UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 (March 04, 2017)

[Fight4m]

I agree but on the flip I don't think Khabib has fought anyone like El Cucuy either that is so well rounded and funky awkward in every area.....

It's a clash of styles for sure.. Has my interest... I typically don't bet against strong wrestlers either in this sport..

Hi guys,I'm new to this forum,but have been following and reading all your posts here every week.I left my job 1 month ago,a 8 hr a day,$7.25 hr , stressfully job,cause boxing and UFC betting is all I do now,and when I was at work I made good money on betting alone ,so decided to live just on betting,and it's proven to be extremely profitable and Ive done this for years and my strategy is study all aspects of each fighter, watch them fight and Ferguson vs khabib is the only one I'm gonna bet this week.

I placed a $600 bet to win $1080 on Ferguson,and a parlay of Thurman and Fer/khab over 3.5 $800 to win $1068

First off everyone who watch this guy Khabib may fall in love with him just for his record and the way he looks to dominate his opponents,not me,and I'm pretty sure some of you don't fall for that trap, specially against a guy like Ferguson.He got 8 sub,8,kos and 8 dec and if you look closely almost all those submissions were fighting weak opponents,when he started fighting better fighters he just can't submit nobody,and he depends only on desicions and his wrestling skills,the fight that got my attention was the Trujillo fight,He was on top of him and was unable to get a submission ,hmm he only depends on his wrestling and is facing a guy so slick here,full of energy and stamina, that has every advantage here, he is gonna outwork Khabib every round,he's not gonna fall getting taken down like the others,Ferguson is just on another level guys,and on top of that ,Khabib father is talking about Khabib retirement lol,my money is on Ferguson,I don't see Khabib ko him or getting a submission ,Ferguson is the guy who will expose that Khabib guy.

[SEKTAUR]

Odds on Tony are too good to pass up, Id rather go down a unit on that then go down 2 on Khabib. Tyron vs Stephen is a tuff one, the over 2 1/2 looks good although its -175.

[Fight4m]

Interesting odds,Khabib is like +110 to win by desicion,so he's expected to win by desicion easily lol,the only way he can win by desicion is if he can get some wrestling on Tony,cause his standing skills are average and short reach,I just don't see him getting a desicion lol,for me it's Ferguson by sub or by desicion,both at +400

[JIBBBY]

Hi guys,I'm new to this forum,but have been following and reading all your posts here every week.I left my job 1 month ago,a 8 hr a day,$7.25 hr , stressfully job,cause boxing and UFC betting is all I do now,and when I was at work I made good money on betting alone ,so decided to live just on betting,and it's proven to be extremely profitable and Ive done this for years and my strategy is study all aspects of each fighter, watch them fight and Ferguson vs khabib is the only one I'm gonna bet this week.

I placed a $600 bet to win $1080 on Ferguson,and a parlay of Thurman and Fer/khab over 3.5 $800 to win $1068

First off everyone who watch this guy Khabib may fall in love with him just for his record and the way he looks to dominate his opponents,not me,and I'm pretty sure some of you don't fall for that trap, specially against a guy like Ferguson.He got 8 sub,8,kos and 8 dec and if you look closely almost all those submissions were fighting weak opponents,when he started fighting better fighters he just can't submit nobody,and he depends only on desicions and his wrestling skills,the fight that got my attention was the Trujillo fight,He was on top of him and was unable to get a submission ,hmm he only depends on his wrestling and is facing a guy so slick here,full of energy and stamina, that has every advantage here, he is gonna outwork Khabib every round,he's not gonna fall getting taken down like the others,Ferguson is just on another level guys,and on top of that ,Khabib father is talking about Khabib retirement lol,my money is on Ferguson,I don't see Khabib ko him or getting a submission ,Ferguson is the guy who will expose that Khabib guy.

Cheers buddy.. MMA has been very profitable for me over the years so it can be done.. I'd be nervous if it was my only source of income though to be honest.. You better pick your spots carefully..

I guess we see the same things clearly in the match up with Ferg/Khabib.. Good luck!!!


