UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Till (October 21, 2017)

**PaperTrail07** · 10-20-17, 10:41 AM

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=nasrat+haqparast&view=detail&mid=32DCB91EC187A8AC6A0332DCB91EC187A8AC6A03&FORM=VIRE

Haqp's last fight.....does not look UFC level to me....(held cruises)

**PaperTrail07** · 10-20-17, 10:48 AM

Emmett has skills and moves quick but -335 seems a TAD much right? penetrate....maybe a pass on this one...

**JIBBBY** · 10-20-17, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Thanks JIBBS...Have Alvey myself by decision simply bc he is not aggressive...

No prob Paper... I think Alvey is gonna pace himself like always and try to counter, so I'm thinking take him losing the decision and maybe hedging him with the KO prop...

That's how I'm probably playing it... Alvey is hard pressed to win decisions period just because of his slow pace always in fights. It's usually either KO or decision bust for Smiling Sam...

1/3 of Emeev fights go to decision, his last fight was a win by decision also.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ramazan-Emeev-72356

1729 Alvey wins by TKO/KO

+380

1711 Emeev wins by 3 round decision

+146

**PaperTrail07** · 10-20-17, 12:17 PM

If you feel lke watching

Video: Watch today's UFC-Gdansk ceremonial weigh-ins live on MMAjunkie at noon E.T.

http://mmajunkie.com/2017/10/video-ufc-gdansk-ceremonial-weigh-ins-live

**PaperTrail07** · 10-20-17, 12:19 PM

Alvey has a big size advantage here IMO.....

**PaperTrail07** · 10-20-17, 12:19 PM

The lotto Ticket

#1) UFC Fighting
Selection : D. Cerrone 10/21/2017 12:45PM - (PST) Money Line -155 for Game

#2) UFC Fighting
Selection : S. Alvey 10/21/2017 9:45AM - (PST) Money Line +140 for Game

#3) UFC Fighting
Selection : A. Fili 10/21/2017 9:30AM - (PST) Money Line -175 for Game

#4) UFC Fighting
Selection : J. Emmett 10/21/2017 8:45AM - (PST) Money Line -335 for Game

#5) UFC Fighting
Selection : M. Held 10/21/2017 11:30AM - (PST) Money Line -410 for Game

Risking : 55.00 To Win : 496.20 USD

**MMANick** · 10-20-17, 12:41 PM

Just threw down on a little LFA action tonight. Parlayed Rodrigues w/ Ifekandu. I don't really see a scenario in which these two lose here. Rodrigues looked great last time out(was a little eye opening when watching), and I see Ifekandu cruising to a victory as well. Thoughts, guys?

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-20-17, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by MMANick

Just threw down on a little LFA action tonight. Parlayed Rodrigues w/ Ifekandu. I don't really see a scenario in which these two lose here. Rodrigues looked great last time out(was a little eye opening when watching), and I see Ifekandu cruising to a victory as well. Thoughts, guys?

I thought that the guy Ifekandu was fighting was the Michael Graves that fought in the UFC but apparently it’s a different guy all together

**PaperTrail07** · 10-20-17, 02:02 PM

Graves had legit skills not sure why the CUT after 2 wins and a draw VS the guy they re using as Till's highlight reel.....

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I thought that the guy Ifekandu was fighting was the Michael Graves that fought in the UFC but apparently it’s a different guy all together

**MMANick** · 10-20-17, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I thought that the guy Ifekandu was fighting was the Michael Graves that fought in the UFC but apparently it’s a different guy all together

I think all of us had to have thought the same thing haha

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-20-17, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Graves had legit skills not sure why the CUT after 2 wins and a draw VS the guy they re using as Till's highlight reel.....

He got convicted an Domestic Violence charge.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-20-17, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by MMANick

I think all of us had to have thought the same thing haha

Best fight odds even has the wrong Odds History for THIS Michael Graves

**PaperTrail07** · 10-20-17, 09:10 PM

and there you have it

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

He got convicted an Domestic Violence charge.

