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Last edited by Thrilla; 07-11-16, 12:30 AM. -
i see value on smolka, need to look at the other fights in more depthComment -
- Tony Ferguson continued his rise up the UFC lightweight rankings with an impressive performance against veteran Gleison Tibau at UFC 184. Ferguson takes on Landon Vannata in the co-main event at Fight Night Sioux Falls Wednesday, July 13 on FS1.
- John Lineker took down Alptekin Ozkilic in the Fight of the Night at UFC Fight Night in Atlantic City back in 2014. Lineker takes on Michael McDonald in the Main Event at Fight Night Sioux Falls on July 13 on FS1.
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The Barbarian is a steal here. Yes he has lost some fights but they were to the top guys.
He was winning against Herman and Leites until he got caught.
I don't see Samman being the guy to beat him.
Huge value in Boetsch.Comment -
I also really like Lauren Murphy. I know the girl she is fighting. Chookagian is taking this fight at 135 cause she can't make 115. She's a tweener. She will be smaller than Murphy and making her Octagon debut. Murphy only loses to the best so far in her career.
Like McDonald too.Comment -
Early leans on McDonald at + money he's had a long layoff but I think his reach could win him this fight , both have huge power and solid chins basically a toss up so almost +160 definite value...
boestch at +200 is solid value as well, he's definitely lost a stop but he has huge power and josh samman is nothing special surprised the lines at high tbh. Probably hit that tonight before line drops
Also would like to parlay noke with something he's at Jackson wink and I seen improvements in his game he's pretty solid , not to impressed with his opponents tape either more of a submission fighter , noke is well rounded and I think he can pick him apart on the feetComment -
Eric Spicely might be a live dog.. He might be able to sub out Sam Alvey or win by decision... Spicely is decent with his wrestling, Jits and RNC's.. He is unbeaten as a pro at 8-0. I've seen him fight and I think he'll probably take down and or grind on Alvey... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Eric-Spicely-63723
He's got a bunch of fights on youtube if ya guys wanna check.. Fighting mostly bums though.. Sam Alvey is kind of a bum himself though unless you stand in front of him and bang.. Eric Spicely won't stand and bang with Sam Alvey as he'll be in his grill trying to take him down..
I'm not sure Alvey has the TD defense to stop Spicely.. That's the big question going in?????
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Fading Boestch as he's all but washed up.. He'll probably get KO'd..
John Liniker could very well sub out McDonald late in the fight.. Looking at the 2 you wanna play McDonald though, he's skilled.. Lineker is the shorter man, hits hard and tough to knock out or finish.. Lineker has alot of sub wins on his record and McDonalds weakness has been his submission defense.. Tough fight to pick IMO..
Noke has a chance for sure...Comment -
With those odds only need 1 to come through I like my chances with a boestch or McDonald win to happy , both easily could win but I like at least one to get the nod
boetsch hasn't impressed me much lately but josh samman is an average fighter tbh even a declining boetsch can grind this out , if he loses his careers definitely done
McDonald has only lost 3 times , 2 subs but those we're to faber who has the nastiest guilittoine choke I ever seen , plus he was rocked then got choked in that fight , barao was in his prime when he subbed him to both guys better then lineker at that point ... Lineker is a beast love his exciting style but all he does is wing punches and hope one connects McDonald's a smart fighter and could definitely keep this on the outside and get a win dude was a hot prospect for the title before succumbing to injuries .
also Eric spicely I watched on tuf , guy may have the worst striking ive ever watched legitmately lol, alvey should knock him out but he always come out super slow which never benefits him , if he can keep this standing though alvey takes this fight easily don't see spicely sticking around in the UFC long tbhComment -
Sam Alvey looked like garbage against pretty boy Elias, he all but stopped fighting after round 1.. That might have been the most boring fight I have ever seen and I had money on Elias as well and won..
Hey but certainly Sammy can and probably will KO Spicely if the fight stays standing and at distance for any long length of time...
