UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 (July 29, 2017)

[TPowell]

I don't get the JJ love. People talking about this blue belt clown subbing DC is ridicoulous. Only chance he has at a TKO win is a gassed DC and Jones throwing unanswered shots or hellbows from the top which is very unlikely. I liked the NOT Jones by TKO at -600 or so but it is already up to -900. Still a decent parlay piece.

[TPowell]

No way I'm touching Sterling the overrated choker or Barao the has been/never really was. Cyborg fight is a sideshow attraction as well... PASS. Manuwa by TKO at even money seems decent for a little bit. Volkan caught Misha and beat a lackadaisical OSP but Manuwa realizes he could be fighting for a title shot here so I think he handles his business and dominates. Volkan is very tough but think he gets finished somewhere along the way. I have ZERO clue what to think about this Albu chick but I'm not laying chalk on someone with like 2 pro fights even against Curran.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I don't get the JJ love. People talking about this blue belt clown subbing DC is ridicoulous. Only chance he has at a TKO win is a gassed DC and Jones throwing unanswered shots or hellbows from the top which is very unlikely. I liked the NOT Jones by TKO at -600 or so but it is already up to -900. Still a decent parlay piece.

Jones' Front Headlock game is amazing. I see lots of wrestling/grappling exchanges in this fight which leaves lots of opportunities for Guillotines, D'Arce Chokes, Anacondas etc. Who cares that he is a blue belt? Demetrious Johnson is a WHITE belt and he subbed BJJ champion Wilson Reis. Jones has been working a lot on his BJJ game and will look to use it here.

[JIBBBY]

Loving this card so far. Feeling 5 plays for sure

Cerrone +140 (Robbie Lawler hits hard blah blah blah, the guy rarely throws and Cowboy could do work in the clinch and at kicking range. Unless he gets KTFO'd hard then he wins a decision based on output))

My initial lean was Ruthless Robbie but -

Cowboy always brings it standing and Ruthless Robbie just got KO'd by Woodley.. This is a what if fight? Cowboy will be game standing that's all I know.. What if Robbie is not himself after the KO.. What if Cowboy fights cautious after getting KO'd.. Masvidal knocked Cowboys head off but Robbie Lawler doesn't have the slick boxing like Masvidal..

This fight is tricky and there are many intangibles involved.. Still not sure how to play it??.. I may also just gamble and go with Cowboy for small.. It's not gonna be a fight I'm gonna load up on that for sure..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Loving this card so far. Feeling 5 plays for sure

Cerrone +140 (Robbie Lawler hits hard blah blah blah, the guy rarely throws and Cowboy could do work in the clinch and at kicking range. Unless he gets KTFO'd hard then he wins a decision based on output)

Burkman +285 (Dober -300 over anyone in the UFC LW division is shaky. Burkman is on his last legs sure, but he's still a decent sized LW with pretty good grappling. Burkman was very competitive with MUCH better competition like Zak Ottow and Paul Felder and I think he can get a few TD's against Dober and maybe steal a SD)

Shelton +130 (Shelton arguably could have won a great season of TUF with Tim Elliot, Brandon Moreno, and Pantoja on it. I was a little unsure of him still but he fought Pantoja decently well in a fight I bet against him in and he's facing a guy in Brooks who hasn't fought anything resembling UFC competition and Shelton is the much bigger guy. I doubt Brooks will be able to use his wrestling heavy game against someone with the size and athleticism of Shelton who also has a 6 inch reach edge)


Moicano -150 (The only fave on my list but there is a reason why. Ortega is an opportunist who capitalizes on mistakes. He did it against Diego Brandao (in a fight he would have lost 30-27) and to Thiago Tavares (same 30-27 situation probably). The issue here is Moicano is a much much better striker than Tavares and is a world class BJJ black belt compared to Brandao. I love how well Moicano defends against getting hit and moves and Ortega isn't a wrestler. This fight stays standing and Moicano wins a boring ugly decision as Ortega rushes in constantly to get sticked and moved)

Lamas +100 (Here's how I'll describe this. Lamas was -120 against Charles Oliveira in his last fight that Oliveira weighed in NINE pounds overweight. Lamas won that fight by SUB in the 2nd round. Knight was -120 in his last fight against Chas Skelly. Skelly was very competitive in the 1st 2 round (19-19) until he gassed and Knight finished him. So explain to me why a guy -120 vs Skelly is favored over a guy who was -120 over DO BRONX fighting a weight class heavier than him)

With you on Moicano and Cowboy. Staying away from some of the others so I'm rooting for ya.