**turbozed** · 10-20-17, 09:50 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

Just watched tape for Bellator and have two very mild leans. Hard to lay much down on these fights since there isn't much tape out there for any of these fighters. I doubt any of you are interested in capping these but, if you are, let me know what your thoughts are:

Blaine/Julaton

- Blaine has been training grappling and striking for 4 years, will be fighting at home, and has KO power in her right hook (possibly only against grandmothers)
- Julaton has been fighting lackluster opponents as well and despite her 34-1 boxing record, does not seem to use it that effectively in MMA. Most of her fights go to decision. She also only has some grappling experience. Seems to have athletic ability but poor MMA IQ. Hasn't fought in 2 years whereas Blaine has been rattling off wins in amateurs during that time.Was hoping for Blaine at +200 odds or better against a boxing champ but that's not happening. I don't see either girl submitting each other. Julaton has no finishing ability on the feet. And Blaine *shouldn't* be able to KO a boxing champ. So I kinda like that over 2.5 rounds.

Quinn/Surin

Surin's 4 opponents have a combined record of 4-6. There's a good chance he's not really ready for this step up in competition. Because of cancellations this fight got bumped to the main card and Surin is from CT where the event is. Surin is a strong wrestler starting off in amateurs in 2013 and has had four pro fights against bottom of the barrel competition in the past 2 years.
Ryan Quinn is a 9 year vet that coaches at ATT, and has a Bellator record of 7-1 losing only to Saad Awad during this time. He's fought mostly at welterweight but fought Awad at 155 last time. There's nothing special about the guy, doesn't seem particularly strong, is competent in grappling. Problem is that he performs well in Bellator but keeps losing in regional fights in between Bellator appearances.Despite Quinn being a Bellator journeyman at best, he's still a few levels above Surin in terms of competiion. Surin is a strong wrestler and may control Quinn for moments in this fight, but doesn't seem like he'll be able to avoid a submission in the span of 15 minutes. There's a video of him getting submitted by a triangle in a grappling match within like 30 seconds. Oh, and Quinn is from CT too, so this won't even be a hometown advantage type of deal for Surin.
This is one of those situations where there's a good likelihood that Quinn just subs Surin quickly. If Surin is legit, the worst it'll be is a close back and forth grappling match which justifies the coinflip odds. Quinn seems like a decent play here.

I know it's the wrong thread (when I posted there was no Bellator thread) but both of these bets cashed. Hope some of you guys looked into them.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-21-17, 01:55 AM

Man feels like EVERYONE is picking Cerrone here.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-21-17, 02:04 AM

UFC Fight Night 118: Cerrone vs. Till Picks:
Josh Emmett Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Aspen Ladd Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Warlley Alves Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Andre Fili Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Ramazan Emeev Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Damian Stasiak Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Adam Wieczorek Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Marcin Held Round 1 Submission (Kneebar)
Oskar Piechota Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Devin Clark Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Darren Till Round 1 TKO (Body Kick and Punches)

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-21-17, 02:04 AM

UFC Fight Night 118: Cerrone vs. Till

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Emmett vs. Arantes
Arantes ITD (+625) 1u
Arantes Submission (+1000) .5u

Fight #2: Ladd (DEBUT) vs. Lansberg
Ladd -3.5 (-110) 1.1u to win 1u
Ladd Decision (+109) .5u
Ladd KO/TKO (+390) .5u
Ladd Round 2 (+750) .25u
Ladd Round 3 (+1300) .25u

Fight #3: Alves vs.Touahri (DEBUT)
Alves Submission (+172) 2.5u

Hedge:
Touahri KO/TKO (+650) .5u

Fight #4: Lobov vs. Fili
Lobov Decision (+245) .5u

Fight #5: Alvey vs. Emeev (DEBUT)
Alvey KO/TKO (+405) .75u

Fight #6: Kelleher vs. Stasiak
Stasiak (+115) 2u
Stasiak Submission (+385) 1u

Fight #7: Held vs. Packalen
Held+Packalen Under 1.5 (+140) 1u
Haqparast (+350) 1u
Haqparast KO/TKO (+600) .5u

