UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Poirier (November 11, 2017)

[JIBBBY]

Pettis hasn't had a KO/TKO win since Donald Cerrone in 2013. He's been more of a guard submission grappler in recent finishes (Oliveira, Melendez, Henderson)

True Hugo... I just remember Michael Johnson dropping Porrier not to long ago.... Showtime Pettis is a real striking threat to Porriers chin I think.. We'll see, tough fight to call for sure..

[JerseyRobby]

Pettis hasn't had a KO/TKO win since Donald Cerrone in 2013. He's been more of a guard submission grappler in recent finishes (Oliveira, Melendez, Henderson)

Watch the fights though most of the subs come after demoralizing or even rocking his opponent on their feet. Pettis jumps on subs after opponents go to the ground.

[JIBBBY]

He did win his last fight as an underdog with a vintage performance against Koch though

Erik Koch has lost 4 of 6 fights and just isn't that good.. He does resemble Lauzon at 5'10" though and yes Guida did win that fight by UN...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Erik-Koch-23390

You make a good point Hugo and maybe I shouldn't write off Guida in this match up after all... Maybe Guida can wrestle and ground the much taller Lauzon at 5'10 just like he did to Kock? http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Joe-Lauzon-4923

I will say Lauzon might be a little better then Kock though.. Guida by decision is a real possibility for sure... I stand corrected...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Watch the fights though most of the subs come after demoralizing or even rocking his opponent on their feet. Pettis jumps on subs after opponents go to the ground.

That is a fair point. Hurt Henderson with body kicks, Knocked Oliveira Down earlier in the fight, stunned Melendez with a combination.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Erik Koch has lost 4 of 6 fights and just isn't that good.. He does resemble Lauzon at 5'10" though and yes Guida did win that fight by UN...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Erik-Koch-23390

You make a good point Hugo and maybe I shouldn't write off Guida in this match up after all... Maybe Guida can wrestle and ground the much taller Lauzon at 5'10 just like he did to Kock? http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Joe-Lauzon-4923

I will say Lauzon might be a little better then Kock though.. Guida by decision is a real possibility for sure... I stand corrected...

I'm thinking of playing Lauzon R1 (+500) and live-betting Guida if he survives the early exchanges.

[Demonata]

I was so impressed with clay guida last fight.

[MMANick]

Man, I love Joe, but I think Clay can win with his TD's and suffocating style. Joe seems to slow down come the 2nd half of the fight as well.

[Demonata]

Man, I love Joe, but I think Clay can win with his TD's and suffocating style. Joe seems to slow down come the 2nd half of the fight as well.

Well guida has always been good at takedowns but now his striking has improved as well. Joe i just don't believe in at all.

[JIBBBY]

^^ You guys are talking me into Guida by Dec.. Joe could very well get pressured, grinded on and put on his back for 3 rounds.

[MMANick]

^^ You guys are talking me into Guida by Dec.. Joe could very well get pressured, grinded on and put on his back for 3 rounds.

It's what Clay does. I'm not a big fan of his, but he should be able to keep Joe off balance w/ his striking and when he gets on top, he'll remain there the rest of the round.

[PaperTrail07]

Clay Guida is actually a machine--not a man.....Cant believe its the SAME GUY who used his wrestling to beat the main event fighter----PETTIS....LOL...+240....

It's what Clay does. I'm not a big fan of his, but he should be able to keep Joe off balance w/ his striking and when he gets on top, he'll remain there the rest of the round.

[JIBBBY]

It's what Clay does. I'm not a big fan of his, but he should be able to keep Joe off balance w/ his striking and when he gets on top, he'll remain there the rest of the round.

I'm sure the UN decision prop will even be better if it ever comes out..

1507 Guida wins by 3 round decision

+180

[PaperTrail07]

Dodson is an obvious play....right?

[PaperTrail07]

Ferreria should absolutely destroy MQ as well

[MMANick]

Dodson is an obvious play....right?

I like Dodson. I think he'll be way too fast.

[MMANick]

I'm sure the UN decision prop will even be better if it ever comes out..

1507 Guida wins by 3 round decision

+180

I could see him stopping Joe with GnP in the 3rd. I think that's a good possibility.

[Sanity Check]

I was so impressed with clay guida last fight.

He seems to have improved since moving from jacksonwink to team alpha male.

Joe Lauzon didn't do well against Evan Dunham and Stevie Ray's wrestling based attacks.

