UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre (November 04, 2017)

[firekillex]

bisping was fighting at 205 and GSP and his coach said he could fight at 155 if needed.... not sure i believe that but Bisping will 100% be larger in reach and im thinking around 10 lbs

i think bisping could win a decision imo, i cant really see any finish in this fight unless Bisping just tags GSP up so much he gets tkod by an accumulation of shots but that would be tough unless he just completely outclasses him.... i still think this will be a close match up though , neither guy has ever really been dominated before other then matt serra vs GSP 1 and luke rockhold vs bisping 1.....

i do think the UFC wants GSP to win because i think GSP vs Mcgregor would be a gigantic fight , GSP does not want any top 185er and he doesnt want tyron woodley at 170 so hes in a tough spot here.... really dont like how theres rumblings of how bad GSP has looked in camp either ...... canadian legend so im rooting for him but i like Bisping in this scrap


btw anybody see masvidal and bisping beefing in the hotel lobby , shittt was hilarious , bisping is a d1ck but hes a hilarious guy imo

[turbozed]

The Half the Battle Guys are basically saying that Brown over Gall is the bet of the year. I wouldn't go that far, but there's a distinct possibility that Gall is just a BJJ brown belt with rudimentary striking jumping into the UFC and skipping the regional circuit altogether to face a pretend regional circuit created by the UFC (Mike Jackson, CM Punk). Going against a legit well rounded and proven fighter in Brown who was Ring of Combat champ and proven to belong in the UFC. There's a strong possibility that Brown will be several levels above Gall.

I'm currently watching Brown tape, but wanted to see if anyone else took a long look at this one.

[Shagdogy]

The Half the Battle Guys are basically saying that Brown over Gall is the bet of the year. I wouldn't go that far, but there's a distinct possibility that Gall is just a BJJ brown belt with rudimentary striking jumping into the UFC and skipping the regional circuit altogether to face a pretend regional circuit created by the UFC (Mike Jackson, CM Punk). Going against a legit well rounded and proven fighter in Brown who was Ring of Combat champ and proven to belong in the UFC. There's a strong possibility that Brown will be several levels above Gall.

I'm currently watching Brown tape, but wanted to see if anyone else took a long look at this one.

I did Turbo, and I'm on Gall. I don't follow Half the Battle, and I'm not too exposed on Gall, only 1.5u, but I actually like him here. It's very tough to know how legit Gall is, but to say Brown is some world beater is just not accurate. Look at his fights against Muhammad and Graves. He gets taken down a bit too easily and on the mat his long limbs are really a detriment to him being able to get to his feet quickly. He has a hard time getting his feet inside and pushing on the hips, he generally has to open his guard for long periods of time and attempts low percentage armbars and triangles that lead to him being passed to side control, and once there his only escape is to turtle. Problem is he gets his back taken here quite easily. I think Gall's grappling advantage might be single largest advantage that exists in this matchup.

I shared you my notes on this one (and the others). Check em out, but I'm on Gall. Mild confidence.

[Shagdogy]

^ also, don't read into belt level. Gracie gyms are noteriously stingy about belt promotions, and if he has transitioned full time to MMA over grappling tournaments he just may not be in the running for promotion there. Doesn't necessarily reflect his skills directly.

[turbozed]

Shagy:

I'm not saying Randy Brown is a world beater, but he's at least a tested regional champion and legit UFC fighter who is on the same level as a Belal Mohammed to give him a fight.

I've watched nothing from Gall to be at all confident that he has a big enough grappling advantage to be now the favorite. I'm not as good at eyeballing grappling skill though, so I'm wondering about specifics. To me he doesn't look at all dominant. His first 0-0 opponent was able to kick him off and create space after getting taken down. CM Punk was able to fight off a RNC for like 30 seconds by just breaking grip. Even Sage Northcutt was able to get up from the bottom multiple times in the first round. Gall's TDs are just head down run forward without any set up. And none of his opponents has employed any recognizable defense. They just kinda let him have it. He seems like he'll have a hard time landing any TDs against a fighter that has any distance management, balance, or defensive wrestling technique which Randy seems to have.

I'm not through with watching Brown tape yet, but right now I tend to agree with the notion that, more likely than not, Gall is a non-UFC caliber fighter that we've been fooled to think is legit. It seems clear that Brown is the better striker, is more tested, and more experienced. To back Gall here would be to rely on his one trick which is the TD/sub route. But we've seen a lot of fighters rack up 1st round subs in regionals only to have less success with that game later on. 3 of his 4 wins are against 0-0 fighters who most of the UFC roster would probably take down and SUB just as fast. I just don't see the logic in betting on an untested, one-dimensional fighter, who has one win over a barely UFC level fighter in Northcutt. And remember Northcutt is the guy that taps to a choke that 99% of UFC fighters would not have tapped to.

