MMA MANIA write ups - THE ENTIRE CARD
135 lbs.: UFC Bantamweight Champion TJ Dillashaw (15-3) vs. Cody “No Love” Garbrandt (11-1)
Nostradumbass predicts: I think it says a lot about the bantamweight division that Cody Garbrandt is getting an immediate rematch when he was knocked out by TJ Dillashaw the first time they went to war back at UFC 217. I understand that it’s not uncommon these days, as it was in the case of Joanna Jedrzejczyk, but the Pole captured the crown in early 2015, then went on to register five straight title defenses. Garbrandt, on the other hand, was unable to defend his strap a single time. The obvious answer is “marketing” and I can’t imagine anyone in the promotion's front office was in a big hurry to give Raphael Assuncao — 1-1 against Dillashaw — the next crack at the bantamweight crown, so here we are. The good news? It’s going to be fireworks.
Typically when two fighters come back around to get after it a second time, there have been some bouts in between to make it easier for us to measure what sort of progress each combatant has made. Sometimes the answer is “none” and that just depends on the fighter. For UFC 227, this is essentially round three of their last fight. Garbrandt undoubtedly watched tape ad nauseam and probably feels confident that he fixed the mistake he made last November, just as Dillashaw believes he righted the wrong that left him wobbled to close out the first frame. At least we weren't subjected to another three months of Team Alpha Male vs. Duane Ludwig headlines. Even a clickety clickster like myself was over that nonsense.
Honestly, I don’t give a shit who wins this fight because it’s going to be bananas from bell-to-bell. As we saw in their first go-round, they match up pretty evenly in all areas. Garbrandt is slightly taller but has a slightly shorter reach. Dillashaw went further in his amateur wrestling career; however, Garbrandt has never been taken down in UFC. This is a question of who makes the first mistake and that’s what makes this fight so dangerous, there is absolutely no margin for error. I know I’m pretty critical of MMA fights that are nothing more than glorified kickboxing matches, but I think in this case — and considering the level of talent inside the cage — I’m willing to make an exception. Garbrandt feels like the right pick on Saturday, simply because the MMA gods love reruns — and hate Dominick Cruz.
Do I hear rubber match?!?
Final prediction: Garbrandt def. Dillashaw by technical knockout
125 lbs.: UFC Flyweight Champion Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson (27-2-1) vs. Henry “The Messenger” Cejudo (12-2)
Nostradumbass predicts: If you don’t enjoy watching Demetrious Johnson fight, then you probably aren’t a real MMA fan. Early criticism of “Mighty Mouse” was certainly warranted, as the flyweight phenom went to the judges’ scorecards in his first seven UFC fights. Nobody wants to watch a five-round sparring match. But then Johnson matured as a fighter and started to get more comfortable with his abilities. A lot of guys are afraid to commit to the finish because it leaves them vulnerable to counterattack, but when you move as fast as the champ does, it doesn’t really matter. I think once he realized that, he went from point fighter to ruthless killer, with seven of his last 10 fights ending by way of knockout or submission.
Including his 2016 destruction of Henry Cejudo.
Cejudo also had his fair share of growing pains, struggling to make the 125-pound limit on multiple occasions. And, like Johnson, he too matured as a fighter and began living as a flyweight instead of just fighting as one. A gold medalist in the 2008 Summer Olympics, “The Messenger” is certainly the most decorated wrestler in the division and he hits pretty hard for a flyweight. But unlike Johnson, he doesn’t know how to seamlessly transition between disciplines. You can almost see him making the conscious decision to shoot or strike as opposed to just adjusting on the fly. It probably doesn’t matter against most of his weight class, simply because he’s the better athlete, but it made his Joseph Benavidez fight way closer than it needed to be and against “Mighty Mouse,” he just got torn apart.
Let’s not bullshit ourselves here. This fight was booked because Johnson cleaned out the division and got injured when TJ Dillashaw offered to come down to flyweight and try that whole “champ champ” thing. That left us with reruns and I already know how this show ends. Despite all his gifts, Cejudo couldn’t seal the deal in 2016 and I don’t believe he’ll be able to do it here, either. I do, however, expect a more measured approach and a few takedowns, but all that will do is get this fight to last 25 minutes ... and not much else. “Mighty Mouse” is faster, has more cage awareness, and owns a much deeper toolbox. Barring something dramatic, expect Johnson to handily win four of the five frames while adding another lap to his UFC record.
Final prediction: Johnson def. Cejudo by unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Cub Swanson (25-9) vs. Renato “Moicano” Carneiro (12-1-1)
Nostradumbass predicts: One of the great things about Cub Swanson, or more specifically his UFC career, is that it proves you don’t have to win a championship title or score some fancy-shmancy sponsor to have a long and prosperous career as an MMA fighter. You simply need to get into the Octagon, put on exciting fights, and not act like a drunken fool every time you’re out in public. To that end, Swanson has been a smashing success and he’s now 16 fights into his UFC run following eight appearances for World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC). There probably isn't a combat sports fan out there — young or old — who hasn't seen Swanson compete at some point over the last 15 years.
I’m not sure what he’s got left at age 34 and his career was littered with post-fight performance bonuses, so damage given is by proxy damage received. I don't want to go crazy over his consecutive losses to Frankie Edgar and Brian Ortega, because those are two of the best featherweights in the game. As far as I can tell, Swanson is still a tremendous boxer with top-shelf cardio and a willingness to engage. That beats most fighters in the 145-pound weight class, including Dustin Poirier (UFC on Fuel TV 7) and Jeremy Stephens (UFC Fight Night 44), though his Swiss cheese submission defense has cost him his fair share of fights, to the tune of six taps in nine losses.
