UFC Fight Night: Volkan vs. Smith (October 27, 2018)

[WolfTicketDealer]

Nice to be back to betting the UFC, with quite a few cards to close the year. Got off to a really bad start when I first started posting picks but have worked my way back to nearly even (-0.12 units YTD). Hoping to break into the top 10 in Toutmaster (currently 11th) and get into the positives for posted picks on the year. Here we go:

Oezdemir v. Smith
Smith R2 (+750) 0.5 u
Smith R3 (+1075) 0.25 u

Soccer Mom vs. Martinez
Martinez (+145) 1 u

Taleb vs. Strickland
Taleb (+105) 1.3 u

Kattar vs. Fishgold

Kattar -3.5 (-120) 3 u to win 2.5 u

Bernardo vs. Moras

Bernardo Submission (+700) 0.5 u

Good luck everyone! Really like Kattar here, may throw him in a parlay or two. Also will look to live bet Smith after Round 1 if it goes that far.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Volkan just fought the champ and lost so he's gonna be hungry... Volkan has fought the better competition lately compared to Smith. These trends are glaring out to me..

Volkan only lost one fight his entire career before facing DC and getting stopped, DC the best in the division. Before that he beat some damn good fighters and won 5 straight... I think he rebounds against Smith in this fight.... I think he knocks Smith out and probably in the 1st round...

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Volkan-Oezdemir-58503

1025 Oezdemir wins in round 1

+191

The thing is that Volkan hasn’t really beaten many top fighters. He’s 3-1 in the UFC so far. He arguably lost to OSP then knocked out Cirkunov (chinny) and Manuwa (chinny) inside of a round. While we know that he is dangerous in the first round, I’m not convinced that Oezdemir has the cardio and grappling necessary to beat guys that are ranked immediately behind him. I’d pick guys like Gustafsson, Reyes, Blachowicz, and Anderson to beat Oezdemir and I think Smith is right in with those guys.

[JIBBBY]

The thing is that Volkan hasn’t really beaten many top fighters. He’s 3-1 in the UFC so far. He arguably lost to OSP then knocked out Cirkunov (chinny) and Manuwa (chinny) inside of a round. While we know that he is dangerous in the first round, I’m not convinced that Oezdemir has the cardio and grappling necessary to beat guys that are ranked immediately behind him. I’d pick guys like Gustafsson, Reyes, Blachowicz, and Anderson to beat Oezdemir and I think Smith is right in with those guys.

We'll see then? Maybe.....


FS1 Main Card



Volkan
Oezdemir
"No Time"
vs
Anthony
Smith
"Lionheart"

SWITZERLAND
Country
UNITED STATES

15-2-0
Record
30-13-0

73%
KO/TKO
60%

7%
SUB
33%

20%
DEC
7%

74 in
Height
76 in

205 lbs
Weight
205 lbs

75 in
Reach
76 in

40 in
Leg Reach
44 in

[Sanity Check]

I'm thinking Volkan could be one of those guys who chronically overtrains. He might do better, his "cardio" might improve if he learns to tone things down in the gym to give himself more rest and recovery.

Good breakdowns by Shagy and Turbozed on page 1.

[UncleChael]

Boston wins the World Series and Anthony Smith gets the knock out. Have a good night/day.

penetrate this guy's sharp. Boston is safe tonight at +160 ML.
Tell 'em Uncle Chael Sent ya.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[Sanity Check]

penetrate this guy's sharp. Boston is safe tonight at +160 ML.
Tell 'em Uncle Chael Sent ya.

"Send anyone you want. Don't send anyone you want back."

--Chael P. Sonnen

[JIBBBY]

Some of these odds on favorites are tempting to fade.. Capping this event now.. Looking at the trends..

Lobov At +450 IDK???? I think MJ wins but at almost 5-1 odds Lobov could get after it... He's not a bum... Hard to finish is Lobov and has a chance at a decision win..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Artem-Lobov-73700

1107 Lobov wins by 3 round decision

+783

UFC Fight Night 138 - Featherweight 3 rounds - Moncton Events Centre - New Brunswick, Canada - FS1
Sat 10/27		1101 Artem Lobov		+450	o2½ -175
11:59PM		1102 Michael Johnson		-600	u2½ +155

Cumming with his wrestling at +275 IDK? Misha probably wins though.. Starbuck boy has no chin and fades.. Although there is a chance he could grind out a decision win.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Patrick-Cummins-72981

1207 Cummins wins by 3 round decision

+461

UFC Fight Night 138 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds - Moncton Events Centre - New Brunswick, Canada - FS1
Sat 10/27		1201 Patrick Cummins		+275	o1½ +105
11:30PM		1202 Misha Cirkunov		-335	u1½ -125

[Shagdogy]

So many live dogs. Which ones to pick?

Bernardo definitely.

Hugo makes good arguments for Smith. We know he’s durable and is a dangerous finisher in round one and beyond whereas all that we can be certain about Volkan is he has that early power. Volkan could come get that immediate KO but if not then everything we know about the two suggests we should favor Smith in rds 2 and 3, etc. (nice plays by wolf dealer... make a lot of sense). So for the majority of the fight, I’d favor Smith. I would only favor Volkan rd 1. Give me the dog who has a bigger window to get the win.