Hedge(s):
Held Submission (+140) .5u
Held Round 1 (+225) .5u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Piechota (DEBUT) vs. Wilson
Piechota+Wilson Under 1.5 (+100) 1.5u
Piechota Round 2 (+450) .5u

Fight #9: Blachowicz vs. Clark
Clark Decision (+151) .5u
Clark -3.5 (+160) 1u

Hedge:
Blachowicz Round 1 (+650) .5u

Fight #10: Kowalkiewicz vs. Esquibel (DEBUT)
Parlays

Fight #11: Cerrone vs. Till
Till KO/TKO (+270) 2u
Till Decision (+610) .5u
Till Round 1 (+675) .5u

Hedge(s):
Cerrone ITD (+185) 1u
Cerrone KO/TKO (+400) 1u

Straight Parlays:
Clark/Kowalkiewicz+Esquibel Over 2.5 (+133) 2u
Fili+Lobov Over 2.5/Wieczorek (+137) 1u
Kowalkiewicz+Esquibel Over 2.5/Wieczorek (+142) 2u

Prop Parlays:
Piechota/Kowalkiewicz Decision (+141) 1u
Clark/Kowalkiewicz -3.5/Till (+490) .5u
Haqparast/Piechota+Wilson Under 1.5 (+740) .25u
Emmett Decision/Ladd ITD/Alves+Touahri Under 1.5 (+1306) .25u
Fili Decision/Emeev Decision/Stasiak ITD (+1815) .25u

**turbozed** · 10-21-17, 02:06 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Man feels like EVERYONE is picking Cerrone here.

I'm going to be on Till. Just waiting for a better price. Was +150 for a second there.

On a side note, Alvey is at +150 and I think I'm going to have to fire on that. He didn't look bad at all during early weighins at 169 lbs.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-21-17, 02:08 AM

Originally posted by turbozed

I'm going to be on Till. Just waiting for a better price. Was +150 for a second there.

On a side note, Alvey is at +150 and I think I'm going to have to fire on that. He didn't look bad at all during early weighins at 169 lbs.

He cut all the way from 234 to 169!!? Jk I'm sure you meant 189

**turbozed** · 10-21-17, 02:10 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

UFC Fight Night 118: Cerrone vs. Till

Fight #2: Ladd (DEBUT) vs. Lansberg
Ladd -3.5 (-110) 1.1u to win 1u
Ladd Decision (+109) .5u

I got those exact same numbers. Guess we were both just a tad bit late although its moved more since then. Good luck to our horse.

**turbozed** · 10-21-17, 02:19 AM

Kalikas likes Till by Decision too actually. Which is odd because he opened it at +650

MMA OddsBreaker

https://soundcloud.com/mmaoddsbreaker

Listen to MMA OddsBreaker | SoundCloud is an audio platform that lets you listen to what you love and share the sounds you create.

Also, I'm surprised I hadn't checked out this podcast before. Good to have the reasoning behind how the openers are set.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-21-17, 02:21 AM

Originally posted by turbozed

Kalikas likes Till by Decision too actually. Which is odd because he opened it at +650

https://soundcloud.com/mmaoddsbreaker

Hmm interesting

**turbozed** · 10-21-17, 04:15 AM

You guys probably know that Hamilton / Wieczorek has been rescheduled to the Australia card, but here's the reason why:

Soccer hooligans. Wieczorek supports the rival team to Gdansk.

Anthony Hamilton vs. Adam Wieczorek scratched from UFC-Gdansk, rescheduled for Nov. 18

http://mmajunkie.com/2017/10/anthony-hamilton-vs-adam-wieczorek-scratched-from-ufc-gdansk-rescheduled-for-nov-18

Although their absence from ceremonial weigh-ins was chalked up to "safety concerns," the heavyweight matchup between Anthony Hamilton vs. Adam Wieczorek has now been pulled from Saturday's UFC Fight Night 118 lineup. UFC officials told MMAjunkie that the two fighters…

**Shagdogy** · 10-21-17, 07:12 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Man feels like EVERYONE is picking Cerrone here.

I like Till.