Can he cope with Clay Guida's wrestling? Hmmm.

[Shagdogy]

Don't forget Guida was winning a unanimous decision against the undefeated Brian Ortega before one knee very late in the fight changed that. I don't know how, but he has looked good in his recent outings. If Lauzon doesn't finish early, he almost certainly gets outworked by Guida.

[Shagdogy]

Someone tell me what I'm missing in McGee/Strickland? How does Strickland deserve to be -250? I have this much closer to even.

[JIBBBY]

MMA Mania write ups are in -



170 lbs.: Court McGee vs. Sean Strickland
Following his win on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 10, Court McGee (18-6) rattled off three consecutive wins before losses to Costas Philippou and Nick Ring sent him down to Welterweight. The move has produced mix results, as he’s gone 4-3 with a win over Robert Whittaker and, most recently, a narrow loss to Ben Saunders.
At 5’11”, he will give up two inches of height to “Tarzan.”
Sean Strickland (18-2) got off to a red-hot start in his UFC career by submitting Bubba McDaniel, only for a controversial decision win over Luke Barnatt and decisive loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio to grind his momentum to a halt. He picked the pieces back up with three consecutive victories, but got bodied by Kamaru Usman at UFC 210.
He has stopped 12 opponents overall, including eight by form of knockout.
This could be interesting. In Strickland, we have a guy with incredible physical tools who’s regularly undone by his own lack of urgency. He could easily be 3-4 in UFC with better judging ... and it’s entirely his fault. McGee, on the other hand, has almost nothing but urgency. He’s not terribly fast, not terribly strong, not terribly technically adept, but he just never stops. Ordinarily, that would be enough for me to pick him, but Strickland’s just got such massive physical advantages that I can’t do it. Even with Strickland’s rock-bottom fight IQ, he’d be hard-pressed to screw this one up. He jabs McGee up for a decision.
Prediction: Strickland via unanimous decision

205 lbs.: Jake Collier vs. Marcel Fortuna
Jake Collier (10-4) joined UFC with the RFA Middleweight title around his waist, but has struggled to recapture that form, alternating losses and wins in the promotion itself. Most recently, he made the move back to 205 pounds and lost a decision to Devin Clark at UFC on FOX 24.
He will have two inches of height and four inches of reach on “Maozinha.”
Marcel Fortuna (9-2) scored one of the year’s most stunning knockout in February when — despite giving up 48 pounds — he destroyed Anthony Hamilton with one punch. This set up a fight with fellow prospect Jordan Johnson, who edged him in a fight that had the media fairly split.
Though he’s best known for that knockout, he’s primarily a grappler, earning the tap in five of his nine victories.
Collier’s got guts, I’ll give him that, but that’s about the long and short of his skills. While a decent wrestler, he’s slow and mediocre on the feet, not to mention a bit undersized for Light Heavyweight considering his run at Middleweight. Fortuna proved he could handle powerhouse wrestlers in his fight with Johnson and he hits hard enough to crack Collier’s jaw.
This is just a flat-out bad match up for Collier. Fortuna shuts down his takedowns before landing a counter for the finish.
Prediction: Fortuna via first-round technical knockout

185 lbs.: Darren Stewart vs. Karl Roberson
Darren Stewart (7-1) lived up to his moniker during his time on the British scene, scoring four first-round knockouts. His UFC debut against Francimar Barroso ended in bizarre controversy because of an early headbutt and, in the rematch, Stewart struggled with the Brazilian veteran en route to a decision loss.
This will be his Middleweight debut.
Karl Roberson (5-0) didn’t just get a spot on Dana White’s “Tuesday Night Contender Series,” he got the main event slot in Week 3, taking on Legacy veteran Ryan Spann. “Baby K” entered as a slight underdog, but obliterated Spann with elbows in just 15 seconds.
Each of his last three fights has lasted less than two minutes.
Before Stewart’s debut against Barroso, I said that he was clearly not UFC-ready. I turned out to be incorrect, but he’s still incredibly raw and, while dropping to 185 pounds is the right move, I don’t think it’s enough of one to offset his technical issues.
Roberson has legit kickboxing chops; he put Jerome Le Banner down for the count, only to get screwed by the ref. It remains to be seen how he does off of his back and Stewart’s strong enough to throw people around, but the striking edge should give him the fight. He scrambles out of some bad spots early to eventually break Stewart down with strikes.
Prediction: Roberson via second-round technical knockout

