UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman (May 19, 2018)

[the1yankee]

5 more minutes of sloppiness

[Bad Tattoo]

Round 4 - Usman

[the1yankee]

Nice hit on the decision

Whoever played it

[Thrilla]

Nice hit on the decision

Whoever played it

LOL

[firekillex]

usman has a solid jab and straight
all his power punches are terrible

this fight just showed hes definitely not ready to take that belt but he has a lot of room to grow
would like to see him get the Till/Wonderboy winner for the next title fight after RDA/Covington
still needs 1-2 fights before anything imo, his striking didnt look great at all tonight, fighting Woodley who wont get taken down by him hed most likely get KOD after seeing that

[Hugo de Naranja]

Cash that Usman UD boys

[the1yankee]

Damn grape ape couldn't get it done

[Bad Tattoo]

Round 5 - Usman

Boring scrap ...I thought Maia had a chance to clip him on the feet...he was so desperate for the takedown

[the1yankee]

Cash that Usman UD boys

Nice hit Hugo

Shoulda listened to ya hugo

[rsynweap84]

Fuckin oosman, absoulutley useless, can't beat an old man in dominant finish fashion...should be deported to his shithole...sorry but damian took you to r5.....you should be back in ebola country...he's like a fu**in grandpa...

shit main event...

you didn't break shit you niggerian dick!

[Thrilla]

[Thrilla]

rsynweap shut the fukk up dumb piece of sh*t

[Hugo de Naranja]

Finished the card with two exact picks down to the scorecards in the Main Event

[boss_of_um]

That worked out quite well!

5/20/18 12:24am	$40.00	$80.00	Open	2 Team Parlay
				Win	5/19/18 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1003 Maia / Usman goes 5 round distance +200* vs Fight won’t go 5 round distance

Does this one look familiar Hugo?

5/20/18 12:03am	$42.50	$205.63	$248.13	Win	2 Team Parlay
					Win	5/19/18 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1101 Alexa Grasso/Tatiana Suarez Under 2½ +230*
	5/20/18 12:19am				Win	5/19/18 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demian Maia/Kamaru Usman Over 2½ -130*

[the1yankee]

Fuckin oosman, absoulutley useless, can't beat an old man in dominant finish fashion...should be deported to his shithole...sorry but damian took you to r5.....you should be back in ebola country...he's like a fu**in grand
shit main event...

you didn't break shit you niggerian dick!

+++++1

[Hugo de Naranja]

That worked out quite well!

5/20/18 12:24am	$40.00	$80.00	Open	2 Team Parlay
				Win	5/19/18 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1003 Maia / Usman goes 5 round distance +200* vs Fight won’t go 5 round distance

Does this one look familiar Hugo?

5/20/18 12:03am	$42.50	$205.63	$248.13	Win	2 Team Parlay
					Win	5/19/18 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1101 Alexa Grasso/Tatiana Suarez Under 2½ +230*
	5/20/18 12:19am				Win	5/19/18 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demian Maia/Kamaru Usman Over 2½ -130*

Sure does. How much did you make tonight?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Cashed this event for like 25u profit. Up to #3 and #7 for my two Toutmaster entries. The big year continues.

[Shagdogy]

Cashed this event for like 25u profit. Up to #3 and #7 for my two Toutmaster entries. The big year continues.

Sitting right between you at #6 in ToutMaster. Looks like we had same exact picks last night. Really surprised a lot of others at the top had poor nights. Seemed like a pretty straightforward card to pick winners.

It’s nice to have two entries up there. A lot of the time it’s only one or two fights im really not sure on.

As for betting the card, I only pulled a small win thanks to Silva, and my own dumbass self for playing Rivas fight exactly against my own opinion. I deserve that. Sucks though because those two things sucked 6u right out of my night. Shame.

[turbozed]

Cashed this event for like 25u profit. Up to #3 and #7 for my two Toutmaster entries. The big year continues.

Awesome 1st half of the year Hugo. There's been quite a few matchups where you've swayed me in one direction or another while I was on the fence (towards Prazeres this card for example), so thanks for the hard work!

[turbozed]

Sitting right between you at #6 in ToutMaster. Looks like we had same exact picks last night. Really surprised a lot of others at the top had poor nights. Seemed like a pretty straightforward card to pick winners.