**Shagdogy** · 10-21-17, 07:49 AM

Haven't been able to cap like I'd like lately. Life getting busy... but I got some in, and I'm gonna play off Hugo and Turbo a little here. Thanks guys:

Till +125, 2u
Clark -155, 1.55u
Alvey +135, 3u
Emeev decision +140, 2.14u
Ladd -265, 3u
Piechota -195, 3u
Wilson round 1 +605, .66u

That's prob it for now. I think I still need to update my YTD after the last card. Been a bad run of late. Maybe this little obscure card can give a boost? Good luck everyone.

**turbozed** · 10-21-17, 09:50 AM

I like the Alvey scorecards = no action line. Emeev does have some pop but not a finisher, and especially not against a tough guy like Alvey. If Emeev comes out and blasts Alvey somehow it'll be shocking and I'll start thinking all the Russian fighters are juiced up.

**turbozed** · 10-21-17, 09:52 AM

I've been really misjudging this Till line's movements.

Wanted to bet at +160 but thought it'd get higher. Dropped down to +125 and was concerned. Back up to +150 and didn't fire. Now back down to +135 again.

**PaperTrail07** · 10-21-17, 10:02 AM

How do you not at -150 ? LOL.....Till offers nothing he has not seen before.....lower level..

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Man feels like EVERYONE is picking Cerrone here.

**PaperTrail07** · 10-21-17, 10:03 AM

Till might win round 1....rest will best cowboy....

**PaperTrail07** · 10-21-17, 10:07 AM

[QUOTE=Hugo de Naranja;27292852]UFC Fight Night 118: Cerrone vs. Till Picks:
Josh Emmett Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Aspen Ladd Round 2 TKO (Punches)-Decision
Warlley Alves Round 1 KO
Andre Fili Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Ramazan Emeev Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)--Alvey by Decision
Damian Stasiak Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Adam Wieczorek Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Marcin Held Round 2 Submission (rear naked)
Oskar Piechota Round 3 TKO (Punches)
Devin Clark Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz Round 3 Tko
Cerrone By Decision

I corrected it Hugo JKJK LOL>.....where I stand.....GL today....

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 10-21-17, 10:11 AM

something to think about in the main event is the fighters that seem to give Cerrone trouble are those with an aggressive style that get in your face with pressure. I watched Till's last few fights and this is the polar opposite of his style. He is a counter puncher that waits for his opportunities. Styles make fights and this could be a big factor in the outcome.

Leaning Cerrone

**turbozed** · 10-21-17, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

How do you not at -150 ? LOL.....Till offers nothing he has not seen before.....lower level..

Which southpaw muay thai specialist did he fight that is as accurate and can counter like Till? Not saying Till is a lock or anything but I think Cerrone is as good of a style matchup for Till as anyone in the top 10. Considering the big difference in name value and popularity, I'm thinking there's value in Till based on perception alone. This is usually a good formula when young guys on the rise are facing shopworn fighters on the decline. But I would and do appreciate any insight or observations you can provide.

**GoBlue77** · 10-21-17, 10:27 AM

all i can say is cowboy's manager should be fired for setting up this fight. he may win but this fight makes no sense from cowboy's perspective.

**PaperTrail07** · 10-21-17, 10:39 AM

Cerrone eat people alive that walk backwards....also agree its no lock either way.....but just a hell of a price for a SOLID vet in this spot.....

Originally posted by turbozed

Which southpaw muay thai specialist did he fight that is as accurate and can counter like Till? Not saying Till is a lock or anything but I think Cerrone is as good of a style matchup for Till as anyone in the top 10. Considering the big difference in name value and popularity, I'm thinking there's value in Till based on perception alone. This is usually a good formula when young guys on the rise are facing shopworn fighters on the decline. But I would and do appreciate any insight or observations you can provide.

**PaperTrail07** · 10-21-17, 10:43 AM

I just feel this is deep water for Till and that he should be +190-220ish....not this +130 stuff I am seeing.... in the last 10 years he has only lost to basically guys holding or going for the belt......and were just gonna shoe in Till here not for me..could he pull it off and make his mark...sure.....its MMA...