I've been hit and miss in the last 3 UFC events but I hardly every lose my ass on anyone one event.. It's more likely that I'll kill it on an event then lose it entirely.. So that's what we all shoot for... Just pound out wins bud!!!

[Fight4m]

Thanks,let's get it,can't wait till Saturday lol.

[Thor4140]

I think u El Cuchy fans should bet inside the distance. When i see this many people on a dog like this and when it goes the distance, they usually get screwed. U can have this pegged like true MMA experts yet have the judges screw it big time for ya. Hate to break it to ya fellas but this isn't bad judging this is called bringing the money home for the books disguised as bad judging.

[Thor4140]

Does anyone have an update on Hunts training? I love him here but again i can't risk taking him and he forgets to train again.

[Thor4140]

I didn't read the whole thread but i think Woodley is a live dog here and the big reason is because he knows what to expect this time around and i thought he did a great job the first fight in a great fight. Didn't Shogun smash Machida his second time around? To me this seems like a similar type of situation. Except i have to believe Shogun was on better roids than Machida that fight. Jeez the first fight Machida was hitting Shogun with kicks i could feel but then again when u are roided up u can take those type of kicks.

[JIBBBY]

Does anyone have an update on Hunts training? I love him here but again i can't risk taking him and he forgets to train again.

Odds are about spot on in my opinion.. I think it's a tough fight to bet on..

UFC 209 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV

Sat 3/4		1401 Mark Hunt		+120	o1½ +110
10:00PM		1402 Alistair Overeem		-140	u1½ -130

Hunts an old man (42) with a withering chin Thor. Reem (36) has a suspect chin himself though but you gotta think Reem will have a striking and speed advantage and try and keep the fight at distance.. If he doesn't gas and get clipped on the chin I think he knocks out Hunt..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mark-Hunt-10668

[Sanity Check]

Boom.

Finally.

[Shagdogy]

Anyone have thoughts on Pedro vs. Craig?

I have a ton... put most of it in post #40 on this thread. I think you are seeing it right. Not a lot of tape on Pedro but what is out there shows that he NEVER fails on takedown attempts when he gets in deep around the body, and once on the ground he is very very good at working to mount, doing damage, forcing guys to give up their back, and then sinking in RNC. The combination of his ability to hurt guys from on top/mount, and then also his tight transitions to back and RNC make him a very tough opponent IMO. He leaves you very little option on the mat. Stay on your back and play BJJ and he will pound on you. Roll over to escape? He's gonna sub you. I like this guy, but admittedly we haven't seen a ton of him yet, in particular his skills on the feet.

Paul Craig looks like a very legit prospect too and someone who just has some serious natural talent, BUT he is very comfortable off his back and he is used to getting subs from there. Assuming Pedro is as strong as he has looked, he should be very aware of the sub attempts and able to keep good posture. I don't doubt Pedro will land takedowns because Craig allows guys to get in deep on him and relies on his BJJ to protect him on the mat, and he's VERY good at it. I just think this is a bad stylistic matchup for him. He's not the guy to throw power and pick Pedro apart with technical striking, and he allows guys in the clinch way too easily and gives up takedowns. His fight vs. Karl Moore is particularly troubling because he was mounted for the majority of the 1st round. If Pedro gets to mount on him, he's in big danger. Also, Craig trains at a small gym in Scotland and says himself that he doesn't watch any tape of opponents. Meanwhile Pedro has been at Jackson's for this fight so he will be prepared with a gameplan specifically for Craig.

I think this will be a great fight and I'm especially excited to bet it because I think Pedro will likely open as the dog. He's much more unknown than Craig, and people probably won't overreact to his victory over Rountree. It's a gamble for sure because there's not much to see on Pedro, but I believe in him and I think he matches up well vs. Craig. Surprised these guys are matched up against each other since they could both do big things.

[Shagdogy]

Boom.

Finally.

I LOVE the line for Godbeer and seems like a lot of value for Elkins. Can anyone tell more about Spitz? He's on super short notice and what I saw on him did not have me impressed AT ALL. He's also one of those Sikjitsu fighters.