135 lbs.: John Dodson vs. Marlon Moraes
An unsuccessful rematch against Demetrious Johnson sent John Dodson (19-8) back to Bantamweight, where he immediately annihilated Manny Gamburyan. He lost a headlining battle with John Lineker by the skin of his teeth, but re-entered the win column with a decision over Eddie Wineland in April.
He owns nine professional wins by knockout, including five in UFC.
Marlon Moraes’ (18-5-1) 13-fight win streak established him as arguably the best Bantamweight outside UFC, featuring multiple highlight-reel finishes and several defenses of the World Series of Fighting (WSOF) title. He finally made the jump to UFC in June, losing a controversial split decision to Raphael Assuncao in Rio.
He stands three inches taller than Dodson at 5’6.”
Dodson’s critical issues are that for all his speed and power, there’s no real nuance to the way he closes the distance and he might as well amputate his right hand to ease the weight cut for all the use he gets out of it. Ordinarily, he’s so fast and hits so hard that he can get away with it, but steadfast foes can run him into heavy strikes.
Moraes is not only blisteringly fast in his own right, he’s an incredibly varied striker with one-shot power in all four limbs. Whether on the counter or on the advance, I expect his length, footwork and superior arsenal to keep him away from Dodson’s sledgehammer left as he pieces up “The Magician” for a decision win.
Prediction: Moraes via unanimous decision

115 lbs.: Tatiana Suarez vs. Viviane Pereira
Tatiana Suarez (4-0) impressed Claudia Gadelha enough to be her first Strawweight pick on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 23 and proved the faith was justified by submitting all subsequent comers. After tapping Amanda Cooper to win the show, she signed on to face fellow wrestler Juliana Lima, only to pull out due to injury.
She medaled twice in the World Wrestling Championships, winning bronze in ’08 and ’10.
A massive height and reach disadvantage wasn’t enough to stop Viviane Pereira (13-0) from defeating former title challenger Valerie Letourneau on short notice in her Octagon debut. She had even greater success against TUF 23 competitor Jamie Moyle, taking home a decision despite weighing in well under the Strawweight limit.
She will give up five inches of height and four inches of reach to Suarez.
This is an excellent fight to show us where Suarez is in her development. She’s a legitimately world-class wrestler, but her striking is essentially empty outside of a naked low kick she uses to pass the time until she shoots. Pereira showed solid counter-wrestling against Moyle and has effective boxing, on paper exactly the sort of style to force Suarez to show new wrinkles.
This is a fight that should mostly boil down to Suarez’s takedown offense against Pereira’s takedown defense. With Suarez’s layoff and underdeveloped striking, I’m leaning toward “Sucuri,” who should sprawl-and-brawl her way to an increasingly one-sided decision.
Prediction: Pereira via unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Sage Northcutt vs. Michel Quinones
The Sage Northcutt Train (8-2) has not enjoyed the sort of smooth ride UFC would prefer. After tapping to an arm triangle from half guard against Bryan Barberena, Northcutt struggled with Enrique Marin before getting dropped and submitted by Mickey Gall.
This will be his first fight in almost 11 months thanks to injuries scrapping a UFC 214 appearance.
Though he lost in his sole Bellator appearance, Michael Quinones (8-2) rattled off five consecutive victories to earn a spot in UFC, including to sub-minute knockouts. After several false starts, he finally got to debut in June against Jared Gordon and suffered the first stoppage loss of his career.
“El Capo” has knocked out five opponents and submitted another.
We’ve seen that Northcutt is not the MMA fighter Dana White presented him as. This fight will determine if he’s at least the striker he’s supposed to be. Quinones is going to give Northcutt the stand up battle he wants.
Northcutt will almost certainly have a size and strength advantage, but he’s yet to look spectacular since his debut thrashing of Francisco Trevino. Quinones has none of the mental hang ups, none of the pressure on him, and won’t have to deal with the sort of suffocating pressure he did against Gordon. I say Quinones knocks Northcutt all the way off the rails, dropping him midway through the fight and locking up a submission.
Prediction: Quinones via second-round submission