That might be a problem when he tangles with Renato Carneiro, a talented submission specialist who quietly put together a 4-1 record under the UFC banner. Prior to that, “Moicano” — which sounds way too much like “Boitano” — ran the table in Jungle Fight back in his native Brazil. He’s taller and has a longer reach than Swanson, but nobody in his corner is going to advise him to get into a boxing match with the wily veteran, so we can go ahead and just scrap those stats. When a fighter has gotten into double digits in the win column without a knockout, particularly after recycling cans on the local circuit, you know there’s a reason why.
Even as unreliable as Swanson is on submission defense, Carneiro is going to have to get their fight to the floor in order to exploit it. Against someone who’s shared the Octagon with the likes of Edgar, Ortega, Jose Aldo, and Chad Mendes, just to name a few, I find that to be a fairly daunting task. I would expect this to be three rounds of cat-and-mouse as Swanson uses fancy footwork and punishing counterpunches to keep “Moicano” at bay for the better part of 15 minutes. Besides, what has Carneiro done to establish himself as a legit contender outside of a split-decision win over “Lil’ Heathen” back in April 2017? Sorry, I need more.
Final prediction: Swanson def. Carneiro by unanimous decision
115 lbs.: J.J. Aldrich (6-2) vs. Polyana “Dama De Ferro” Viana (10-1)
Nostradumbass predicts: When I first saw that UFC put this bout on the main card, I shook my head and said to myself, “They only did this to get a women’s fight on PPV and in turn they screwed ... [scans UFC 227 line up for household names] ... uh ... you know this is probably going to turn out to be a great addition to the PPV card.” JJ Aldrich has fewer pro fights than her Brazilian foe, but more appearances under the UFC banner. What we’ve seen to date has been unremarkable in every way. After dropping her Octagon debut to Julianna Lima, Aldrich scored back-to-back decision wins over Chanmie Jeon and Danielle Taylor, neither of whom have a winning record in UFC.
Aldrich was expected to be a serious contender on Team Joanna during The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 23, right up until she got bounced in the opening round by Tatiana Suarez. That came as a surprise to most fans, as the Coloradan racked up a 7-4 record on the amateur circuit before going 2-1 in the pros. Her background is in Tae Kwon Do and she’s also a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, though Aldrich has yet to record a submission victory in eight trips to the cage. That’s definitely going to be a factor against Polyana Viana, who comes into this contest the winner of six straight — five of them submissions.
The Brazilian has only been to the scorecards once and that was a decision loss to Aline Sattelmayer under the Real Fight umbrella back in late 2014. Outside of that hiccup, she’s been an absolute terror, finishing nine of her 10 fights inside the first frame. Before we start salivating over that stat I should also point out that only three of her wins came over opponents with a winning record. There is no height or reach advantage in this fight as both strawweights stand 5’5” and hold a 67” reach. Aldrich, however, is a southpaw, for whatever that’s worth in a fight at this level.
Aldrich is a solid fighter with serviceable hands. No question she has skills on the ground to to complement her stand up and make her a complete fighter, but she’s struggled to secure the finish as the competition has gotten stiffer. Viana, meanwhile, continues to seal the deal in each fight and I don’t expect this bout to be the exception. Look for the aggressive “Dama De Ferro” to score an early knockdown and follow Aldrich to the ground, where she locks up the fight-ending tap.
Final prediction: Viana def. Aldrich by submission
185 lbs.: Thiago “Marreta” Santos (17-6) vs. Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland (12-3)
Nostradumbass predicts: It’s hard to know what to expect from Thiago Santos on any given night. This is a middleweight who won four straight fights — all by way of knockout — including last February’s destruction of Anthony “Lionheart” Smith, who is now in the division title hunt after wiping out a couple of ex-champions. Then out of nowhere he gets KTFO by David Branch, a jiu-jitsu specialist who recorded just one KO over the last eight years. Prior to that, “Marreta” had yet another four-fight win streak derailed when he went down in flames against Gegard Mousasi.
The Brazilian has 12 knockouts in 17 wins — eight of them in the first round — so we know he’s not going to enter the Octagon and pull guard. We also know he’s about as tough as they come, thanks to his time spent as an army paratrooper That’s probably why only one of his six losses have gone to the scorecards. Santos is there to kill or be killed, but his inability to stay consistent has kept him from sniffing a title shot. To be honest, I’m not sure there’s anything he can do on Saturday night to change that, win or lose.
Kevin Holland (no relation) makes his Octagon debut after a strong showing on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, where he returned a decision victory against Will Santiago Jr. I guess the biggest knock on that performance is how it didn't live up to “The Trailblazer’s” incessant yammering about how great he’s been. To his credit, his record backs it up, sporting a 8-1 mark dating back to late 2015 with eight finishes, including his one-off in Bellator MMA last March. Holland is a credible threat to the division, but he’s still got a long way to go in terms of proving he can hang with the Top 10.
One of the biggest concerns for Santos is overcoming a five-inch reach advantage. In addition, Holland also enjoys a three-inch edge in height and could probably make this bout a protracted sparring session if he knew how to effectively utilize the jab. It’s kind of amazing to me that we’re now in 2018 and the jab is still not at the forefront of every striker’s arsenal. I know Santos is getting up there in age, but 34 is not 44 and at age 25, Holland may not yet be in his prime. How could he be? This is his Octagon debut and we just don't know what to expect from a rookie who draws a main card slot on a major PPV. Until he proves otherwise, I have to side with the combatant who’s already proven himself against some of the toughest guys in the division. Expect Santos to get knocked around for awhile, then get pissed off and charge in with his Brazilian blitzkrieg, slicing right through any defense in the process.