Definitely waiting for props to come out...Comment -
Props come out go alvey Ko/tko then spicely sub if you really like him .. Only move he has is a diving leg lock and some chokes his takedowns are absolute garbage if alvey loses to him that would be terrible. Elias is actually a decent fighter so that loss didn't surprise me tbh , alvey should cruise here I see him looking good in this oneComment -
I like Lineker by late finish or decision. He throws a ton of SS/min and his cardio has improved.Comment -
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Only problem is McDonald probably won't sit and trade with Lineker, could be a point contest with McDonald winning by decision.. McDonald is longer, moves well and is pretty athletic... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Michael-McDonald-30297
I'm probably gonna look for McDonald by decision because it's damn hard to finish John Lineker.. Then probably look to hedge with Lineker ITD or by sub... The numbers have to make sense though to hedge... McDonald does finish people though with his striking when he smells blood.. Kid is talented for sure.. Like I said it's a tough fight to call and bet on IMO... I'll probably play it small..
If JL hits him like this it could be lights out..
Last edited by JIBBBY; 07-10-16, 11:32 PM.Comment -
MMA MANIA event write ups and predictions...
170 lbs.: Kyle Noke vs. Keita Nakamura
Australia’s Kyle Noke (22-8-1) earned a much-needed win in Nov. 2015 with a cringe-inducing body kick knockout of Peter Sobotta, earning a "Performance of the Night" bonus in the process. He squared off with Alex Morono two months later and appeared to do enough to earn the win, only to come out on the wrong end of a split decision.
He has knocked out and submitted eight opponents apiece.
Nearly nine years after his original Octagon debut, Keita Nakamura (31-7-2) finally earned his first win in the promotion with a comeback submission of Li Jiangling at Saitama Super Arena. He returned to action in February, losing a decision to top prospect Tom Breese in the latter’s native England.
"K-Taro" will give up two inches of height to the 6’1" Noke.
Two underperformers with occasional flashes of excellence -- the bane of the would-be oracle! Noke’s got some real pop in his hands and generally decent wrestling, while "K-Taro" is beastly on the mat but struggles with consistent takedowns.
That said, Nakamura did manage to repeatedly take down a big, powerful wrestler in Breese and hasn’t been knocked out in eight years. Noke’s own issues with the ground game have me leaning toward the Japanese veteran, whose Judo credentials ought to carry him to either a decision or late submission.
Prediction: Nakamura via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Scott Holtzman vs. Cody Pfister
Scott Holtzman (8-1) announced his arrival in UFC's Lightweight division by beating the stuffing out of Anthony Christodoulou before tapping him with a rear-naked choke. He then fought Drew Dober, who ground his way to a decision victory at UFC 195.
"Hot Sauce" has scored three knockouts and two submissions as a professional.
The eight-fight unbeaten streak for Cody Pfister (12-5-1) came to an end in his short-notice Octagon debut, a submission loss to prospect James Moontasri. He proceeded to dispatch Yosdenis Cedeno the subsequent July and arguably took a round from Sage Northcutt before tapping to a guillotine choke.
"The Pfist" has lost just twice since 2011.
As generally mediocre as Pfister is, he presents pretty much the same issues that Holtzman struggled with against Drew Dober: A tremendous chin and a capable wrestling game. Pfister’s never been stopped by strikes despite facing the likes of Tim Means and Moontasri, a trend I don’t imagine Holtzman shaking despite some decent hands.
Without a consistent, powerful takedown game of his own to exploit Pfister’s grappling deficiencies, Holtzman’s in for a long night. Though it wouldn’t surprise me terribly much to see the MMA Lab show some real improvement, Pfister’s experience and durability carry the day to a decision win.
Prediction: Pfister via unanimous decision
185 lbs.: Devin Clark vs. Alex Nicholson
Devin Clark (6-0) entered his RFA Light Heavyweight title fight with some pressure on him, as Dana White and the "Lookin’ for a Fight" crew were in attendance. Thankfully for "Brown Bear," he rose to the challenge and scored an injury stoppage after two rounds.
Three of his four stoppages have come by knockout.
With six finishes in under seven minutes each, Alex Nicholson (6-2) stepped into his February Octagon debut against Misha Cirkunov as a young man to watch in the stagnant division. Unfortunately for "The Spartan," he had few answers for his opponent’s grappling and ultimately tapped to a jaw-breaking neck crank in the second.
He stands four inches taller than Clark at 6’4."