[JIBBBY]

I LOVE the line for Godbeer and seems like a lot of value for Elkins. Can anyone tell more about Spitz? He's on super short notice and what I saw on him did not have me impressed AT ALL. He's also one of those Sikjitsu fighters.

I agree Elkins has a chance in this one.. Those odds are off I think as well..

[Deceptakhan]

Yall seen the Khabib vs Tibau fight? Tibau stuffed all 12 of Khabibs TD's.

[Thor4140]

Odds are about spot on in my opinion.. I think it's a tough fight to bet on..

UFC 209 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV

Sat 3/4		1401 Mark Hunt		+120	o1½ +110
10:00PM		1402 Alistair Overeem		-140	u1½ -130

Hunts an old man (42) with a withering chin Thor. Reem (36) has a suspect chin himself though but you gotta think Reem will have a striking and speed advantage and try and keep the fight at distance.. If he doesn't gas and get clipped on the chin I think he knocks out Hunt..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mark-Hunt-10668

.
Jibby please lets not compare the two's chins lol. They are not even close. If Hunt is in shape Reem gets knocked out. Where did u see HUnts chin ever give him a problem? When someones foot connects with it? Kinda confused with the Sherdog link. What was that for? U want me to see Hunts record?

[firekillex]

overeem definitely the better / more complete fighter and 3 rounds if he can stay on the outside its his fight to lose
but mark hunt connect once on overeems glass chin the fighters over in a blink of the eye

[JIBBBY]

.
Jibby please lets not compare the two's chins lol. They are not even close. If Hunt is in shape Reem gets knocked out. Where did u see HUnts chin ever give him a problem? When someones foot connects with it? Kinda confused with the Sherdog link. What was that for? U want me to see Hunts record?

The Sherdog link was to show you Hunt got KO'd 3 times in the last 3 years.. Stipe, Werdum and JDS.. His chin is going.. Here it is again.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mark-Hunt-10668

Never said Hunt won't knock out Reem though.. I said it was a tough bet.. However, Reem is fully capable of kicking Hunt in the head by the way as he won't have to worry about being taken down in this fight.. I'm sure he'll let the kicks fly..... GL..

[CaptChaos145]

He also cheated against Barbosa with an illegal kick to change around a fight he was losing as well as the eye-poke to flip the Dos Anjos fight. The guy starts losing im very curious to see what he pulls next. He has a lot of weapons in his arsenal. Ad cheating he looks like a lock.

Yes but Ferguson was slowly breaking Barbosa and finished him half way through the fight. Once Barbosa figured out he couldn't hurt Tony Barbosa folded. Ferguson was really impressive in that fight.

[CaptChaos145]

Anyone have thoughts on Pedro vs. Craig?

I lean Pedro and he opened as the dog. It's hard to gauge Pedro though cause he hasn't been out of the 1st round in any of his fights.

[GoBlue77]

I can see Ferguson controlling the fight but then ala Miesha Tate over Holly Holm, the Russian is going to sneak a win somehow at the end. One thing you guys aren't giving credit to...Russians are sneaky Plus that unorthodox left punch he throws, its VERY effective.

really good break down of the fight

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7MPbVB0Hbg

surprised all of you are on Ferg

[JIBBBY]

Yes but Ferguson was slowly breaking Barbosa and finished him half way through the fight. Once Barbosa figured out he couldn't hurt Tony Barbosa folded. Ferguson was really impressive in that fight.

Yep he was the terminator in that fight.. That was the one fight I completely decided I would never bet against Tony again..

He was a beast in that fight..

[CaptChaos145]

Yall seen the Khabib vs Tibau fight? Tibau stuffed all 12 of Khabibs TD's.

Yes and it was Khabib's 2nd fight in the UFC and Tibau is 1 of the biggest LW's alive plus he just got popped by USADA. That was actually a fairly close fight. Khabib has improved since then. Buuuut Ferguson fought Tibau and finished him on the ground but hurt him standing 1st. Tibau has been a journeyman and beat a lot of guys but lost to the elite.