Disagree that Zak Ottow qualifies as MUCH better competition than Dober. I think they are about the same level.

Think your read on Moicano fight is dead on although I don't think Brandao is a BJJ bum, Ortega just a really opportunistic finisher.

Lots of hype behind Knight. No strong read on this fight so I'm staying away. Would have played Knight at (+150) or better but can't bet him as a favorite here.

[Hugo de Naranja]

My initial lean was Ruthless Robbie but -

Cowboy always brings it standing and Ruthless Robbie just got KO'd by Woodley.. This is a what if fight? Cowboy will be game standing that's all I know.. What if Robbie is not himself after the KO.. What if Cowboy fights cautious after getting KO'd.. Masvidal knocked Cowboys head off but Robbie Lawler doesn't have the slick boxing like Masvidal..

This fight is tricky and there are many intangibles involved.. Still not sure how to play it??.. I may also just gamble and go with Cowboy for small.. It's not gonna be a fight I'm gonna load up on that for sure..

Why not try Cowboy KO/TKO (+500) for a benny? Cowboy finished Matt Brown, Rick Story, and Patrick Cote with late-round knockouts so he's proved his kicks are lethal at WW. Add to that the fact that Lawler is not a great defender against kicks (Manhoef fight etc.) and I think there's a lot of value to be had with that prop

[TPowell]

With you on Moicano and Cowboy. Staying away from some of the others so I'm rooting for ya.

Disagree that Zak Ottow qualifies as MUCH better competition than Dober. I think they are about the same level.

Think your read on Moicano fight is dead on although I don't think Brandao is a BJJ bum, Ortega just a really opportunistic finisher.

Lots of hype behind Knight. No strong read on this fight so I'm staying away. Would have played Knight at (+150) or better but can't bet him as a favorite here.

I grade Ottow as about a -175 fave over Dober. Dober is low level UFC caliber. Burkman looked terrible against Tractor but that was a very bad matchup for him IMO. My issue here is that Knight was taken down by Skelly and held down for about 2 mins in the 1st before Skelly tired. Lamas will definitely be able to do that IMO and he won't gas so I have a hard time seeing Knight win by anything other than a crazy sub if Lamas decides to wrestle.

[TPowell]

My initial lean was Ruthless Robbie but -

Cowboy always brings it standing and Ruthless Robbie just got KO'd by Woodley.. This is a what if fight? Cowboy will be game standing that's all I know.. What if Robbie is not himself after the KO.. What if Cowboy fights cautious after getting KO'd.. Masvidal knocked Cowboys head off but Robbie Lawler doesn't have the slick boxing like Masvidal..

This fight is tricky and there are many intangibles involved.. Still not sure how to play it??.. I may also just gamble and go with Cowboy for small.. It's not gonna be a fight I'm gonna load up on that for sure..

Big difference between Robbie and Mas. Mas throws with much more volume than Robbie. Lawler is a slow starter as well so Cowboy should be able to get his feet wet and not feel too threatened for the first couple mins or so of the fight which is when he is at his worst. I think Cowboy wins a decision here with much more volume on the feet

[JIBBBY]

I see this being a stand up war between Cowboy and Lawler.. Cowboy could win by decision just on volume I agree. It's only a 3 round fight and not a 5 rounder either.. Don't think there is gonna be a finish in this fight. Both guys are typically tough and hard to finish even though both got stopped recently.. Both will probably be chin protecting also after both got KO'd..

Masividal is absolutely a better striker then Ruthless Robbie I agree, so Cowboy should be ok... Cowboy is not gonna blitz Ruthless Rob with speed and punching power and knock you out like Woodley just did on the flip..