Both of these guys have quite a bit of developing to do, but it looks as though Clark’s wrestling may carry the day. Nicholson is terribly reckless on the feet and his grappling is quite underwhelming. He repeatedly leaves himself open for takedowns, which Cirkunov exploited to great effect.
Clark isn’t a technical marvel himself, but he should find success on the ground. Putting aside the X-factor of this being each man’s middleweight debut, expect him to exploit Nicholson’s rawness on the way to a decision win.
Prediction: Clark via unanimous decision
265 lbs.: Oleksiy Oliynyk vs. Daniel Omielanczuk
The Ukraine-born Oleksiy Oliynyk (50-9-1) finally made his UFC debut in 2014 after 17 years in the game, dispatching Anthony Hamilton in said bout before lamping Jared Rosholt with one punch. He has struggled since with knee injuries that have kept him out of action since November of that year.
Forty of his 50 wins have come by submission.
Daniel Omielanczuk (18-5-1) got off to a strong start in his UFC career with a one-punch knockout of Nandor Guelmino, but couldn’t overcome wrestlers Jared Rosholt and Anthony Hamilton in subsequent bouts. The Pole has since rebounded with a knockout of Chris de la Rocha and a technical decision over gargantuan Syrian Jarjis Danho.
He is six years younger than his opponent at 33.
Oliynyk’s pretty much the elder statesman of the Heavyweight division, both in terms of experience and actual age. He’s thus far weathered the wear-and-tear, but he’s been out of the cage for nearly two years and there’s no telling how well his knees will hold up.
Omielanczuk isn’t outstanding at anything, but he’s got a good punch, decent cardio and is plenty strong. Though I’ll be rooting for "The BkofAma Constrictor" and am aware that he stopped both men who defeated the Pole, he’s just a little too long in the tooth at this point. Omielanczuk cracks him late for the Russian’s fifth career (technical) knockout loss.
Prediction: Omielanczuk via second-round technical knockout
135 lbs.: Rani Yahya vs. Matthew Lopez
Rani Yahya (21-8) -- a long-time World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) competitor -- has used his grappling to great effect in UFC, going 5-1 (1 NC) since a loss to Chad Mendes. His last bout saw him eke out a decision over Japanese veteran Masanori Kanehara in San Diego.
The Brazilian has tapped 16 opponents overall.
Matthew Lopez (8-0) -- a former high school wrestling standout and current coach at Reign MMA -- has torn through the regional circuit since turning pro in 2013. His last time out, he battered Eli Finn into submission at an RFA show highlighted by Dana White’s "Lookin’ for a Fight" for his seventh first-round finish.
Four of his wins have come by submission, one of them to strikes.
Yahya’s a frustrating man to pick in a fight -- he’s done a great job of mirroring Demian Maia’s renaissance despite poor overall wrestling, but he’s struggled to finish in recent years and is basically dead on his feet by the third round. Mizuto Hirota nearly un-did two rounds of dominance in their fight and Kanehara arguably deserved the win against the Brazilian.
That said, Lopez appears rather scramble-happy, which plays directly into Yahya’s hands. In addition, his last opponent repeatedly managed to get into the clinch with him. I expect Yahya to again scramble his way into dominant positions, locking up the rear-naked choke sometime in the first.
Prediction: Yahya via first-round submission
115 lbs.: Cortney Casey vs. Cristina Stanciu
Though Cortney Casey (4-3) is winless (0-2) in UFC, she’s certainly given fans their money’s worth with two straight "Fight of the Night" bonuses. "Cast-Iron" duked it out with Joanne Calderwood last July, then went tooth-and-nail with Seo Hee Ham four months later in Seoul.
Her four wins include two submissions and two knockouts, all in the first round.
Cristina Stanciu (5-1), representing Romania, debuted this past April against Ukrainian standout Maryna Moroz in Zagreb, Croatia. Though she managed to take Moroz the distance for just the second time in the latter’s career, Stanciu ultimately lost the fight on all three scorecards.
She stands two inches taller than Casey at 5’4."
Being durable and aggressive can only take one so far and, for Casey, it’s not far enough. Stanciu packs some heat in her hands to complement an opportunistic submission game, both of which should prove extremely effective against her plodding foe.