Jonathan Martinez. A bit of a shot in the dark but I like a few things about his game. Fast, solid kicking game that he uses to keep range. Souk does not get much offense going against range. He’s taller here but not much longer and def not longer than Martinez’s kicks. Martinez gets kicks caught because of how he spams them but he makes guys immediately pay for taking him down with a real good triangle/armbar sequence that he has finished with a few times. He also showed the ability against Schnell to lose round one but maintain his motor and turn the tide in round 2, and Souk is a slow starter. Souk was also vulnerable to O’Malley’s BJJ from the bottom. So if Souk struggles from kick range on the feet, and then has trouble with the BJJ if he takes him down, then I like Martinez’s chances. Souk has never been finished but he has a terrible record (1-6) when going to decision. Martinez is worth a little poke.

I wrote about Madge, Ayari, McGee before as well but for various reasons find them less worthy of straight bets. Same goes for Cummins. All live dogs IMO but I find it better to lay off those fights entirely.

Seeing a lot of ppl like Golm but I think Bhullar is a fav that should win and the price keeps getting cheaper for him. Villante’s hard to trust but I may parlay him and Bhullar for plus money.

[Thrilla]

Anyone else that thinks Haqparast is way too big of a favorite vs. Gouti?

WTF?

So I guess everyone is on Haqparast -850

Good luck squares.

Pathetic.

[Hugo de Naranja]

So I guess everyone is on Haqparast -850

Good luck squares.

Pathetic.

I have .25u on Haqparast Submission (+2000) as my only action on that fight. Seems like he will win but line is clearly too wide.

[JIBBBY]

Odds are to high to bet on Haqparast.. I like him to win by KO but gonna take a stab on Gouti Staight at those huge + odds for small instead... It's a dart throw..

It's either that or pass completely on betting this fight.. I chose to throw a dart on Gouti straight..

FS2



Thibault
Gouti
"GT"
vs
Nasrat
Haqparast

FRANCE
Country
GERMANY

12-4-0
Record
9-2-0

33%
KO/TKO
89%

50%
SUB
0%

17%
DEC
11%

70 in
Height
70 in

155 lbs
Weight
155 lbs

72 in
Reach
72 in

41 in
Leg Reach
41 in

[Sanity Check]

So I guess everyone is on Haqparast -850

Good luck squares.

Pathetic.

LOL

I hate to say this but.

Are you racist against afghans like Haqparast?

jkjk


C'mon jibbby laugh, you know you want 2.




(Complaining about your boy Thibault Gouti being +650. I have never witnessed this rare phenomenon)

[JIBBBY]

LOL

I hate to say this but.

Are you racist against afghans like Haqparast?

jkjk


C'mon jibbby laugh, you know you want 2.

I kinda ignore Thrilla's posts these days and his political ramblings when he goes off the deep end.. He did mention Gouti and the huge odds on dog, I just happen to be capping that fight when I read his post.. I then Commented on it and I actually agree with him...

Thrilla not a bad MMA capper as he does see betting angles at times when he decides to share but when he turns the corner with his political rants and race ramblings in posts they typically have a nasty way of derailing sport related threads... That's annoying to me..

[Thrilla]

Let's just put Haqparasts's fighting skills aside for a minute.

He his still young, less experienced than Gouti.
Only 11 fights total under his belt pro and amature.

This will his first fight ever outside of Germany.

+ Looking at his record who has he really beaten?

I was on him in his last fights. But this line is just ridiculous, regardless if he knocks gouti out within a minute or not.

[JIBBBY]

Let's just put Haqparasts's fighting skills aside for a minute.

He his still young, less experienced than Gouti.
Only 11 fights total under his belt pro and amature.

This will his first fight ever outside of Germany.

+ Looking at his record who has he really beaten?

I was on him in his last fights. But this line is just ridiculous, regardless if he knocks gouti out within a minute or not.

Agreed... Worth a shot at those odds.. Gouti not a horrible fighter, he'll be game at worst before getting dropped if he does lose..

[Sanity Check]

Let's just put Haqparasts's fighting skills aside for a minute.

He his still young, less experienced than Gouti.
Only 11 fights total under his belt pro and amature.

This will his first fight ever outside of Germany.

+ Looking at his record who has he really beaten?

I was on him in his last fights. But this line is just ridiculous, regardless if he knocks gouti out within a minute or not.

I don't think its ridiculous.

Haqparast dominated a fighter arguably more skilled & well rounded than Sage Northcutt his last time out. Haqparast is living & training out of tristar (as you said) this UFC event being in canada won't be a trip into unknown territory. Previously Haqparast did train out of Kings MMA in california so its not like Haqparast is unaccustomed to traveling abroad.

Having 11 fights could mean he's still motivated and having fun training. He hasn't reached that burn out point yet. It could be positive.

