- Auto tribal tattoo fade in effect. Shogun (ML +187)and KO/TKO/SUB prop +333. (Betway).
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Comment -
lol ^Comment -
surprised more people arent on Texeira at -150 price tagComment -
Hey, a couple good posts from the Covers forum...I don't think I'll touch Stasiak though:
UglyKidJoe PM UglyKidJoeJoined: Apr 2005
Posts: 12054
All-Starquote#1
Posted: 7/20/2018 12:39:20 AM
Stuff from China. Liu started his pro career 0-4 but has since has won 11 of his last 12, all in his homeland. That record might look impressive to some people, but to me it seems likely opponents were low quality for to inflate his Chinese ranking, and winning 12 out of last 12 probably would look too suspicious, so he lost one. Liu, I'm expecting, will get beat up first time outside his country, by finally facing some decent competition. He'll fight Pole Stasiak, who has 7 submissions.
Pick: Stasiak -110, (not sure how many units yet).Comment -
UglyKidJoe PM UglyKidJoeJoined: Apr 2005
Posts: 12054
All-Starquote#2
Posted: 7/20/2018 5:22:43 PM
Records of Liu's L6 opponents, 4-5, 11-8, 5-5, 5-3, 0-2*, 0-1*...........totals 25-24
Record of Stasiak's L6 opponents,
19-9, 15-3, 10-3*, 13-2*, 21-11, 11-1*.....totals 89-29
So Liu fought a couple of chumps who had records of 0-2 and
0-1, while Stasiak fought some opponents who were 10-3, 13-2, and 11-1, which he won all three. There shows the difference in selection of quality of opponents.
Throw in Jet Lag, China to Germany is -6 hours, Poland to Germany, is zero hours.
Advantage StasiakComment -
One angle to consider...? German fighters at home?Comment -
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Probably gonna be totally off the grid tomorrow and catching these fights on delay in the evening, so I'll post my bets now. Not super confident on this card by any means, but sprinkling some plays here and there:
Ledet -125, 1.5u to win 1.2u
Haqparast +140, 1u to win 1.4u
Rua +170, 1u to win 1.7u
Rua/Smith o1.5 +110, 2u to win 2.2u
Tybura + Narimani parlay +105, 1u to win 1.05u
That's all for now. Probably won't add more and will be in the dark on these until tomorrow night. Good luck everyone.Comment -
Late to the party.. MMA predictions...
205 lbs.: Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (25-10) vs. Anthony “Lionheart” Smith (29-13)
I’m going to take off my “Pride Never Die” hat for a minute here.
I’m perfectly aware that “Shogun” is a shadow of his former self. Physical decline, knee issues, his tendency to slug it out even when he should be mixing in his knees and leg kicks, and general wear-and-tear have rendered him an average fighter whose ranking only exists because light heavyweight is the most top-heavy division in the UFC. Knocking out Gian Villante, whom I considered the organization’s biggest underachiever before Justin Scoggins rolled around, isn’t going to change my mind.
All he’s really got left is his punch, and while that could be enough against “Lionheart,” I doubt it will be. Smith’s durability has looked a lot better in recent years, his only stoppage loss since 2013 coming from Thiago Santos’ horrifying body kick, and he has the gas tank and volume to capitalize when opponents wear themselves out trying to overwhelm him in the early going.
Shogun has been increasingly reliant on his takedowns in recent years, an area in which Smith still struggles, but that’s a calorically expensive strategy that I’m not sure he can maintain for 25 minutes at the age of 36. He needs the early finish, otherwise Smith is going to put him through the grinder once his gas tank runs out.
The potential for a stunning highlight-reel finish is still there, of course, but I can’t trust Shogun’s durability, gas tank, or gameplanning anymore. Smith drops the first couple of rounds to repeated takedowns before butting the hurt on a fading Rua in the championship rounds.