Final prediction: Santos def. Holland by technical knockout
135 lbs.: Pedro Munhoz vs. Brett Johns
Despite a rocky 1-2 (1 NC) start to his Octagon career, Pedro Munhoz (15-3) prove his hype was legit with four consecutive victories, including bonus-winning submissions of Russell Doane, Justin Scoggins and Rob Font. He couldn’t quite chase down John Dodson, though, dropping a split decision to him at UFC 222.
Nine of his professional wins have come by submission, six of them via guillotine.
Conversely, Brett Johns (15-1) got to work right off the bat in the Octagon, winning his first three fights and scoring one of 2017’s best submissions with his calf slicer of Joe Soto. Against Aljamain Sterling, however, he struggled to get his wrestling going and ultimately lost a wide decision.
“The Pikey” will have a seven-inch reach advantage.
I’m a lot more conflicted about this fight than I expected. Munhoz looks like the clear choice on the surface, as his guillotine makes trying to wrestle with him a dicey proposition, but the Brazilian’s striking just hasn’t developed the way it should have. He was losing the stand up against both Scoggins and Font, and he’s never had good wrestling.
If nothing else, “The Pikey” can take a shot and has some solid boxing. Munhoz won’t be able to drag a panic takedown out of him or consistently get inside that huge reach advantage. I’m probably leaning too much on my gut, but I’ve got Johns for the upset.
Prediction: Johns via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Ricky Simon vs. Montel Jackson
The first victory for Ricky Simon (13-1) Dana White’s “Tuesday Night Contender Series” wasn’t enough to get him a contract, so he won and defended the LFA Bantamweight title to make his case for a contract. He wound up in one of the wildest debuts in recent memory, a “Fight of the Night” barnburner against Merab Dvalishvili that ended in a buzzer-beater.
At 5’6,” he will give up two inches of height and six inches of reach to Jackson.
Montel Jackson (6-0) went 8-1 as an amateur with six knockouts and two submissions before making the jump to the professional circuit in 2017. One year almost to the day after his debut, he took part in the “Tuesday Night Contender Series” and knocked out Rico DiSciullo on the Season 2 premiere.
Five of his six professional wins have come by knockout, three of them in the first round.
There’s a lot to like about both of these fighters. Two young, aggressive Bantamweights with well-rounded skillsets who turned in impressive recent performances. Though Jackson has the size and looks to be the bigger heater, Simon’s seasoning looks like it’ll be the key difference.
Jackson hasn’t faced anywhere near the competition Simon has and, crucially, took this fight on less than two weeks’ notice after Benito Lopez had to pull out. Simon’s ability to mix his striking and wrestling should allow him to get inside that reach difference and land enough strikes and takedowns to get the win.
Prediction: Simon via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Bethe Correia vs. Irene Aldana
Bethe Correia (10-3-1) punched her way to a UFC title shot with victories over Julie Kedzie, Jessamyn Duke and Shayna Baszler, only to get torched by Ronda Rousey in just 34 seconds. She has gone 1-2-1 since, following a questionable decision over Jessica Eye by drawing with Marion Reneau and getting head kicked into oblivion by Holly Holm.
“The Pitbull” will give up four inches of height and reach to Aldana.
Irene Aldana (8-4) entered the Octagon with first-round stoppages in four of her previous five fights, among them finishes of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veterans Peggy Morgan and Jessamyn Duke. She’s had a bit less success in the Octagon, though she snapped a two-fight win streak this past January by beating Talita Bernardo in St. Louis.
She has finished seven opponents in the first round, five of them via (technical) knockout.
This fight entirely boils down to Aldana’s ability to execute. She’s taller, rangier, by far the bigger puncher, and also has the edge in technique. Correia isn’t much of a wrestler, either, so Aldana is free to open up with her combinations.
This is damn near a gimme.
The issue is that Aldana has been reluctant to let her hands go in the past, allowing opponents to stay competitive, and Correia has won some iffy decisions through sheer work rate. Even then, though, there’s just way too much going in Aldana’s favor for me to pick against her. She buries Correia in power punches for a mid-round finish.
Prediction: Aldana via second-round technical knockout
145 lbs.: Matt Sayles vs. Sheymon Moraes
Matt Sayles (7-1) rattled off three amateur wins and five professional victories before dropping a questionable split decision to George Hickman. Coming back stateside, he dispatched Christian Aguilera and Yazan Hajeh in less than four minutes combined, defeating the latter on “Tuesday Night Contender Series.”
He has knocked out six professional opponents, all but one in the first round.
Sheymon Moraes (9-2) — a decorated Muay Thai veteran — saw his undefeated record go up in smoke thanks to Marlon Moraes in his World Series of Fighting (WSOF) title shot. After two more victories, he joined UFC on short notice against another top fighter in Zabit Magomedsharipov, tapping to the young prospect’s anaconda choke in the third round.
He’s one inch taller than Sayles and will have four inches of reach on him.
What makes this interesting is that Sayles will most likely engage Moraes on the feet, and though the Brazilian has the superior striking pedigree, his lack of urgency and volume have resulted in iffy decisions in fights he should have dominated. He’s also worryingly hittable when he throws his left hook, which is a problem considering how often he slings it.
Still, though, he’s a top-notch striker against someone willing to trade in his wheelhouse, which makes this a pick ‘em. A Moraes knockout wouldn’t surprise me, but his inconsistency has me thinking Sayles catches him with a lethal counter at some point.
