UFC on FOX: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 (January 27, 2018)

[firekillex]

If Jacare could learn to effectively take down people like Demian Maia did over his MMA growing years he'd be in title contention.. Jacare is a beast but at this level he is forced to stand and fight and that's not his strength.. I think Brunson can keep this fight standing...

The question is - Is Brunson's stand up and boxing good enough to take out Jacare? I don't think Jacare is taking down Brunson and holding him there unless he rocks him standing first anyways...

what are you talking about jibby..... jacare has literally taken down his opponent in 8/9 UFC fights lol
the only reason he didnt take down Yushin Okami is because he starched him on the feet

Jacare is a beast, just getting old so hes starting to decline a bit... Close fight i could see either guy winning tbh

[TPowell]

Well this fight is a 5 rounder... I agree it probably doesn't go the distance... I'd say if you take Brunson take him by KO and not ITD.. I HIGHLY doubt Jacare whom is a submission master gets tapped out by Brunson...

1005 Brunson wins inside distance

+170

Not a big difference though

1037 Brunson wins by TKO/KO

+173

For 3 cents though? ALWAYS take ITD

[Shagdogy]

Anyone else get annoyed as I do with fightpass when trying to cap these fights. Going back and looking through the women's fights takes FOREVER since there's no fast forward function or even a preview thumbnail when you scrub along the progress bar. It's awful. Best you can do is just skip around blindly. And all of these fights go the distance. So much time wasted.

[JIBBBY]

For 3 cents though? ALWAYS take ITD

TPow yes why not.... Odds makers probably nailed that right though. ..

[TPowell]

TPow yes why not.... Odds makers probably nailed that right though. ..

3 cents just isn't really worth it to me. Especially if you are gonna make a decent sized play. Why not cover the oddball scenario where Brunson drops him and gets a choke or something?

[TPowell]

So I'm in on Kim by DEC +440 for around 0.5 units and Kim ML at +255 for about the same. I worry that Kim may not make 125 as she has never made it before in her career. If she doesn't, we may get even more value plus I want to see her on the scale.

[JIBBBY]

what are you talking about jibby..... jacare has literally taken down his opponent in 8/9 UFC fights lol
the only reason he didnt take down Yushin Okami is because he starched him on the feet

Jacare is a beast, just getting old so hes starting to decline a bit... Close fight i could see either guy winning tbh

At the UFC top levels it's very hard to take down fighters that don't want to be taken down.. Jacare couldn't take down Robert Whittiker and got knocked out for his troubles... Brunson arguably has as good a take down defense as Robert Whittiker... That's all I'm getting at with this scrap coming up...

I think Maia has better take downs then Jacare also.. That's another point I was getting at..

[Thor4140]

At the UFC top levels it's very hard to take down fighters that don't want to be taken down.. Jacare couldn't take down Robert Whittiker and got knocked out for his troubles... Brunson arguably has as good a take down defense as Robert Whittiker... That's all I'm getting at with this scrap coming up...

I think Maia has better take downs then Jacare also.. That's another point I was getting at..

A Olympic wrestler had a helluva time taking down Whittaker Jibbers

[Hugo de Naranja]

A Olympic wrestler had a helluva time taking down Whittaker Jibbers

He also tried to wrestle Brunson and never took him down despite Brunson getting three TDs on him.

[firekillex]

imo jacare would starch demian maia

but jacare getting old now... gonna be a tough fight against brunson even though brunson is very wild sometimes, in the embedded he talks about slowing down and taking less chances , so he understands his losses have been because he just rushes in chin up

[Shagdogy]

Came here for this. Found it. I'm with you.

What do you think about Borella? Not as big a dog but may have the grappling chops to ground Chook for long periods of time.

Just rewatched tape. I don't think Borella will get into clinch easily with Chook and I expect Chook to stick and move effectively, landing a lot of jabs and leg kicks. Even if Borella does get into the clinch she usually works bodylocks with trips and Chook's defense there is good. She gets taken down usually but doubles against the cage when opponents get deep on her hips, but that's not Borella's TD game. I am solidly in favor of Chook and think there's some value there.

[PaperTrail07]

That OVER 1.5 IS GOLD

I kinda like Pepey. Sure he's not the most skilled or technical fighter, but he always brings action and fights as hard as he's capable of fighting. He's been in a lot of fun fights.

[Teem]

Having trouble with a couple toss ups...

I can't decide on picking Kish or Kim. Kim has a massive 8-inch reach advantage. But both seem to be limited skill wise everywhere. I know Kish is stronger and will try to keep it in the clinch but I'm thinking Kim might be a nice dog play with that reach advantage.