[Hugo de Naranja]

I see this being a stand up war between Cowboy and Lawler.. Cowboy could win by decision just on volume I agree. It's only a 3 round fight and not a 5 rounder either.. Don't think there is gonna be a finish in this fight. Both guys are typically tough and hard to finish even though both got stopped recently.. Both will probably be chin protecting also after both got KO'd..

Masividal is absolutely a better striker then Ruthless Robbie I agree, so Cowboy should be ok... Cowboy is not gonna blitz Ruthless Rob with speed and punching power and knock you out like Woodley just did on the flip..

I'm actually quite confident in a finish here. Win or lose when has Cerrone gone to decision recently? His last 7 fights, and all 5 WW fights have ended in a finish, 6 in KO/TKO.

[JIBBBY]

I'm actually quite confident in a finish here. Win or lose when has Cerrone gone to decision recently? His last 7 fights, and all 5 WW fights have ended in a finish, 6 in KO/TKO.

Robbie is tough to put away if he is not clipped fresh like with Woodley.. You remember the 5 round wars with a game Rory Mac right?

Robbie just went 5 rounds to a split decision win against Carlos Condit before the Woodley disaster.... Condit is another tall rangy tough fighter kinda like Cowboy but different.. Both are tall and throw kicks and punches anyways.... So Robbie showed he can hang with the tall rangy strikers and kickers for 5 rounds and this fight is only 3....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Robbie-Lawler-2245

I just see both protecting the chin a bit and it being MT/Boxing stand up point war thru 3...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Robbie is tough to put away if he is not clipped fresh like with Woodley.. You remember the 5 round wars with a game Rory Mac right?

Robbie just went 5 rounds to a split decision win against Carlos Condit before the Woodley disaster.... Condit is another tall rangy tough fighter kinda like Cowboy but different.. Both are tall and throw kicks and punches anyways.... So Robbie showed he can hang with the tall rangy strikers and kickers for 5 rounds and this fight is only 3....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Robbie-Lawler-2245

I just see both protecting the chin a bit and it being MT/Boxing stand up point war thru 3...

Fair enough. Should be a fun fight either way. Expecting fireworks

[Tesla_Grace]

Welcome to the forum Tesla!

Thank you, I am new to all of this!

[JIBBBY]

I'm going over all the fights again now.. I really wanna win this event big..

Quick thought on Cyborg..

I know Cyborg is gonna slaughter Evinger standing and probably KO her early on.. Still, I'm looking at Evinger and she actually is a good wrestler and has alot of MMA fights and experience..She's been winning fights lately as well in Invicta.. If Evinger can take Cyborg down and avoid the KO early on she's got a chance.. I give the ground and wrestling advantage to Evinger.. Evinger is a wrestling based fighter and that's her game.. Cyborg is striking based.. Anything can happen if Cyborg gets winded, grounded and put on her back.. That's all I'm saying.

Evinger hasm't been finished since 2010.. She been winning ever since.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tonya-Evinger-18248

Evinger has 15 finishes in 19 fight wins and this fight is a 5 rounder also. She's clearly not gonna win this fight standing against Cyborg but on the ground and with her wrestling back ground she could wear down Cyborg and maybe finish her late if the fight gets grounded often..


Cyborg has never fought past 4 rounds either in her entire MMA career..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Cristiane-Justino-14477


This is a pretty good hedge or long shot prop play anyways.. Value is there..

1205 Evinger wins inside distance

+1131

Cyborg still probably gets the KO though.. She's a beast standing!!!

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm going over all the fights again now.. I really wanna win this event big..

Quick thought on Cyborg..

I know Cyborg is gonna slaughter Evinger standing and probably KO her early on.. Still, I'm looking at Evinger and she actually is a good wrestler and has alot of MMA fights and experience..She's been winning fights lately as well in Invicta.. If Evinger can take Cyborg down and avoid the KO early on she's got a chance.. I give the ground and wrestling advantage to Evinger.. Evinger is a wrestling based fighter and that's her game.. Cyborg is striking based.. Anything can happen if Cyborg gets winded, grounded and put on her back.. That's all I'm saying.