Prediction: Sayles via second-round technical knockout
125 lbs.: Jose Torres vs. Alex Perez
Jose Torres (8-0) went from the world’s top amateur to Titan FC’s Flyweight and Bantamweight champion in just five fights, both titles which he defended. While bulking up for a crack at the Featherweight belt, “Shorty” got a short-notice call to the Octagon, where he struggled early against Jarred Brooks before “The Monkey God” knocked himself out with a slam.
Torres has knocked out four opponents, including Brooks, and submitted another two.
Alex Perez (20-4) rebounded from the first two-fight skid of his career, which included the loss of his Tachi Flyweight title to future Ultimate Fighter competitor Adam Antolin, with four consecutive regional wins and an anaconda choke of Kevin Gray on “Tuesday Night Contender Series.” He has been equally impressive in UFC itself, choking out Carls John de Tomas and upsetting Eric Shelton by decision.
As you might imagine from his opponent’s nickname, Perez is two inches taller, though their reaches are identical.
Considering the short notice and the massive weight cut Torres had to go through to make 125 pounds, I can forgive his shaky performance against Brooks. When he’s on, “Shorty” is as good as anyone in the world, and I expect we’ll see a much better performance here.
Perez is a damn good wrestler who seriously impressed me against Shelton, but Torres’ boxing is quite a bit sharper, and Perez will find him much more difficult to keep on his back. Torres has the skills to keep it standing, sneak in a takedown or two of his own, and get to work with punching combinations. Perez should take the first round, as Torres is notoriously slow to get going, but expect “Shorty” to take over once the combos start flowing.
Prediction: Torres via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Ricardo Ramos vs. Kyung Ho Kang
Ricardo Ramos (11-1) came up short in his “Lookin’ for a Fight” appearance opposite Manny Vazquez, but earned a call up after choking out future “Tuesday Night Contender Series” hopeful Alfred Khashakyan. Following a decision over Michinori Tanaka, Ramos faced fellow prospect Aiemann Zahabi and wiped him out with an awesome spinning elbow.
He has gone the distance just twice as a professional, submitting six.
Kyung Ho Kang (14-7) put on one of 2014’s best fights against Michinori Tanaka, but was unable to capitalize on his momentum due to South Korea’s mandatory military service. He returned to action earlier this year, choking out TUF: “Latin America” alumn Guido Cannetti at UFC Fight Night 124.
“Mr. Perfect” has submitted 10 opponents and knocked out another two.
Most of the odds are already out for this event and Kang is around a two-to-one underdog. That doesn’t quite reflect the reality, which is that this is an extremely winnable fight for the Korean. Not only can he match Ramos’ height, he looks to be a fair bit thicker than the Brazilian and is enormously strong for the weight. In addition, he’s a sufficiently skilled takedown artist to put Ramos on his back and tricky enough to hold his own on the mat against the Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace.
Kang has faded in the past, but his sheer physicality and ground skills seem like just the ticket to overwhelming the Brazilian. He banks at least two rounds through top control and submission attempts to get the decision.
Prediction: Kang via unanimous decision
115 lbs.: Danielle Taylor vs. Weili Zhang
After a loss to the much, much taller Maryna Moroz in her Octagon debut, Danielle Taylor (9-3) got back on track with narrow decisions over Seo Hee Ham and Jessica Penne. Shew as unable to do the same against J.J. Aldrich, however, and is now sitting on a .500 UFC record.
As usual, the 5’0” Taylor will give up height, specifically four inches this time.
Weili Zhang (19-1) has not tasted defeat since her professional debut, establishing herself as one of China’s best fighters ... period. She has been exceedingly efficient about it, too, going past the second round just once in her current streak.
She has knocked out nine and submitted six.
Some Chinese fighters have greatly exceeded my expectations upon joining UFC, but none have impressed me before their debuts as much as Zhang. She’s aggressive, powerful, entertaining and throws some lovely combinations. She’s borderline Top 10-quality already, an excellent addition to the roster.
Though Taylor has legitimate one-punch power and Zhang has been hurt before, “Dynamite’s” measly 30 percent striking accuracy and notoriously low work rate make this an uphill battle for her. Therefore, expect Zhang to rack up points with her low kicks and boxing on her way to a dominant decision.
Prediction: Zhang via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Marlon Vera vs. Wuliji Buren
Marlon Vera (12-5-1) put together an impressive three-fight win streak, among them stoppages of Brad Pickett and Brina Kelleher, to unexpectedly become a legitimate contender. He has since dropped decisions to power-punchers John Lineker and Douglas Andrade, though neither managed to significantly hurt him.
He steps in for the injured Bharat Khandare on two weeks’ notice.
Wuliji Buren (11-5) joined several of his countrymen in Shanghai in Nov. 2017, debuting against Rolando Dy in the midst of a four-fight winning streak. It wasn’t to be five, as “The Beastmaster” lost a wide decision to the Filipino boxer.
He has stopped six opponents, four by submission.
Khandare vs. Buren would have been an interesting clash of wrestlers. This is just going to be a stomp.
Buren really has no clear advantage here outside of his takedowns, and that weapon just puts him in danger of “Chito’s” submission arsenal. On the feet, Vera is the more proven kickboxer, meaning there’s no apparent avenue of victory for the China native. “Chito” touches him up with long-distance kicks until an ill-advised shot from Buren gives him the chance to lock up his neck.