Stanciu has the edge wherever the fight goes, and even though Casey might be able to take her punches, she’s outgunned on the mat. Stanciu picks up another first-round submission.
Prediction: Stanciu via first-round submission
185 lbs.: Sam Alvey vs. Eric Spicely
A disappointing Octagon debut against Tom Watson gave way to three straight first-round knockouts for Sam Alvey (26-8), one of which earned him a "Performance of the Night" bonus. He has since been knocked out himself by Derek Brunson and most recently underperformed badly against Elias Theodorou.
He has knocked out 17 opponents overall, nine of his last 10 wins coming inside the distance.
Eric Spicely (8-0) -- Team Claudia Gadelha’s second Light Heavyweight pick -- took home a decision win over Elias Urbina to reach the semifinals. Once there, he faced teammate and friend Andrew Sanchez, who knocked Spicely out in the first round.
He has submitted four opponents and knocked out another two.
Alvey unquestionably has the tools to win this fight in dominant fashion. He’s got a considerable edge in punching power and his takedown defense is generally stout. That said, it’s damn hard to overlook that godawful performance in the Theodorou fight. He seems to suffer from the same issue the late Ryan Jimmo did in that he’s a counterpuncher without the skills to create opportunities of his own. If his opponent doesn’t give him an opening, he won’t throw.
Again, though, the striking edge is there and it’s just a bit too much for me to discount. Barring a repeat of his recent debacle, Alvey thumps him sometime in the first.
Prediction: Alvey via first-round knockout
135 lbs.: Lauren Murphy vs. Katlyn Chookagian
Lauren Murphy (9-2) entered UFC with an unbeaten record and the Invicta Bantamweight championship, only to drop consecutive close fights with Sara McMann and Liz Carmouche in her first two promotional appearance. She finally earned her first UFC win by pounding out Kelly Faszholz in the waning seconds of their February clash.
She has stopped seven opponents via technical knockout.
The first professional fight for Katlyn Chookagian (7-0) came on the heels of a perfect (7-0) amateur run that included four wins via armbar. She’s kept that unbeaten streak alive in the pros and earned the CFFC Flyweight title in the process.
She will have a one-inch height advantage on fight night.
The deciding factor here might wind up being size; Chookagian is a career flyweight, while Murphy’s a powerhouse of a 135er. Though the CFFC champ did fight at a 130-pound catchweight recently, she’s never fought at the bantamweight limit.
Considering Murphy’s grinding prowess and Chookagian’s tendency to get tied up, that could prove costly.
Chookagian is a fairly crisp striker with sneaky knees in the inside but I just can’t see her keeping Murphy off of her for any extended length of time. Murphy wears her down before ultimately stopping her late with an accumulation of punches.
Prediction: Murphy by third-round technical knockoutComment -
Basic props are outComment -
Lineker ITD is (-125). What about fight goes to decision (+260)?Only problem is McDonald probably won't sit and trade with Lineker, could be a point contest with McDonald winning by decision.. McDonald is longer, moves well and is pretty athletic... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Michael-McDonald-30297
I'm probably gonna look for McDonald by decision because it's damn hard to finish John Lineker.. Then probably look to hedge with Lineker ITD or by sub... The numbers have to make sense though to hedge... McDonald does finish people though with his striking when he smells blood.. Kid is talented for sure.. Like I said it's a tough fight to call and bet on IMO... I'll probably play it small..
If JL hits him like this it could be lights out..
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So Omielanczuk gets grapple ****** by the only 2 wrestlers he faced in the UFC and now faces a legendary one (albeit old and coming off a long injury layoff) and people want to bet him?
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I think Oleinik Decision (+335) has valueComment -
I'd say if ya like Lineker in this one ITD is the way to bet it.. JL could get the ko or sub if he is to win..Don't think he'll win a decision though if it goes that far..
I personally didn't like any of the Lineker prop odds to hedge but I still might take a look at the KO prop when that comes out.. So for now I'm just playing McDonald straight and hoping that works out at the +150.. I might regret it though, Lineker is no joke..
I'm just liking McDonald with his length, speed and athleticism and thinking it's worth the shot.. He's a fairly dynamic fighter..