115 lbs.: Angela Hill vs. Nina Ansaroff
Consecutive losses to Tecia Torres and Rose Namajunas led UFC to amicably part with Angela Hill (7-3) in the interest of giving her a chance to improve. She did so in a big way, winning and defending the Invicta Strawweight title before putting on a “Fight of the Night” with Jessica Andrade and defeating Ashley Yoder.
She has knocked out three professional opponents.
Nina Ansaroff (7-5) — who had to face Carla Esparza and Barb Honchak in her first three fights — got off to a rocky start in UFC, dropping a clear decision to Juliana Lima and a questionable one to Justine Kish. “The Strina” finally earned her first victory in the promotion in January by choking out Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger.
Four of her six stoppage wins have come by form of knockout.
This is a fight between two of the best strikers the division has to offer, Hill with Muay Thai and Ansaroff with Taekwondo. I expect this to be razor-thin and generate a lot of controversy, but I’ve got Ansaroff by a hair.
Without the threat of a takedown, we ought to be see the best Ansaroff has to offer, while Hill has to deal with the possibility of Ansaroff catching her kicks and working from top position. Further, Ansaroff’s kicking game looks the stronger of the two and she appears to be ever-so-slightly faster. She narrowly outlands Hill in an entertaining back-and-forth.
Prediction: Ansaroff via split decision

[Hugo de Naranja]

Don't forget Guida was winning a unanimous decision against the undefeated Brian Ortega before one knee very late in the fight changed that. I don't know how, but he has looked good in his recent outings. If Lauzon doesn't finish early, he almost certainly gets outworked by Guida.

I think a Guida Live Bet is very much in play here.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm sure the UN decision prop will even be better if it ever comes out..

1507 Guida wins by 3 round decision

+180

I don't think they have UD/SD props for 3-round bouts.

[JerseyRobby]

Poirier is the exact type of fighter Pettis beats if Pettis is at the top of his game. Pettis was flat out beat by World champs or guys who could take him down. Poirier is neither and has been rocked in many fights. If Pettis loses this fight I think we can concede that we will never see that prime fighter again.

Another thing is this is a perfect example of why common opponents can mislead people. Eddie Alvarez beat Pettis but respected and feared his striking game so much he never tried to go toe to toe and mostly attempted to stall on the cage and attempt takedowns. Meanwhile Poirier had moments where he lit up Alvarez but that's because Alvarez was willing to exchange. Some might watch the two fights and conclude Poirier is the better striker.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Poirier is the exact type of fighter Pettis beats if Pettis is at the top of his game. Pettis was flat out beat by World champs or guys who could take him down. Poirier is neither and has been rocked in many fights. If Pettis loses this fight I think we can concede that we will never see that prime fighter again.

Another thing is this is a perfect example of why common opponents can mislead people. Eddie Alvarez beat Pettis but respected and feared his striking game so much he never tried to go toe to toe and mostly attempted to stall on the cage and attempt takedowns. Meanwhile Poirier had moments where he lit up Alvarez but that's because Alvarez was willing to exchange. Some might watch the two fights and conclude Poirier is the better striker.

Do you think Pettis is on the decline?

[JerseyRobby]

Do you think Pettis is on the decline?

Yes slightly but also the competition is better. It's hard to tell how much because all his losses recently were against elite competition. All former champs and Edson Barboza who is a top 3 guy. What's in his favor is I think it's a lack of dedication and not a physical decline. I could see his career having a second wind like a Robbie Lawler or Vitor Belfort if he refocuses. He started extremely young like those two and is only 30 and may have just hit a lull combined with running into a murders' row of opponents (RDA, Holloway, Barboza, Alvarez). And the Alvarez fight I think he would have won if it was a 5 rounder.

Again I think this fight is an indicator of where his career goes. I personally expect him to run off a performance similar to his fight against Charles Oliveira. I expect him to finish either by KO/TKO or a sub that is a by product of his striking. If I had to be exact probably off a vicious body kick that sets up a finish.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Lots of TUF Winners on this card: Suarez, McGee, Ferreira etc

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yes slightly but also the competition is better. It's hard to tell how much because all his losses recently were against elite competition. All former champs and Edson Barboza who is a top 3 guy. What's in his favor is I think it's a lack of dedication and not a physical decline. I could see his career having a second wind like a Robbie Lawler or Vitor Belfort if he refocuses. He started extremely young like those two and is only 30 and may have just hit a lull combined with running into a murders' row of opponents (RDA, Holloway, Barboza, Alvarez). And the Alvarez fight I think he would have won if it was a 5 rounder.

Again I think this fight is an indicator of where his career goes. I personally expect him to run off a performance similar to his fight against Charles Oliveira. I expect him to finish either by KO/TKO or a sub that is a by product of his striking. If I had to be exact probably off a vicious body kick that sets up a finish.