Prediction: Vera via first-round submission
Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2018: 110-52
135 lbs.: UFC Bantamweight Champion TJ Dillashaw (15-3) vs. Cody “No Love” Garbrandt (11-1)
Nostradumbass predicts: I think it says a lot about the bantamweight division that Cody Garbrandt is getting an immediate rematch when he was knocked out by TJ Dillashaw the first time they went to war back at UFC 217. I understand that it’s not uncommon these days, as it was in the case of Joanna Jedrzejczyk, but the Pole captured the crown in early 2015, then went on to register five straight title defenses. Garbrandt, on the other hand, was unable to defend his strap a single time. The obvious answer is “marketing” and I can’t imagine anyone in the promotion's front office was in a big hurry to give Raphael Assuncao — 1-1 against Dillashaw — the next crack at the bantamweight crown, so here we are. The good news? It’s going to be fireworks.
Typically when two fighters come back around to get after it a second time, there have been some bouts in between to make it easier for us to measure what sort of progress each combatant has made. Sometimes the answer is “none” and that just depends on the fighter. For UFC 227, this is essentially round three of their last fight. Garbrandt undoubtedly watched tape ad nauseam and probably feels confident that he fixed the mistake he made last November, just as Dillashaw believes he righted the wrong that left him wobbled to close out the first frame. At least we weren't subjected to another three months of Team Alpha Male vs. Duane Ludwig headlines. Even a clickety clickster like myself was over that nonsense.
Honestly, I don’t give a shit who wins this fight because it’s going to be bananas from bell-to-bell. As we saw in their first go-round, they match up pretty evenly in all areas. Garbrandt is slightly taller but has a slightly shorter reach. Dillashaw went further in his amateur wrestling career; however, Garbrandt has never been taken down in UFC. This is a question of who makes the first mistake and that’s what makes this fight so dangerous, there is absolutely no margin for error. I know I’m pretty critical of MMA fights that are nothing more than glorified kickboxing matches, but I think in this case — and considering the level of talent inside the cage — I’m willing to make an exception. Garbrandt feels like the right pick on Saturday, simply because the MMA gods love reruns — and hate Dominick Cruz.
Do I hear rubber match?!?
Final prediction: Garbrandt def. Dillashaw by technical knockout
125 lbs.: UFC Flyweight Champion Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson (27-2-1) vs. Henry “The Messenger” Cejudo (12-2)
Nostradumbass predicts: If you don’t enjoy watching Demetrious Johnson fight, then you probably aren’t a real MMA fan. Early criticism of “Mighty Mouse” was certainly warranted, as the flyweight phenom went to the judges’ scorecards in his first seven UFC fights. Nobody wants to watch a five-round sparring match. But then Johnson matured as a fighter and started to get more comfortable with his abilities. A lot of guys are afraid to commit to the finish because it leaves them vulnerable to counterattack, but when you move as fast as the champ does, it doesn’t really matter. I think once he realized that, he went from point fighter to ruthless killer, with seven of his last 10 fights ending by way of knockout or submission.
Including his 2016 destruction of Henry Cejudo.
Cejudo also had his fair share of growing pains, struggling to make the 125-pound limit on multiple occasions. And, like Johnson, he too matured as a fighter and began living as a flyweight instead of just fighting as one. A gold medalist in the 2008 Summer Olympics, “The Messenger” is certainly the most decorated wrestler in the division and he hits pretty hard for a flyweight. But unlike Johnson, he doesn’t know how to seamlessly transition between disciplines. You can almost see him making the conscious decision to shoot or strike as opposed to just adjusting on the fly. It probably doesn’t matter against most of his weight class, simply because he’s the better athlete, but it made his Joseph Benavidez fight way closer than it needed to be and against “Mighty Mouse,” he just got torn apart.
Let’s not bullshit ourselves here. This fight was booked because Johnson cleaned out the division and got injured when TJ Dillashaw offered to come down to flyweight and try that whole “champ champ” thing. That left us with reruns and I already know how this show ends. Despite all his gifts, Cejudo couldn’t seal the deal in 2016 and I don’t believe he’ll be able to do it here, either. I do, however, expect a more measured approach and a few takedowns, but all that will do is get this fight to last 25 minutes ... and not much else. “Mighty Mouse” is faster, has more cage awareness, and owns a much deeper toolbox. Barring something dramatic, expect Johnson to handily win four of the five frames while adding another lap to his UFC record.
Final prediction: Johnson def. Cejudo by unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Cub Swanson (25-9) vs. Renato “Moicano” Carneiro (12-1-1)
Nostradumbass predicts: One of the great things about Cub Swanson, or more specifically his UFC career, is that it proves you don’t have to win a championship title or score some fancy-shmancy sponsor to have a long and prosperous career as an MMA fighter. You simply need to get into the Octagon, put on exciting fights, and not act like a drunken fool every time you’re out in public. To that end, Swanson has been a smashing success and he’s now 16 fights into his UFC run following eight appearances for World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC). There probably isn't a combat sports fan out there — young or old — who hasn't seen Swanson compete at some point over the last 15 years.
I’m not sure what he’s got left at age 34 and his career was littered with post-fight performance bonuses, so damage given is by proxy damage received. I don't want to go crazy over his consecutive losses to Frankie Edgar and Brian Ortega, because those are two of the best featherweights in the game. As far as I can tell, Swanson is still a tremendous boxer with top-shelf cardio and a willingness to engage. That beats most fighters in the 145-pound weight class, including Dustin Poirier (UFC on Fuel TV 7) and Jeremy Stephens (UFC Fight Night 44), though his Swiss cheese submission defense has cost him his fair share of fights, to the tune of six taps in nine losses.