Prediction: Smith by fourth-round TKO
205 lbs.: Glover Teixeira (27-6) vs. Corey “Overtime” Anderson (10-4)
It legitimately feels weird to think about how Teixeira has spent six years in the UFC and fought 14 times. Some nostalgic part of my brain still thinks of him as that one guy with **** problems tearing up the Brazilian scene and showing up on every “best fighter outside the UFC” list.
Time flies.
Even if he’s 38 and on the downslope, though, this is a very winnable fight for him. Teixeira has by and large done well against wrestlers and, even when he does get taken down, tends to scramble up extremely quickly. Anderson’s standup, while ever-improving, isn’t dangerous enough to crack the Brazilian’s increasingly shaky jaw and he’s not going to out-cardio a guy who’s gone five hard rounds before.
Teixeira’s original opponent, Ilir Latifi, presented a considerable threat thanks to “The Sledgehammer’s” brutal punching power. Anderson, by contrast, is going to struggle to bring it to the mat on his terms and lacks that threat of one-punch annihilation. Teixeira’s sprawl and vaunted right hand give Anderson his fourth UFC knockout loss.
Prediction: Teixeira by first-round knockout
185 lbs.: Vitor “Lex Luthor” Miranda (12-6) vs. Abu “Gladiator” Azaitar (13-2-1)
Fun fact: Azaitar was supposed to debut almost a year ago against Siyar Bahadurzada, which would have been an absolutely wild slugfest. While this doesn’t have the same visceral potential, it’s definitely a more interesting fight from a stylistic perspective.
If you’ve never seen Azaitar fight, he throws looping punches and heavy single kicks while waiting for the opportunity to secure a takedown. He’s got decent power, having finished the iron-tough Jack Marshman with strikes, but there’s no nuance to his striking offense. Worse, he’s not that great a wrestler either offensively or defensively, having wound up on the bottom more than once against the 11-10-1 Danny Davis Jr.
What makes this interesting is that his flaws match Miranda’s strength and vice-versa. Miranda is a lethal kickboxer with serious power in all four limbs, but he’s patient to a fault in the standup and has an underdeveloped wrestling game. Both of these men have the tools to destroy the other if they play their cards right.
The deciding factor could be that Azaitar has been out of action since 2016 and has an energy-inefficient style, while Miranda can go all three rounds. The German hits a few early takedowns, but ultimately burns himself out and leaves himself open to Miranda’s sledgehammer strikes.
Prediction: Miranda by third-round TKO
265 lbs.: Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve (28-10) vs. Marcin “Tybur” Tybura (16-4)
Can someone please convince Struve to retire for his own sake? He’s been knocked out seven times and has yet to fix any of the gaping flaws in his game after nearly a decade in the Octagon. He got outwrestled by what’s left of Andre Arlovski for God’s sake.
I would prefer he remember his own name by the time he turns 40.
“Tybur” isn’t as immediately dangerous as Mark Hunt, Alistair Overeem, or Alexander Volkov are, but he’s a skilled and well-rounded striker with the wrestling to put Struve on his back as needed, and for all the talk of how dangerous Struve’s guard is, the only people he’s submitted from there are Pat Barry and Lavar Johnson, both of whom have the submission defense of an intoxicated wombat.
Without the ability to keep Tybura at the end of his reach, the takedowns to put him on his back and unleash his legitimately dangerous top game, or the durability to withstand the Pole’s bigger shots, Struve’s outlook looks grim. His only real hope is to outlast Tybura the way Derrick Lewis did and put him away late, but without “The Black Beast’s” strength, he’s going to have a lot more trouble draining Tybura’s gas tank from the bottom. “Tybur” pieces him up on the feet, backs him to the fence, and takes him down as many times as needed to get the decision.
Prediction: Tybura by unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Marc “Bonecrusher” Diakiese (12-2) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (8-2)
In all honesty, this matchup probably has the greatest Fight of the Night potential of any of the main card bouts. Both men are athletic dynamos with serious stopping power and aggression for days. They’re also fonder of power punches than jabs, so don’t expect the tentative potshotting we sometimes get when two big hitters duke it out.
