I haven't really finished capping the fight but I'm coming around to Duffy. I believe his hands are much faster and his head movement is good enough to avoid Vick's strikes. If the fight hits the mat, it should be with Duffy on top, controlling position. Vick is good at threatening subs and standing up but that just puts him on the feet where im not sure he has an advantage. I think the chins are both good. Cardio should both be good. Power advantage maybe to Vick but usually that's when guys run into his long strikes trying to close the distance. If Duffy has trouble, I think he will see that early and close distance and get all the way inside. I'm starting to see Duffy as playable even straight at -160.
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Cutelaba out. USADA.Comment -
I knew it was too good to be true LOL...always somethingComment -
Vick has to finish this fight to win IMO. Duffy is so technical with his boxing and his ground game is also solid especially for a Euro. I think Vick by SUB is the only option. Drops him and hops on for a sub but VERY low percentage IMOComment -
After watching the weigh-ins, I would love to see Rose fukk Joanna up really bad.Comment -
Best shop I've seen in awhile.
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The OVER on FGTD looks good too. I know their are only 11 fights but I could easily see 7+ fights going there. Outside of the Harris and Paulo fights, I think the rest will go the distance with Gall/Brown being the next biggest challenge. 7/11 pays over +400 so pretty solid payout and even 6/11 pays +150.
I also like the UNDER 1.5 on the subs for the event. I think Gall is very likely to get one but where does the other come from? OSP choking out Anderson? Very doubtful. If OSP drops Anderson it'll be lights out. Zahabi/Ramos? Possible for Ramos I suppose and Oleinik has a shot at one as well but not a high probability. The Vick/Duffy fight will be a definite standup fight but maybe a knockdown and sub? If Gall doesn't sub Brown, this bet is an absolute lock for sure. I just can't see any way this should be getting over +150 on the under 1.5.Comment -
I ended up siding with Duffy too based on just boxing technique and hand speed. -200 was way too wide for my liking though and the price was right around -150. Vick actually probably has more ways to win against a wider variety of opponents. But Vick's attempted like 1 takedown in his UFC career and his sub game is predicated on locking up front chokes against people trying to shoot on him. Both guys have a boxing base and prefer to use it and in that type of fight Duffy has the advantage.
Vick has shown a bit of improvement in defense and in his clinch game, but some of his fundamental problems (slow to retract his jab, naked kick techniques, being there to hit after throwing, etc.) are still there for Duffy to exploit.
Pretty close fight and will be a good one so probably will be a minor play on Duffy.Comment -
I got around to watching Ramos and Zahabi tape (both debuts and a few of their regional fights). Makes sense that Ramos would be the favorite here but I don't think there's much value at -200. I see him mostly winning by submission and probably would've taken a shot at +280, but it's down to like +200 now so I'll hold off.
Ramos's striking is a big issue. It looks good aesthetically. He tries to draw out strikes from his opponent to counter. But his distance management sucks. A lot of his strikes come nowhere close to hitting his opponent. He landed one really great counter against Tanaka but towards the end he was getting outlanded and outstruck by Tanaka, which is a bad sign. Other issues are his lack of volume and that his pocket defense is not very good. He slowed down a lot in the 3rd round of his UFC debut so his cardio might be a problem too.Comment -
fired up for this great card!!
great sports day with full college football slate as well
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I think the striking will be interesting in this one. Both guys like to move forward topressure their opponents but neither one likes to throw first. I think they might look a little bit like opposing magnets. Every time they get close to each other they might just both back off without anything happening. Zahabi had an incredibly willing opponent in Vieira who had no problem being first in the striking and he still threw incredibly low volume to the point that I feel he was 20 seconds away from losing a decision (with impartial non Canadian judges). He is accurate with his counters so if he finds a bit more aggression then than could swing this fight. I also particularly didn't like how often Vieira got in deep on TD attempts. If Zahabi starts dictating the striking it will be interesting to see if Ramos can go to takedowns and switch the fight up. He didn't stand with Khash so he may look for more ground in this fight.Comment -
Im so happy i finally get to watch gsp again tonight.
. I might not even drink... Yeah right Im going to get drunk as hell and probably piss people off and myself off then feel bad and apologize tomorrow 
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There really wasn't a mystery as to why Zahabi didn't throw much early in the fight though. You had his brother in the corner basically shouting at him to keep pressuring Vieira and making him throw so that he would gas out. It was part of their gameplan to be low volume but be just within range to tempt Vieira to throw those loopy hooks. That doesn't explain why Zahabi's volume was so low later in the fight, but maybe they expected Vieira to be more gassed and less dangeorus (their plan didnt work so well in other words).
As far as Ramos' gameplan against Tanaka, that was a bit more baffling. I guess they thought Tanaka's striking was bad enough that Ramos could win without using his grappling techniques. Tanaka is pretty strong on the ground, and seems unchokeable (see the fight before last where Cruz was telling us how Tanaka was going to go out any second and a whole minute goes by with Tanaka in a tight choke). Ramos was able to drop Tanaka with a counter, so it did work out to an extent. Tanaka won that third round clearly being fresher and more active. Now imagine if the first two rounds was a ton of scrambling and grinding grappling. Ramos might have been so out of gas that he might have been finishable.
I don't think Ramos is going to be wary of engaging Zahabi on the ground at all, and I don't think Ramos thinks he's a better striker than Zahabi (I sure hope he doesn't at least), so I think we're going to see him do what he did in his regional fights, which is strike for 30 seconds until jumping in with a 1-2 then level change TD attempt. If he struggles to get them, then Zahabi might be a good live bet. But there's a good chance Ramos is able to lock in a sub after the first successful TD in the 1st.Comment -
There is no live betting on the books with the early prelims...
UFC Fight Pass Early Prelims
Aiemann
Zahabi
vs
Ricardo
Ramos
CANADA
Country
BRAZIL
7-0-0
Record
10-1-0
43%
KO/TKO
20%
43%
SUB
60%
14%
DEC
20%
68 in
Height
69 in
135 lbs
Weight
135 lbs
69 in
Reach
72 in
38 in
Leg Reach
40 in
Ramos by sub probably... Bit tricky as this one might go the distance too and blow up finishing props for either fighter... I don't like betting on this fight that much..Comment -
My first bet for the card
<a href="https://ibb.co/gYqSSb"><img src="https://preview.ibb.co/mZm1nb/Screenshot_2017_11_04_10_54_27.png" alt="Screenshot_2017_11_04_10_54_27" border="0"></a><br /><a target='_blank' href='https://imgbb.com/'>i want to upload my photo</a><br />Last edited by Demonata; 11-04-17, 12:05 PM.Comment -
Everyone have seen this right? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlxV7j5Ye24
He continues where he left of from the prefight interview.Comment