That might be a problem when he tangles with Renato Carneiro, a talented submission specialist who quietly put together a 4-1 record under the UFC banner. Prior to that, “Moicano” — which sounds way too much like “Boitano” — ran the table in Jungle Fight back in his native Brazil. He’s taller and has a longer reach than Swanson, but nobody in his corner is going to advise him to get into a boxing match with the wily veteran, so we can go ahead and just scrap those stats. When a fighter has gotten into double digits in the win column without a knockout, particularly after recycling cans on the local circuit, you know there’s a reason why.
Even as unreliable as Swanson is on submission defense, Carneiro is going to have to get their fight to the floor in order to exploit it. Against someone who’s shared the Octagon with the likes of Edgar, Ortega, Jose Aldo, and Chad Mendes, just to name a few, I find that to be a fairly daunting task. I would expect this to be three rounds of cat-and-mouse as Swanson uses fancy footwork and punishing counterpunches to keep “Moicano” at bay for the better part of 15 minutes. Besides, what has Carneiro done to establish himself as a legit contender outside of a split-decision win over “Lil’ Heathen” back in April 2017? Sorry, I need more.
Final prediction: Swanson def. Carneiro by unanimous decision
115 lbs.: J.J. Aldrich (6-2) vs. Polyana “Dama De Ferro” Viana (10-1)
Nostradumbass predicts: When I first saw that UFC put this bout on the main card, I shook my head and said to myself, “They only did this to get a women’s fight on PPV and in turn they screwed ... [scans UFC 227 line up for household names] ... uh ... you know this is probably going to turn out to be a great addition to the PPV card.” JJ Aldrich has fewer pro fights than her Brazilian foe, but more appearances under the UFC banner. What we’ve seen to date has been unremarkable in every way. After dropping her Octagon debut to Julianna Lima, Aldrich scored back-to-back decision wins over Chanmie Jeon and Danielle Taylor, neither of whom have a winning record in UFC.
Aldrich was expected to be a serious contender on Team Joanna during The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 23, right up until she got bounced in the opening round by Tatiana Suarez. That came as a surprise to most fans, as the Coloradan racked up a 7-4 record on the amateur circuit before going 2-1 in the pros. Her background is in Tae Kwon Do and she’s also a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, though Aldrich has yet to record a submission victory in eight trips to the cage. That’s definitely going to be a factor against Polyana Viana, who comes into this contest the winner of six straight — five of them submissions.
The Brazilian has only been to the scorecards once and that was a decision loss to Aline Sattelmayer under the Real Fight umbrella back in late 2014. Outside of that hiccup, she’s been an absolute terror, finishing nine of her 10 fights inside the first frame. Before we start salivating over that stat I should also point out that only three of her wins came over opponents with a winning record. There is no height or reach advantage in this fight as both strawweights stand 5’5” and hold a 67” reach. Aldrich, however, is a southpaw, for whatever that’s worth in a fight at this level.
Aldrich is a solid fighter with serviceable hands. No question she has skills on the ground to to complement her stand up and make her a complete fighter, but she’s struggled to secure the finish as the competition has gotten stiffer. Viana, meanwhile, continues to seal the deal in each fight and I don’t expect this bout to be the exception. Look for the aggressive “Dama De Ferro” to score an early knockdown and follow Aldrich to the ground, where she locks up the fight-ending tap.
Final prediction: Viana def. Aldrich by submission
185 lbs.: Thiago “Marreta” Santos (17-6) vs. Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland (12-3)
Nostradumbass predicts: It’s hard to know what to expect from Thiago Santos on any given night. This is a middleweight who won four straight fights — all by way of knockout — including last February’s destruction of Anthony “Lionheart” Smith, who is now in the division title hunt after wiping out a couple of ex-champions. Then out of nowhere he gets KTFO by David Branch, a jiu-jitsu specialist who recorded just one KO over the last eight years. Prior to that, “Marreta” had yet another four-fight win streak derailed when he went down in flames against Gegard Mousasi.
The Brazilian has 12 knockouts in 17 wins — eight of them in the first round — so we know he’s not going to enter the Octagon and pull guard. We also know he’s about as tough as they come, thanks to his time spent as an army paratrooper That’s probably why only one of his six losses have gone to the scorecards. Santos is there to kill or be killed, but his inability to stay consistent has kept him from sniffing a title shot. To be honest, I’m not sure there’s anything he can do on Saturday night to change that, win or lose.
Kevin Holland (no relation) makes his Octagon debut after a strong showing on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, where he returned a decision victory against Will Santiago Jr. I guess the biggest knock on that performance is how it didn't live up to “The Trailblazer’s” incessant yammering about how great he’s been. To his credit, his record backs it up, sporting a 8-1 mark dating back to late 2015 with eight finishes, including his one-off in Bellator MMA last March. Holland is a credible threat to the division, but he’s still got a long way to go in terms of proving he can hang with the Top 10.
One of the biggest concerns for Santos is overcoming a five-inch reach advantage. In addition, Holland also enjoys a three-inch edge in height and could probably make this bout a protracted sparring session if he knew how to effectively utilize the jab. It’s kind of amazing to me that we’re now in 2018 and the jab is still not at the forefront of every striker’s arsenal. I know Santos is getting up there in age, but 34 is not 44 and at age 25, Holland may not yet be in his prime. How could he be? This is his Octagon debut and we just don't know what to expect from a rookie who draws a main card slot on a major PPV. Until he proves otherwise, I have to side with the combatant who’s already proven himself against some of the toughest guys in the division. Expect Santos to get knocked around for awhile, then get pissed off and charge in with his Brazilian blitzkrieg, slicing right through any defense in the process.