Evinger hasm't been finished since 2010.. She been winning ever since.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tonya-Evinger-18248

Evinger has 15 finishes in 19 fight wins and this fight is a 5 rounder also. She's clearly not gonna win this fight standing against Cyborg but on the ground and with her wrestling back ground she could wear down Cyborg and maybe finish her late if the fight gets grounded often..


Cyborg has never fought past 4 rounds either in her entire MMA career..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Cristiane-Justino-14477


This is a pretty good hedge or long shot prop play anyways.. Value is there..

1205 Evinger wins inside distance

+1131

Cyborg still probably gets the KO though.. She's a beast standing!!!

I think Cyborg Submission at (+960) may be worth a longshot as well. Evinger has never been KO/TKO'ed but has 5 submission losses in 6 career losses (including her TUF loss to Raquel Pennington). While I think Cyborg KO is much more likely, I wouldn't be shocked if Cyborg hurt Evinger badly and went for an RNC if the referee didn't step in quickly. I believe the prop would also catch on the (very) longshot that Evinger taps from strikes.

Good eye on the Evinger ITD idea. I was looking at that too. No one is unbeatable but man is Cyborg a tough matchup for anyone. NO clear flaws in her game imo. Not just a phenomenal kickboxer but good TDD, grappling, cardio etc.

[Demonata]

Cyborg will win in like 30 seconds

[Hugo de Naranja]

Cyborg will win in like 30 seconds

What's the O/U on seconds that Evinger lasts? I'd set it at 149.5 seconds

[JIBBBY]

Tough odds to swallow ..

1225 Justino wins in round 1

-170

Odds get much better after round 1 as JC mentioned in an earlier post.. Odds dropped as well since then.. Only +450 now..

1227 Justino wins in round 2

+450

1229 Justino wins in round 3

+1000

[Demonata]

What's the O/U on seconds that Evinger lasts? I'd set it at 149.5 seconds

Lol no idea. I'm not even betting this card. Have that miracle parlay that won't hit so just watching it to enjoy it. Going to do a shot for every submission or knock out.

[Mase of Base]

Cyborg will win in like 30 seconds

This is what I think, contest is a total mismatch imo if this gets close to lasting a full round I will be shocked. 30 seconds is a legit chance I think it's all over in two minutes easy though. Honestly think Cyborgs ML even has value I think she's a $1.01 shot (not sure what that is in American odds).

[Mase of Base]

Tough odds to swallow ..

1225 Justino wins in round 1

-170

Odds get much better after round 1 as JC mentioned in an earlier post.. Odds dropped as well since then.. Only +450 now..

1227 Justino wins in round 2

+450

1229 Justino wins in round 3

+1000

Is it though that isn't that bad? Man I'm probably wrong but Cyborgs ruins this poor girls night and badly imo. Replied to Demontas post before seeing this and I think it lasts around 1min 30. My books a bit worse than that but I'll be on a rd1 stoppage for sure be my biggest bet of the night at this stage.

I don't even want to watch it I think it'll be a horror movie!

[Mase of Base]

Just after I mentioned Cyborg ko rd1 being my biggest bet I thought it was going to be Lawler I was so confident when the card was released but I can't pull trigger, even warming to Cowboy a little!

Think I'll just tail this thread and watch, I like the card but for me betting it is hard (I'm fairly new to betting the sport)!

*oh and Woodley/Maia I hope is a draw two of my favourite fighters! But Woodley looks easy here, books are giving much more respect to Maia than I thought they would which scares me, I mean the guy is a legend but I thought he looked average last fight and personally didn't even think he won it this is a massive step up against a guy he'll be doing to to get to the ground let alone wrestle fukk to win win rounds.

[Shagdogy]

Surprised everyone talking about Lawlor being this average striker and cowboy winning a decision on volume. I think Robbie is the bigger and more durable guy here and if Cowboy can't take him out then Lawlor will get TKO.

[Shagdogy]

Weird stuff with Woodley/Maia. Both guys lost a unanimous decision to Rory, split decision to Shields, and only been KO'd by Marquardt, and neither has ever been submitted.