I'm still worried about him catching one on the chin in this fight and getting rocked and or dropped.. He kinda leaves his chin out there at times and can be wreckless with his striking.. That's not a smart thing to do when fighting John Lineker..
JL has got serious pop in his punches.. Very solid with his ground as well.. McDonald better fight smart and be on his game in this one...
I'll gamble on the dog...
Last edited by JIBBBY; 07-12-16, 01:06 AM.Comment -
Josh Samman on fighting Tim Boetsch....http://www.tallahassee.com/story/spo...mman/86866744/Comment -
Let me start by stating that I have a bias towards Lineker, he's probably my favorite fighter.I'd say if ya like Lineker in this one ITD is the way to bet it.. JL could get the ko or sub if he is to win..Don't think he'll win a decision though if it goes that far..
I personally didn't like any of the Lineker prop odds to hedge but I still might take a look at the KO prop when that comes out.. So for now I'm just playing McDonald straight and hoping that works out at the +150.. I might regret it though, Lineker is no joke..
I'm just liking McDonald with his length, speed and athleticism and thinking it's worth the shot.. He's a fairly dynamic fighter..
I'm still worried about him catching one on the chin in this fight and getting rocked and or dropped.. He kinda leaves his chin out there at times and can be wreckless with his striking.. That's not a smart thing to do when fighting John Lineker..
JL has got serious pop in his punches.. Very solid with his ground as well.. McDonald better fight smart and be on his game in this one...
I'll gamble on the dog...
However, I gotta disagree here from a statistical standpoint. JL out lands pretty much every opponent he fights regardless of whether they intend to engage in the pocket or not. For instance, Rob Font wanted to stick-and-move to try to outpoint Lineker. JL stalked him and threw vicious shots throughout that fight, winning a wide Unanimous Decision. In the third round of that bout and a few previous ones, he appeared fresh and has had the stamina to finish opponents in later rounds. I think BW is his ideal division. Lineker has good subs and obviously ridiculous power.
MacDonald is a solid fighter and he will be a test for Lineker. He has KO power and some slick submission offense, but I don't think JL is a favorable matchup for him at all. The game plan to beating Lineker is using takedowns and outstanding top control to hold him down or catching him with a slick submission in transition.
MacDonald does not pursue many takedowns and JL's TDD has improved since the Bagautinov fight awhile back. Moreover, he is extremely difficult to hold down.
In addition to outlanding opponents on the feet, Lineker throws with bad intentions and has an iron chin.
Since it's unlikely that MacDonald will wrestle and control JL, or outpoint him in a striking match. I think his best path to victory is to catch some kind of quick sub from his back or use his hard-hitting power to land a KO blow. Depending on the odds for these, I may hedge but rn I'm thinking Lineker ML, (hit for small at -150, might add when the line drops) Decision (+595) and then R3/4/5 props when they come outLast edited by Hugo de Naranja; 07-12-16, 03:48 AM.Comment -
i would not bet that main event, the line looks right, there other fights to look at..if you were to go with one i would personally be on the + money with McDonald, the guy is more well rounded. but JL power cant be ignored beside the knockout i dont see any other threat to mcdonald.Comment -
- Michael McDonald can't wait to end his fight with John Lineker so he can watch it as a fan.
- Michael McDonald vs Masanori Kanehara (UFC195 2016.01.02)
<iframe src="http://new.vk.com/video_ext.php?oid=281406660&id=171743460 &hash=522f41b6e26d33a1&hd=1" width="607" height="360" frameborder="0"allowfullscreen></iframe>
- Michael McDonald vs Miguel Torres (UFC145 2012.04.21)
Last edited by Thrilla; 07-12-16, 09:28 PM.Comment -
Yep McDonald vs Lineker is a damn tough fight to nail down..
Lineker very well can rock McDonald standing then take the back and get the choke out, McDonald can maybe light up Lineker standing and at distance, mix in take downs while winning on points round to round is a possibility as well.. The height and reach difference could play a factor as well.
Just a good fight matchup period and looking forward to seeing how it plays out!!!Comment
UFC Fight Night 91 McDonald vs Lineker ( Wed.Jul. 13, 2016)