Final prediction: Santos def. Holland by technical knockout
135 lbs.: Pedro Munhoz vs. Brett Johns
Despite a rocky 1-2 (1 NC) start to his Octagon career, Pedro Munhoz (15-3) prove his hype was legit with four consecutive victories, including bonus-winning submissions of Russell Doane, Justin Scoggins and Rob Font. He couldn’t quite chase down John Dodson, though, dropping a split decision to him at UFC 222.
Nine of his professional wins have come by submission, six of them via guillotine.
Conversely, Brett Johns (15-1) got to work right off the bat in the Octagon, winning his first three fights and scoring one of 2017’s best submissions with his calf slicer of Joe Soto. Against Aljamain Sterling, however, he struggled to get his wrestling going and ultimately lost a wide decision.
“The Pikey” will have a seven-inch reach advantage.
I’m a lot more conflicted about this fight than I expected. Munhoz looks like the clear choice on the surface, as his guillotine makes trying to wrestle with him a dicey proposition, but the Brazilian’s striking just hasn’t developed the way it should have. He was losing the stand up against both Scoggins and Font, and he’s never had good wrestling.
If nothing else, “The Pikey” can take a shot and has some solid boxing. Munhoz won’t be able to drag a panic takedown out of him or consistently get inside that huge reach advantage. I’m probably leaning too much on my gut, but I’ve got Johns for the upset.
Prediction: Johns via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Ricky Simon vs. Montel Jackson
The first victory for Ricky Simon (13-1) Dana White’s “Tuesday Night Contender Series” wasn’t enough to get him a contract, so he won and defended the LFA Bantamweight title to make his case for a contract. He wound up in one of the wildest debuts in recent memory, a “Fight of the Night” barnburner against Merab Dvalishvili that ended in a buzzer-beater.
At 5’6,” he will give up two inches of height and six inches of reach to Jackson.
Montel Jackson (6-0) went 8-1 as an amateur with six knockouts and two submissions before making the jump to the professional circuit in 2017. One year almost to the day after his debut, he took part in the “Tuesday Night Contender Series” and knocked out Rico DiSciullo on the Season 2 premiere.
Five of his six professional wins have come by knockout, three of them in the first round.
There’s a lot to like about both of these fighters. Two young, aggressive Bantamweights with well-rounded skillsets who turned in impressive recent performances. Though Jackson has the size and looks to be the bigger heater, Simon’s seasoning looks like it’ll be the key difference.
Jackson hasn’t faced anywhere near the competition Simon has and, crucially, took this fight on less than two weeks’ notice after Benito Lopez had to pull out. Simon’s ability to mix his striking and wrestling should allow him to get inside that reach difference and land enough strikes and takedowns to get the win.
Prediction: Simon via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Bethe Correia vs. Irene Aldana
Bethe Correia (10-3-1) punched her way to a UFC title shot with victories over Julie Kedzie, Jessamyn Duke and Shayna Baszler, only to get torched by Ronda Rousey in just 34 seconds. She has gone 1-2-1 since, following a questionable decision over Jessica Eye by drawing with Marion Reneau and getting head kicked into oblivion by Holly Holm.
“The Pitbull” will give up four inches of height and reach to Aldana.
Irene Aldana (8-4) entered the Octagon with first-round stoppages in four of her previous five fights, among them finishes of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veterans Peggy Morgan and Jessamyn Duke. She’s had a bit less success in the Octagon, though she snapped a two-fight win streak this past January by beating Talita Bernardo in St. Louis.
She has finished seven opponents in the first round, five of them via (technical) knockout.
This fight entirely boils down to Aldana’s ability to execute. She’s taller, rangier, by far the bigger puncher, and also has the edge in technique. Correia isn’t much of a wrestler, either, so Aldana is free to open up with her combinations.
This is damn near a gimme.
The issue is that Aldana has been reluctant to let her hands go in the past, allowing opponents to stay competitive, and Correia has won some iffy decisions through sheer work rate. Even then, though, there’s just way too much going in Aldana’s favor for me to pick against her. She buries Correia in power punches for a mid-round finish.
Prediction: Aldana via second-round technical knockout
145 lbs.: Matt Sayles vs. Sheymon Moraes
Matt Sayles (7-1) rattled off three amateur wins and five professional victories before dropping a questionable split decision to George Hickman. Coming back stateside, he dispatched Christian Aguilera and Yazan Hajeh in less than four minutes combined, defeating the latter on “Tuesday Night Contender Series.”
He has knocked out six professional opponents, all but one in the first round.
Sheymon Moraes (9-2) — a decorated Muay Thai veteran — saw his undefeated record go up in smoke thanks to Marlon Moraes in his World Series of Fighting (WSOF) title shot. After two more victories, he joined UFC on short notice against another top fighter in Zabit Magomedsharipov, tapping to the young prospect’s anaconda choke in the third round.
He’s one inch taller than Sayles and will have four inches of reach on him.
What makes this interesting is that Sayles will most likely engage Moraes on the feet, and though the Brazilian has the superior striking pedigree, his lack of urgency and volume have resulted in iffy decisions in fights he should have dominated. He’s also worryingly hittable when he throws his left hook, which is a problem considering how often he slings it.
Still, though, he’s a top-notch striker against someone willing to trade in his wheelhouse, which makes this a pick ‘em. A Moraes knockout wouldn’t surprise me, but his inconsistency has me thinking Sayles catches him with a lethal counter at some point.