The X-factor here is Diakiese’s wrestling, which he is more than happy to fall back on if things get too hairy on the feet. Haqparast was so eager for the knockout against Marcin Held that he surrendered takedowns in all three rounds, and while Diakiese is nowhere near the Pole’s equal on the jiu-jitsu front, he’s far more dangerous in the standup, which should compromises Haqparast’s takedown defense.
The lower-case x-factor, however, is Haqparast’s youth and time at quality gyms like Kings MMA and Tristar. At 22 years old, he could easily have improved exponentially in the year since his UFC debut. There’s a cliché about making assumptions, though, so I’ve got to go with what I’ve seen. A one-punch knockout either way would not surprise me at all, but expect Diakiese to win enough exchanges and spend enough time on top to secure the decision.
Prediction: Diakiese by unanimous decision
170 lbs.: David “Sagat” Zawada (16-3) vs. Danny “Hot Chocolate” Roberts (15-3)
I cannot, for the life of me, find any recordings of Zawada’s KSW bouts. He’s fought some very solid opposition, including future promotional champion Borys Mankowsi and UFC vets Andreas Stahl and Maciej Jewtuszko, so there’s plenty of good footage out there. I just can’t find and/or access any of it.
Looking at some older tape, he looks like a trip-focused grappler with decent standup and good stopping power on both the feet and the ground. It’s a good skillset and should carry him to a decent UFC run. Not sure it’s enough against Roberts, though.
The Brit suffers from a shaky chin, which gives all of his fights an air of danger, but he should be able to match Zawada wherever the fight goes and has the advantage of a full training camp. Sorry I can’t offer more substantive analysis, but I can only work with what I’ve got. Roberts wins a fun, competitive decision.
Prediction: Roberts by unanimous decisionComment -
Prelims MMA Mania....
135 lbs.: Manny Bermudez (12-0) vs. Davey Grant (8-3)
Bermudez caught the UFC’s eye with nine first-round finishes in his first eleven victories, including several in under two minutes. It took him a bit longer in his UFC debut, but he nonetheless got the finish via guillotine against Albert Morales. All but one of his eight submission wins has come by choke.
Grant, the runner-up on The Ultimate Fighter 18, has faced difficulties both in and out of the ring, debuting in 2013 and fighting just three times in that span. He was supposed to fight Bermudez in May, but came down with a staph infection just days before showtime. He stands two inches taller than Bermudez at 5’8.”
Bermudez’s ultimate ceiling will boil down to how well his wrestling develops. As lethal as his ground game is, it’s not worth squat if he can’t consistently get it to the ground. Grant is a capable enough wrestler for this to be an informative matchup and a decent test that I believe Bermudez can pass.
After seeing Grant struggle with Damian Stasiak, I don’t see him having a lot more success against a spry young submission artist, especially with nearly two years of rust to shake off. Bermudez scores an early takedown and secures a fight-ending choke on the way back up.
Prediction: Bermudez by first-round submission
205 lbs.: Jeremy Kimball (15-7) vs. Darko Stosic (12-1)
Kimball’s short-notice UFC debut against Marcos Rogério de Lima went disastrously, but “Grizzly” bounced back with a bonus-winning knockout of Josh Stansbury in just 81 seconds. Things went right back to disastrous, though, as he tapped to a Dominick Reyes choke in Detroit. All but one of Kimball’s victories since 2013 have come inside the distance.
A protégé of Mirko Cro Cop, Stosic has knocked out seven professional opponents, all but one of them in the first round. His current eight-fight winning streak includes two finishes in under a minute and a first-round stoppage via leg kicks. This will be his light heavyweight debut.
If you’ve got a dangerous new striker to welcome into the UFC, Kimball’s your man; he’s durable and skilled enough on the feet to pose a threat and too incompetent on the mat to start wrestling if things go south. He should be lunchmeat against Stosic, who packs quite a bit more power and can take things to the mat should he get into dire straits.
My only real reservation here is that Stosic is 230 pounds and built like a brick wall. Each leg alone look like it would have to cut to make lightweight. So long as he can drop the weight safely, though, this is a heavyweight against a blown-up middleweight. Stosic tears up that lead leg for a late finish.