I'm also having trouble picking between Dober and Camacho. Both take a lot of damage. Dober has experience but right now leaning towards Camacho. I think he may light up Dober in the stand up.

Any insight on these picks would be appreciated!

[PaperTrail07]

The Dober Camacho is a tough call for sure...lean dober but odds reflect that position...

Having trouble with a couple toss ups...

I can't decide on picking Kish or Kim. Kim has a massive 8-inch reach advantage. But both seem to be limited skill wise everywhere. I know Kish is stronger and will try to keep it in the clinch but I'm thinking Kim might be a nice dog play with that reach advantage.

I'm also having trouble picking between Dober and Camacho. Both take a lot of damage. Dober has experience but right now leaning towards Camacho. I think he may light up Dober in the stand up.

Any insight on these picks would be appreciated!

[Shagdogy]

Having trouble with a couple toss ups...

I can't decide on picking Kish or Kim. Kim has a massive 8-inch reach advantage. But both seem to be limited skill wise everywhere. I know Kish is stronger and will try to keep it in the clinch but I'm thinking Kim might be a nice dog play with that reach advantage.

I'm also having trouble picking between Dober and Camacho. Both take a lot of damage. Dober has experience but right now leaning towards Camacho. I think he may light up Dober in the stand up.

Any insight on these picks would be appreciated!

If it's that tough to pick between Kim and Kish, then at +250 you have to take Kim, right?

[Shagdogy]

Turbo - I just finished capping all 3 chick fights. I don't know how you do it. My brain is freakin mush. Doesn't help that I finished off by watching tape on Lima. Wanted to claw my eyes out. So boring.

I feel like I have solid reasons to bet Kim and maybe Chook. The Markos/Lima fight I need to defer to you on... I just couldn't give that fight a fair shake cause My brain was so washed out from all the chick fights in a row. Let me know what you think of that one. I think I lean Markos but prob not enough to play her.

[JIBBBY]

imo jacare would starch demian maia

but jacare getting old now... gonna be a tough fight against brunson even though brunson is very wild sometimes, in the embedded he talks about slowing down and taking less chances , so he understands his losses have been because he just rushes in chin up

Brunson does rush in with his chin up at times and that could be a mistake against Jacara as he does have knock out power... Brunson better be careful...

[firekillex]

Brunson does rush in with his chin up at times and that could be a mistake against Jacara as he does have knock out power... Brunson better be careful...

thats how he lost the first time against jacare i cant see him doing that again tbh

[JIBBBY]

thats how he lost the first time against jacare i cant see him doing that again tbh

Yup... He'll certainly focus on not making that same mistake again I'm sure.. Rematch fights typically don't go the same way as the first ones go.. Adjustments are usually made by the losing fighter...

Still doesn't mean Brunson can avoid this though .. Like I said Brunson will need to fight more defensive and watch out for those looping Jacare hay makers or he will be slept again...

[Shagdogy]

Man... Bobby Green or Erik Koch. Who is more trustworthy at this point? Really tough to call IMO. Probably a fight to avoid betting. Anyone got a lean?

[PaperTrail07]

Depends what green shows up....guy is not even worried about winning...just puts on a show....def more talented here...

Man... Bobby Green or Erik Koch. Who is more trustworthy at this point? Really tough to call IMO. Probably a fight to avoid betting. Anyone got a lean?

[Thor4140]

He also tried to wrestle Brunson and never took him down despite Brunson getting three TDs on him.

I think you could toss that fight right out. Yoel was just getting his feet wet in the UFC. He was rarely using his wrestling. I remember betting on Yoel that fight and asking myself "this guy is an Olympic wrestler?" His MMA wrestling is far superior now to what it was back than. Just my opinion.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yup... He'll certainly focus on not making that same mistake again I'm sure.. Rematch fights typically don't go the same way as the first ones go.. Adjustments are usually made by the losing fighter...

Still doesn't mean Brunson can avoid this though .. Like I said Brunson will need to fight more defensive and watch out for those looping Jacare hay makers or he will be slept again...

I disagree. Even though I’m picking Brunson here, the general trend I’ve seen is that the majority of rematches have the same winner as the first fight, often in a more dominant fashion.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Man... Bobby Green or Erik Koch. Who is more trustworthy at this point? Really tough to call IMO. Probably a fight to avoid betting. Anyone got a lean?

