UFC Fight Night: Caceres vs. Rodriguez (August 06, 2016)

**xagonzx** · 08-08-16, 01:50 PM

Hugo de Naranja

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Originally Posted by xagonzx
I think the -3.5 would be worth a shot, depending on the odds. Maybe Scorecards no action? Story MIGHT be able to grind out a 29-28 decision. I don't see Story finishing Cowboy, but can see cowboy finishing him. I can see either winning a close decision.

I think it will be somewhere in the (+150) area. Cowboy Scorecards No Action will probably be SUPER juiced since the consensus is that Story won't finish him. I'd guess in the realm of (-450). The Over 2.5 Rounds (-175) and Fight Goes Distance (-150) are also attractive.

Good points. hmm maybe Cowboy -3.5 (covers wide decision or finish), hedged with Story DEC. Maybe bet the FGD also and small bets on various props if the value is there (Cowboy sub?). Would have to structure the bets based on the odds. Thoughts?

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-08-16, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by xagonzx

Hugo de Naranja

Become A Pro!Join Date: 04-14-16
Posts: 966
Betpoints: 710

Message Me

Originally Posted by xagonzx
I think the -3.5 would be worth a shot, depending on the odds. Maybe Scorecards no action? Story MIGHT be able to grind out a 29-28 decision. I don't see Story finishing Cowboy, but can see cowboy finishing him. I can see either winning a close decision.

I think it will be somewhere in the (+150) area. Cowboy Scorecards No Action will probably be SUPER juiced since the consensus is that Story won't finish him. I'd guess in the realm of (-450). The Over 2.5 Rounds (-175) and Fight Goes Distance (-150) are also attractive.

Good points. hmm maybe Cowboy -3.5 (covers wide decision or finish), hedged with Story DEC. Maybe bet the FGD also and small bets on various props if the value is there (Cowboy sub?). Would have to structure the bets based on the odds. Thoughts?

I'm thinking about all the bets you mentioned pretty seriously. Just have to figure out unit allocation.

**ufcfan2016** · 08-08-16, 02:50 PM

anyone betting on cerrone be careful, im already planning on betting on story, stylistic wise its good for story, cerrone always had problems vs pressure fighters and story is that sort of guy to get into cerrone face and grind him up against the cage, hes the bigger man too.

take story at +150 or better.

**PaperTrail07** · 08-08-16, 03:04 PM

Oh I'll post them.....in all honestly I have so many plays its insane lol....the lotto ticket shows really who I like overall....if there is anything over -300...just assume I DID NOT straight bet it......its not like I rally over the favorites either---its just how I saw it going down.....last card I hit the miracle parlay---it was almost all dogs..

$25.00	$1,757.57	$1,782.57	Win	6 Team Parlay
					Win	7/13/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1002 John Lineker -165* vs Michael McDonald
					Win	7/13/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Tony Ferguson -800* vs Landon Vannata
					Win	7/13/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1203 Tim Boetsch +190* vs Josh Samman
					Win	7/13/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1301 Daniel Omielanczuk +170* vs Oleksiy Oliynyk
					Win	7/13/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1401 Keita Nakamura +140* vs Kyle Noke
					Win	7/13/16 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1501 Louis Smolka +110* vs Ben Nguyen

.

Originally posted by Ty$

I want to see your plays for 202. These parlays are addicting it sucks. War Diaz!

**Rich Benjamins** · 08-08-16, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

As a whole. Forum killed this card. Missed an 11 teamer picking an idiot I've never seen fight _gio_faded hit sauce. Otherwise I hit at110:1. Still killed it w cub,temur, gente,mcgee and luckily rod. Nice work fellas

Yep, this forum really did well. I think it was my personal best. Those who like to bet on favorites did well. Likely those same people, myself included, would lose on a card with a lot of upsets and unexpected things happen. You have to be flexible. Or avoid situations that are unpredictable, like Giotti for example. A new, young hotshot UFC fighter against a veteran can be unpredictable.