Prediction: Stosic by third-round TKO
145 lbs.: Damian Stasiak (10-5) vs. Liu Pingyuan (11-5)
After getting outwrestled by Yaotzin Meza in his Octagon debut, Stasiak proved his grappling chops were still legit with impressive submissions over Filip Pejic and Davey Grant. He couldn’t do the same against fellow submission artist Pedro Munhoz and, one fight later, fell to Brian Kelleher’s relentless pressure in a Fight of the Night war. “Webster’s” seven submission wins include five by rear naked choke.
Liu, one of the stars of China’s ** Lin Feng promotion, picked up five wins in 2016 and two more in 2017 before signing to the UFC. He was set to debut against Bharat Khandare in Shanghai, but wound up withdrawing due to injury, allowing Song Yadong to make his first Octagon appearance instead. He has won 11 of his last 12 after starting his pro career 0-4.
Liu looks like another solid prospect out of China. Going by his shirt in one of his more recent fights, he’s training out of Tiger Muay Thai, which is one of Asia’s best camps. He’s got power, plenty of aggression, and can finish things on the mat as well.
His issue right now is polish; he’s so fixated on the knockout that he tends to overextend with his power swings. In addition, he’s fairly unproven against decent opposition. If nothing else, Stasiak is tough as nails and has a nasty submission game. Liu has the tools to be a contender, but for right now, I say Stasiak capitalizes on his overeagerness to lock up an early finish.
Prediction: Stasiak by first-round submission
155 lbs.: Nick Hein (14-3-1) vs. Damir Hadzovic (11-4)
“Sergeant” Hein opened his UFC career strong with wins in four of his first five Octagon appearances, the only defeat a decision against James Vick in which Hein dropped the towering striker in the first round. Injury resulted in nearly two years on the bench, though, and Davi Ramos welcomed him back to the Octagon in May by choking him out in Rio. He will give up three inches of height and reach to “The Bosnian Bomber.”
Hadzovic had the misfortune of facing Mairbek Taisumov in his debut, succumbing to the Chechen’s monstrous power, but fought back from the brink of disaster against Marcin Held with one of 2017’s many incredible knees. There would be no such heroics against Alan Patrick, who used his length and wrestling to take an uneventful unanimous decision. He has knocked out six opponents overall.
Props to Hein for not dwelling on the loss, I suppose. Quick turnarounds aren’t always the best idea, but he took basically no damage before tapping to Ramos and is facing a much more winnable matchup. While Hadzovic has power, he’s been losing in almost every second of his Octagon career save for that knee. His takedown defense just isn’t Octagon-worthy and Hein can hold his own on the feet, as well.
Hein’s durability and well-roundedness mean Hadzovic will struggle to take him out of his comfort zone. Whether trading punches or controlling Hadzovic on the mat, Hein cruises to an easy decision.
Prediction: Hein by unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Emil Weber Meek (9-3-1) vs. Bartosz Fabinski (13-2)
UFC fans’ new favorite Viking followed up his surprise knockout of Rousimar Palhares with an upset decision over Jordan Mein in his Octagon debut. A one-year hiatus followed thanks to injury and **** issues, after which Kamaru Usman outwrestled him to a decision. Meek has knocked out seven pro opponents and submitted one other.
Poland’s Fabinski rode a 7-1 run into the UFC, which included five first-round knockouts. He went on to defeat Garreth McLellan in his debut, then dropped to Welterweight to outclass Hector Urbina in Monterrey. This will be his first fight since November of 2015.
If one were to troll the depths of the Welterweight division’s middle-tier, one would not find a worse matchup for Meek than Fabinski. The Pole is immensely strong and has a single-minded devotion to racking up unreasonable amounts of takedowns. He got McLellan and Urbina down a combined 16 times and maintained that pace well into the third round.
Meek’s a dangerous striker with balls of steel, but his weaknesses aren’t exactly secrets at this point.