[CaptChaos145]

The Sherdog link was to show you Hunt got KO'd 3 times in the last 3 years.. Stipe, Werdum and JDS.. His chin is going.. Here it is again.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mark-Hunt-10668

Never said Hunt won't knock out Reem though.. I said it was a tough bet.. Reem is fully capable of kicking Hunt in the head by the way... GL..

The Werdum and JDS fights were legit KO's but Stipe got a tko (ref stepped in from G&P) in the 5th round. I lean Hunt BUT I'm afreaid of those Reem knees. Reem will have over a half a foot on Hunt.

[JIBBBY]

The Werdum and JDS fights were legit KO's but Stipe got a tko (ref stepped in from G&P) in the 5th round. I lean Hunt BUT I'm afreaid of those Reem knees. Reem will have over a half a foot on Hunt.

I edited my above post just now and added Reem won't have to worry about being taken down in this fight so I fully expect him to tee off with kicks and knees.

This fight probably ends in a KO one way or the other..

[CaptChaos145]

Yep he was the terminator in that fight.. That was the one fight I completely decided I would never bet against Tony again..

He was a beast in that fight..

I was blown away. Ferguson walked through all Barbosa's power shots.
I've watched hundreds of fight live cage side at the regional level and Barbosa was without a doubt the most impressive offensive fighter I ever saw. His kicks are lightning fast. Seeing them live and up close was amazing.

[CaptChaos145]

Kinda off tangent but can anyone tell me (in basic verbiage) how to get a notification from 5dimes when the lines are released? I'm always a step behind.

[JIBBBY]

I was blown away. Ferguson walked through all Barbosa's power shots.
I've watched hundreds of fight live cage side at the regional level and Barbosa was without a doubt the most impressive offensive fighter I ever saw. His kicks are lightning fast. Seeing them live and up close was amazing.

Yep but he was on the verge of being KO'd in the next fight against Vannata where he got seriously clipped and rocked. El Cucuy was doing the drunken dance but survived and got the finish.. He showed big heart in that fight.. Tony needs to be careful with Khabib as he does pack power...

This isn't the gif where he got rocked but he needs to be careful walking down Khabib..

[CaptChaos145]

I didn't see anyone posting about Rashad. Kelly is durable and tough as nails but I think Rashad is too damn skilled for this cat. The line isn't too bad.

[JIBBBY]

I didn't see anyone posting about Rashad. Kelly is durable and tough as nails but I think Rashad is too damn skilled for this cat. The line isn't too bad.

Rashad Evans is washed up now and complete fade material.. I'm fading big time as I don't think he can win.. I see alot of dogs barking in this event.. Loving it!!! ..

[CaptChaos145]

Lines on the draw prop isn pretty good. I think we will see more draws with the new scoring system.
Woodley/Thompson draw +5500
Ferguson/Khabib +6000
If Khabib and Ferguson draw it buys Conor more time. Heck $10 to win $600 seems like a nice way to take a shot for very little money!

[JIBBBY]

I do think many dogs will hit on this card...

[CaptChaos145]

Yep but he was on the verge of being KO'd in the next fight against Vannata where he got seriously clipped and rocked. El Cucuy was doing the drunken dance but survived and got the finish.. He showed big heart in that fight.. Tony needs to be careful with Khabib as he does pack power...

This isn't the gif where he got rocked but he needs to be careful walking down Khabib..

Tony did get handled a bit there but I think it was hard for him to get up for Vennata. Tony's spidy senses will be in full effect this Saturday night! We both know if you don't take Tony out he will just keep on coming. Imo he's the toughest most durable fighter on the roster.

[Shagdogy]

Hopped in early...
Godbeer 4u, -140
Pedro 2u, -120
Alcantara 1.5u, Even
Morales 1.4u, -140
Elkins .67u, +295

More to come I'm sure. Good luck everyone!

[JIBBBY]

Woodley, Kelly, Elkins, Ferguson =

[Hugo de Naranja]

Woodley, Kelly, Elkins, Ferguson =

On 3 of 4 with you. Think Bektic smokes Elkins. Otherwise let's get it bro