Prediction: Sayles via second-round technical knockout
125 lbs.: Jose Torres vs. Alex Perez
Jose Torres (8-0) went from the world’s top amateur to Titan FC’s Flyweight and Bantamweight champion in just five fights, both titles which he defended. While bulking up for a crack at the Featherweight belt, “Shorty” got a short-notice call to the Octagon, where he struggled early against Jarred Brooks before “The Monkey God” knocked himself out with a slam.
Torres has knocked out four opponents, including Brooks, and submitted another two.
Alex Perez (20-4) rebounded from the first two-fight skid of his career, which included the loss of his Tachi Flyweight title to future Ultimate Fighter competitor Adam Antolin, with four consecutive regional wins and an anaconda choke of Kevin Gray on “Tuesday Night Contender Series.” He has been equally impressive in UFC itself, choking out Carls John de Tomas and upsetting Eric Shelton by decision.
As you might imagine from his opponent’s nickname, Perez is two inches taller, though their reaches are identical.
Considering the short notice and the massive weight cut Torres had to go through to make 125 pounds, I can forgive his shaky performance against Brooks. When he’s on, “Shorty” is as good as anyone in the world, and I expect we’ll see a much better performance here.
Perez is a damn good wrestler who seriously impressed me against Shelton, but Torres’ boxing is quite a bit sharper, and Perez will find him much more difficult to keep on his back. Torres has the skills to keep it standing, sneak in a takedown or two of his own, and get to work with punching combinations. Perez should take the first round, as Torres is notoriously slow to get going, but expect “Shorty” to take over once the combos start flowing.
Prediction: Torres via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Ricardo Ramos vs. Kyung Ho Kang
Ricardo Ramos (11-1) came up short in his “Lookin’ for a Fight” appearance opposite Manny Vazquez, but earned a call up after choking out future “Tuesday Night Contender Series” hopeful Alfred Khashakyan. Following a decision over Michinori Tanaka, Ramos faced fellow prospect Aiemann Zahabi and wiped him out with an awesome spinning elbow.
He has gone the distance just twice as a professional, submitting six.
Kyung Ho Kang (14-7) put on one of 2014’s best fights against Michinori Tanaka, but was unable to capitalize on his momentum due to South Korea’s mandatory military service. He returned to action earlier this year, choking out TUF: “Latin America” alumn Guido Cannetti at UFC Fight Night 124.
“Mr. Perfect” has submitted 10 opponents and knocked out another two.
Most of the odds are already out for this event and Kang is around a two-to-one underdog. That doesn’t quite reflect the reality, which is that this is an extremely winnable fight for the Korean. Not only can he match Ramos’ height, he looks to be a fair bit thicker than the Brazilian and is enormously strong for the weight. In addition, he’s a sufficiently skilled takedown artist to put Ramos on his back and tricky enough to hold his own on the mat against the Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace.
Kang has faded in the past, but his sheer physicality and ground skills seem like just the ticket to overwhelming the Brazilian. He banks at least two rounds through top control and submission attempts to get the decision.
Prediction: Kang via unanimous decision
115 lbs.: Danielle Taylor vs. Weili Zhang
After a loss to the much, much taller Maryna Moroz in her Octagon debut, Danielle Taylor (9-3) got back on track with narrow decisions over Seo Hee Ham and Jessica Penne. Shew as unable to do the same against J.J. Aldrich, however, and is now sitting on a .500 UFC record.
As usual, the 5’0” Taylor will give up height, specifically four inches this time.
Weili Zhang (19-1) has not tasted defeat since her professional debut, establishing herself as one of China’s best fighters ... period. She has been exceedingly efficient about it, too, going past the second round just once in her current streak.
She has knocked out nine and submitted six.
Some Chinese fighters have greatly exceeded my expectations upon joining UFC, but none have impressed me before their debuts as much as Zhang. She’s aggressive, powerful, entertaining and throws some lovely combinations. She’s borderline Top 10-quality already, an excellent addition to the roster.
Though Taylor has legitimate one-punch power and Zhang has been hurt before, “Dynamite’s” measly 30 percent striking accuracy and notoriously low work rate make this an uphill battle for her. Therefore, expect Zhang to rack up points with her low kicks and boxing on her way to a dominant decision.
Prediction: Zhang via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Marlon Vera vs. Wuliji Buren
Marlon Vera (12-5-1) put together an impressive three-fight win streak, among them stoppages of Brad Pickett and Brina Kelleher, to unexpectedly become a legitimate contender. He has since dropped decisions to power-punchers John Lineker and Douglas Andrade, though neither managed to significantly hurt him.
He steps in for the injured Bharat Khandare on two weeks’ notice.
Wuliji Buren (11-5) joined several of his countrymen in Shanghai in Nov. 2017, debuting against Rolando Dy in the midst of a four-fight winning streak. It wasn’t to be five, as “The Beastmaster” lost a wide decision to the Filipino boxer.
He has stopped six opponents, four by submission.
Khandare vs. Buren would have been an interesting clash of wrestlers. This is just going to be a stomp.
Buren really has no clear advantage here outside of his takedowns, and that weapon just puts him in danger of “Chito’s” submission arsenal. On the feet, Vera is the more proven kickboxer, meaning there’s no apparent avenue of victory for the China native. “Chito” touches him up with long-distance kicks until an ill-advised shot from Buren gives him the chance to lock up his neck.
Prediction: Vera via first-round submission
Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2018: 110-52
4-8
Worst write up I've seen out of MMA Mania.
How many tailed these picks for a loss?