[Shagdogy]

^ fair points Turbo. I definitely agree that Gall is untested and his level of competition makes it very hard to know what's real and what's not. I also agree that eyeballing grappling skill between two fighters is more difficult than standup. All true. Thats why my risk on him is only 1.5u (I tier my bets up to 5u as max bet). I think we will know pretty quickly if Gall has a good shot or if he is a fish out of water vs Brown. I usually like it when you and I see fights the same way, but it's not gonna happen every time.

Let me know what you see when you watch more of Brown. The only real question here, IMO, is can Gall take him down? If yes, then he's rightfully favored. No? Then definitely back Brown.

[turbozed]

Alright watched enough Brown tape. He should probably be a -200 favorite. His TD defense should probably be enough to keep Gall off him, probably will be the stronger wrestler too. Gall will likely have an advantage is in pure grappling jiu jitsu (even Brown admits this in an interview) but this is an MMA fight and Brown absolutely outclasses Gall in all areas of this fight except for maybe Gall being on top of Brown on an open mat while fresh. Brown does have some low fight IQ and doesn't listen to his corner well, so I can't make this a huge bet, but think it's still high value.

[turbozed]

^ fair points Turbo. I definitely agree that Gall is untested and his level of competition makes it very hard to know what's real and what's not. I also agree that eyeballing grappling skill between two fighters is more difficult than standup. All true. Thats why my risk on him is only 1.5u (I tier my bets up to 5u as max bet). I think we will know pretty quickly if Gall has a good shot or if he is a fish out of water vs Brown. I usually like it when you and I see fights the same way, but it's not gonna happen every time.

Let me know what you see when you watch more of Brown. The only real question here, IMO, is can Gall take him down? If yes, then he's rightfully favored. No? Then definitely back Brown.

I guess the big question for me that I'm going to ask you and everyone here is what sort of MMA skills has Gall shown that shows that he can beat a legit MMA fighter? Let's replace Gall with a random 35 year old brown belt with decent athleticism, a good submission game, rudimentary striking and wrestling.

Does that brown belt submit the 0-0 fatty Ron Templeton? Yes.
Does he beat 0-0 reporter Mike Jackson? Yes.
Does he beat 0-0 CM Punk? Yes.
Does he beat Sage Northcutt? Sage probably wins more often than not but Sage as a flakey panic grappler is the biggest name someone like that can beat in UFC.

So what sets this guy apart Gall from other one dimensional grapplers? If strong pure grappling advantage is the only point to rely on, then literally there are 100's of potential people in the regionals and BJJ gyms that can beat Randy Brown? This seems unlikely to me.


Gall has been training at Tristar so he may become legit, but Brown's probably grown more as a fighter with his trajectory. Do you really get good smashing 0-0 fighters? Or fighting 3 round tough fights on your UFC debut, and learning from a tough sub loss, or fighting a very competent wrestler in Belal Mohammed and trying hard to stay on the feet for almost 2 rounds then losing steam?

I hope I'm not trying to talk myself into more Randy Brown action so I'm really interested in the best points for Gall.

[JIBBBY]

The Half the Battle Guys are basically saying that Brown over Gall is the bet of the year. I wouldn't go that far, but there's a distinct possibility that Gall is just a BJJ brown belt with rudimentary striking jumping into the UFC and skipping the regional circuit altogether to face a pretend regional circuit created by the UFC (Mike Jackson, CM Punk). Going against a legit well rounded and proven fighter in Brown who was Ring of Combat champ and proven to belong in the UFC. There's a strong possibility that Brown will be several levels above Gall.

I'm currently watching Brown tape, but wanted to see if anyone else took a long look at this one.

Mickey Gal is an undefeated fighter, blew thru Sage Northcut.. Hard to say if he is gonna get out classed by Brooks.. I don't see any clear cut winner in this fight... Gal hasn't looked very raw in the fights I've seen him in either... The straight odds reflect that as well..

UFC 217 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Madison Square Garden - New York, New York - FS1
Sat 11/4		1801 Mickey Gall		-120	o1½ -125
8:00PM		1802 Randy Brown		+100	u1½ +105

Mickey has gotten all his wins by sub so I think you gotta take him by sub if you do take him..

1827 Gall wins by submission

+175

On the flip -

1809 Brown wins inside distance

+234

If you do take Randy Brown it might be a good idea to take him ITD.. He does finish most of his fights..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Randy-Brown-115641


FS1



Randy
Brown
"Rudeboy"
vs
Mickey
Gall

JAMAICA
Country
USA

9-2-0
Record
4-0-0

56%
KO/TKO
0%

33%
SUB
100%

11%
DEC
0%

75 in
Height
74 in

170 lbs
Weight
170 lbs

78 in
Reach
74 in

45 in
Leg Reach
41 in

[turbozed]

Mickey Gal is an undefeated fighter, blew thru Sage Northcut.. Hard to say if he is gonna get out classed by Brooks.. I don't see any clear cut winner in this fight... Gal hasn't looked very raw in the fights I've seen him in either...