I'm working my courage up to hit a Woodley for my biggest bet on the card. He should be able to get the better of the standup and avoid the takedown. He says he's gonna go in there to end it quick, but I expect a super cautious fight where Woodley puts takedown defense as his #1 priority far and away above anything else.

[JIBBBY]

Surprised everyone talking about Lawlor being this average striker and cowboy winning a decision on volume. I think Robbie is the bigger and more durable guy here and if Cowboy can't take him out then Lawlor will get TKO.

Maybe could happen.. I'm not writing off Ruthless Robbie but Cowboy is a game fighter.. Solid standing and brings it.. Lawler better watch out for the Cowboy head kicks that's all I know..

This is the one fight I'm looking forward to seeing on this card the most. *as a fan... Good match up!!

[JIBBBY]

Weird stuff with Woodley/Maia. Both guys lost a unanimous decision to Rory, split decision to Shields, and only been KO'd by Marquardt, and neither has ever been submitted.

I'm working my courage up to hit a Woodley for my biggest bet on the card. He should be able to get the better of the standup and avoid the takedown. He says he's gonna go in there to end it quick, but I expect a super cautious fight where Woodley puts takedown defense as his #1 priority far and away above anything else.

I can't argue your MMA logic.. Woodley to explosive, to fast, to good of wrestling.. Maia's needs to survive and maybe drag this fight out, maybe get Woodley tired and careless late.. Get that take down.. Only problem is Woodley might have a better gas tank then Maia as well though.. I just think T-Woods hand and foot speed will be to much early on...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Weird stuff with Woodley/Maia. Both guys lost a unanimous decision to Rory, split decision to Shields, and only been KO'd by Marquardt, and neither has ever been submitted.

I'm working my courage up to hit a Woodley for my biggest bet on the card. He should be able to get the better of the standup and avoid the takedown. He says he's gonna go in there to end it quick, but I expect a super cautious fight where Woodley puts takedown defense as his #1 priority far and away above anything else.

Seems like EVERYONE is on Woodley for this fight, right? I get it's a bad matchup for Maia and Woodley has great TDD but what good wrestlers has he fought?

After he knocked out Galvao, Woodley finished his Strikeforce stint with three straight strikers in Saffiedine, Daley, and Mein. Then in the UFC he faced, Marquardt, Hieron, Shields, washed up Koscheck, Condit, MacDonald, Stun Gun, Gastelum, Lawler, and Thompson twice.

Who out of those guys had the wrestling to test Woodley. Maybe Shields, Koscheck, MacDonald and Kim? But even then, Woodley's last four fights have been against pure strikers and I don't think any of the guys mentioned above have the wrestling capabilities of Maia.

Just playing Devil's Advocate here

[PaperTrail07]

I see it like the masvidal fight w more power....on Woodley here....

I know a lot of people have been over this, but realistically, what is Demian Maia's path to victory? Is he going to win with striking? No. Is he going to shoot a single or double and get Woodley to the mat? I don't think so because Woodley is going to be soooo careful about his distance and not committing to his strikes. He will be thinking sprawl first and foremost. Is he going to pull guard off of a failed shot attempt, and then look to sweep once he has Woodley on top? He might, but Woodley will not engage on the ground. He refused to engage on the ground with Galvao years ago in Strikeforce. He's not gonna do it with Maia, so check that plan off the list. I can literally only see ONE way that Maia takes this fight, and that is for him to push Woodley against the cage and then transition to his back while standing. Backpack position. Maia is very good at this, but I've also heard Woodley specifically reference it, which makes me believe he has trained for it. Outside of Maia taking Woodley's back from standing, I can't see any way he wins this fight. So is that gonna happen?

[PaperTrail07]

Two TOTALLY diff type of fighters....masvidal uses his in an out skills...Lawler will eat one to give one and wants a BRAWL.....if he walks cowboy down he could end him REAL quick IMO.....Lawler will absolutely NOT be getting knocked out....

I see this being a stand up war between Cowboy and Lawler.. Cowboy could win by decision just on volume I agree. It's only a 3 round fight and not a 5 rounder either.. Don't think there is gonna be a finish in this fight. Both guys are typically tough and hard to finish even though both got stopped recently.. Both will probably be chin protecting also after both got KO'd..