The real concern for Fabinski is the layoff; he pushes such a hard pace that he can’t afford any cardio mishaps. Assuming he’s kept himself in shape, expect him to rack up another half-dozen takedowns or so, keeping Meek from ever getting anything going on the feet.
Prediction: Fabinski by unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Nad Narimani (10-2) vs. Khalid Taha (12-1)
Narimani, whose first name has thoroughly confused Microsoft Word into giving it both blue and red squiggles, fell short in his first bid at Cage Warriors gold against Alex Enlund, but overpowered prospect Paddy Pimblett three fights later to win the belt. He was supposed to debut in London against Nasrat Haqparast, but the latter suffered a gnarly eye infection that forced officials to cancel the bout. Half of his wins have come by submission.
Taha brought an undefeated record into RIZIN’s Bantamweight grand prix and promptly bolstered it with a first-round finish of Keita Ishibashi. He went on to face veteran Takafumi Otsuka in the quarters, tapping to a guillotine after dominating the opening rounds, but picked up a win in Jakarta this past May. He is an inch shorter and six years younger than Narimani.
Taha is a young, powerful fighter who mixes his strikes to the legs, body, and head quite well. He’s also athletic enough to explode out of bad positions if needed. The problem is that he struggles to defend the takedowns themselves, which is not a good problem to have against a capable wrestler in Narimani who can match or exceed Taha’s physicality.
The striking is fairly evenly matched, with Taha looking like the more versatile of the two, but the German is facing a steep disparity in both wrestling and experience against solid competition. Narimani takes him down repeatedly until a finishing opportunity opens up.
Prediction: Narimani by second-round submission
205 lbs.: Justin Ledet (9-0) vs. Aleksandar Rakic (9-1)
Ledet took a 3.5-year break from the sport to try his hand at boxing, racking up a 5-0 record before returning to MMA in 2016. He’s gone 3-0 in the UFC itself, most recently scraping by Contender Series import Zu Anyanwu last September. This will be his first appearance at light heavyweight since his return.
Rakic, an experienced kickboxer, has not tasted defeat since his professional debut, stopping eight consecutive opponents en route to joining the UFC. His Octagon debut saw him outclass Francimar Barroso, though a follow-up bout with Gadzhimurad Antigulov wound up falling through. Seven of his stoppage wins have come by form of knockout, five of them in the first round.
Now here’s an interesting matchup, an experienced boxer against an experienced kickboxer. It’ll also be good to see Ledet when he’s not carrying all that extra weight.
Honestly, though, I think Ledet may have been better-suited to heavyweight, where a decent jab is all that’s needed to be considered a standout striker. At 205, he’s got to deal with faster, more complete fighters. They’re also going to generally be more in-shape, meaning they can actually push the pace and not just eat jabs all night.
Ledet’s complete lack of killer instinct could come back to bite him here, as Rakic has some stopping power and packs a lot more weapons. Rakic lands enough power kicks and right hands to narrowly offset “El Blanco’s” innumerable jabs.
Prediction: Rakic by split decisionComment -
First I am making a gamble that Anderson will show significant improvement (which he has in every fight, OSP withstanding until he got rocked with that kick in the 3rd). I think he can win by using his length to control it standing. If it goes to the ground, Anderson just needs to do enough as Glover doesn't really stay grounded for long generally.