Hm, I thought Northcutt was getting his timing and taking over the fight until Gall his that blind looping right hook that floored Sage. I'll have to rewatch that. I was actually surprised someone as inept as Sage on the ground was able to survive the grappling and force the standup twice in the first Rd. This is the Sage that needed a ref to stand up the fight against Cody Pfister (I barely kno 'er).

[PaperTrail07]

Turbo.....If Brown wins...you think it will be under 1.5? JK GL like the over there too....

[turbozed]

Turbo.....If Brown wins...you think it will be under 1.5? JK GL like the over there too....

If I had to pick, I'd go with the over too. Gall's record of fast finishing artificially juiced by his competition.

But right now I'm too obsessed finding data points against Brown and haven't found one that makes sense. There's a whole thread with 10 dudes super confident in Gall and I feel like I'm going crazy.

[JIBBBY]

Hm, I thought Northcutt was getting his timing and taking over the fight until Gall his that blind looping right hook that floored Sage. I'll have to rewatch that. I was actually surprised someone as inept as Sage on the ground was able to survive the grappling and force the standup twice in the first Rd. This is the Sage that needed a ref to stand up the fight against Cody Pfister (I barely kno 'er).

Well Sage does have decent striking as that's his strength. Gal survived that.. Sage had been worked hard on his ground and anti-Jits defense since getting sub'd out by Barberina before facing Mickey Gal.. Mickey Gal still sub'd Sage in 2 rounds.. So I say he clearly beat Sage Northcut and he was never in danger of being finished.. That's saying something Turbs, no?

[JIBBBY]

Seems like Mickey Gal can time his take downs as well.. Not that raw... Tried to post a timed Gal take down gif, not taking though... Gal is a little wild though with this striking...




Randy Brown does have betting striking then Gal though, if the fight stays standing I like Brown...

[turbozed]

Maybe I'll just sleep on it. It's midnight here.

Lol at that punch tho. Gall by no-look falcon punch is the play!

[JIBBBY]

Maybe I'll just sleep on it. It's midnight here.

Lol at that punch tho. Gall by no-look falcon punch is the play!

Were you at Turbs? It's 9:30 AM here in LA, I'm drinking a cup of coffee and just getting my day started.. Lol....

[PaperTrail07]

LOL I love it MMA BABY.....well that's fact....if you like Brown...OVER is a MUST....honestly I am playing it as well pretty LARGE.

If I had to pick, I'd go with the over too. Gall's record of fast finishing artificially juiced by his competition.

But right now I'm too obsessed finding data points against Brown and haven't found one that makes sense. There's a whole thread with 10 dudes super confident in Gall and I feel like I'm going crazy.

[PaperTrail07]

1PM sharp here baby....Lunch just arrived

Were you at Turbs? It's 9:30 AM here in LA, I'm drinking a cup of coffee and just getting my day started.. Lol....

[JIBBBY]

1PM sharp here baby....Lunch just arrived

Veggie omelet cooking now, multi grain toast, few strips of bacon and some fruit and OJ coming up shortly over here.. Got it cooking on my stove now.. Breakfast of champions!!..

[turbozed]

South East Asia at the moment. UFC is played on the local Fox Sports channel for free here on Sunday mornings (numbered, Fox cards, etc.) so I've been saving some dough while not infringing copyright!

[PaperTrail07]

Turbo your a saint! I GUESS I will call off the dogs for now....infringement after infringement....we were on to you From there or just for work ?

South East Asia at the moment. UFC is played on the local Fox Sports channel for free here on Sunday mornings (numbered, Fox cards, etc.) so I've been saving some dough while not infringing copyright!

[Shagdogy]

I guess the big question for me that I'm going to ask you and everyone here is what sort of MMA skills has Gall shown that shows that he can beat a legit MMA fighter? Let's replace Gall with a random 35 year old brown belt with decent athleticism, a good submission game, rudimentary striking and wrestling.

Does that brown belt submit the 0-0 fatty Ron Templeton? Yes.
Does he beat 0-0 reporter Mike Jackson? Yes.
Does he beat 0-0 CM Punk? Yes.
Does he beat Sage Northcutt? Sage probably wins more often than not but Sage as a flakey panic grappler is the biggest name someone like that can beat in UFC.