If the betting limit for this fight is unusually high then I might suspect an upset, otherwise it should be Haqparast's fight to lose.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 138: Smith vs. Oezdemir Picks:
Stevie Ray Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Arjan Singh Bhullar Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Te Edwards Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Talita Bernardo Round 1 Submission (Armbar)
Calvin Kattar Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Nasrat Haqparast Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Nordine Taleb Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Alex Garcia Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Gian Villante Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Jonathan Martinez Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Misha Cirkunov Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Michael Johnson Round 2 KO (Punches)
Anthony Smith Round 2 KO (Standing Elbow and Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 138: Smith vs. Oezdemir

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Ray vs. Ayari
No Bet

Fight #2: Bhullar vs. Golm
No Bet

Fight #3: Edwards (DEBUT) vs. Madge (DEBUT)
Edwards Round 1 (-110) 1.65u to win 1.5u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #4: Bernardo vs. Moras
Moras+Bernardo Won’t Go Distance (+205) 1u

Fight #5: Kattar vs. Fishgold (DEBUT)
Fishgold (+270) 1u
Fishgold ITD (+420) .5u

Fight #6: Haqparast vs. Gouti
Haqparast Submission (+2000) .25u

Fight #7: Taleb vs. Strickland
Taleb (-110) 4.4u to win 4u
Taleb Decision (+170) 1u
Taleb KO/TKO (+625) .5u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Garcia vs. McGee
McGee Round 3 (+2300) .25u

Fight #9: Villante vs. Herman
No Bet

Fight #10: Martinez (DEBUT) vs. Soukhamthath
Martinez (+165) 1u

Fight #11: Cirkunov vs. Cummins
Cummins (+375) 1u
Cummins KO/TKO (+1100) .5u

Fight #12: Johnson vs. Lobov
Johnson KO/TKO (+180) 1.5u

Fight #13: Smith vs. Oezdemir
Smith (+145) 3u

Hedge:
Oezdemir Round 1 (+225) 1u

Straight Parlays:
None

Prop Parlays:
Edwards+Madge WGD/Garcia+McGee GD (+128) 1u

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+269) 1.25u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+729) .5u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+2500) .25u

Multi-Event Parlays:
None

[JIBBBY]

How I'm playing the Gouti fight...

1701 Thibault Gouti

+590

Hedge

1721 Haqparast wins in round 1

+110

[Shagdogy]

So I guess everyone is on Haqparast -850

Good luck squares.

Pathetic.

Haqparast should roll here. Not betting Gouti doesn’t mean you must be betting Haqparast. No play. Unless you wanna back Gouti here? You think he wins?

[Shagdogy]

played...

Smith +140, 1u
Martinez +135, 1u
Bernardo +145, 1.5u
Taleb -110, 1.5u

Bhullar+Villante +125ish, win 1.5u

[Sanity Check]

If Villante wins it'll finish a +1700 parlay.

Other than that, I might sit this event out.

Need to get those side hustles going & find ways to generate more consistent and reliable revenue streams.

Been relying too much on my capping game.

[Thrilla]

[Thrilla]

Haqparast should roll here. Not betting Gouti doesn’t mean you must be betting Haqparast. No play. Unless you wanna back Gouti here? You think he wins?

Ofcourse I don't think that. Just trying to force a reaction /conversation on the fight. See where people stand.
Only back/fade who is under/overpriced as leading factor to bet...not by who I think will win.

Shagdogy which one of the Teymur brothers is in your avatar? We need to get you a new photo of that Teymur. God you have bad taste, guy in photo keeps staring at me. You pick the worst avatar pictures. Before Teymur was fighter with the tongue sticking out.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Notes from weigh-ins:
Didn't realize that Ayari was moving down for this fight. Thought he looked good on the scales. Also, Golm weighed in 8 or so pounds heavier than his last fight. Thought he looked significantly bigger this time around.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Ofcourse I don't think that. Just trying to force a reaction /conversation on the fight. See where people stand.
Only back/fade who is under/overpriced as leading factor to bet...not by who I think will win.

Shagdogy which one of the Teymur brothers is in your avatar? We need to get you a new photo of that Teymur. God you have bad taste, guy in photo keeps staring at me. You pick the worst avatar pictures. Before Teymur was fighter with the tongue sticking out.

That is David

[HurlSweatPants]

"Take off your dirty underwear, b/c I'm going to fu$% you"

-David Teymur

[Sanity Check]

Dan Hardy with his signature biased, crooked, commentating of the Stevie Ray / Jessin Ayari fight.

Thankfully judges got it rite.

[kobejoshy]

Ray lost that fight.

[Sanity Check]

Its hard to say Jessin Ayari won the fight when he only landed 5 punches in every round.

He got outlanded everywhere else @ good volume.

[kobejoshy]

Ayari landed more than 15 punches lol

[Sanity Check]

Bhullar has a special kind of obnoxious stupid constantly yelling @ him from his corner.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Savage knockout from Madge.

[Sanity Check]

Wish I knew Te Edwards trained out of MMA Lab.

Would have 100% faded him.

Ayari landed more than 15 punches lol

If you count the invisible, imaginary, punches Dan Hardy said "landed" that missed or were glancing shots.