It’s nice to have two entries up there. A lot of the time it’s only one or two fights im really not sure on.

As for betting the card, I only pulled a small win thanks to Silva, and my own dumbass self for playing Rivas fight exactly against my own opinion. I deserve that. Sucks though because those two things sucked 6u right out of my night. Shame.

I did the same thing by playing Kondo Decision for small when I clearly should've just swerved.

Do you think joining ToutMaster has improved your analysis or understanding of the cards? I'm always looking for ways to get better and more disciplined so let me know if you think it works and how.

[JIBBBY]

Well this is how I'm playing it fellas.. Found myself hedging a bit again with this event.. See what sticks???

Most bets $100 as usual, some hedges for $50.. No load up plays on this card.. Just trying to grind out another win here..

Good luck everyone, let's make that money!!!

1) Silva KO and RND 1 finish prop
2) Saenz Straight
3) Barzola by Dec
4) Benitez by Dec/ hedged Humberto sub
5) Kondo by Dec/hedged Botelho KO
6) Patoja Dec/hedged Moreno sub
7) Prazeres by Dec
8) Luque ITD/hedged Laprise Straight
9) Macedo Dec/hedged Lee sub
10) Rivas by sub/hedge Cannnetti ITD
11) Reyes ITD/hedge Cannonier KO
12) Saurez by Sub/hedged Grasso straight
13) Maia Sub/hedged Usman by Dec

Started off a little hit and miss with the first couple fights then got on a roll and never looked back.. Hit some good props and hedges mid way thru the card that put me up big..

I'll try to get around to copy and pasting all my betting tickets later on.. From the looks of it now I walked away with almost $1000 profit for this event on dimes.. I'll take that every time.....

Next....

PS.. Bad match up again for my boy Demian Maia.. Wrestlers are his kriptonite.. He's a survivor and made it the 5 rounds though as I thought he might..

[Demonata]

I made $0

[Shagdogy]

I did the same thing by playing Kondo Decision for small when I clearly should've just swerved.

Do you think joining ToutMaster has improved your analysis or understanding of the cards? I'm always looking for ways to get better and more disciplined so let me know if you think it works and how.

I don’t know if it has directly improved my analysis, but it helps to push me to try to get to ALL the fights on a card. It has probably helped my betting in that way, by leaving no stone unturned. Also just the sheer amount of fight exposure has to help. I watch a LOT of fights. Don’t have that photographic memory like Hugo though, so I have a google doc for every event going back almost 2 years now. I need to back those up...

[Shagdogy]

^ Also, I do think that tracking all bet types and looking at where I’m successful and where I’m not has helped a lot. I’ve made tweaks to my betting based on those broken down results and even though my bet picks are a lower percentage this year than last, I’m easily performing better.

[Shagdogy]

Barzola -190, win 1u
Botelho -165, win1u
Prazeres +145, win 1u
Benitez + Silva Parlay -113, win 1.25u
Benitez + Reyes parlay +120, risk 1u
Pantoja + Benitez u2.5 parlay +243, win 1.5u

May add some more. Been busy out of town with a family wedding. If anyone sees any obvious value I’m missing tip me off. My mind has been elsewhere for this one.

Added:
Grasso/Suarez won’t go to decision +175, win 1u
Cannetti/Rivas won’t go to decision -105, win 1u
Benitez sub +222, risk 1u
Rivas sub + Pantoja sub parlay, +3090, risk .25u

I definitely meant to bet that Benitez sub line to WIN 1u. Damn. More than I wanted on that.

Super SQUARE parlay added (stupid I know):
Luque + Suarez + Usman parlay -120, win 1u

Screwed up the copy/paste on my last post so I'm just re-upping this for my own record keeping. On that note:
Added Rivas -160, 1.6u

Card Total: 7-5, +2.39u

YTD: 64-56, +21.39u

Event Total: 9-5

[JIBBBY]

Card Total: 7-5, +2.39u

YTD: 64-56, +21.39u

Event Total: 9-5

Nice win Shag... I like to see the regulars including myself all winning these events!! .. Keep up the solid play bud..

[Sanity Check]

BTW to help put things into persepctive how many % of bankroll is 1 unit usually?