**PaperTrail07** · 08-08-16, 03:10 PM

Like Diaz as well...simply don't bet MMA vs a guy w zero ground game lol....

**PaperTrail07** · 08-08-16, 03:12 PM

Don't look at "favorites" and "dogs"....just give it an honest---"WHO IS GOING TO WIN THIS"....the lines honestly can mess with your head....also don't bet toooo big until weigh in's....some of these fighters show up looking like shit...I totally agree with your last statement tho....and fell victim to it---don't bet on fighters you know NOTHING about...just pass on it...IMO...

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

Yep, this forum really did well. I think it was my personal best. Those who like to bet on favorites did well. Likely those same people, myself included, would lose on a card with a lot of upsets and unexpected things happen. You have to be flexible. Or avoid situations that are unpredictable, like Giotti for example. A new, young hotshot UFC fighter against a veteran can be unpredictable.

**PaperTrail07** · 08-08-16, 03:13 PM

Glad you cleaned up as well.....Always like to see others doing well also....CONGRATS!

**Rich Benjamins** · 08-08-16, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Don't look at "favorites" and "dogs"....just give it an honest---"WHO IS GOING TO WIN THIS"....the lines honestly can mess with your head....also don't bet toooo big until weigh in's....some of these fighters show up looking like shit...I totally agree with your last statement tho....and fell victim to it---don't bet on fighters you know NOTHING about...just pass on it...IMO...

Exactly, and the lines are often wrong. You have to take in all the info you read and make your own decision on what is correct and what isn't.

**Thrilla** · 08-08-16, 03:56 PM

- UFC featherweight Teruto Ishihara gives advice on how to get the ladies

**Thrilla** · 08-08-16, 07:29 PM

**JIBBBY** · 08-08-16, 09:00 PM

^^^What's with that nose ring? That must have hurt piercing that crap. Ouch!!!

He's picking up fat chicks.. Don Wong needs to relax

**Thrilla** · 08-09-16, 12:20 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

^^^What's with that nose ring? That must have hurt piercing that crap. Ouch!!!

He's picking up fat chicks.. Don Wong needs to relax

Do you see yourself betting on Ishihara in the future? I can't imagine it. Guy is a nutjob & his only motivation is women. Let's hope they make him a bigger favourite in his next fight.

**JIBBBY** · 08-09-16, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by Thrilla

Do you see yourself betting on Ishihara in the future? I can't imagine it. Guy is a nutjob & his only motivation is women. Let's hope they make him a bigger favourite in his next fight.

He impressed me, that might be one Asian dude I might not fade in the future.. Depends on the match ups though as always...

**PaperTrail07** · 08-09-16, 02:09 PM

Agree....he is a brawler....Like the guy....and MOTIVATION is all you need....find it wherever

Originally posted by JIBBBY

He impressed me, that might be one Asian dude I might not fade in the future.. Depends on the match ups though as always...

**Thrilla** · 08-09-16, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

He impressed me, that might be one Asian dude I might not fade in the future.. Depends on the match ups though as always...

Hmmm...I recall he was being pressured back during this fight. Won by a single counter punch. I am not impressed or I have to rewatch and look closer.

**Thrilla** · 08-09-16, 08:16 PM

**PaperTrail07** · 08-10-16, 01:14 PM

This guy gets is

Originally posted by Thrilla

**Ty$** · 08-10-16, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by Thrilla

Hmmm...I recall he was being pressured back during this fight. Won by a single counter punch. I am not impressed or I have to rewatch and look closer.

Pressured? You mean feeling out for 2 mins. Then dropped the Fn hammer. He had no shot.

**Rich Benjamins** · 08-10-16, 05:02 PM

I agree. Ishihara was playing with his food.

Originally posted by Ty$

Pressured? You mean feeling out for 2 mins. Then dropped the Fn hammer. He had no shot.