So what sets this guy apart Gall from other one dimensional grapplers? If strong pure grappling advantage is the only point to rely on, then literally there are 100's of potential people in the regionals and BJJ gyms that can beat Randy Brown? This seems unlikely to me.


Gall has been training at Tristar so he may become legit, but Brown's probably grown more as a fighter with his trajectory. Do you really get good smashing 0-0 fighters? Or fighting 3 round tough fights on your UFC debut, and learning from a tough sub loss, or fighting a very competent wrestler in Belal Mohammed and trying hard to stay on the feet for almost 2 rounds then losing steam?

I hope I'm not trying to talk myself into more Randy Brown action so I'm really interested in the best points for Gall.

I think the best advice we can give each other is to limit our exposure one way or the other because Gall is so unproven.

But I'll try to defend him.
1) in three fights in the UFC he has dropped two opponents. His striking might be ugly but he may have power.

2) Single legs and take downs where you move laterally have been successful against brown. I think Gall can execute this after he gets in on brown.

3) he showed some pretty strong and heavy ground and pound against both Punk and Northcutt.

4) I very much disrespect Brown's bottom game. He gets flattened out on his back too often and his only get up is to turtle which is a very bad plan against Gall. He gets his back taken to easily and Gall has nothing but RNC finishes.

How did I do? Like I said I think the best advice is for both of us to limit our exposure regardless of the side we are on.

[Hugo de Naranja]

The Half the Battle Guys are basically saying that Brown over Gall is the bet of the year. I wouldn't go that far, but there's a distinct possibility that Gall is just a BJJ brown belt with rudimentary striking jumping into the UFC and skipping the regional circuit altogether to face a pretend regional circuit created by the UFC (Mike Jackson, CM Punk). Going against a legit well rounded and proven fighter in Brown who was Ring of Combat champ and proven to belong in the UFC. There's a strong possibility that Brown will be several levels above Gall.

I'm currently watching Brown tape, but wanted to see if anyone else took a long look at this one.

They were pretty excited about this fight. I don't have a great read on this fight and am considering no betting it.

[Hugo de Naranja]

^ also, don't read into belt level. Gracie gyms are noteriously stingy about belt promotions, and if he has transitioned full time to MMA over grappling tournaments he just may not be in the running for promotion there. Doesn't necessarily reflect his skills directly.

Good point. I'll keep this in mind for later bouts.

[PaperTrail07]

So whats the wager

They were pretty excited about this fight. I don't have a great read on this fight and am considering no betting it.

[Shagdogy]

I'm just hopping into Vick vs Duffy, but I remember thinking that Vick finally looked like he had a handle on his range and improved his movement a bit in his last fight. I had always downplayed him before that, but he finally impressed me.

Anyone have good reads on this fight?

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm just hopping into Vick vs Duffy, but I remember thinking that Vick finally looked like he had a handle on his range and improved his movement a bit in his last fight. I had always downplayed him before that, but he finally impressed me.

Anyone have good reads on this fight?

I like Duffy to beat most anyone in a pure striking matchup. I think his standup game will be too much for Vick here and this will be a good test to see where he's at in the LW landscape.

[PaperTrail07]

agree -great matchup-Vick is no easy out and has range---which mad-dog and Jorge DID not have at all....VERY interested in this fight...

I like Duffy to beat most anyone in a pure striking matchup. I think his standup game will be too much for Vick here and this will be a good test to see where he's at in the LW landscape.

[Hugo de Naranja]

agree -great matchup-Vick is no easy out and has range---which mad-dog and Jorge DID not have at all....VERY interested in this fight...

Yeah it's a legit step up for both guys imo

[PaperTrail07]

Ha guy will avoid FERG like the black plague---

https://www.mmafighting.com/2017/11/2/16598200/john-kavanagh-conor-mcgregor-vs-tony-ferguson-is-the-fight-that-makes-sense

[TPowell]

Duffy is a better version of Vick imo. I like him at sub 150

[Hugo de Naranja]

Duffy is a better version of Vick imo. I like him at sub 150

He also has a very underrated submission game imo. I think Duffy is parlayable at current price of (-160).

[Shagdogy]

Duffy is a better version of Vick imo. I like him at sub 150

Is he better on the ground? Gotta do my research but I don't recall thinking so.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Is he better on the ground? Gotta do my research but I don't recall thinking so.

I think he is. Sick Triangle + a Club 'n' Sub approach

[firekillex]

Ha guy will avoid FERG like the black plague---

https://www.mmafighting.com/2017/11/...at-makes-sense

mcgregor has never avoided anybody in his career... he takes the best business decisions for himself .. he owes the fans nothing

guarantee he would fight brock lesnar if he had to , he isnt scared of anybody... hate when people say this about top notch mma fighters.... making a smart business move for your family isnt being "Scared" its being smart