I think this matchup favors Koch. Green’s offensive wrestling is overrated and I think Koch is the more powerfully and dynamic striker though he is a chronic choker (having all 4 of his UFC losses when he was at least a -200 favorite)

[Shagdogy]

I think this matchup favors Koch. Green’s offensive wrestling is overrated and I think Koch is the more powerfully and dynamic striker though he is a chronic choker (having all 4 of his UFC losses when he was at least a -200 favorite)

I agree. Koch fights real long too and Green had trouble with length of Mago. Koch's chin is a big question mark too though... I know I won't be betting Green. Not sure if I'll stab at Koch.

[firekillex]

rematches all depend the length inbetween the first fight imo... since the first fight Jacare has improved a ton but hes aging and has been fighting for a long time, his skills have raised but i think his athletic skills and chin are starting to go downhill , i think brunson is in his prime and his skills have raised.. so this is a very close fight , id take the dog money in this

[TPowell]

Jacare is physically so different that I doubt he could do much striking even if Brunson comes out sloppy to be honest. Wish I would have acted sooner but I'll have something on Brunson for sure.

[TPowell]

Turbo - I just finished capping all 3 chick fights. I don't know how you do it. My brain is freakin mush. Doesn't help that I finished off by watching tape on Lima. Wanted to claw my eyes out. So boring.

I feel like I have solid reasons to bet Kim and maybe Chook. The Markos/Lima fight I need to defer to you on... I just couldn't give that fight a fair shake cause My brain was so washed out from all the chick fights in a row. Let me know what you think of that one. I think I lean Markos but prob not enough to play her.

I can't see a good angle on the Chook fight. Striker vs grappler to the nth degree. I definitely like Kim at the big price and the Lima/Markos fight should go the distance easily IMO

[TPowell]

DK is tough this week. I really don't like a ton of these pickem fights (I lean towards Green, Bermudez, and Pichel but the fights are so close) and I really think the 3 big guy faves win and probably finish (definitely in Price's case). Pick a lineup please

Bektic
Price
Bermudez
Pichel
Brunson
Kim

Gillespie
Bektic
Price
Brunson
Camacho
Kim

Gillespie
Price
Dober
Brunson
Borella
Kim

[Shagdogy]

I can't see a good angle on the Chook fight. Striker vs grappler to the nth degree. I definitely like Kim at the big price and the Lima/Markos fight should go the distance easily IMO

I just don't think Borella closes the distance easily and I think Chook can fight off a few TDs.

[TPowell]

I just don't think Borella closes the distance easily and I think Chook can fight off a few TDs.

Idk, her jitz is pretty solid and Chook's ground game is too sketchy for me to lay money on. On the other hand, Borella will easily lose in the striking sequences. Pass from me but I took a flyer on her on one DK team

[Hugo de Naranja]

rematches all depend the length inbetween the first fight imo... since the first fight Jacare has improved a ton but hes aging and has been fighting for a long time, his skills have raised but i think his athletic skills and chin are starting to go downhill , i think brunson is in his prime and his skills have raised.. so this is a very close fight , id take the dog money in this

Good point. A lot of what I'm thinking of are instant rematches i.e. Holloway/Aldo 2 or Edgar/Penn 2.

[Hugo de Naranja]

DK is tough this week. I really don't like a ton of these pickem fights (I lean towards Green, Bermudez, and Pichel but the fights are so close) and I really think the 3 big guy faves win and probably finish (definitely in Price's case). Pick a lineup please

Bektic
Price
Bermudez
Pichel
Brunson
Kim

Gillespie
Bektic
Price
Brunson
Camacho
Kim

Gillespie
Price
Dober
Brunson
Borella
Kim

I like the first one the most. Some live dogs and several good chances at a finish.

[TPowell]

I like the first one the most. Some live dogs and several good chances at a finish.

I think I'm leaning towards the 2nd one. I didn't think I'd be able to fit Gillespie/Bektic/Price on 1 team but the fact that I love Kim's cheap price and Brunson for his 1st round finish potential (and winning outright), that left me with Camacho who COULD at least land quite a few SS's in a loss.

[Shagdogy]

Idk, her jitz is pretty solid and Chook's ground game is too sketchy for me to lay money on. On the other hand, Borella will easily lose in the striking sequences. Pass from me but I took a flyer on her on one DK team

Chook does ok to defend on the ground but she doesn't have any offense there or urgency to get up. Costs her rounds. But... Borella has to get it there and I have serious doubts if she will be able to. Chook moves well and keeps good range. I think she will be able to play matador for much of this fight.