Masividal is absolutely a better striker then Ruthless Robbie I agree, so Cowboy should be ok... Cowboy is not gonna blitz Ruthless Rob with speed and punching power and knock you out like Woodley just did on the flip..

[PaperTrail07]

That bomb that KO'd Lawler from Woodley would take a normal persons head off....he was hunting ....Cerrone more Maui thai w his footwork...fits RIGHT into lawler's gameplan of ATTACK the guy that stands in front of you LMFAO.....

[Venom OG]

Jones-Cormier over 4.5 -162. Bet of the year so far. If the fight was 10 rounds, it would probably still go the distance. Both guys are so good defensively. If you watch the last fight, there was no point where anyone was even close to being finished. And of course, neither guy has ever been finished in his career -- that's 26 total fights in UFC between the two fighters. If AJ couldn't knock Cormier out, then Jones definitely can't. (A head kick, or elbows from the top, as another poster pointed out, would be the only possibilities, and both are extremely unlikely.) A Jones submission win is almost impossible -- Cormier's defense is too good, and his neck is too large. Cormier by submission is also virtually impossible -- even is he gets Jones down, he has basically no chance of keeping him down for more than 1.5 seconds, and a stand up choke is going to be impossible to keep in with his short fat arms against Jones' great defense (Jones easily got out of one last fight). Cormier by KO is virtually the only way this fight could end early, and that has probably not even a 5% chance of happening -- Jones took a few shots last fight but was never hurt. These odds should be at least -500. Such a great value spot.

[Shagdogy]

Seems like EVERYONE is on Woodley for this fight, right? I get it's a bad matchup for Maia and Woodley has great TDD but what good wrestlers has he fought?

After he knocked out Galvao, Woodley finished his Strikeforce stint with three straight strikers in Saffiedine, Daley, and Mein. Then in the UFC he faced, Marquardt, Hieron, Shields, washed up Koscheck, Condit, MacDonald, Stun Gun, Gastelum, Lawler, and Thompson twice.

Who out of those guys had the wrestling to test Woodley. Maybe Shields, Koscheck, MacDonald and Kim? But even then, Woodley's last four fights have been against pure strikers and I don't think any of the guys mentioned above have the wrestling capabilities of Maia.

Just playing Devil's Advocate here

Hugo, this is the exact logic that kept me from betting on Whittaker vs Jacare and we know how that went. I'm on Woodley. I agree the line, the love for Woodley, Maia's win streak, it all makes me nervous but I have to take Woodley, just not risking my undefeated record of 4 and 5u bets. Woodley is getting 3u.

[JIBBBY]

Venom ^^ IDK?

DC was gassing out big time late in that 1st fight.. Not so sure how much longer he would have survived.. DC is not getting any younger today.. Not sure his cardio has improved either since...

Never the less it does probably go the distance.. JJ and DC are very hard to finish...

1003 Cormier / Jones goes 5 round distance

-160

1011 Jones wins by 5 round decision

+108

1047 Jones wins by 5 round unanimous decision

+155

[Shagdogy]

That bomb that KO'd Lawler from Woodley would take a normal persons head off....he was hunting ....Cerrone more Maui thai w his footwork...fits RIGHT into lawler's gameplan of ATTACK the guy that stands in front of you LMFAO.....

Hope you're right Paper. As a fan, I want to see a slugfest and Cerrone has never been one to fight strategic rather than giving the fans what they want. I think these guys are gonna bang, so I'm putting a little on Lawlor TKO plus money.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo, this is the exact logic that kept me from betting on Whittaker vs Jacare and we know how that went. I'm on Woodley. I agree the line, the love for Woodley, Maia's win streak, it all makes me nervous but I have to take Woodley, just not risking my undefeated record of 4 and 5u bets. Woodley is getting 3u.

To me it's a question of price. Interesting comparison to Whittaker/Jacare as I think there are some good parallels there. I was on Whittaker despite his unproven TDD against elite opponents because he was (+200) but I can't take Woodley in this spot at (-220). Either way, best of luck to ya bud! Hope you cash it.