I'm all about that n00b question lyfe.

Hedge managers are happy if they achieve 5% ROI per year.

How badly are those poor guys being buried by your numbers?

[JIBBBY]

BTW to help put things into persepctive how many % of bankroll is 1 unit usually?

I'm all about that n00b question lyfe.

Hedge managers are happy if they achieve 5% ROI per year.

How badly are those poor guys being buried by your numbers?

1% of bank roll is 1 unit.. I'd just rather post real money bets myself.. Never used or will use that damn unit system crap.. ..

[turbozed]

BTW to help put things into persepctive how many % of bankroll is 1 unit usually?

I'm all about that n00b question lyfe.

Hedge managers are happy if they achieve 5% ROI per year.

How badly are those poor guys being buried by your numbers?

My unit size is 2.5% of my bankroll and my ROI (per every dollar wagered) is 12% last year and 14% this year.

From people I talked to that know professional sports bettors, even 5% ROI is a very good figure over the long run.

Tracking the numbers helps because it really puts into perspective how important line prices are. If I bet the same exact bets but got odds that were 15% worse than what I got, I'd be negative. It's a reason why a lot of bettors can beat 5 cent lines but can't beat 10 cent lines. That extra 5 cent matters a lot.

[JIBBBY]

Hugo where you at? How did you fair with this event? Seemed like you did well again from some of your posts during this event live..

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 129: Maia vs. Usman Picks:
Felipe Silva Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Frankie Saenz Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Enrique Barzola Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Gabriel Benitez Round 2 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Poliana Botelho Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Alexandre Pantoja Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Michel Prazeres Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Vicente Luque Round 1 Submission (D’arce Choke)
Andrea Lee Round 3 Submission (Armbar)
Diego Rivas Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Dominick Reyes Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Tatiana Suarez Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Kamaru Usman Unanimous Decision (50-45, 49-46 x2)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 129: Maia vs. Usman

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Silva vs. Puelles
Silva+Puelles Under 1.5 (+105) -1u
Silva Round 1 (+165) -1u

Result: Claudio Puelles Round 3 Submission (Kneebar)
Fight: -2u
Card: -2u

Fight #2: Saenz vs. Briones
Briones (+275) -1u

Result: Frankie Saenz Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 30-26)
Fight: -1u
Card: -3u

Fight #3: Barzola vs. Davis
Barzola Decision (+105) +2.1u
Barzola Submission (+626) -.5u

Result: Enrique Barzola Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-26 x2)
Fight: +1.6u
Card: -1.4u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #4: Benitez vs. Bandenay
Benitez -3.5 (+110) +2.2u
Benitez Submission (+220) -1u

Result: Gabriel Benitez Round 1 KO (Slam and Punches)
Fight: +1.2u
Card: -0.2u

Fight #5: Botelho vs. Kondo
Botelho KO/TKO (+340) +3.4u

Result: Poliana Botelho Round 1 TKO (Body Kick and Punches)
Fight: +3.4u
Card: +3.2u

Fight #6: Pantoja vs. Moreno
Pantoja (-115) +2u
Pantoja ITD (+305) -1u
Pantoja Submission (+450) -.5u

Hedge:
Moreno ITD (+482) -.75u

Result: Alexandre Pantoja Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-26 x2)
Fight: -0.25u
Card: +2.95u

Fight #7: Prazeres vs. Cummings
Prazeres (+125) +5u
Prazeres Decision (+265) +2.65u
Prazeres Scorecards = No Action (+300) +0u

Result: Michel Prazeres Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Fight: +7.65u
Card: +10.6u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Luque vs. Laprise
Luque ITD (+110) +2.75u
Luque -3.5 (+120) +1.2u

Hedge:
Laprise Decision (+350) -1u

Added:
Luque Decision (+342) -1u

Result: Vicente Luque Round 1 KO (Punches)
Fight: +1.95u
Card: +12.55u

Fight #9: Lee (DEBUT) vs. Macedo
Lee Submission (+490) -2u

Hedge:
Macedo Scorecards = No Action (+347) +0u

Added:
Lee KO/TKO (+423) -1u

Result: Andrea Lee Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Fight: -3u
Card: +9.55u

Fight #10: Rivas vs. Cannetti
Rivas+Cannetti Won’t Go Distance (+100) -2.5u
Rivas Submission (+484) -.5u