I went small and got a good line, but I am also hedging Tex either handicap or ITD, waiting closer to fight time. Still think Glover will fall to -125 before fight, so I'm waiting patiently. See you in the am gents.Comment -
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Anyone know if Hugo is gonna post his picks?Comment -
UFC Fight Night 134: Shogun vs. Smith Picks:
Damian Stasiak Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Darko Stosic Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Manny Bermudez Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Justin Ledet Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Nad Narimani Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Bartosz Fabinski Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Nick Hein Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Marc Diakiese Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Danny Roberts Round 1 KO (Punches)
Marcin Tybura Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Abu Azaitar Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Glover Teixeira Round 1 KO (Punches)
Shogun Rua Round 3 TKO (Punches)Comment -
UFC Fight Night 134: Shogun vs. Smith
Fight Pass Prelims:
Fight #1: Stasiak vs. Pingyuan (DEBUT)
Stasiak (-110) 1.65u to win 1.5u
Stasiak ITD (+210) 1u
Fight #2: Stosic (DEBUT) vs. Kimball
Stosic ITD (-130) 1.3u to win 1u
Stosic Submission (+650) 1u
Fight #3: Bermudez vs. Grant
Bermudez ITD (+115) 2.5u
Bermudez Round (+225) 1u
Hedge(s):
Grant ITD (+443) .75u
Grant Submission (+1125) .25u
Fox Sports 1 Prelims:
Fight #4: Ledet vs. Rakic
Ledet (-125) 2.5u to win 2u
Ledet Decision (+209) .5u
Fight #5: Narimani (DEBUT) vs. Taha (DEBUT)
Narimani Submission (+225) 1u
Hedge:
Taha KO/TKO (+675) .5u
Fight #6: Fabinski vs. Meek
Fabinski (+205) 2.5u
Hedge(s):
Meek ITD (+225) 1u
Meek Submission (+953) .5u
Fight #7: Hein v. Hadzovic
Hein -3.5 (+150) .5u
Hedge:
Hadzovic KO/TKO (+550) .5u
Main Card:
Fight #8: Diakiese vs. Haqparast
Haqparast ITD (+320) 1u
Fight #9: Roberts vs. Zawada (DEBUT)
Zawada (+310) 2u
Zawada KO/TKO (+615) .5u
Fight #10: Tybura vs. Struve
Parlays
Fight #11: Azaitar (DEBUT) vs. Miranda
Parlays
Hedge:
Miranda KO/TKO (+440) .5u
Fight #12: Teixeira vs. Anderson
Teixeira (-145) 2.175u to win 1.5u
Teixeira Submission (+825) .5u
Hedge:
Anderson Decision (+350) 1u
Fight #13: Rua vs. Smith
Rua (+195) 3u
Rua KO/TKO (+445) 1u
Straight Parlays:
Hein/Teixeira (+125) 1u
Tybura/Azaitar (+130) 2u
Narimani/Hein (+130) 1u
Ledet/Hein (+142) 1u
Ledet/Narimani/Fabinski (+534) .25u
Prop Parlays:
Bermudez+Grant WGD/Rua+Smith WGD (+111) 2.5u
Hein+Hadzovic Goes Distance/Tybura (+114) 1u
Narimani+Taha WGD/Roberts+Zawada WGD (+160) 1u
Stasiak/Stosic+Kimball WSR3/Bermudez+Grant WSR3 (+328) .5u
Full Card Props:
Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+194) 1.25u
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+483) .5u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+1337) .25u
Multi-Event Parlays:
NoneComment -
Let's go StasiakComment -
Bad decision to start the day, nice.Comment -
I guess takedowns & top control aren't going to mean much on this card.
I honestly thought that there was no way Stasiak lost after hearing that it was a unanimous decComment -
Let's go Kimball +263Comment -
two weak fighters but liu clearly did more damage and more shots landed. Stasiak fought the damian"pussy" maia style, although he had more TDs but did very little damage.Comment -
Darko Stosic is some type of judo champion.
That could give him the edge given how Kimball hasn't looked the greatest with his wrestling/grappling in the past.Comment -
Kimball probably would've won that fight had he not went for a dumbass TD.Comment -
Kimball didn’t do his HW apparently. That TD attempt was a really poor choice. Stosic very good at shucking off TD attempts and reversing them to top position.Comment -
Jep.
Kimball's wrestling/ground game was suspect and Stosic capitalized.Comment -
you have got to be kidding me with that 1st fight..JFC
Comment -
Let's go Grant +274
& Over 1.5 evComment -
Lol its so damn earlyComment -
Picked Grant in Toutmaster but couldn’t bring myself to bet him. The time is coming to fade Bermudez, and if Grant brings a brain with him into the cage he just may get it done but he’s not historically been an IQ fighter.Comment