I'll be against you on this one but I think your points are well-sourced and logical.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Interesting fact about Northcutt: he's 3-0 in LW bouts and 0-2 in WW bouts in his 5 UFC fights.

[Shagdogy]

How likely is it that McGee/Strickland ends ITD? I think that fight goes to decision way more often than not. I don't play a lot of O/Us but this one seems sooo likely.

[JIBBBY]

Interesting fact about Northcutt: he's 3-0 in LW bouts and 0-2 in WW bouts in his 5 UFC fights.

So do we take Sage Northcutt by KO or Sub then? Or ITD? http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Sage-Northcutt-130911

Quinones one fight in the UFC and got KO'd...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Michel-Quinones-75509

UFC Fight Night 120 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Ted Constant Convocation Center - Norfolk, Virginia - FS1
Sat 11/11		1801 Michel Quinones		+150	o1½ -155
8:00PM		1802 Sage Northcutt		-170	u1½ +135

I personally think this a set up fight for Sage to shine by match makers... Doesn't mean he'll shine though.. I do like Sage to win though..I think he can win by sub or KO myself...

1809 Northcutt wins inside distance

+157

FS1



Sage
Northcutt
"Super"
vs
Michel
Quinones
"Capo"

USA
Country
UNITED STATES

8-2-0
Record
8-2-0

50%
KO/TKO
63%

38%
SUB
13%

13%
DEC
25%

72 in
Height
70 in

155 lbs
Weight
145 lbs

71 in
Reach
73 in

40 in
Leg Reach
40 in

[Hugo de Naranja]

So do we take Sage Northcutt by KO or Sub then? Or ITD? http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Sage-Northcutt-130911

Quinones one fight in the UFC and got KO'd...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Michel-Quinones-75509

UFC Fight Night 120 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Ted Constant Convocation Center - Norfolk, Virginia - FS1
Sat 11/11		1801 Michel Quinones		+150	o1½ -155
8:00PM		1802 Sage Northcutt		-170	u1½ +135

I personally think this a set up fight for Sage to shine by match makers... Doesn't mean he'll shine though.. I do like Sage to win though..I think he can win by sub or KO myself...

1809 Northcutt wins inside distance

+157

FS1



Sage
Northcutt
"Super"
vs
Michel
Quinones
"Capo"

USA
Country
UNITED STATES

8-2-0
Record
8-2-0

50%
KO/TKO
63%

38%
SUB
13%

13%
DEC
25%

72 in
Height
70 in

155 lbs
Weight
145 lbs

71 in
Reach
73 in

40 in
Leg Reach
40 in

Not sure yet. Not planning to go big on this fight

[JIBBBY]

Not sure yet. Not planning to go big on this fight

Full props aren't out yet either on that fight.

[turbozed]

Really hard to bet Sage as a favorite against any solid fighter until he proves he's learned some grit. Word on the street is that Quinones got the call 3 weeks out to fight Jared Gordon in his debut. Apparently he had to cut down to FW from 180. I don't think he's going to be undersized here at LW.

Quinones seems durable and gritty enough to survive whatever early onslaught Sage has in store. To win, Sage needs to show improvement in both strategy and tactics. Not sure if TAM is the place to give him that so dog or pass for me. I do have a gut feeling that Sage comes out looking good here, which is odd because usually I'd be all in favor of fading him in a spot like this.

[JIBBBY]

^^ Sage does bow out in fights once he gets touched up or grounded usually.. He's explosive early on in fights then typically fades and folds later on if he can't get the finish after the initial adrenaline dump.... Not alot of mental toughness and or grit for sure with Sage..

Sage 1st round finish prop hedged with Quin by KO might be an angle to take in this fight? Quin does win most of his fight by KO and does have KO power.. I really don't trust Sage that much at the UFC level either Turbs..

[PaperTrail07]

Sage is not a fighter...he will need to dominate physically or he is ******...dropping weight-he should be the stronger guy....1st round finish maybe...otherwise no go.....lotta muscle mass-fight gets harder by the min..

^^ Sage does bow out in fights once he gets touched up or grounded usually.. He's explosive early on in fights then typically fades and folds later on if he can't get the finish after the initial adrenaline dump....

Sage 1st round finish prop hedged with Quin by KO might be an angle to take in this fight? Quin does win most of his fight by KO and does have KO power.. I really don't trust Sage that much at the UFC level either Turbs..