats my problem with your argument. A perfect knee from aldo, and a straight left with precision in a moment mendes already hurt by connor, and a 100% full impact punch from edgar, is unfortunately three occasions i believe every fighter on the roster would have been knocked out by.

To categorise someone as chinny, you need to argument that the strikes that mendes absorbs in a fight, a fighter x can take, and not get knocked out by.

If Volkanovsky gets the KO in this fight, i will probably look at all of these three KOs and think, damn Hugo was correct all along. I think at least frankie edgards punch still can be look at with suspicion out of those three KOs, but more because of the punch being Edgars than the punch in itself.

Do you understand my logic here?

[Hugo de Naranja]

But is also the one time edgar put everything he had, and hit a person perfectly. He didnt run and punch. He actually planted his foot, and mendes absorbed the full impact on the chin and hes whole head made flick and he was knocked out. And thats my problem with your argument. A perfect knee from aldo, and a straight left with precision in a moment mendes already hurt by connor, and a 100% full impact punch from edgar, is unfortunately three occasions i believe every fighter on the roster would have been knocked out by.

To categorise someone as chinny, you need to argument that the strikes that mendes absorbs in a fight, a fighter x can take, and not get knocked out by.

If Volkanovsky gets the KO in this fight, i will probably look at all of these three KOs and think, damn Hugo was correct all along. I think at least frankie edgards punch still can be look at with suspicion out of those three KOs, but more because of the punch being Edgars than the punch in itself.

Do you understand my logic here?

I think a lot of people could take that Edgar hook and some could take that particular Straight Left from McGregor. How many elite fighters have been KO'ed three times?

Also, in his entire earlier UFC career Mendes basically never fought power punchers. Omigawa, Yahya, McKenzie, Meza, Elkins, Guida, Lentz have very few knockouts between them. Even Aldo, only has 3 KO/TKO wins in his 9 UFC victories and one of them was an injury.

That said, Mendes' skillset is really good. I won a ton on him against Myles Jury so definitely not hating on him just warning for some caution for those looking to go huge on Mendes.

[bjpenn85]

I think a lot of people could take that Edgar hook and some could take that particular Straight Left from McGregor. How many elite fighters have been KO'ed three times?

Also, in his entire earlier UFC career Mendes basically never fought power punchers. Omigawa, Yahya, McKenzie, Meza, Elkins, Guida, Lentz have very few knockouts between them. Even Aldo, only has 3 KO/TKO wins in his 9 UFC victories and one of them was an injury.

That said, Mendes' skillset is really good. I won a ton on him against Myles Jury so definitely not hating on him just warning for some caution for those looking to go huge on Mendes.

Yes, thats very true. Having three losses in itself is a little suspect, although they all seem justified in a way. Its def a risk putting money on mendes against a guy that seems to have decent power.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yes, thats very true. Having three losses in itself is a little suspect, although they all seem justified in a way. Its def a risk putting money on mendes against a guy that seems to have decent power.

What are your thoughts on this card BJ?

[Thor4140]

I've got Bones to close a TON of Multi-Event Parlays. I think he is better everywhere and he's fighting someone that he's already beaten.

I don’t think Jones standup is better than Gus. His overall skill set is but stand up isnt unless u are counting spinning elbows and all that type of shit. I thought Jones won the first fight but it was nice to see him finally fight a guy who has all the advantages he has against smaller opponents. Who knows if Jones is telling the truth saying he was caught with a pin head of juice equivalent to a large Olympic size swimming pool. He got caught three times now and I’m willing to bet that his lack luster fight with OSP had something to do with him being off the juice. This fight to me is to dangerous to be taking a shot on Jones. Honestly i hope he wins cause the sport really needs him back but my cash will stay in my pocket.

[Pinoy-T-X]

I can see a split decision on the Jones/Gus fight, it’s up to D’Amato who takes it.