Hedge:
Cannetti Round 1 (+575) -.5u

Result: Guido Cannetti Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Fight: -3.5u
Card: +6.05u

Fight #11: Reyes vs. Cannonier
Reyes Round 1 (+275) +2.75u

Hedge:
Cannonier KO/TKO (+700) -.5u

Added:
Reyes KO/TKO (+220) +2.2u

Result: Dominick Reyes Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Fight: +4.45u
Card: +10.5u

Fight #12: Suarez vs. Grasso
Suarez ITD (+200) +2u

Added:
Suarez ITD (+225) +2.25u

Result: Tatiana Suarez Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Fight: +4.25u
Card: +14.75u

Fight #13: Usman vs. Maia
Usman Unanimous Decision (+300) +3u

Hedge(s):
Maia ITD (+686) -1u
Maia Round 1 (+1700) -.5u

Result: Kamaru Usman Unanimous Decision (50-45, 49-46 x2)
Fight: +1.5u
Card: +16.25u

Straight Parlays:
Rivas/Usman (+107) -1u
Barzola/Lee (+109) +1.09u
Lee/Reyes (+109) +1.09u
Silva+Puelles WGD/Barzola+Davis GD (+130) +1.95u
Barzola/Benitez (+145) +1.45u
Barzola+Davis GD/Prazeres+Cummings GD (+153) +1.53u
Benitez/Botelho/Pantoja (+372) +1.86u

Added:
Rivas/Reyes (+128) -1u
Suarez+Grasso Under 2.5/Usman+Maia Over 2.5 (+494) +2.47u

Results: See Above
Fights: +9.44u
Card: +25.69u

Prop Parlays:
Silva KO/Briones +3.5/Barzola -3.5 (+795) -.25u
Prazeres/Luque -3.5/Lee -3.5 (+833) +2.0825u

Results: See Above
Fights: +1.8325u
Cards: +27.5225u

Live Betting:
Reyes (+130) -1u
Usman+Maia Goes Distance (+150) +1.5u
Moreno (+1000) -.5u

Results: See Above
Fights: +0u
Cards: +27.5225u

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+167) -1.25u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+422) -.5u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+1188) -.25u

FOTN: Lee+Macedo
POTN: Benitez, Puelles
Fastest Submission: Suarez R1 (2:44)
Fastest KO: Botelho R1 (0:33)
Decisions: 7
Results: See Above
Fights: -2u
Final Card Total = +25.5225u

Multi-Event Parlays:
None

Added:
Suarez -3.5/Thompson (+130) 3.5u

Results: Suarez Wins ITD
Fights: +0u
Multi-Event Parlays = +0u, Carries Over to UFC Fight Night 130

[Hugo de Naranja]

Another big night for me. 11/13 on Picks with 3 Exact Picks. Won on Barzola Decision, Benitez -3.5, Botelho KO/TKO, Prazeres ML + Decision, Luque -3.5 + ITD, Reyes KO/TKO + R1, Suarez ITD, Usman UD, Straight Parlays, and Prop Parlays. Lost on Silva Under 1.5 + R1, Briones ML, Lee Sub + KO/TKO, Rivas+Cannetti Won't Go Distance, and Full Card Props. Hoping to keep this momentum going into the Summer months. Cheers boys!

[Thrilla]

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...

[JIBBBY]

Another big night for me. 11/13 on Picks with 3 Exact Picks. Won on Barzola Decision, Benitez -3.5, Botelho KO/TKO, Prazeres ML + Decision, Luque -3.5 + ITD, Reyes KO/TKO + R1, Suarez ITD, Usman UD, Straight Parlays, and Prop Parlays. Lost on Silva Under 1.5 + R1, Briones ML, Lee Sub + KO/TKO, Rivas+Cannetti Won't Go Distance, and Full Card Props. Hoping to keep this momentum going into the Summer months. Cheers boys!

I'm putting in the time again and capping my ass off in MMA and it's starting to pay off... Prop king isn't back yet that's you but the hedge king is coming on now..

I'm ready for the next event.. Let's do this..

The Juggernaut is a distant memory but I still got it in me.. . Need some healthy competition to drive me to greatness again..